Macro guru and Real Vision chief executive Raoul Pal says that Bitcoin (BTC) is mirroring the same pattern seen about nine years ago before igniting a parabolic surge. In a new thread on the social media platform X, the ex-Goldman Sachs executive says that market conditions are lining up in a way that could see […]
The post Bitcoin Mirroring 2016 Pattern That Led to 20x Rally, According to Macro Guru Raoul Pal – Here’s His Outlook appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
According to Michael van de Poppe, an upcoming surge in global liquidity, fueled by debt refinancing, could trigger the next Bitcoin bull run.
A notable market analyst believes the cryptocurrency and commodities markets could both be ahead of a parabolic rally.
This is because both crypto assets and commodities remain “extremely undervalued,” according to analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe.
The analyst noted in a September 15 post on X that commodities were last valued at similar levels in 2000 and 1971.
Bitcoin could start its rally next week on a potential liquidity injection in the world’s largest economy.
Arthur Hayes has closed his Bitcoin short position following initial concerns about a deep correction over the weekend.
On Sept. 6, Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could correct below the $50,000 psychological mark this weekend as he opened a short position to capitalize on the downside.
Easing investor concerns, Hayes announced the closure of his short Bitcoin position, expecting a potential Bitcoin rally as soon as next week, he wrote in a Sept. 8 X post:
Bitcoin could see a breakout to new all-time highs as soon as next month, but BTC must first tackle significant resistance around $59,500.
Bitcoin could see a breakout in September, based on historical chart patterns, and $86,000 could be the next major price target.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could be on track to an imminent breakout in September, based on previous post-halving chart patterns, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst wrote in an Aug. 18 X post to his 493,000 followers:
The growth of the money supply is historically correlated with previous Bitcoin price bull runs.
The growing money supply in the United States could be the key to unlocking more upward momentum for Bitcoin (BTC), according to market analysts and historical chart patterns.
The M2 money supply estimates all cash and short-term bank deposits across the United States, and its growth has historically been correlated with previous Bitcoin bull runs.
The growth of the money supply could hold the key for the next leg up for the Bitcoin cycle, according to Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Realvision, who wrote in a May 16 X post:
A political deadlock over the U.S. debt ceiling and its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin, which is already up 75% in 2023.
On April 26, House Republicans scarcely passed their bill to increase the U.S. debt ceiling. This led to analysts already weighing its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC), ranging from extremely bearish to overly bullish.
Ultimately, U.S. dollar liquidity is the key to both of these opposing viewpoint.
Some analysts, including Jesse Meyers, the COO of investment firm Onramp, believe raising the debt ceiling would prompt the Federal Reserve to print more money, thus boosting capital inflows into "risky" assets like Bitcoin.
The debt ceiling represents the maximum amount of money the U.S. government can borrow to pay its bills.
Related: Fed balance sheet adds $393B in two weeks — Will this send Bitcoin price to $40K?
Raising it means they can issue more debt to generate more capital. But since the Fed is not buying bonds anymore thanks to its "quantitative tightening," and the flow of available M2 money supply crashing, the U.S. government debt may find it hard to attract buyers.
In other words, a deflationary recession that Meyers believes will force the Fed to return to its quantitive easing policy.
"When the debt ceiling is lifted and credit-contraction leads to economic crisis... They will have to print money on a massive scale," he noted, reminding:
"Bitcoin was the winner during the last round of stimulus."
The government has already hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling in January 2023. So, it theoretically cannot generate more capital until the Senate passes the House-passed bill.
However, it's unlikely to pass the Senate and Biden has also vowed to veto the bill.
The standoff could result in the U.S. government defaulting on its debt in June, which poses negative consequences for the U.S. dollar, according to Jeff John Roberts, crypto editor at Fortune.
"If [Republicans] decide to go the kamikaze route during the current debt ceiling standoff, it will deliver another major hit to the dollar's credibility—and a further boost to Bitcoin," he noted.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers meanwhile downplays the fears associated with a potential debt default, noting that the odds of it happening stands under 2%.
Summers:
"I think the odds that we will default in the sense of insolvency, and over some interval people who hold bonds will not be able to get paid, are - assuming the absence of a major war - certainly under 2% over the next decade."
Presenting a similar outlook, analyst TedTalksMacro says extending the debt ceiling would ensure that the Fed continues contracting its balance sheet through the ongoing QT.
That points to lower liquidity and, in turn, more downside pressure for Bitcoin.
"One caveat to the liquidity down/sideways for the rest of 2023 would be the Fed winding up or slowing the current pace QT," TedTalksMacro adds.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
While several market strategists and analysts expect U.S. inflation to drop considerably in 2023 compared with last year, Michael Wilkerson, founder of Stormwall Advisors, thinks the inflation rate could climb as high as 12% by the end of this year. The country’s inflation rate has cooled down over the past seven months, but Wilkerson insists […]