Bitcoin eyes $30K, XRP price jumps 6% after Ripple’s legal victory

October 20, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin keeps heading higher as BTC price strength flies in the face of a hawkish Fed, but concerns over a retracement are building.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $29,500 on Oct. 20 after an eventful 24 hours boosted BTC price trajectory while XRP price jumped above $0.50 in response to Ripple's big legal win.

*BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Hawkish Fed's Powell fails to dent BTC price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it edged closer to two-month highs from the start of the week.

The largest cryptocurrency appeared to feed off events surrounding a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve, the day prior.

Amid a U.S. bond rout, Powell was under pressure to deliver appropriate wording, and analysis even predicted a “very dovish” tone would dominate. In the event, the speech, which was briefly interrupted by protesters, saw Powell highly conservative on the outlook.

“The stance of policy is restrictive, meaning that tight policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation,” he said about interest rate hikes.

“Given the fast pace of the tightening, there may still be meaningful tightening in the pipeline.”

Powell said that the Fed acknowledged the potential problems of hiking rates too far.

“Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment. Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy,” he continued.

“Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the Committee is proceeding carefully.”

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed changing tides among market expectations when it comes to future rate decisions.

At its next meeting on Nov. 1, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is now unanimously thought to hold rates at their current levels, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Before Powell, odds stood at 88%.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Following the speech, news broke that U.S. regulators had dropped criminal charges against executives of Blockchain firm Ripple.

XRP price responded immediately, trading up over 6% in 24 hours at the time of writing.

*XRP/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Trader suggests Bitcoin "impulse" is here

Amid a backdrop of increasing anticipation over approval of a U.S. Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF), Bitcoin gained momentum overnight.

At the time of writing, the day’s highs stood at $29,689 — just $200 from the top of a snap volatility wick seen on Oct. 17.

$BTC has launched.

Keeping it as simple as it can get:

The same way 26.8k was the origin of our last impulse, 28.6k is now the origin of the current one. Above that, we are going A LOT higher, FAST.

Drop below 28.6k and the local uptrend will be violated and we may get a bit… https://t.co/odakQpZbTL pic.twitter.com/CbhLBo133G
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) October 20, 2023

“Bitcoin filling the wick, slowly but surely. Let's go for that $30k tap,” popular trader Jelle wrote in part of X analysis on the day, having previously argued that Bitcoin looked “eager to fill” the Oct. 17 wick.

“Today it's going a very interesting day for trading... They have hit exactly $29400 where there were many liquidations,” fellow trader CrypNuevo continued.

In various X posts, CrytpNuevo uploaded liquidation data from the past days, warnings that long positions outnumbered shorts four to one. Bitcoin, he suggested, could retrace during the U.S. trading session.

$BTC

Liquidation levels and liquidation heatmaps.

Quick thoughts:
- All our liquidation levels to the upside from yesterday have been hit.
- Delta long liquidations at $15B (mid-high amount and enough to consider a retrace is coming soon).
- Current long-short open positions… pic.twitter.com/dAqbRbaimc
— CrypNuevo (@CrypNuevo) October 20, 2023

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Over $127,000,000 in Crypto Assets Liquidated in the Past 24 Hours As Bitcoin Plummets Below $26,000

September 1, 2023 The Daily Hodl

$218,000,000 in Liquidations Hits Short Sellers in 24 Hours As Crypto Market Rallies After Favorable XRP Ruling

July 14, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Over $140,000,000 in Crypto Liquidated As Bitcoin Abruptly Retraces New 2023 High

July 6, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin holds $30K as bulls flaunt their advantage in Friday’s $715M BTC options expiry

June 22, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin holds K as bulls flaunt their advantage in Friday’s 5M BTC options expiry

ARK

News of regulatory enforcement against the crypto sector fell to the wayside as Bitcoin price rallied above $30,000, and options data suggests the trend will continue.

Bitcoin's (BTC) 15% rally toward $30,300 between June 19 and June 21 caught most traders by surprise, triggering $125 million in liquidations of leveraged short futures contracts. Narrowing down the trigger for the rally is complicated, but some analysts point to the potential inflow of institutional investors if Blackrock’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) application gets regulatory approval.

BlackRock just filed with the SEC to create a spot #Bitcoin ETF.

Given their reputation, this has the highest likelihood of happening out of all the attempts at a spot ETF so far.

