Over 50,000 Traders Liquidated as Bitcoin Price Surges Past $66,000 Amid Bullish Run-Up

May 15, 2024 Bitcoin.com

Is Bitcoin’s negative futures funding rate a sign of an upcoming BTC price crash?

April 18, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin derivatives data points to traders’ $50K BTC price target

December 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin derivatives data points to traders' K BTC price target</div>

Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls expectations of $50,000 and higher remain feasible according to BTC futures and options markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to trade below its 2023 high, a sign that investors may have underestimated the strength of the $44,000 resistance. Even as BTC price trades below $42,000, it doesn't necessarily mean that reaching $50,000 and beyond is no longer possible. In fact, quite the opposite seems more likely to occur. Looking at Bitcoin derivatives metrics, it is clear that traders ignored the 6.9% drop and remained optimistic. However, is this optimism enough to justify further gains?

The $127 million liquidation of leveraged long Bitcoin futures on Dec. 11 may seem significant in absolute terms, but it represents less than 1% of the total open interest – the value of all outstanding contracts. Nevertheless, it's undeniable that the liquidation engine triggered a 7% correction in less than 20 minutes.

On one hand, one could argue that derivatives markets played a crucial role in the recent negative price movement. However, this analysis overlooks the fact that after hitting a low of $40,200 on Dec. 11, Bitcoin's price increased by 4.2% in the following six trading hours. In essence, the impact of forceful liquidation orders had dissipated long ago, disproving the notion of a crash solely driven by futures markets.

$300M crypto long liquidations — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

December 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price rally to $42K driven by spot volumes, not BTC futures liquidations

December 4, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price rally to K driven by spot volumes, not BTC futures liquidations

basis

Bitcoin futures data counters the assumption that BTC’s rally to $42,000 was primarily propelled by shorts liquidations. What is next for BTC?

In the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a whopping 14.5% surge, hitting a 20-month high at $41,130 by Dec.

BTC liquidation map

Enough shorts to run it up all the way to $45-46k pic.twitter.com/7O2zYD4j8Q
— Nik Algo (@nik_algo) December 4, 2023

The impact of the recent liquidations in Bitcoin futures markets

While the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trades USD-settled contracts for Bitcoin futures, where no physical Bitcoin changes hands, these futures markets undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping spot prices.

In the same seven-day period, a mere $200 million worth of BTC futures shorts were liquidated, representing only 1% of the total outstanding contracts.

*Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest and volume, USD. Source: Coinglass*

Even when focusing solely on the CME, which is known for potential trading volume inflation, its daily volume of $2.67 billion should have readily absorbed a $100 million 24-hour liquidation.

$BTC Next Possible Plan

A Quick Wick to 42k-42.5k To Hunt BSL Of Shorts then A Quick Flushout of the Long's & We Might see $BTC Pullback down to 39k-38.5k

Retracement to 39k-38.5k Will be good Buying Opportunity For the Last Leg upto 45k-47k Before ETF Approval pic.twitter.com/yc7k0hOBpZ
— VeLLa Crypto (@VellaCryptoX) December 4, 2023

One could attempt to gauge the extent of liquidations at different price levels using tape reading techniques.

Bitcoin price chases after $35K as BTC derivatives data signals fresh inflow

October 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price chases after K as BTC derivatives data signals fresh inflow

bnb

Bitcoin options and futures data suggests the current BTC price movement could have longevity.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action is the talk of the town this week and based on the current sentiment expressed by market participants on social media, one could almost assume that the long-awaited bull market has started.

As Bitcoin's price rallied by 16.1% between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24, bearish traders using futures contracts found themselves liquidated to the tune of $230 million. One data point that stands out is the change in Bitcoin's open interest, a metric reflecting the total number of futures contracts in play.

The evidence suggests that Bitcoin shorts were taken by surprise on Oct. 22 but they were not employing excessive leverage.

*Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass*

During the rally, BTC futures open interest increased from $13.1 billion to $14 billion. This differs from August 17, when Bitcoin's price dropped by 9.2% in just 36 hours. That sudden movement caused $416 million in long liquidations, despite the lower percentage-size price move. At the time, Bitcoin's futures open interest decreased from $12 billion to $11.3 billion.

