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Altcoins a ‘relatively huge’ risk as days of big returns are gone, say analysts

Altcoins have “tactical opportunities” but not the massive gains seen in previous cycles, says 10xResearch head of research Markus Thielen.

The high-risk, high-reward theory of altcoins might be tilting toward the former as big gains are now less likely due to weak narratives driving the crypto market, say crypto analysts.

“While tactical opportunities exist, the era of 100x returns may well be behind us,” 10xResearch head of research Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph.

He cautioned that despite the market anticipating an altcoin bull market this year, “retail participation remains subdued, and few new projects have emerged that captivate non-crypto-native traders.”

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Hong Kong could be a ‘tailwind’ for lagging crypto activity in Asia: Chainalysis

Crypto activity in East Asia fell from its perch after China began its crusade against crypto in 2019. Recent moves by Hong Kong could help reverse that trend, said the blockchain analytics firm.

Recent crypto advancements in Hong Kong could provide a “potential tailwind” to lift crypto activity in the East Asian region, which has mainly suffered from a China-wide ban on trading activities since 2019.

Cryptocurrency value received in East Asia amounted to just 8.8% of the world between July 2022 and June 2023, according to an Oct. 2 report from Chainalysis, making it the fifth most active crypto market. However, Chainalysis said Hong Kong’s recent moves could help increase this number.

“A potential tailwind for East Asia comes from Hong Kong, where several crypto initiatives and industry-friendly regulations launched over the past year have fostered bubbling optimism."

Data from Chainalysis reveals that East Asia’s share of crypto transaction value went from around 30% in 2019 to less than 10% by the second quarter of 2022, after a number of crypto-related bans in China.

Share of cryptocurrency transaction value by region, with Eastern Asia colored in yellow. Source: Chainalysis.

However, Chainalysis said there is “bubbling optimism” in Hong Kong, noting that despite its much smaller population, Hong Kong is already an “extremely active crypto market” by raw transaction volume.

Between July 2022 and June 2023, the market received an estimated $64 billion in crypto, compared to $86.4 billion in China, despite having a population of just 0.5% the size of the mainland.

In comments to Chainalysis, Merton Lam of CryptoHK, an over-the-counter digital asset trading center in Hong Kong, said that cryptocurrencies are becoming a staple in the investment portfolios of many banks, private equity firms and high-net-worth individuals that they work with within the region.

In addition, Chinese state-owned businesses have also launched cryptocurrency-focused investment funds of late.

That being said, Dave Chapman of digital asset platform OSL Digital Securities told Chainalysis that while digital assets “are not going away” in East Asia — it’s still too early to say whether Hong Kong’s crypto ambitions mean China has fully embraced the cryptocurrency space.

“The promotion of Hong Kong as a potential crypto hub is not necessarily indicative of the Chinese government’s stance on crypto [...] This could be viewed as an exploratory approach to understanding digital assets without loosening mainland policies.”

Related: Hong Kong retains top crypto-ready position for two consecutive years

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Matrixport’s Head of Research and Strategy Markus Thielen said Hong Kong will serve as a “testing ground” for broader cryptocurrency adoption in China.

However, Hong Kong is making a big play in one particular area which other states haven’t managed to capitalize on, says Thielen:

“Crucially, there is a genuine interest to attract the crypto asset management industry which has so far been a missing piece of the puzzle as most crypto firms tend to be labeled as service providers, instead of being the end-user of crypto.”

Magazine: Are DAOs overhyped and unworkable? Lessons from the front lines

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US institutions account for 85% of Bitcoin buying in ‘very positive sign’ — Matrixport

Matrixport’s head of research and strategy suggests the industry will soon see layer 1 and other altcoins outperforming relative to Bitcoin.

Institutional investors are “not giving up on crypto,” with recent data pointing to as much as 85% of Bitcoin buying being the result of American institutional players, according to Matrixport’s chief strategist. 

Markus Thielen, the head of research and strategy at the financial services firm, told Cointelegraph the evidence shows that institutions are not “giving up on crypto” and is an indicator that we might be entering a new “crypto bull market now.”

The data was shared in a Jan. 27 report from Matrixport, which suggests that it can be distinguished whether a digital asset is more favorable by retail or institutional investors at any given time based on whether that asset is performing well in the United States or Asian trading hours.

The report stated that if an asset that trades 24 hours “performs well” during U.S. trading hours, it indicates that U.S. institutions are buying it, while an asset that sees growth during Asian trading hours indicates that Asian retail investors are buying it.

The report cited that Bitcoin (BTC) is up 40% this year, with 35% of those returns occurring during U.S. trading hours, meaning there is an “85% contribution” associated with U.S.-based investors, indicating that U.S. institutions are buyers of Bitcoin right now.

Thielen added that previous data shows that institutions typically first start buying Bitcoin before investing in other cryptocurrencies. He noted:

“If history is any guide, then we should see the outperformance of layer 1 and altcoins relative to Bitcoin.”