The institutional liquidity floodgates may finally open https://t.co/c9g2Ten1h8 pic.twitter.com/L2NmXq11gL
— Joe Consorti ⚡ (@JoeConsorti) June 15, 2023

ARK Invest CEO and chief investment officer Cathie Wood explained the rationale for the firm’s bullishness on Bitcoin price, more specifically their $1 million target. According to Wood, even in a deflationary environment, Bitcoin can still outperform by offering a solution to the traditional financial system’s counterparty risk.

Furthermore, the negative regulatory pressure eased on June 16 after Binance exchange was able to strike a temporary agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to avoid a potential asset freeze. The event further cemented Bitcoin bears’ opportunity to profit on the $715 million weekly BTC options expiry.

Bears made a mistake when BTC price dropped below $25,000

Bitcoin’s price dropped below $26,300 on June 10, fueling bearish bets by traders using option contracts. Such a level was only recouped on June 16, which explains why bears have concentrated their bets on Bitcoin prices trading below $27,000.

*Deribit* *Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 23. Source: Deribit*

The 0.82 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $415 million call (buy) options and the $300 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower as bears were caught by surprise as Bitcoin gained 10% in two days.

For instance, if Bitcoin's price remains near $29,800 at 8:00 a.m. UTC on June 23, there will be only $5 million in put options. This distinction arises since the right to sell Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 is rendered void if BTC trades above that on the expiry.

Bulls are in a good position to capture a $250 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 23 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies depending on the expiration price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $27,000 and $28,000: 3,500 calls vs. 1,200 puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $60 million.
Between $28,000 and $29,000: 7,300 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call instruments by $195 million.
Between $29,000 and $30,000: 8,600 calls vs. 100 puts. The bulls' advantage increases to $250 million.
Between $30,000 and $31,000: 10,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls have total control, profiting $310 million.

This rough estimate considers only put options in bearish bets and call options in neutral-to-bullish trades. Nonetheless, this oversimplification excludes more complex investment strategies. A trader, for example, could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but this effect is difficult to estimate.

Bears will likely try to downplay the multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) applications, including Blackrock’s and WisdomTree’s. Meanwhile, bulls should closely monitor the regulatory changes, including the ongoing Binance exchange’s investigation in France, as the Paris Prosecutor’s Office reportedly cited “acts of illegal exercise of the function of a service provider on digital assets (PSAN), and acts of aggravated money laundering.”

The critical level for the weekly expiration is $28,000, but it is impossible to predict the outcome due to increased cryptocurrency regulatory risks. If bulls are able to profit $250 million or higher, those funds will most likely be used to further strengthen the $28,000 support.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin (BTC) Shatters $30,000 Level As Traders Get Liquidated for Over $207,000,000

June 21, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin rebound falters amid SEC crackdown on exchanges, raising chance of a BTC price capitulation

June 8, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Regulatory concerns continue to impact the entire crypto market and this week’s BTC options expiry could play a decisive role in pushing Bitcoin price under $26,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price lost steam after a failed retest of the $27,400 resistance on June 6, signaling that investors became less confident after the recent regulatory actions by the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission against Binance and Coinbase. Both exchanges are being sued on multiple counts, including failure to register as licensed brokers and offering unregistered securities.

The SEC might have a difficult case ahead

According to Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith, the SEC is trying to circumvent formal rulemaking processes and deny public engagement. Meanwhile, Insider Intelligence crypto analyst Will Paige said the SEC’s intent is to police the space through enforcement in the absence of a regulatory framework.

Those criticisms explain why investors may be clinging to their hopes in the U.S. Financial Services Committee hearing, scheduled for June 13.

The potential overreach of the SEC has caused ripples multiple times,including the U.S. legislative. Senator Bill Hagerty, for instance, stated that the regulating agency is "weaponizing their role", and publicly called out the SEC chairman Gary Gensler.

The @SECGov is weaponizing their role to kill an industry. Allowing a company to list publicly and then stonewalling their attempts to register is indefensible. @GaryGensler, expect to hear from Congress.https://t.co/GdprSW1Yns
— Senator Bill Hagerty (@SenatorHagerty) June 6, 2023

Further supporting the thesis that the cryptocurrency space can function without crypto-banks, as the centralized exchanges are commonly known, is the sudden increase in decentralized finance (DeFi) volumes.

The median trading volume across the top three decentralized exchanges jumped 444% between June 5 and June 7. As DEX volumes surged, net outflows on Binance reached $778 million, the difference between the value of assets entering and exiting the exchange.

