Popular crypto analyst and BTC bull PlanB is outlining Bitcoin’s worst-case scenario for the month of July. The widely followed analyst, who has gained a massive following for being the first to apply the stock-to-flow model (S2F) to Bitcoin, says the S2F is in a “make or break” phase, where it will either be further […]
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It’s make or break time for S2F as BTC teeters on the bounds of the famous model.
PlanB, the brainchild behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, has revealed he is feeling “uneasy” about his renowned price predictions due to the recent downtrend in markets.
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which has predicted BTC prices with some degree of accuracy over the past two years, has been called into question by some of his followers in a recent Twitter poll.
The anonymous analyst surveyed his followers on June 21 asking them what price they thought BTC would reach by the end of the year. He used the results to compare them to a similar survey in March when market sentiment was overwhelmingly bullish.
Of the 124,595 respondents to the latest poll, 41% thought that BTC prices would remain below $100K by the end of the year, which would invalidate the S2F model. That’s two and a half times the 16% in the previous poll who thought the lazer eyes crowd would be disappointed this year.
What a difference 3 months make!
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 22, 2021
41% now thinks bitcoin will stay below $100K in 2021 (invalidating S2F model) vs 16% in March (when BTC was $55K). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb
PlanB who originally published the price predictor in March 2019, pinned a message admitting that even he feels a little “uneasy” when BTC prices deviate from the model. However, the analyst noted that the model had managed to hold previously in March 2019, again in March 2020 when the pandemic caused a global market meltdown, and once more in September 2020.
Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like Mar 2019 when I published S2F, or Mar 2020 Covid, or Sep 2020 with BTC stuck at $10K) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated? pic.twitter.com/iIjTC2Ncy3
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 23, 2021
Preston Pysh, the founder of The Investors Podcast Network, commented that it was difficult for a model to account for a blizzard of bad news that has accelerated the market downturn.
“You mean your model doesn't account for 40%+ of mining rigs getting banned & forced to turn-off & relocate to various parts of the world...and with no forward notice to companies/entitles for the extraordinary expense to their heavily denominated BTC treasuries/retained earnings.”
The model is a calculation of a ratio based on the existing supply of Bitcoin against how much is entering circulation. The scarcer the asset becomes due to the four-year halving cycles the higher the price. PlanB’s model predicts an average price of $288K over the next three years.
Related: $288K BTC price 'still in play' says PlanB as Bloomberg champions Bitcoin halving
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained 2.9% over the past 24 hours to trade at $34,450 according to CoinGecko. The asset is currently 45% down from its all-time high of $64,800 on April 14.
A survey conducted by the creator of the Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) price model reveals that most investors no longer believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 this year. The S2F model, traditionally applied to commodities like gold and silver, predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases […]
The post Majority of Crypto Investors No Longer Believe in PlanB’s Big Bitcoin Prediction: Survey appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
The only way is (more or less) up for BTC price action, the analyst insists, offering a potential 2021 high of $450,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) could trade at an eye-watering $450,000 by the end of 2021, while $135,000 would be the "worst case scenario."
That's according to analyst PlanB, who on June 20 released his latest sentiment-busting bullish BTC price prognosis.
Well known as the creator of the stock-to-flow Bitcoin price forecasting models, PlanB has repeatedly bucked the overall market mood in recent weeks and months.
Even as BTC/USD sees multiple retests of lows from months past, the analyst — and his models — remain firmly fixed on a far brighter mid-term goal for the largest cryptocurrency.
Now, even the "worst-case scenario" for Bitcoin would still see it trade at $47,000 in August. A slight reversal in September places the minimum target at $43,000 for that month, only to be followed by $63,000 in October — near current all-time highs.
Things then heat up, with $98,000 on the cards in November and a giant $135,000 by the end of the year.
As such, Bitcoin is still four months from re-matching its all-time high — a prediction that nonetheless beats some bearish models currently circulating from traders.
These include Josh Rager, who this week claimed that $64,500 may well have been this price cycle's top — something PlanB has specifically renounced on multiple occasions.
"Wait until you seen my base case and best case scenarios! OK, a hint: best case Dec $450K," he added in comments about what Bitcoin could be capable of in 2021.
As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, the weekend is seeing problematic moves by Bitcoin.
Sunday's low stood at $33,337 on Bitstamp at the time of writing, with BTC/USD shedding 5% on the day and reversing most of the previous week's gains.
Calls for a further leg down are growing from various sources, with Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," being the latest high-profile voice going short.
"Biggest bubble in world history getting bigger," he warned about the overall macro market climate on Saturday.
"Biggest crash in world history coming. Buying more gold and silver. Waiting for Bitcoin to drop to $24 k. Crashes best time to get rich. Take care."
Such an event would echo March 2020, with commentators continuing to note the constant all-time highs on equities markets regardless of noises from central banks.