Data seems to corroborate the gamma squeeze theory that is circulating, which implies that market makers had their stop losses "chased."

The $BTC "god candle" lines up with where dealers got blown out of short positioning ($32k-$33k).

This was a gamma squeeze, not organic. pic.twitter.com/NXM8z8mNDa
— Not Tiger Global (@NotChaseColeman) October 24, 2023

Bitcoin personality NotChaseColeman explained on X social network (formerly Twitter), that arbitrage desks were likely forced to hedge short positions after Bitcoin broke above $32,000, triggering the rally to $35,195.

The most significant issue with the short squeeze theory is the increase in BTC futures open interest. This indicates that even if there were relevant liquidations, the demand for new leveraged positions outpaced the forced closures.

Did Changpeng Zhao and BNB play a role in Bitcoin's price action?

Another interesting theory from user M4573RCH on X social network claims that Changpeng "CZ" Zhao used BNB as collateral for margin on Venus Protocol, a decentralized finance (DeFi) application after being forced to sell Bitcoin to "shore up" the price of BNB token.

maybe im nuts but what we just saw is

cz has BNB collateral on Venus

bnb dumping

cz sells btc to shore up bnb

cz unwinds loans and pays back debt on Venus

bnb on venus no longet vulnerable to liquidation

cz buys back btc with bnb to rebalance his btc position@cz_binance… pic.twitter.com/NHulDnacB3
— ⚡️ (@M4573RCH) October 25, 2023

According to M4573RCH's theory, after a successful intervention, CZ would have paid back the interest on Venus Protocol and bought back Bitcoin using BNB to "rebalance" the position.

Notably, the BNB supply on the platform exceeds 1.2 million tokens, worth $278 million. Thus, assuming that 50% of the position is controlled by a single entity, that's enough to create a $695 million long position using 5x leverage on Bitcoin futures.

Of course, one will never be able to confirm or dismiss speculations such as the Venus-BNB manipulation or the "gamma squeeze" in Bitcoin derivatives. Both theories make sense, but it is impossible to assert the entities involved or the rationale behind the timing.

The increase in BTC futures open interest indicates that new leveraged positions have entered the space. The movement could have been driven by news that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF request was listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), even though this event does not increase the odds of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin derivatives point to a healthy bull run and room for further gains

To understand how professional traders are positioned after the surprise rally, one should analyze the BTC derivatives metrics. Normally, Bitcoin monthly futures trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium compared to spot markets, indicating that sellers demand additional money to postpone settlement.

*Bitcoin 1-month futures premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The Bitcoin futures premium reached 9.5% on Oct. 24, marking the highest level in over a year. More notably, it broke above the 5% neutral threshold on Oct. 23, putting an end to a 9-week period dominated by bearish sentiment and low demand for leveraged long positions.

To assess whether the break above $34,000 has led to excessive optimism, traders should examine the Bitcoin options markets. When traders anticipate a drop in Bitcoin's price, the delta 25% skew tends to rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically see it dip below negative 7%.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The Bitcoin options' 25% delta skew shifted from neutral to bullish on Oct. 19 and continued in this direction until it reached -18% on Oct. 22. This signaled extreme optimism, with put (sell) options trading at a discount. The current -7% level suggests a somewhat balanced demand between call (buy) and put options.

Whatever triggered the surprise price rally prompted professional traders to move away from a period characterized by pessimism. However, it wasn't enough to justify excessive pricing for call options, which is a positive sign. Furthermore, there is no indication of excessive leverage from buyers, as the futures premium remains at a modest 8%.

Despite the ongoing speculation regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, there is enough evidence to support a healthy influx of funds, justifying a rally beyond the $35,000 mark.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin price drops its early week gains — Here is why

October 3, 2023 Coin Telegraph

CME

Bitcoin price gave up its recent gains as concerning signals from the US economy continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6% from Oct. 1 to Oct. 2 but after failing to break the $28,500 resistance, the price dropped by 4.5% on the same day. This decline happened because of the disappointing performance of Ether (ETH) futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that were launched on Oct. 2 and concerns about an upcoming economic downturn.