Bitcoin has been trying to claim back the $27,000 support, but that might be harder than expected given the upcoming $670 million weekly option expiry on June 9.

Bulls have been caught by surprise with the negative newsflow

It is worth noting that the actual open interest for the June 9 expiry will be lower since bulls concentrated their wagers above $27,000. These traders got excessively optimistic after Bitcoin’s price gained 9% between May 25 and May 29, testing the $28,000 resistance.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 9. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.63 put-to-call ratio reflects the imbalance between the $410 million in call (buy) open interest and the $260 million in put (sell) options. However, if Bitcoin’s price remains near $26,500 at 8:00 am UTC on June 9, only $38 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $27,000 or $28,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$26,000 to increase their payout

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on June 9 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies depending on the expiry price.

The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $25,000 and $26,000: 100 calls vs. 5,100 puts. Bears in total control, profiting $125 million.
Between $26,000 and $27,000: 1,500 calls vs. 3,900 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $65 million.
Between $27,000 and $28,000: 4,200 calls vs. 1,300 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $80 million.
Between $28,000 and $29,000: 8,700 calls vs. 700 puts. The net result favors call (bull) instruments by $225 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. This oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Given that Bitcoin longs using futures contracts were liquidated to the tune of $100 million on June 5, bulls might have less margin required to try pumping the BTC price above the $27,000 mark. Consequently, bears seem closer to scoring a decent profit on Friday's options expiry.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Ether price struggles to maintain support as regulatory challenges and network issues weigh

April 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Ether options volume hints at bearish sentiment as the $1,850 support falters.

The Ether (ETH) price has struggled to sustain the $1,850 support since April 21, the same level it held before the rally toward $2,100 initiated on April 13. Investors have reason to question whether there are buyers, considering the 13.5% price correction in six days and the $548 million in leveraged futures longs liquidated between April 19 and April 21.

Firstly, the regulatory environment seems to have gotten stricter for centralized exchanges. Dubai-based Bybit, for instance, announced that all users must complete Know Your Customer (KYC) identity verification for order execution and withdrawals. Before the May 8 update, non-KYC users had a monthly withdrawal limit of 100,000 USD Tether (USDT).

United States-based crypto exchange Gemini announced on April 21 the upcoming launch of a derivatives platform outside the U.S. The uncertain regulatory environment forced the company to seek alternative regions, though only clients from selected regions can access the new service. The list excludes the U.S., Canada, and most European countries except Switzerland.

Ethereum network is navigating in troubled waters

Given its lower use in decentralized applications (Dapps), the Ethereum network is probably experiencing its own problems. For starters, total deposits on Ethereum's smart contracts in ETH terms plunged to their lowest levels since August 2020. Such an analysis already excludes the effects of native Ethereum staking, which recently started to allow withdrawals.

*Ethereum network applications total deposits in ETH. Source: DefiLlama*

According to DefiLlama data, Ethereum Dapps reached 15.3 million ETH in total value locked (TVL) on April 24. That compares with 22.0 million ETH six months prior, a 30% decline. As a comparison, TVL on BNB Smart Chain in BNB terms declined by 20%, and Polygon network’s MATIC deposits decreased by 11%.

Furthermore, Ethereum network dominance on stablecoin deposits reached its lowest level in more than 12 months at 54%, down from 64% in December 2022. On the other hand, the Tron network was the biggest winner in stablecoins due to its low transaction fee. As a comparison, the Ethereum network's average transaction fee has been above $4 since February 2023.

Ethereum market share by volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) peaked at 75% in the week ending March 5 but has steadily declined to 44% in the week ending April 16.

*Weekly DEX volume by chain. Source: DefiLlama*

Gainers on DEX trading volumes were Arbitrum, increasing to 22.2% from 7%, and BNB Smart Chain, growing to 16.6% from 5.1% since March 5. One might argue that the success of the Ethereum network's scaling solution necessarily reflects bullishness for the Ether price, but that relationship is not so direct.

Pro traders are leaning bearish

To understand whether professional traders are pricing higher odds of an ETH price decline, one should analyze the options markets. Traders can gauge the market’s sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are used for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put option open interest lags the more bullish calls and is, therefore, bullish. In contrast, a 1.40 indicator favors put options, which can be deemed bearish.

*ETH options volume put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas*

The put-to-call ratio for Ether options volume increased to its lowest level in over three months, indicating excess demand for neutral-to-bearish puts. Currently, the protective put options outnumber the neutral-to-bullish call options by more than four times.

