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December 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls fight to hold $34K as CME BTC open interest surpasses 100K

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Bitcoin bulls fight to hold K as CME BTC open interest surpasses 100K

Bitcoin Price

A surge in CME BTC volumes and open interest highlight institutional investors' growing interest in Bitcoin. Will it be enough to keep the price in the current range?

Bitcoin (BTC) price currently battles to hold the $34,000 level after a stellar rally and short squeeze saw its price push above $35,000 on Oct. 23.

In an Oct. 24 market update, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted that after 7 months of consolidation, Bitcoin’s upward move melted the $32,000 resistance “like butter” and he expects that the upcoming monthly resistance is unlikely to be a hurdle.

Edwards said:

“It would make sense to see either a rapid continuation to mid-range ($43K) or short-term consolidation between support resistance at $32-$35K before continuation.”

As Cointelegraph mentioned in an earlier price update,

“Successive daily closes above the $31,700 level would be notable, as daily or weekly higher high candles above this level puts the price above a key pivot point and enters territory not seen since May 2022.”

Regarding the catalysts for this week’s price move, Edwards agrees that the recent fervor over what looks to be a sooner-than-later SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is contributing to the rally, but he also cites a handful of other near-term factors.

*Bitcoin price catalysts. Source: Capriole Investments*

LayerTwo Labs founder Paul Sztorc concurred, saying, “I think we’re seeing meaningful inklings of a broader decoupling of Bitcoin from equities, and this divergence of sorts has taken a lot of market participants by surprise”

Potential concerns related to “foreign conflict and rising macroeconomic uncertainty, expectations among traders had been focused on a forthcoming dip that ultimately didn’t materialize.”But Sztorc explained that during the U.S. regional banking crisis the market underwent “a similar divergence” which resulted in “Bitcoin outperforming then as well.”

Sztorc believes that the bulk of the recent divergent price action is “a lot of traders and investors are now accumulating ahead of that event.”

“I also think there are expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely have to start easing monetary policy soon because of the issue of rapidly rising yields. More specifically, traders are probably anticipating this easing by way of the Fed having to revert to some form of yield-curve control, the consequences of which tends to be monetary debasement.”

CME Bitcoin open interest surpasses 100,000 BTC

Further proof that institutional investors are warming up to Bitcoin and the idea that a spot BTC ETF will be approved comes from the CME where BTC open interest hit a new record above 100,000 BTC. Beyond the bare price speculation, the takeaway here is that if institutional investors are accumulating spot Bitcoin, they then need to hedge this position, hence the surge in volumes and open interest seen at CME and other places.

CME BTC futures OI has breached 100k BTC for the first time ever.

While offshore perp OI shrank by 26,735 BTC yesterday, CME's OI grew by 4,380 BTC. pic.twitter.com/kjKBRYCoSX
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) October 24, 2023

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Why the 2024 Bitcoin halving may play out differently than in the past

October 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Halving

While the halving event is considered one of the main catalysts for Bitcoin bull markets, it may play out differently next year.

The impact of the Bitcoin halving on crypto prices is often overestimated and the next halving, set for April 2024, may play out differently than previous ones, according to a leading analyst.

The halving event, which every four years, cuts in half the rate by which new Bitcoins are created, and is generally considered one of the main catalysts driving Bitcoin’s biggest upside moves.

Despite the bullish narrative surrounding the halving, however, the event by itself does not guarantee the appreciation of Bitcoin.

If the reduced supply of new Bitcoin is not accompanied by significant demand, prices are unlikely to surge.

Also, the halving is an entirely predictable event: that means all market participants know in advance when it will occur and therefore its current price may already be reflective of the halving's impact before it happens.

“Things that we most anticipate generally don't happen,” said Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, commenting on the much anticipated event.

“And that's what I'm concerned about. It's complete consensus,” he continued.

Also, each time the halving occurs, its impact on the new Bitcoin supply decreases; over time, its impact will eventually become irrelevant. Changes in demand, rather than supply, are therefore becoming the dominant factor influencing the price of Bitcoin.

So, how will the next Bitcoin halving impact the crypto market? And, if not the halving, what is the catalysts behind Bitcoin’s cyclical upside moves? To find out, check out our latest Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

Interest rate hikes may pause very soon — Here’s why

September 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

This week, The Market Report discusses Bitcoin’s recent price action and the upcoming FOMC meeting, where some speculate interest rates might be paused.