PlanB, the pseudonymous crypto analyst who has amassed a large following with his stock-to-flow model (S2F), says that his $288,000 BTC price prediction is still intact. In a new tweet, PlanB doubles down on his massive price target for Bitcoin despite the asset’s crash to $30,000 and its failure to reclaim $40,000 since the drop. […]
The post $288,000 BTC Is Still in Play, Says Top Analyst PlanB appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Popular Bitcoin analyst PlanB says his widely used Bitcoin price prediction model is at a crucial level of support. The stock-to-flow (S2F) model, traditionally used to track the performance of commodities like precious metals, compares an asset’s price to its available supply. Plan B has amassed a large following due to the accuracy of the S2F […]
The post Is PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model About To Break? Crypto Traders Reassess Bold Bitcoin Forecast appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A majority of Bitcoin investors that held the cryptocurrency during its turbulent periods stand profitable.
Unloading Bitcoin (BTC) spot positions when it starts crashing violently upon forming its all-time highs is a bad investment call, at least according to its historical price action.
The flagship cryptocurrency's eleven-year lifetime has seen it undergoing many bullish and bearish cycles. The BTC/USD exchange rate typically rises parabolically. It later trims more than half of those gains down as profitable traders sell the top. But, at the same time, traders who buy bitcoin around its local top suffer longer periods of losses.
However, the overall historic price trajectory of Bitcoin remains skewed to the upside.
The cryptocurrency bottoms out after every bullish-to-bearish cycle and rebounds all over again to seek new all-time highs.
Its weekly timeframe chart shows the price forming consecutive higher highs separated by years — $500 in November 2015, $768 in June 2016, $2,998 in June 2017, $19,891 in December 2017, $41,986 in January 2021, and $64,899 in April 2021.
PlanB, the brain behind the widely-circulated Stock to Flow model, which predicts the Bitcoin price at $288,000 by 2024, referred to the cryptocurrency's ability to return profits to patient investors in a tweet Friday morning. The pseudonymous analyst noted that not a single investor who held Bitcoin for more than four years ever suffered losses.
He cited the 200-weekly moving average curve as an invisible price floor that held the bitcoin market's bullish bias higher during bearish corrections. The BTC/USD exchange rate tested the said support wave on its downside moves, only to rebound later to newer highs.
The statement appeared as the Bitcoin price showed signs of waning bullish momentum. The BTC/USD exchange rate topped near $65,000 in mid-April and corrected to as low as $30,000 on Coinbase almost a month later. As of May 28, the pair's bid among traders was near $37,000.
Yes, if you buy bitcoin you buy to hold for a long term or forever. That is how the game is played. Now todays sellers are April buyers, that is unusual, that is weak hands.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 28, 2021
Meanwhile, PlanB's long-term projects make Bitcoin appears like an asset that would keeping siphoning capital out of traditional markets. The analyst wrote earlier that he anticipates people to buy the cryptocurrency for its underlying scarcity — there can be only 21 million BTC in existence.
"Silver, gold, countries with [a] negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey, etc.), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 yrs" will influence people to seek safety in bitcoin, wrote PlanB in his 2019 paper, "Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity," as he envisioned a trillion-dollar market cap for the cryptocurrency.
The model prompts investors who bought Bitcoin at around $65,000 to hold the asset even if it takes more than four years for them to make their investments even. That is applicable only if Bitcoin continues to follow the stock-to-flow price model trajectory.
A stock-to-flow model is commonly used to measure commodity scarcity but may also be applied to #Bitcoin to generate actionable insights around $BTC's supply. Learn more here: https://t.co/xZHtx86y0R pic.twitter.com/wF3c1JEB6H
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) September 2, 2020
A logarithmic curve chart based on the same bullish model anticipates the BTC/USD rates to fall to $20,000 or lower. The downside target appears after sketching a Fibonacci graph between the curve's upper and lower bands. Its uppermost deviation sits near $111,590, while the lowest one is around $17,150.
The logarithmic curve's historical significance in predicting price bottoms and tops makes it relevant enough for investors to realize their potential long and short targets.
Despite their accuracy, the stock-to-flow model and its derivatives have attracted criticism for its unrealistic bullish portrayals of scarcer assets. Charlie Morris, co-founder, and CIO of crypto data firm ByteTree, told CoinTelegraph in November last year that bitcoin's lower supply against higher demand does not guarantee higher prices.
People will still be able to sell bitcoin from existing active supply to meet the market's demand, argued Morris.
Nico Cordeiro, the chief investment officer and fund manager at Strix Leviathan, also criticized the core assertion of scarcity-based Bitcoin pricing models, noting that no evidence suggests that supply dictates the U.S. dollar market valuation of monetary goods (gold, silver, or Bitcoin).
The past performance is not a guarantee of future results. But with Bitcoin gaining momentum among institutional circles in the wake of lower-yield investment safe-haven alternatives (government bonds, the U.S. dollar, etc.), it looks appealing to many to just “hodl” the token until further notice.
Fortune favors the HODL.
— Dan Hedl (@danheld) May 28, 2021
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The crypto analyst known for first applying the stock-to-flow model (S2F) to Bitcoin is undeterred by the top cryptocurrency’s brutal price action. Bitcoin tracker PlanB is sharing his thoughts on the asset’s trajectory, after Bitcoin dipped roughly $8,000 in the span of one hour this week, sinking to $30,414, according to CoinGecko. The S2F, traditionally […]
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