While the report highlighted that news regarding other projects positively impacted token prices such as Lido and Aptos, the crypto rally only started once the U.S. inflation data was released on Jan. 12.

It was also mentioned that Ethereum (ETH) appears to be performing well during U.S. hours, indicating “institutional flows” into the cryptocurrency, however Aptos is doing well around the clock.

“Aptos is seeing a mix of strong returns during U.S. trading hours AND during Asia trading hours.”

The report concluded by stating that this “should be a very positive sign for Bitcoin” as institutional adoption continues.

Related: Data shows pro Bitcoin traders want to feel bullish, but the rally to $23K wasn’t enough

In earlier comments to Cointelegraph, economist Lyn Alden believes that Bitcoin is currently playing “a bit of catch-up,” getting back to where it would have been without the FTX collapse occurring.

Alden warned that there is “considerable danger ahead” for the second half of 2023, citing liquidity conditions being “good right now” in part because of the U.S as a major factor.

Alden explained that as the U.S. Treasury is drawing down its cash balance to keep the country’s debt levels low, it pushes “liquidity into the financial system.”

Meanwhile, popular trader and market commentator TechDev posted a Twitter update on Jan. 26 showing the price correlation between Bitcoin and Gold, stating that if Bitcoin continues to follow the price of Gold, it might even “crack the $50,000 mark.”

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Crypto Twitter calls for calm after wETH insolvency joke goes viral

Ethereum bull Anthony Sassano and Gnosis co-founder Martin Köppelmann were among those explaining later that the Wrapped Ethereum (wETH) FUD was part of an inside joke.

An inside joke about the “insolvency” of Wrapped Ethereum (wETH) over the weekend has forced influencers to explain it was just a “shitpost” after members of the community took it as real. 

The wETH insolvency FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) seemingly began to make the rounds on Nov. 26, with false rumors alleging that wETH isn’t backed 1:1 by Ether (ETH) and is insolvent.

Blockchain developer and contributor to the ERC-721A token standard “cygaar” was one of the first to spread the joke, before confirming in a subsequent post that it was in fact a “shitpost” to see who was reading his content.

In fact, only a day before, cygaar tweeted that “WETH cannot ever go insolvent” and that “WETH will always be swappable 1:1 with ETH.”

Ethereum bull and host of The Daily Gwei Anthony Sassano also joined in on the wETH joke with his own parody post on Nov. 27, but had to clarify later that the initial post was “shitpost/ meme” after reading the replies.

Gnosis co-founder Martin Köppelmann was another one to get in on the joke, claiming in a Nov. 27 Tweet to his 38,800 Twitter followers that wETH is no longer fully backed by ETH and that “we might see a bank run on redeeming WETH soon.”

Hours later, he said he hoped the joke “did not cause too much confusion,” linking to a thread that explained the joke for those who weren't in the know.

Related: What is wrapped Ethereum (wETH) and how does it work?

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, the head of research at crypto financial services platform Matrixport has also confirmed that there is little to no truth to the WETH “shitposts.”

wETH’s logic is automated by smart contracts and it isn’t controlled by a centralized entity, he explained:

“I am not too concerned about WETH as it's a smart contract and not stored by a centralized exchange. Since the smart contract is open source, it can be checked for bugs or flaws.”

On the other hand, recent FUD against Wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC) could be warranted, said Thielen, referring to rumors that FTX may have printed 100,000 wBTC out of thin air, as FTX’s Nov. 11 bankruptcy filing does not show any BTC on FTX’s balance sheet.

“WBTC is completely different and here the concerns are valid,” Thielen explained. 

wETH is a wrapped version of ETH that is pegged at a 1:1 ratio, which aims to solve interoperability issues on Ethereum-compatible blockchains by allowing for ERC-20 tokens to be exchanged more easily.

wETH was introduced as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network for this reason, as ETH follows different rules and thus cannot be directly traded with ERC-20 tokens.

Despite the lighthearted humor behind the jokes, “Dankrad Feist” suggested to his 15,500 Twitter followers in a Nov. 27 Tweet that the comments should be marked “more clearly as jokes” as it “may not be obvious to outsiders.”

wETH is currently priced at $1,196, at a current ratio of 0.999:1 to ETH, according to data from Coinmarketcap.

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You can now search ETH addresses on Google — But what about Bitcoin?

While Google’s feature appears to be a good thing for crypto adoption, a CIO says a move from Apple would make the “crypto industry go from 100 miles an hour to 250 miles in a heartbeat.”

Google’s latest crypto feature enables some Ethereum wallet addresses to have their ETH balances tracked straight off of the Google search engine — saving the need to make the trip to Etherscan. 

The feature was first made public by the Principal of Google Ventures Han Hua in an Oct. 11 Twitter post.