*Bitcoin price index, USD. Source: TradingView*

This correction in Bitcoin's price on Oct. 3 marks 47 days since Bitcoin last closed above $28,000 and has led to the liquidation of $22 million worth of long leverage futures contracts. But before discussing the events affecting Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, let's attempt to understand how the traditional finance industry has affected investor confidence.

The overheated US economy could lead to more Fed action

Investors have heightened their expectations of further contractionary measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve following the release of the latest U.S. labor market data on Oct. 3, revealing that there were 9.6 million job openings at the end of August, up from 8.9 million in July.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell had indicated during a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August that "evidence suggesting that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could necessitate a monetary policy response."

Consequently, traders are now pricing in a 30% chance that the Fed will raise rates at their November meeting, compared to 16% in the previous week, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

The Ether futures ETFs launch falls short

On Oct. 2, the market welcomed nine new ETF products expressly designed to mirror the performance of futures contracts linked to Ether. However, these products saw trading volumes of under $2 million during the first trading day, as of midday Eastern Time. Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, noted that the trading volumes fell short of expectations.

*Ethereum futures-based ETF volumes on Oct. 2, USD. Source: K33 Research / @VetleLunde*

On the debut day, the trading volume for Ether ETFs significantly lagged behind the remarkable $1 billion launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF. It's worth noting that the Bitcoin futures-linked ETF was introduced in October 2021 during a flourishing cryptocurrency market.

This occurrence may have dampened investors' outlook on the potential inflow after an eventual Bitcoin spot ETF. Still, there remains uncertainty surrounding the probability and timing of these approvals by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Regulatory pressure mounts as Binance faces a class-action lawsuit

On Oct. 2, a class-action lawsuit was filed against Binance.US and its CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao in the District Court of Northern California. The lawsuit alleges unfair competition aimed at monopolizing the cryptocurrency market by harming its competitor, the now-defunct exchange FTX.

The plaintiffs claim that CZ's statements on social media were false and misleading, particularly since Binance had previously sold its FTT token holdings before the announcement on Nov. 6, 2022. The lawsuit asserts that CZ's intention was to drive down the price of the FTT token.

The criminal case against Sam Bankman-Fried will begin on Oct. 4 in New York. Despite CZ's denial of unfair competition allegations, speculation within the crypto community continues to circulate regarding this matter.

BTC’s correlation to traditional markets seems higher than anticipated

Bitcoin's price decline on Oct. 3 appears to reflect concerns about an impending economic downturn and the potential Federal Reserve's monetary policy response. Furthermore, it demonstrated how closely cryptocurrency markets are tied to macroeconomic factors.

Exaggerated expectations for the cryptocurrency ETFs also signal that the $28,000 level might not be the consensus for investors given the regulatory pressures and legal challenges, such as the class-action lawsuit against Binance, which underscore the ongoing risks in the space.

Here’s how Bitcoin investors can trade the tension surrounding a U.S. government shutdown

October 3, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Budget

Rumors of a US government shutdown impact asset prices, including Bitcoin. Here’s how BTC options traders can capitalize on the 45 day funding deadline.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bull run towards $28,000 on Oct. 1 was partially fueled by the uncertainty regarding the United States debt limit. However, the U.S. President Joe Biden signed the spending bill just hours before the Sept. 30 deadline, avoiding a government shutdown.

Investors now question if the momentum remains favorable for cryptocurrencies given that the worst-case political-economic scenario is no longer on the table. However, it is worth noting that this bill merely provides extra funding for the next 45 days, giving more time for the House and Senate to work on their funding plans for 2024.

At first glance, it might be tempting for investors to use futures contracts to go long on Bitcoin. However, there's a significant risk of getting liquidated if the price suddenly drops, and it's impossible to predict whether a successful budget discussion down the road will benefit cryptocurrencies.

