Galaxy Digital CEO ‘wouldn’t be surprised’ if Bitcoin hit $30K this quarter

February 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Galaxy Digital CEO ‘wouldn’t be surprised’ if Bitcoin hit K this quarter

$30k btc

Recent positive Bitcoin price action has been linked to a slowdown of U.S. inflation, Mike Novogratz thinks the price rally could sustain until the end of March.

Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO, Mike Novogratz, believes there's a chance Bitcoin (BTC) could return to $30,000 or above before the end of March.

According to a Feb. 15 Bloomberg report Novogratz spoke at a Bank of America conference the same day and said he would’ve been the “happiest guy” if 2022 ended with BTC at $30,000, but added:

“When I look at the price action, when I look at the excitement of the customers calling, the FOMO building up, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were at $30,000 by the end of the quarter.”

The prediction is much lower than others Novogratz has made in the past. The Galaxy CEO once believed Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by the end of 2027 if the United States Federal Reserve kept hiking interest rates.

Announcing #48 of Cointelegraph’s Top 100 influencers in Crypto and Blockchain@novogratz

Former Goldman Sachs partner turned crypto mogul and founder of @galaxyhq, a big investor who acquired @ArgoBlockchain's mining facility, and recently won an auction to buy @GK8_Security. pic.twitter.com/ejpcFzOsYQ
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) February 15, 2023

During Wednesday’s conference, Novogratz again made mention of rate hikes by Fed chair, Jerome Powell, who announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points on Feb. 1. Novogratz said he didn’t expect the fed to change its tune anytime soon:

“What makes me skeptical that we can have the explosive, back-to-the-old highs this year is Chairman Powell. He’s really doing what he says he’s going to do, and I don’t see the Fed pivoting and cutting anytime soon.”

Alongside the Fed’s February rate hike, Powell indicated inflation in the U.S. had begun to slow, which saw Bitcoin shortly spike above $24,000 before declining below $22,000.

Following expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) January figures on Feb. 14, Bitcoin gained nearly 12% in the past 24 hours and hit over $24,700 — its highest level since mid-August 2022 according to Cointelegraph data.

Sentiment towards crypto also appears healthy, with the Crypto Fear and Greed index climbing nine points to 62 out of 100, moving the scale from “neutral” into “greed” territory.

*A one-year chart of the Fear and Greed Index shows its last highest ranking was a score of 60 on Mar. 28, 2022. Source:* *Alternative*

The index hasn’t been above a score of 60 since mid-November 2021, before the price crash that kicked off the 2022 crypto winter.

Bitcoin will still need to gain roughly another 22% by Mar. 31 to reach Novogratz's predicted price.

SBF Was ‘Delusional,’ Will ‘Spend Time in Jail’ Says Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz — ‘He Needs to Be Prosecuted’

December 2, 2022 Bitcoin.com

‘Extreme fear’ as Bitcoin falls below $40K … and then bounces

September 22, 2021 Coin Telegraph

‘Extreme fear’ as Bitcoin falls below K ... and then bounces

Bitfinexed

While many analysts believe Bitcoin is destined for six-figures if support at $40,000 can hold up, others are predicting an imminent bear cycle.

The price of Bitcoin has slumped below $40,000 for the first time in six weeks.

The slide took place near the close of the day on Sept. 21, with BTC prices having drawn down by 16% from nearly $47,300 at the start of the day, to tag a local low of $39,650 at roughly 9pm UTC. The move marked a 25% retracement from BTC’s local highs above $50,000 on Sept. 7.

However, the pullback comes after Bitcoin gained more than 80% since hitting $29,300 on July 20 and then heading into early-September’s highs. Bitcoin has since recovered to trade just above $42,000.

Bitcoin was not alone in suffering a sharp price decline on Sept. 21, with 29 of the top 30 crypto assets by market cap suffering a 24-hour drawdown according to CoinGecko.

According to the crypto Fear & Greed Index, the bearish price action coincides with sentiment of “extreme fear” across the market. Just one month ago, the metric signaled “extreme greed.”

Some of crypto’s outspoken critics have seized on the dip to offer apocalyptic predictions for the markets, with “Mr. Whale” proclaiming to his 300,000 Twitter followers that “the bear market is here.”

The same maxi's who tricked their sheep into buying their Bitcoin bags at $64,000, are now urging them to "buy the dip" and promising a huge rally to $100K.

The bear market is here but they will never admit that because they would lose all of their followers!
— Mr. Whale (@CryptoWhale) September 21, 2021

Notorious gold shill Peter Schiff chimed in, forecasting that the growth of altcoins will soon “overwhelm demand” until “the crypto bubble pops, while Bitfinexed believes the credit woes of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande will threaten Tether’s reserves and the broader crypto markets through systemic risk.

The price plunge also came in the aftermath of SEC chairman Gary Gensler likening stablecoins to poker chips and calling for tightening regulation of the sector.

