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3 major mistakes to avoid when trading crypto futures and options

Leverage and hedging strategies are powerful ways to use derivatives contracts, but traders usually succumb to these three major mistakes.

Novice traders are usually drawn to futures and options markets due to the promise of high returns. These traders watch influencers post incredible gains, and at the same time, the multiple advertisements from derivatives exchanges that offer 100x leverage are at times irresistible for most. 

Although traders can effectively increase gains with recurring derivatives contracts, a few mistakes can quickly turn the dream of outsized gains into nightmares and an empty account. Even experienced investors in traditional markets fall victim to issues particular t cryptocurrency markets.

Cryptocurrency derivatives function similarly to traditional markets because buyers and sellers enter into contracts dependent on an underlying asset. The contract cannot be transferred across different exchanges, nor can it be withdrawn.

Most exchanges offer options contracts priced in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), so the gains or losses will vary according to the asset’s price fluctuations. Options contracts also offer the right to acquire and sell at a later date for a predetermined price. This gives traders the ability to build leverage and hedging strategies.

Let’s investigate three common errors to avoid when trading futures and options.

Convexity can kill your account

The first issue traders face when trading cryptocurrency derivatives is called convexity. In this situation, the margin deposit changes its value as the underlying asset’s price oscillates. As Bitcoin’s price increases, the investor’s margin rises in U.S. dollar terms, allowing additional leverage.

The issue emerges when the opposite movement occurs and BTC price collapses; consequently, the users’ deposited margin decreases in U.S. dollar terms. Traders often get too excited when trading futures contracts, and positive headwinds reduce their leverage as BTC price increases.

The main takeaway is that traders should not increase positions solely due to the delivery caused by the increasing value of margin deposits.

Isolated margin has benefits and risks

Derivatives exchanges require users to transfer funds from their regular spot wallets to futures markets, and some will offer an isolated margin for perpetual and monthly contracts. Traders have the option to select between cross collateral, meaning the same deposit serves multiple positions or is isolated.

There are benefits for each option, but novice traders tend to get confused and are liquidated due to failing to administer the margin deposits correctly. On the other hand, isolated margin offers more flexibility to support risk, but it requires additional maneuvers to prevent excessive liquidations.

To solve such an issue, one should always use cross margin and manually enter the stop loss on every trade.

Beware, not every options market has liquidity

Another common mistake involves trading illiquid options markets. Trading illiquid options drives up the cost of opening and closing positions, and options already have embedded expenses due to crypto’s high volatility.

Options traders should ensure the open interest is at least 50x the number of contacts desired to trade. Open interest represents the number of outstanding contracts with a strike price and expiration date that have been previously bought or sold.

Understanding implied volatility can also help traders make better decisions about the current price of an options contract and how they might change in the future. Keep in mind that an option’s premium increases alongside higher implied volatility.

The best strategy is to avoid buying calls and puts with excessive volatility.

It takes time to master derivatives trading, so traders should start small and test each function and market ahead of placing large bets.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin traders were ready for a hot CPI report, but BTC bears are still in control

BTC nose-dived to its lowest level since Sept. 21, and data shows pro traders continue to avoid leverage longs.

Cryptocurrency traders were caught by surprise after the Oct. 13 Consumer Price Index Report showed inflation in the United States rising by 0.6% in September versus the previous month. The slightly higher-than-expected number caused Bitcoin (BTC) to face a 4.4% price correction from $19,000 to $18,175 in less than three hours. 

The abrupt movement caused $55 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest amount in three weeks. The $18,200 level was the lowest since Sept. 21 and marks an 8.3% weekly correction.

Bitcoin/USD 1-hour price. Source: TradingView

It is worth highlighting that the dip under $18,600 on Sept. 21 lasted less than 5 hours. Bears were likely disappointed as a 6.3% rally took place on Sept. 22, causing Bitcoin to test the $19,500 resistance. A similar trend is happening on Oct. 13 as BTC currently trades near $19,000.

The stock market also reacted negatively as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index moved down 3% after the inflation data was released. After the initial panic selling, Nasdaq adjusted to a 2% daily loss as analysts reaffirmed their expectations toward a 0.75% interest rate increase by the U.S. Federal Reserve Committee in November.

Investors became even more bearish after BlackRock Inc (BLK) reported a 16% drop in profit versus the previous year. Meanwhile, financial heavyweights JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are set to report on Oct. .

Contrary to U.S. President Joe Biden's appeal, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs put out a rare statement on Oct. 13 defending the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' production cut. The White House wanted to delay the decision until after the midterms. Nevertheless, the oil producer group decided to decrease the supply target by 2 million barrels per day beginning in November.