With the current extension in place, now, lawmakers need to find a solution before Nov. 17. According to Margaret Spellings, the President and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center:

"We can't continue postponing our fiscal health and negotiating on the brink of government shutdowns and debt defaults."

There's no doubt that, despite narrowly avoiding a crisis, the overall risk of an economic recession remains. The U.S. Federal Reserve is grappling with persistent inflation and rising energy prices, factors that have driven the S&P 500 to its lowest point in 110 days and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since October 2007.

Additionally, oil prices have surged to $90, marking a 27.5% gain in just three months. This upward pressure on inflation is expected to further constrain economic activity.

On Sept. 27, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates have been raised sufficiently to combat this price growth.

Bitcoin’s initial reaction does not guarantee a bullish momentum

Amid all this turmoil, Bitcoin has increased in value, breaking through the $28,000 resistance on Oct. 2. This performance prompted investors to anticipate heightened volatility for the cryptocurrency as the upcoming debt ceiling decision approaches.

Professional traders will avoid directional risk given the uncertain outcome of the political debate and opt for the reverse (short) iron butterfly, a limited-risk, limited-profit trading strategy.

*Profit/Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The prices mentioned were accurate as of Oct. 2, with Bitcoin trading at $28,326. All options listed expire on Oct. 27, but this strategy can also be adapted for different time frames. It's essential to remember that options have a set expiry date, meaning that the price increase must occur during the defined period.

The recommended neutral-market strategy involves selling 5.4 contracts of $26,000 put options while simultaneously selling 5.4 call options with a $30,000 strike. To complete the trade, one should buy 5.8 contracts of $28,000 call options and an additional 5 contracts of the $28,000 put options.

While a call option grants the buyer the right to acquire an asset, the contract seller assumes a potential negative exposure. To fully shield against market fluctuations, an investor must deposit 0.253 BTC (approximately $7,170), representing the maximum potential loss.

Conviction in volatility is essential, as the risk-reward is reversed

For this investor to profit, Bitcoin's price must be below $26,630 on Oct. 27 (a decrease of 6%) or above $29,280 (an increase of 3.4%). In essence, the trade offers a potentially substantial profit zone, but losses are 90% higher than potential gains if Bitcoin remains stagnant.

The maximum payout is 0.133 BTC (roughly $3,770). However, if a trader believes that volatility is imminent, a 6% movement within 24 days appears achievable.

It's important to note that investors have the option to reverse the operation before the options expire, preferably after a substantial Bitcoin price movement. To do this, they should repurchase the two options they had initially sold and sell the two options they had originally bought.

Crypto lender BlockFi gets court nod to repay customers

September 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Blockfi

The approval is seen as a milestone moment for BlockFi's over 100,000 creditors, who have been long awaiting repayment.

The customers of bankrupt cryptocurrency lending platform BlockFi are one step closer to being paid out after a United States Bankruptcy Court in New Jersey approved its liquidation plan.

Bankruptcy Judge Michael A. Kaplan approved BlockFi's third amended Chapter 11 plan in a Sept. 26 court hearing, a filing on the same day shows.

*Sept. 26 court filing in the bankruptcy case of BlockFi. Source: Kroll*

The amount of repayment received by BlockFi's unsecured creditors will largely depend on whether BlockFi succeeds in its legal battle against FTX and other bankrupt cryptocurrency firms.

BlockFi's liquidation plan was approved after the firm settled a long-fought dispute with the creditors committee over the company’s senior management.

The now bankrupt lending platform blamed FTX's collapse for its own failure despite the creditor's committee citing concerns with BlockFi's relationship with FTX and its former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

Estimates show BlockFi owes up to $10 billion to over 100,000 creditors, including $1 billion to its three largest creditors and $220 million to bankrupt crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Magazine: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

Bitcoin price holds $26K as derivatives data hints at end of volatility spike

August 21, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price holds K as derivatives data hints at end of volatility spike

basis

BTC futures and options data show pro traders’ sentiment was not impacted despite last week’s 11.4% correction.