But Cointelegraph’s attempt to search for a Bitcoin address revealed a no-show on Google. Angel Investor Stephen Cole was not impressed, tweeting "Does Google not know about Bitcoin?"

Cointelegraph also tried several different Ethereum addresses — most of which didn’t work. So the functionality is very limited at present and may improve over time.

Nonetheless, recent efforts suggest Google is playing a key role in on-boarding internet users to the world of blockchain-based services and Web3.

The new feature comes in addition to Google’s partnership with crypto exchange Coinbase on Oct. 11 to allow its customers to pay for cloud services in crypto, which is expected to take effect in early 2023.

Google also got in on the Ethereum Merge hype by embedding a countdown ticker until the point at which Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Related: Near Protocol partners with Google Cloud to support Web3 devs

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Chief Investment Officer Markus Thielen of digital asset services platform Matrixport said we shouldn’t be surprised by Google’s efforts in the Web3 space as both commercial banks and Web2 companies continue to do an “enormous amount of work in the background,” adding:

“This crypto winter is clearly different as established firms continue to deploy their balance sheet [to crypto investments] and might even leapfrog the incumbents.”

But while Google’s efforts are welcome, Thielen believes a mass adoption event for Web3 could come “when the iPhone can be used as a crypto wallet.”

“If and when this happens, the crypto industry will go from 100 miles an hour to 250 miles in a heartbeat,” he added.

Community reaction

Vittorio Rivabella, Developer Relations Manager of Web3 development platform Alchemy said the news of Google’s new Ethereum address search feature was “Bullish.”

However, SadPanda.blockchain, the former Editor in Chief at Web3ArtBlog.NFT, wasn’t so thrilled with the news, arguing that Google “will sell our blockchain data to advertisers in order to target us via our wallets!”

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Experts reveal what Tesla’s $936M sell-off means for Bitcoin

Telsa CEO noted that the sale “should not be taken as a verdict on Bitcoin” and is “certainly open to increasing our Bitcoin holdings in the future.”

Crypto industry experts are largely unfazed by Tesla’s decision to sell 75% of its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, saying it’s a fairly typical strategy for companies to improve cash flow during economic slowdowns. 

On Wednesday, the electric vehicle manufacturer revealed that it had sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings in Q2, adding $936 million in fiat to its balance sheet.

During a conference call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk noted that the sale “should not be taken as a verdict on Bitcoin,” explaining that the move was due to liquidity concerns given the continued Covid lockdowns in China.

“The reason we sold a bunch of our Bitcoin holdings was that we were uncertain as to when the Covid lockdowns in China would alleviate. So it was important for us to maximize our cash position.”

“We are certainly open to increasing our Bitcoin holdings in the future.”

Asked by investors during the earnings call whether he saw Bitcoin as a long-term asset, Musk said the cryptocurrency was a “sideshow to the sideshow” of Tesla’s main goal, which is “to accelerate the advent of stable energy.”

“Cryptocurrency is not something we think of a lot,” he said.

Markus Thielen, chief investment officer at Singapore-based digital asset manager IDEG told Cointelegraph that Tesla likely sold off its Bitcoin as it was “seen as a distraction from their core business.”

“I would not be surprised if Tesla keeps nibbling in Bitcoin when Bitcoin stabilizes, otherwise they would have sold 100%.”

Comparison site Finder’s share trading expert Kylie Purcell explained that the electric car manufacturer hasn’t been alone in its decision to “shore up capital in cash currencies.”

“With the world heading into an economic slowdown and possibly a recession, it’s not unusual for investors and companies to move capital away from more volatile assets into fiat currency,” she noted.

She also added that while the price of Bitcoin dipped following the announcement, there are already signs of recovery.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin’s price fell approximately 2.6% following Tesla’s announcement and has returned to $23,299 at the time of writing — tracking close to its one-month high, meaning that the crypto community may not have been too concerned by the announcement.

The muted reaction to the sale played out differently to the announcement in February last year that Telsa had scooped up $1.5 billion in BTC to add to its balance sheet and was planning on  accepting Bitcoin as payment for certain products (though this was later scrapped).

The news at the tim saw Bitcoin’s price immediately jump by almost $3,000, bringing the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high above $43,000.

Related: Bitcoin price dips under $23K after earnings report reveals Tesla sold 75% of its BTC

Swyftx’s head of strategic partnerships, Tommy Honan told Cointelegraph that Tesla’s decision to buy Bitcoin last year was “as important a moment as you can imagine for digital assets.”

“It almost gave other businesses permission to put crypto on their balance sheets and we saw a lot of big institutional investors, as well as small and mid-cap companies flood into the market from that point.”

“Musk said the sale wasn’t a verdict on Bitcoin, just a cash play, and it looks like the market has taken him at his word. Bitcoin’s price has stabilized over the last 24 hours and we’d be surprised if other big investors followed suit, especially given the current price of Bitcoin.”

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