All of these developments are increasing investors’ bearish emotions. ao get a better gauge on what is happening in the crypto sector, traders should look at derivatives data to see if investors were taken by surprise after the 4.4% dip below $18,200.

Futures markets were bearish for the past month

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are, however, professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

The indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past month because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 1% the entire time.

This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions despite the low cost. However, one must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Option traders are unwilling to offer downside protection

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection. For example, in bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

The 30-day delta skew had been above the 12% threshold since Oct. 10, signaling that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Oct. 13 might have been partially expected, which explains the relatively low impact on liquidations.

More importantly, the prevailing bearish sentiment remained after the CPI inflation was announced. Consequently, whales and markers are less inclined to add leverage longs or offer downside protection. Considering the weak macroeconomic conditions and global political tension, the odds currently favor the bears.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Three Arrows Capital fund moves over 300 NFTs to a new address

According to blockchain provider Nansen, hundreds of NFTs have been moved from the 3AC-linked fund to a Gnosis Safe address.

Starry Night Capital, a nonfungible-token (NFT)-focused fund launched by the co-founders of the now-bankrupt hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), has moved over 300 NFTs out of its address, according to reports. 

The Starry Night Capital was founded last year by Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, and pseudonymous NFT collector Vincent Van Dough. At the time, the fund planned to exclusively invest in "the most desired" NFTs on the market.

Blockchain data provider Nansen on Oct. 4 on Twitter noted that the NFTs were reportedly shifted from a wallet associated with the fund, including "Pepe the Frog NFT Genesis," which sold for 1,000 Ether (ETH) in October last year, worth $3.5 million at the time. 

Nansen said the NFTs previously collected by Starry Night Capital are moving to a Gnosis Safe address. 

Gnosis Safe is a platform used to manage digital assets on Ethereum, giving users complete self-custody over funds and digital assets.

A report from Bloomberg estimates the Starry Night Capital collection's total value sits at around $35 million.

It comes months after the Singapore-based crypto hedge fund, 3AC was ordered into liquidation by a court in the British Virgin Islands, leading to the appointment of liquidation firm Teneo, which has gained control of at least $40 million of 3AC assets so far as of an August report from Cointelegraph. 

That sum however accounts for only a tiny fraction of the 3AC’s debt to its creditors, which amounts to at least $2.8 billion.

The NFT's transfers came almost four months after Starry Night Capital's main crypto wallet moved almost all of its digital tokens to a new address. 

The Singapore-based crypto hedge fund, 3AC, became one of the many crypto firms that went bankrupt following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem earlier this year. The company, which once had over $10 billion in assets under management, eventually filed for a Chapter 15 bankruptcy on Jul. 1 in a New York court.

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3 Bitcoin price metrics suggest today’s 10% pump marked the final cycle bottom

Is the BTC bottom finally in? Data suggests that bears might be losing their tight grip on the market.

The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders. Especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly supports the recent gains.

Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability, efficiency standards and it also suggested Federal Agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative process with the industry.

Bitcoin/USD (orange, left) vs. S&P 500 futures (blue). Source: TradingView

Notice how the peaks and valleys on both charts tend to coincide, but the correlation changes as investors’ perceptions and risk assessments vary over time. For example, between May 2021 and July 2021, the correlation was inverted most of the period. Overall, the stock market posted steady gains while the crypto markets collapsed.

More importantly, the chart above shows a huge gap being opened between Bitcoin and the stock market as stocks rallied from mid-July to mid-August. A comparison using the same scale would be better, but that does not work due to the difference in volatility. Still, it is reasonable to conclude that historically these gaps tend to close.

The S&P 500 futures declined 18% in 2022 until Sept. 6, while Bitcoin dropped 60.5% during the same period. So it makes sense to assume that if investors’ appetite for risk assets returns, assets with higher volatility will outperform during a rally.

There are other factors that are in play though, so there is no way to predict the outcome, but the return of investors’ appetite for risk would justify Bitcoin to outperform the stock market and significantly reduce the performance difference.

Pro traders were not expecting Bitcoin to bounce

Bearish traders were liquidated on $120 million in futures contracts, the highest figure since June 13. Typically, one would not expect this outcome considering Bitcoin had lost 13% in the two weeks leading to Sept. 7, but one could assume that short sellers (bears) were caught by surprise as the exchanges’ liquidation engine scrambled to buy those orders.

However, there’s another anecdotal evidence hidden in the liquidation data provided by the derivatives exchanges.