However, much of Crypto Twitter reports zealous dip-buying in response to the market action, with some analysts asserting Bitcoin is poised for a recovery should prices hold above local support.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz appeared on CNBC to offer that he won’t be feeling “nervous” unless BTC fails to hold above $40,000 and Ether crashes below $2,800. “As long as those [price levels] hold, I think the market’s in good shape,” he added.“

Novogratz is not alone in eying the roughly $40,000 level as a critical support zone for BTC, with popular analyst William Clemente III recently asserting that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $39,000 due to its liquid supply floor and “real-time scarcity.”

Looking toward the fourth-quarter, influencer Lark Davis notes that the final quarter of both 2013 and 2017 saw rallies of more than 300% respectively as past bull cycles crescendoed, and speculated the possible approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States could again send prices flying.

#bitcoin still going to 100k this year, Q4 2013 and Q4 2017 both saw 300% + rallies.

What would make BTC do that again?

A BTC ETF getting approved in the USA.
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 22, 2021

Bitcoin in ‘good shape’ as long as BTC price stays above $40K — Mike Novogratz

September 21, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The veteran Bitcoin bull says he’s not “nervous” about crypto on the back of the institutional investor demand he has witnessed.

Bitcoin (BTC) won’t be making Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz “nervous” unless it dips below $40,000.

In an interview with CNBC on Sept. 21, the infamously bullish investor calmed fears about the latest sell-off across cryptocurrency.

Novogratz on institutions: “I see nothing but engagement and activity”

Despite the macro environment wobbling over China and Bitcoin shedding up to 10% this week, there are few bearish voices among well-known crypto industry commentators.

Novogratz is no different, arguing that the price drop was more so a healthy corrective move for a market that had spent several months in “up-only” mode.

“I think the market got itself a little too long — the China news scared people,” he said, also noting concerns over United States regulatory activity.

For the short term, “very important levels to watch” are $40,000 for Bitcoin and $2,800 for Ethereumu2019s coin, Ether (ETH).

“As long as those hold, I think the market’s in good shape,” he continued.

Looking beyond market action, however, the underlying demand from institutional investors has remained untouched.

“I see nothing but engagement and activity from our investing clients and our corporate clients,” Novogratz added, concluding that he is not nervous about crypto.

Dalio joins Bitcoin “value” debate

Other institutional voices have meanwhile been more tame in recent days.

In a similar media appearance, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates stressed that Bitcoin has a “perceived” rather than intrinsic value, despite being an investor himself.

Regulation, he warned, could still “kill” the cryptocurrency’s fortunes, likewise pointing to the United States.

Dalio has nonetheless softened his stance on Bitcoin considerably since he first began mentioning it in public and making an allocation.

“We can get into philosophical debates about what value is,” Novogratz said about Bitcoin’s true worth.

“A Matisse painting can run $100 million because a small amount of people decide they’re worth $100 million. Over 150 million people around the world that have decided Bitcoin is worth something. That’s enough for me.”

Despite Bitcoin price crash, BTC is the internet of value transfer: Novogratz

September 8, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Retail investors had good reasons to overextend in the crypto market, says billionaire Bitcoin bull Mike Novogratz.

The crypto market is back to major price swings followed by a Bitcoin (BTC) price crash on Tuesday, the day the largest cryptocurrency became legal tender in El Salvador. But it was not unexpected for many crypto veterans, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz.

Speaking to Bloomberg, the billionaire Bitcoin bull said that crypto is still dominated by retail investors, who are “too excited” by the recent interest from institutions like Visa and Amazon.

People are realizing that “crypto is not just Bitcoin being bought as a hedge against bad monetary fiscal policy,” he said. “But maybe, more importantly, it’s Web 3.0. It’s the internet of value transfer.”

Retail investors got too long on leverage for good reason, according to Novogratz, who highlighted recent crypto-friendly news from finance and retail giants, such as Visa buying nonfungible tokens and describing them as a promising medium, and Walmart’s pursuit of a crypto product lead, along with the job postings from Amazon for crypto experts.

“There is a realization that this is a technology and no investor wants to miss the next internet. This is the next internet.”

Novogratz said that investors got too excited and the price drop on Sept. 7 was “a little air being popped out of the balloon.”

As his company Galaxy Digital is planning to complete its acquisition of BitGo, the infrastructure provider of El Salvador’s official Bitcoin wallet, Novogratz also commented on the plagued start of the Chivo wallet.

The state-issued Chivo wallet experienced server capacity errors, but Novogratz believes the technical problems will be resolved over time. He said that the real question is how the system will work in six or 12 weeks, adding that doing such projects at scale is not easy.

Novogratz’s comments align with several analysts who pointed to overleveraged traders after the Bitcoin price crash. The largest cryptocurrency took a sharp dive to $43,000 on Sept. 7, liquidating more than $3.54 billion in derivative markets. BTC is hovering around $45,000 at press time.

China’s miner exodus a ‘big net positive for crypto,’ Mike Novogratz says

July 1, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Despite China's undermining, Bitcoin still exists and survives in lots of ways, Galaxy Digital's CEO says.

As major miners are leaving China one after another following the country’s crackdown on Bitcoin (BTC), Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has echoed other experts in seeing the migration out of China as a positive development.