On this week’s episode of The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman discusses Bitcoin’s (BTC) strength ahead of the United States Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting , with investors betting on an interest rate freeze.

Pechman expresses skepticism about the claim that recent inflation data indicated the Federal Reserve’s 2% target was within reach, citing the time lag for interest rate changes to impact inflation and previous instability caused by rate increases.

Moving on, Pechman addresses the decreasing supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, seen as a bullish signal. However, he disagrees that this alone was responsible for Bitcoin’s price surge. Marcel also ponders whether this activity was related to the FOMC meeting but considers it unlikely to be a short-term event.

The next topic covered in the show is the Securities and Exchange Commission’s request to access Binance.US’ software. Pechman explains that while it might seem like the SEC faced a loss in court, the judge expressed doubts about Binance.US’ control of its assets and requested more evidence.

Pechman speculates that Binance was seeking a delay and extension to provide documents or reorganize its operations. Pechman emphasizes the judge’s remarks against Binance and acknowledges the challenges it might encounter in dismissing the accusations, as well as the potential implications for the exchange’s future.

Listen to the full episode of The Market Report on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, and don’t forget to click “Like” and “Subscribe” to keep up-to-date with all our latest content.

Bitcoin at $25K: Discount or disaster?

September 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

This week, The Market Report discusses Bitcoin’s recent dip below $25,000 and what it means for the near future. Was it a discount or a disaster?

In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman delves into Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest bounce at $25,000, which some analysts and influencers argue represents a short-term buying opportunity. Pechman explains that Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index has only held for 40% of the previous 20 months, meaning it is likely not a good metric to anticipate price movements.

The show then shifts focus to a recent Glassnode report revealing that the amount of BTC changing hands is at its lowest since October 2020, citing investors’ “apathy” and “exhaustion.” Pechman argues that bulls got tired after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s relentless action to pursue Coinbase and Binance. Ultimately, Pechman disagrees that Bitcoin’s recent movement to $25,000 presents an opportunity for buyers, given that the short-term risk-reward ratio near the current price level is around 50:50.

For the show’s next segment, Pechman analyzes the prediction made by Davis Hui, vice president of Bitcoin miner Canaan, that BTC will hit $100,000 in 2024 based on the halving and a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval. First, Pechman explains that BlackRock’s $10 trillion in assets is merely a mirage, as 55% is stuck in fixed-income investments and $2.8 trillion is already invested in other ETFs such as commodities, the S&P 500 index, global emerging markets and alternative investments.

Furthermore, Pechman raises the risk of current holders deciding to flip their positions previously bought at $60,000, $50,000 or even $40,000 if Bitcoin’s price were to shoot up, meaning the offer side is never predictable regardless of miners’ incentives. Lastly, Pechman explains that a spot Bitcoin ETF has been a dream for the past eight years, and nothing has changed to refute the SEC’s reasons for dismissal, namely stablecoin trading volumes and unregulated offshore exchanges.

Check out the latest episode of The Market Report, available exclusively on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Here’s why Bitcoin will hit $22K soon

September 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Arthur Hayes

This week, The Market Report discusses why $22,000 is the next logical step for Bitcoin and why BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claims the bull market started back in March.

In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s The Market Report, analyst Marcel Pechman explores the drivers that point to Bitcoin heading to $22,000, with investor sentiment worsening after Grayscale Investment’s much-hyped legal victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Aug. 29 and its postponement of multiple spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund applications.

According to Pechman, on the side of the bears are multiple lawsuits from the SEC against Binance and Coinbase, including a potential indictment from the U.S. Department of Justice regarding money laundering and facilitating trades from Russian entities. But, more importantly, U.S. inflation has come down to 3.2%, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is draining liquidity from the markets.

Pechman also analyzes BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes’s claims that the Bitcoin bull market began in March. Hayes pinpoints the Silicon Valley Bank fallout and the subsequent intervention by the U.S. Treasury Department as the turning points for the crypto market.

Pechman agrees with Hayes but raises the issue of the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against other major foreign currencies, such as the euro or the Swiss franc, and now sits at the same level as six months prior. Pechman says investors have realized that other countries would likely collapse before the U.S. in the event of a global economic recession.

Ultimately, Pechman believes it doesn’t matter to the Federal Reserve if salvaging the banks could trigger economic turmoil, given that U.S. Treasurys and the U.S. dollar are still considered the safest options.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

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