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Prediction markets

Vitalik explores potential of ‘info finance’ as ETH tops $3K

Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin proposes “info finance” as a pioneering framework to harness blockchain and AI for factual insights.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has introduced “info finance,” a new concept aimed at transforming how information is captured, validated and shared across multiple sectors.

In his recent blog post, “From Prediction Markets to Info Finance,” Buterin explores how blockchain technology could help aggregate, organize and distribute insights more effectively.

According to Buterin, “Info finance is a discipline where you (i) start from a fact that you want to know, and then (ii) deliberately design a market to optimally elicit that information from market participants.”

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Prediction Markets Give Trump the Edge on Election Day

Prediction Markets Give Trump the Edge on Election DayRecent numbers from prediction markets suggest that former President Donald Trump is holding a substantial edge over Vice President Kamala Harris. Battle for the White House Bettors have shown a consistent shift in support for Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. election race, leaving Kamala Harris trailing in their forecasts. As of 8 a.m. ET […]

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Polymarket claims to have identified Trump whale

According to the current Polymarket 2024 US election odds, former President Trump is favored to win all six US swing states.

Spokespeople for Polymarket claim to have identified the whale responsible for $28 million in pro-Trump trading positions as one unnamed French citizen with a seasoned background in finance and trading.

According to a piece in The New York Times DealBook, company representatives told the outlet that four separate accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — belong to the trader.

Company spokespeople also said they found no evidence of market manipulation during the investigation, noting that the trader intentionally spread his bets across smaller positions to avoid moving the market erratically.

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Bitcoin Betting Is Launching an Unstoppable DeFi App for Sports Betting and Prediction Markets With No KYC

Bitcoin Betting Is Launching an Unstoppable DeFi App for Sports Betting and Prediction Markets With No KYCBitcoin Betting is launching its cutting-edge DeFi app, designed for sports betting and prediction markets. The app targets semi-professional sports bettors who value privacy, high limits, great odds and peace of mind, knowing that their funds are secure and can always be withdrawn within seconds on the Ethereum blockchain. With no KYC requirements, identity management […]

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CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC Meeting

CME Fedwatch Favors Half-Point Cut Ahead of FOMC MeetingIn just 40 days, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will gather to decide whether the central bank will lower the benchmark interest rate. This pivotal moment occurs two days after the 2024 U.S. Election Day. As it stands, CME futures data suggests that a half-point reduction is currently viewed as more probable than […]

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Betting Markets and Polls Show Harris Ahead of Trump as Election Nears

Betting Markets and Polls Show Harris Ahead of Trump as Election NearsWith only 44 days remaining until the U.S. election, the blockchain-powered predictions market Polymarket shows Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead in a wager against former President Donald Trump. As of Sunday, Sept. 22, Harris holds 52%, with Trump close on her heels at 47%. Harris Tops Trump in Polls and Prediction Markets as Countdown […]

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Prediction markets are the killer blockchain app we’ve been waiting for

As markets continue to evolve and integrate with Web3 — from DeFi to gaming — we're likely to see an explosion of creativity.

In 2024, the blockchain world is at a turning point. Although big institutions are starting to see the value in this technology, blockchain-native prediction markets are emerging as the game-changing crossover "killer app."

The most exciting part is how these markets can provide accessible, relevant information about current events to everyone. This shift lets people tap into the “wisdom of the crowd” and play a role in shaping our understanding of what’s to come.

In the book "Superforecasting," the authors suggest that some people have a natural talent for making accurate predictions. And with Web3 — which is intended to return value in the Internet experience to the users, it’s now possible to recognize and reward these "superforecasters" with crypto incentives.

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Vitalik Buterin: Bullish on Google sign-in, bearish on duels to the death

Buterin says prediction markets are better for settling beef, but Elon Musk says he’s packing historical heat.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently raised some eyebrows on social media after offering his soft support for Google’s automatic sign-in feature. But his post on dueling to the death received a lot more attention. 

Buterin’s platform of choice appears to be Farcaster, where he interacts with other users on a variety of topics. In mid-August, the popular developer hosted what he referred to as an impromptu “AMA” (ask me anything), during which the topic of third-party authentication services, such as Google Sign-in, was brought up. 

At the time, Buterin expressed concern over the implications of “normalizing” the idea of using services such as “sign in with Google” in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. “I think that’s really bad,” he wrote. However, he followed up by describing a scenario where sign-in services could serve as bridges to secure systems via under-the-hood account abstraction. 

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Trump Maintains Slight Advantage in Election Odds on Polymarket After Harris Interview 

Trump Maintains Slight Advantage in Election Odds on Polymarket After Harris Interview After a 40-day interview hiatus, Vice President Kamala Harris has finally given her first Q&A session since President Joe Biden announced he won’t seek re-election in 2024. According to Polymarket’s election betting odds, former President Donald Trump is currently edging ahead, leading by a modest 1 percentage point. At the moment, Trump holds a 50% […]

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Polymarket Wager Shows Trump Taking the Lead in Nail-Biting 2024 Election Bet 

Polymarket Wager Shows Trump Taking the Lead in Nail-Biting 2024 Election Bet On Aug. 22, 2024, Polymarket odds showed former President Donald Trump leading in the prediction market that pits him against Kamala Harris for the 2024 presidential election. As of 8:19 a.m. EDT on Thursday, Trump held a 53% chance of victory, edging out Harris, who currently sits at 46%. Polymarket and Several Other Betting Platforms […]

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