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Data points to Ethereum price making a short-term rally to the $3.2K level

August 6, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Data points to Ethereum price making a short-term rally to the .2K level

Coin Telegraph

ETH’s onchain and derivatives data are looking stronger even as macroeconomic data remains concerning.

Ether (ETH) price experienced a sharp 33.9% decline from $3,203 on Aug. 2 to $2,188 on Aug. 5, reaching its lowest level in over seven months. This crash followed a broader market correction in the crypto sector. However, with Ether's price rebounding by 23.7% from its Aug. 5 low in less than 36 hours, traders are now questioning whether ETH can reclaim the $3,000 mark.

To understand whether this bounce from the Aug. 5 lows is sustainable, it's essential to analyze the factors that triggered the initial price drop. Some analysts suggest that the Japanese stock market initiated the sell-off after the Nikkei 225 suffered intraday losses of 13% on Aug. 5. This movement followed the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years on July 31.

Despite the Nikkei 225 closing only 4.6% down on Aug. 5, the effects were felt across all markets. The S&P 500 index dropped 3%, and gold fell 2.7% from its Aug. 5 high to $2,477. Ether's decline was more pronounced due to the higher volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency sector and the excessive leverage used by ETH bulls. This disparity also explains how Ether managed to reclaim the $2,500 level on Aug. 6.

Bitcoin bulls were obliterated, but is it time to catch the falling knife?

August 5, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Call

Bitcoin derivatives show traders’ morale is low, weakening the odds of a 20% rise from the $49,320 BTC bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed 19% on Aug. 5, reaching its lowest level in almost six months at $49,320. The sell-off caused the Bitcoin futures premium, considered the best proxy for derivatives traders’ optimism, to hit its lowest levels in three months. Traders are now debating whether Bitcoin prices below $53,000 represent a golden opportunity or if the risk of another drop below $47,000 is too high.

To gauge the impact of the recent price crash, one should begin by analyzing the Bitcoin futures markets. Unlike perpetual contracts, which typically settle every eight hours, BTC monthly futures carry an embedded cost due to their longer settlement period. Sellers generally demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium relative to regular Bitcoin spot markets to compensate for this issue. In summary, premiums below 5% signal pessimism.

The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) fell to 5.5% on Aug. 5, its lowest level in three months, a sharp drop from the previous week when the indicator peaked at 12%. More notably, when the futures premium bottomed at 5% on May 2, it followed a 15% weekly Bitcoin price decline from $66,600 to $56,200. In May, Bitcoin’s price rebounded by 13% in the three days following the crash, but the current situation differs significantly.

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Bitcoin weekly funding rate reflects investor caution, yet BTC price pushes higher

July 15, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bullish

Bitcoin trades above $63,000 but the futures weekly funding rate shows pro traders are cautious.

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged 9.7% from July 13 to July 15, pushing it to around $63,500. This rally managed to reverse the losses from the previous nine days, yet the $65,000 resistance level remained unbroken for four consecutive weeks. Some traders attribute this recovery to speculation that China may lift its long-standing ban on Bitcoin. However, no official statement from the Chinese government has confirmed such rumors.

Despite the positive outlook, which includes a leading US presidential candidate expressing support for Bitcoin, BTC derivatives do not reflect the same enthusiasm. Market participants are now wondering if there is sufficient demand to break the $65,000 barrier and whether the weekend gains can be sustained.

Analysts have firmly denied the rumors, stating that China is unlikely to allow its citizens to freely trade Bitcoin using the local Renminbi currency. Mikko Ohtamaa, the co-founder of algorithmic investment protocol Trading Strategy, emphasized that a significant shift in China's stance on Bitcoin would conflict with the government's political agenda to curb "capital flight". Additionally, experts note that Chinese investors are currently prohibited from investing in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong, despite its close ties with mainland China.

Bitcoin Hits New Low Since February, Options Market Stays Optimistic

July 4, 2024 Bitcoin.com

liquidation