In the past few months, Bitcoin traders had grown used to less volatility, but historically, it’s not uncommon for the cryptocurrency to see price swings of 10% in just two or three days. The recent 11.4% correction from $29,340 to $25,980 between Aug. 15 and Aug. 18 took many by surprise and led to the largest liquidation since the FTX collapse in November 2022. But the question remains: Was this correction significant in terms of the market structure?

Certain experts point to reduced liquidity as the reason for the recent spikes in volatility, but is this truly the case?

BTC surged 70%+ in 2023, yet the "Alameda gap" - liquidity dip post FTX and Alameda Research collapse - remains, supported by low volatility.

Read full analysis here: https://t.co/kVslgLQtpL pic.twitter.com/g8Ac7udBl7
— Kaiko (@KaikoData) August 17, 2023

As indicated by the Kaiko Data chart, the decline of 2% in the Bitcoin (BTC) order book depth has mirrored the decrease in volatility. It’s possible that market makers adjusted their algorithms to align with the prevailing market conditions.

Hence, delving into the derivatives market to assess the impact of the drop to $26,000 seems reasonable. This examination aims to determine whether whales and market makers have become bearish or if they’re demanding higher premiums for protective hedge positions.

To begin, traders should identify similar instances in the recent past, and two events stand out:

*Bitcoin/USD price index, 2023. Source: TradingView*

The first decline took place from March 8 to March 10, causing Bitcoin to plummet by 11.4% to $19,600, marking its lowest point in over seven weeks at that time. This correction followed the liquidation of Silvergate Bank, a crucial operational partner for multiple cryptocurrency firms.

The subsequent significant move occurred between April 19 and April 21, resulting in a 10.4% drop in Bitcoin’s price. It revisited the $27,250 level for the first time in more than three weeks after Gary Gensler, the chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, addressed the House Financial Services Committee. Gensler’s statements provided little reassurance that the agency’s enforcement-driven regulatory efforts would cease.

Not every 10% Bitcoin price crash is the same

Bitcoin quarterly futures generally tend to trade with a slight premium when compared to spot markets. This reflects sellers’ inclination to receive additional compensation in return for delaying the settlement. Healthy markets usually see BTC futures contracts being traded with an annualized premium ranging from 5 to 10%. This situation, termed “contango," is not unique to the cryptocurrency domain.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures premium, March/April 2023. Source: Laevitas*

Leading up to the crash on March 8, Bitcoin’s futures premium was at 3.5%, indicating a moderate level of comfort. However, when Bitcoin’s price dipped below $20,000, there was an intensified sense of pessimism, causing the indicator to shift to a discount of 3.5%. This phenomenon, referred to as "backwardation," is typical of bearish market conditions.

Conversely, the correction on April 19 had minimal impact on Bitcoin's futures main metric, with the premium remaining around 3.5% as the BTC price revisited $27,250. This could imply that professional traders were either highly confident in the soundness of the market structure or were well-prepared for the 10.4% correction.

The 11.4% BTC crash between Aug. 15 and Aug. 18, reveals distinct dissimilarities from previous instances. The starting point for Bitcoin’s futures premium was higher, surpassing the 5% neutral threshold.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures premium, August 2023. Source: Laevitas*

Notice how rapidly the derivatives market absorbed the shock on Aug. 18. The BTC futures premium swiftly returned to a 6% neutral-to-bullish position. This suggests that the decline to $26,000 did not significantly dampen the optimism of whales and market makers regarding the cryptocurrency.

Options markets confirm lack of bearish momentum

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused pro traders to become more risk-averse. In short, if traders anticipate a Bitcoin price drop, the delta skew metric will rise above 7%, and phases of excitement tend to have a -7% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas*

Data indicate excessive demand for call (buy) BTC options ahead of the Aug. 15 crash, with the indicator at -11%. This trend changed over the subsequent five days, though the metric remained within the neutral range and was unable to breach the 7% threshold.

Ultimately, both Bitcoin options and futures metrics reveal no signs of professional traders adopting a bearish stance. While this doesn’t necessarily guarantee a swift return of BTC to the $29,000 support level, it does reduce the likelihood of an extended price correction.

liquidation