Bitcoin futures 24-hour liquidation data. Source: CoinGlass

Notice how retail-driven exchanges (Binance and Bybit) represented a mere 17.4% of the total orders that were forcefully closed, while their combined market share on Bitcoin futures is 30.6% the data leaves no doubt that the whales at OKX and FTX were the ones being squeezed.

Another interesting piece of data that sets today’s 10% pump apart is Bitcoin dominance, which measures its market share versus all other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin dominance. Source: TradingView

Notice how the indicator spiked from 39% to the present 40.5%, something unseen since May 11 when Bitcoin flash crashed below $26,000. It took another 31 days for the bear market to break the $28,500 support on June 12. Also note that a sharp increase in BTC dominance can happen during rallies and steep price corrections so relying solely on these indicators provides little aid in interpreting market movements.

Fear has been erased from options markets

The 25% delta skew, which is the leading Bitcoin options “fear and greed” metric, improved just enough to enter a neutral level.

Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

If option investors feared a price crash, the skew indicator would move above 12%, whereas investor excitement tends to reflect a negative 12% skew. After peaking at 18% on Sept. 7, the metric currently stands at 12% which is the very edge of the neutral market. Therefore, the Bitcoin pump on Sept. 9 signaled that professional investors are no longer demanding excessive premiums for protective put options.

These three indicators back the relevance of Bitcoin’s recent 10% pump. A $120 million liquidation on leverage shorts (bears) was concentrated on less “retail-oriented” derivatives exchanges, the 1.5% hike in Bitcoin’s dominance rate and options traders pricing similar upside and downside risks all suggest that Bitcoin may have finally found a bottom.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs

BTC nose-dived to its lowest level since July 13, but data shows pro traders remain skeptical of a quick recovery.

An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15.

Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView

It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction.

Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismissed as Ether dropped 5.6% on Sept. 6, while Bitcoin's $860 loss represents a 3.8% change.

The market has been in a bit of a rut since Aug. 27 comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was followed by a $1.25 trillion loss in U.S. stocks in a single day. At the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said that larger interest rate hikes were still firmly on the table, causing the S&P 500 to close down 3.4% that day.

Let’s take a look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors have been pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders have been bearish since last week

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

In healthy markets, the indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium to cover costs and associated risks. So one can safely say that derivatives traders had been neutral to bearish for the past month because the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 3% the entire time. This data reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

The 30-day delta skew had been above the 12% threshold since Sept 1, signaling options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. These two derivatives metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price dump on Sept. 6 might have been partially expected, which explains the low impact on liquidations.

In comparison, the $2,500 Bitcoin drop on Aug. 18 caused $210 million worth of leveraged long (buyers) liquidations. Still, the prevailing bearish sentiment does not necessarily translate to adverse price action. Therefore, one should tread carefully when whales and market markers are less inclined to add leverage longs and offer downside protection using options.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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3 reasons why Bitcoin’s drop to $21K and the market-wide sell-off could be worse than you think

There are signs of further turbulence ahead. The absence of a BTC futures premium, $470 million in liquidations and excessive stablecoin lending all point toward new yearly lows.

On Friday, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 9.1%, but more importantly, the all-important $1 trillion psychological support was tapped. The market's latest venture below this just three weeks ago, meaning investors were pretty confident that the $780 billion total market-cap low on June 18 was a mere distant memory.

Regulatory uncertainty increased on Aug. 17 after the United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce announced that they were "deeply concerned" that proof-of-work mining could increase demand for fossil fuels. As a result, U.S. lawmakers requested the crypto mining companies to provide information on energy consumption and average costs.

Typically, sell-offs have a greater impact on cryptocurrencies outside of the top 5 assets by market capitalization, but today’s correction presented losses ranging from 7% to 14% across the board. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a 9.7% loss as it tested $21,260 and Ether (ETH) presented a 10.6% drop at its $1,675 intraday low.

Some analysts might suggest that harsh daily corrections like the one seen today is a norm rather than an exception considering the asset’s 67% annualized volatility. Case in point, today’s intraday drop in the total market capitalization exceeded 9% in 19 days over the past 365, but some aggravants are causing this current correction to stand out.

The BTC Futures premium vanished

The fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as "contango," this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.

Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas

According to the OKX and Deribit Bitcoin futures premium, the 9.7% negative swing on BTC caused investors to eliminate any optimism using derivatives instruments. When the indicator flips to the negative area, trading in "backwardation," it typically means there is much higher demand from leveraged shorts who are betting on further downside.