Novogratz explained on Bloomberg that despite China’s attempt to undermine Bitcoin — like banning mining, banning leverage, and even banning Bitcoin in some places — the original cryptocurrency is still alive and kicking. “Bitcoin still exists and survives in lots of ways,” he said, adding that miners’ migration out of China could be “a big net positive for the ecosystem.”

The last couple of weeks, where the crypto market experienced high volatility with sudden price crashes across the board, was an amazingly successful test for the crypto ecosystem as a whole, according to Novogratz.

“We had a crash,” Novogratz summarized, referring to the 65% drop in Bitcoin price from the all-time highs, adding:

“We didn’t have the plunge protection team. We didn’t have lawsuits. The system worked how it was supposed to work. It is a very robust system that has been built in a small amount of time.”

Speaking on the public perception of the crypto ecosystem, Novogratz singled out Bitcoin as “it carved out its lane” as digital gold. Gold has existed for 3,000 years, he reminded, adding, “I expect Bitcoin to be the digital version of gold for the next 3,000 years.”

Novogratz said that he thinks “Ethereum most likely becomes the second biggest, or maybe even the biggest cryptocurrency one day.” It’s going to be used at the base level of trust, he summarized, “The Web 3.0 where things get built on top of it.” He noted that it has strong competitors like Terra and Solana and it’s not an assured win for Ethereum.

Novogratz also listed more recent additions to the crypto ecosystem, like decentralized finance and nonfungible tokens before concluding:

“This is not us punting on coins with funny names. This is a serious approach to rebuild the financial architecture of the world.”

3 reasons why Ethereum may underperform Bitcoin in the short-term

June 19, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Ether could take longer than 12 months to regain ground versus Bitcoin due to increased uncertainties surrounding the shift to ETH 2.0 and reservations from institutional investors.

Ether (ETH) price outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by 173% from March 28 to May 15. The incredible bull caused the token to reach a $4,380 all-time high. However, as cryptocurrency markets initiated a sharp drop on May 12, the trend started to reverse, and since then, Ether has underperformed by 25%.

Some might say it is a technical adjustment after a strong rally. While this partially explains the move, it excludes some critical factors, including the fast advance of smart-contract network competitors and Bitcoin being adopted as an official currency for the first time.

*Ether / Bitcoin price at Binance. Source: TradingView*

Notice how the ETH/BTC ratio rallied again on June 8, reaching 0.77 despite Ether's price remaining 36% below its all-time high and ranging near $2,800. To understand what could have been driving the ratio, analysts need to analyze Ether and Bitcoin price drivers separately.

Mike Novogratz may have been misinterpreted in his interview

Ether's bull run potentially got an extra leg due to intense praise from institutional investors. Traders could have picked up a sense of urgency, known as FOMO, and promptly shifted their Bitcoin exposure towards the leading altcoin.

On May 13, New Yorker magazine published an interview with Mike Novogratz, the founder, and CEO of Galaxy Digital. In the conversation, Novogratz said:

"All of a sudden, you have decentralized finance and NFTs both on Ethereum at the same time roughly, with wild accelerating growth."

Novogratz was then questioned on how much higher Ether could reach, to which he answered:

"You know, it's dangerous to give predictions on the highs. But could it get to $5,000? Of course it could."

While an Ethereum holder might have interpreted it as a prediction, others could have understood it as a wild guess, likely depending on general crypto market conditions.

However, roughly a week later, a report from Goldman Sachs revealed the global investment bank believed that Ether had a "high chance of overtaking Bitcoin as a dominant store of value." Interestingly, one of the main quotes in the report was directly from Novogratz's interview with the New Yorker.

At its peak, Binance Chain controlled 40% of DEX volume

While Ethereum has kept its 80% dominance on net value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) has reached a 40% market share on DEX exchanges.

*PancakeSwap DEX daily volume vs. top 10. Source: DeBank*

The successful growth of the DeFi industry and non fungible token (NFT) markets caused intense congestion on the Ethereum network, raising median fees to $37 in mid-May. That bottleneck triggered an activity exodus to competing networks, and PancakeSwap was best positioned to capture that flow.

To make things worse, important DeFi projects expanded to Binance Smart Chain, including yield aggregator Harvest Finance and decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch. Investors quickly realized that the trend could continue as the competing smart-contract network provided an easy solution for dApps looking for cheaper alternatives.

No country is adopting the 'Ethereum standard'

Bitcoin might have had a subpar performance over the past 30 days because it has failed to break the $42,000 resistance multiple times. However, a major milestone was achieved when El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender on June 12.

After the Central American country made the decision law, a handful of other Central and South American countries began discussing the advantages of taking a similar path.

Ethereum is undertaking a redesign that will change the issuing rate and how entities get paid to secure the network by moving away from the Proof of Work model. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is making sure that every upgrade is backward-compatible and maintaining its strict monetary policy.

That is the main reason why Ether will not outperform Bitcoin over the next 12 months, or at least until there's a better understanding of how Ethereum network dominance of smart contracts will be.

Professional investors avoid uncertainties at all costs, and cryptocurrency markets already present plenty of that. There's just no reason for institutional investors to ignore the risks while competing networks eat Ethereum's lunch.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.