Judging by the uncertain regulatory environment in the U.S. and the impacts of the competing networks, whether or not using second-layer technologies, odds are the Ether price will unlikely be able to sustain the $1,850 support. Derivatives traders clearly reflect the higher probability of negative price movements.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

$359,000,000 in Bitcoin and Crypto Liquidated in Just 24 Hours As BTC Reclaims $28,000

March 23, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Ethereum price reaches lowest level relative to Bitcoin in 5 months

March 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Traders question whether the underperformance is due to the Shapella hard fork, while derivatives data indicates that ETH buyers lack conviction.

The previous six months should have been extremely beneficial to Ether's (ETH) price, especially after the project's most significant upgrade ever in September 2022. However, the reality was the opposite: between September 15, 2022, and March 15, 2023, Ether underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by 10%.

*Ether/Bitcoin price on Bitfinex, 2-day. Source: TradingView*

The price ratio of 0.068 ETH/BTC had been holding since October 2022, a support that was broken on March 15. Whatever the reason for the underperformance, traders currently have little confidence in placing leverage bets, according to ETH futures and options data.

But first, one should consider why Ether's price was expected to rise in the previous six months. On September 15, 2022, the Merge, a hard fork that switched the network to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, occurred. It enabled a much lower, even negative, coin issuing rate. But, more importantly, the change paved the way for parallel processing that aimed to bring scalability and lower transaction costs to the Ethereum network.

The Shapella hard fork, expected to take effect on the mainnet in April, is the next step in the Ethereum network upgrade. The change will allow validators who previously deposited 32 ETH to enter the staking mechanism to withdraw in part or in full. While this development is generally positive because it gives validators more flexibility, the potential 1.76 million ETH unlock is a negative consequence.

However, there is a cap on the number of validators that can exit; therefore, the maximum daily unstake is 70,000 ETH. Moreover, after exiting the validation process, one may choose between Lido, Rocket Pool, or a decentralized finance (DeFi) application for yield mechanisms. These coins will not necessarily be sold at the market.

Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the recent drop below the 0.068 ETH/BTC ratio has affected investors' sentiment.

ETH futures recovered from a state of panic

In healthy markets, the annualized three-month futures premium should trade between 5% and 10% to cover associated costs and risks. However, when the contract trades at a discount (backwardation) relative to traditional spot markets, it indicates traders' lack of confidence and is regarded as a bearish indicator.

*Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

Derivatives traders became uncomfortable holding leverage long (bull) positions as the Ether futures premium moved below zero on March 11, down from 3.5% just two days prior. More importantly, the current 2.5% premium remains modest and distant from the 5% neutral-to-bullish threshold.

Nonetheless, declining demand for leverage longs (bulls) does not necessarily imply an expectation of negative price action. As a result, traders should examine Ether's options markets to understand how whales and market makers price the likelihood of future price movements.

ETH options confirm a lack of risk appetite

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection. In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 8%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew metric below -8%, meaning the bearish put options are in less demand.

*Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

On March 3, the delta skew crossed the bearish 8% threshold, indicating stress among professional traders. The fear levels peaked on March 10, when the price of Ether plummeted to $1,370, its lowest level in 56 days, although the price of ETH rebounded above $1,480 on March 12.

Surprisingly, on March 12, the 25% delta skew metric continued to rise, reaching its highest level of skepticism since November 2022. That happened just hours before Ether's price rose 20% in 48 hours. That explains why ETH traders shorting futures contracts faced $507 million in liquidations.

The 3% delta skew metric currently signals a balanced demand for ETH call and put options. When combined with the neutral stance on ETH futures premium, the derivatives market indicates that professional traders are hesitant to place either bullish or bearish bets. Unfortunately, ETH derivatives metrics do not favor traders expecting Ether to reclaim the 0.068 level against Bitcoin in the near term.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Liquidations

Hawkish Fed's Powell fails to dent BTC price

Trader suggests Bitcoin "impulse" is here

Bears made a mistake when BTC price dropped below $25,000

Bulls are in a good position to capture a $250 million profit

The SEC might have a difficult case ahead

Bulls have been caught by surprise with the negative newsflow

Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$26,000 to increase their payout

Ethereum network is navigating in troubled waters

Pro traders are leaning bearish

ETH futures recovered from a state of panic

ETH options confirm a lack of risk appetite

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