Leverage buyers' liquidations exceeded $470 million

Futures contracts are a relatively low-cost and easy instrument that allows the use of leverage. The danger of using them lies in liquidation, meaning the investor’s margin deposit becomes insufficient to cover their positions. In these cases, the exchange's automatic deleveraging mechanism kicks in and sells the crypto used as collateral to reduce the exposure.

Aggregate crypto 24-hour liquidations, USD. Source: Coinglass

A trader might increase their gains by 10x using leverage, but if the asset drops 9% from their entry point, the position is terminated. The derivatives exchange will proceed to sell the collateral, creating a negative loop known as a cascading liquidation. As depicted above, the Aug. 19 sell-off presented the highest number of buyers being forced into selling since June 12.

Margin traders were excessively bullish and destroyed

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position and potentially increase their returns. As an example, a trader could buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing their crypto exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn't necessarily matched. When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish—the opposite, a low ratio, signals that the market is bearish.

OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

Crypto traders are known for being bullish, which is understandable considering the adoption potential and fast-growing use cases like decentralized finance (DeFi) and the perception that certain cryptocurrencies provide protection against USD inflation. A margin lending rate of 17x higher favors stablecoins is not normal and indicates excessive confidence from leverage buyers.

These three derivatives metrics show traders were definitely not expecting the entire crypto market to correct as sharply as today, nor for the total market capitalization to retest the $1 trillion support. This renewed loss of confidence might cause bulls to further reduce their leverage positions and possibly trigger new lows in the coming weeks..

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Plume Network secures $20M for tokenization platform

Three Arrows Capital Assets Frozen by Judge in New York As Founders’ Whereabouts Remain Unknown: Report

Three Arrows Capital Assets Frozen by Judge in New York As Founders’ Whereabouts Remain Unknown: Report

The walls are closing in around one embattled crypto hedge fund as the legal system issues a ruling on behalf of its jilted creditors. According to a new CNBC report, a federal judge in New York has ordered Three Arrows Capital’s (3AC) remaining assets to be frozen as part of an ongoing bankruptcy proceeding. The […]

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FTX on the verge of purchasing BlockFi in $25M fire sale: Report

The cryptocurrency derivatives exchange could potentially buy out the troubled lender for pennies on the dollar.

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX is close to purchasing digital asset lender BlockFi's remaining assets for $25 million, according to CNBC.

According to sources close to the matter, BlockFi's equity investors were wiped out and are now writing their positions off at a loss. In addition, the FTX deal could take multiple months to close, opening up the possibility that the price tag could shift over that period. In June 2021, BlockFi had a reported valuation of $5 billion.

Earlier this year, BlockFi had over 1 million clients, over $10 billion in assets and deposits, and had distributed more than $700 million in crypto rewards and interest. However, BlockFi's fortunes quickly soured after it reportedly became a major creditor of the now troubled hedge fund Three Arrow Capital, also known as 3AC. As a result, it was forced to liquidate 3AC's positions amounting to $1.33 billion, likely at a severe loss as the bear market intensified in June. 

The situation was exacerbated by 3AC posting collateral for the loan in $400 million worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) shares, which often trade at a discount or premium to spot Bitcoin (BTC) prices. At the time of liquidation, GBTC shares were trading at a 34% discount to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, which plunged further as BlockFi began closing the position.

Related: FTX may be planning to purchase a stake in BlockFi

Earlier this month, BlockFi said it would fire 20% of its 850-strong staff due to profitability woes in the short term. Just last week, FTX had extended a $250 million line of credit to BlockFi and denied rumors that it was acquiring the ill-fortuned firm. 

Plume Network secures $20M for tokenization platform

Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Faces Liquidation Order From Authorities in British Virgin Islands: Report

Crypto Hedge Fund Three Arrows Capital Faces Liquidation Order From Authorities in British Virgin Islands: Report

Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital is reportedly facing liquidation after a recent court order. According to a new report from Reuters, a court in the British Virgin Islands has ordered the liquidation of the Singapore-based firm on Monday. Reuters says that Teneo, a global consultancy and advisory firm, has been appointed as liquidators. The […]

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Report: A British Virgin Islands Court Order Liquidates Crypto Firm Three Arrows Capital

Report: A British Virgin Islands Court Order Liquidates Crypto Firm Three Arrows CapitalAccording to a recent report from Sky News citing a source familiar with the matter, “cryptocurrency insiders” have said that the troubled crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) has been formally liquidated by a British Virgin Islands (BVI) court. The report does not disclose what type of assets face liquidation, but the sources remarked […]

Plume Network secures $20M for tokenization platform