prediction

‘World War III Has Begun,’ Says Gerald Celente; Plus, Long-Term BTC Predictions and Scorching US Inflation — Bitcoin.com News Week in Review

July 17, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin to make new all-time-highs within 24 months: Coinshares CSO

July 13, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Demirors however said she certainly expects “more pain ahead” for tech stocks and crypto as we head closer to recession.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have further to fall, but Coinshares chief strategy officer Meltem Demirors believes the top cryptocurrency will reach new all-time highs within the next 24 months.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on July 11, Demirors noted that Bitcoin has always been a “cyclical asset” with drawdowns from peak to trough at 80 to 90% historically.

With Bitcoin currently sitting at about 65% down from its all-time highs in November 2021, Demirors believes “there is still room for some downward correction.”

However Demirors noted there has been strong support around $20,000 and that she did not expect Bitcoin to fall below $14,000. She predicted the pain would be a distant memory by 2024, saying:

“In the next 24 months, we will see new all-time highs in Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin is currently priced at $19,401, down 2% in 24 hours and down 72% from its all-time high.

A reversal may be some time off however, given Demirors can see “no near upside catalysts” — which could signal more pain in store for weaker crypto projects.

“We obviously had a lot of liquidations, a lot of insolvencies that had a massive impact on the market. [...] We're talking about $10, $20, $30 billion of capital that has basically evaporated overnight.”

“[We] certainly expect more pain ahead for tech stocks, growth, and also crypto.”

Demiror said she expected a large number of crypto assets to be wiped out during the bear market, similar to what has been seen in tech stocks.

“There's a very long, long tail of crypto assets that I think will go to zero, that doesn't really have any long-term prospect as we've seen with so many tech stocks as well.”

Louis Schoeman, managing director at broker comparison site Forex Suggest, has a similar view and in a recent 9News report predicted that the current crypto downturn could kill off as much as 90 percent of all crypto projects.

"This is a cleansing process," Schoeman said, adding that only the strongest crypto projects will survive this bear market.

"But it also serves as a massive opportunity for many no-coiners to enter the crypto market for the first time. Fortune favors the brave in crypto right now."

Last month, billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban said he doesn’t expect the crypto bear market to be over until there’s a better focus on applications with business-focused utility.

Cuban also believes mergers between different protocols and blockchains will eventually see the crypto industry consolidate, as “that’s what happens in every industry.”

Key Bitcoin chart ‘will confirm bottom is in’ by July 15, says trader

July 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

It's all about two moving averages crossing over as proof that BTC price action is done with the dip.

Bitcoin (BTC) is due to give a definitive signal that a macro bottom is in this month, one analyst has concluded.

In a Twitter thread on July 6, popular commentator Wolf eyed key moving average data as proof that BTC price action will not be going lower.

Key chart crossover eyed as end to bear market losses

Amid repeated calls for BTC/USD to revisit levels not seen since Q4 2020, one simple historical trend is now saying that the pair has already seen its latest macro lows.

Analyzing the 3-day chart, Wolf argued that the 100-day moving average (MA) crossing the 200MA will act as a price floor signal — just like in previous bear markets.

“Negative 3d MA100 will cross positive 3d MA200 by half July, that would confirm that bottom is in,” he wrote.

Specifically, the crossover of the two MAs is due on or by July 15 — in just a week’s time — after which future trajectory should be confirmed. Should Bitcoin avoid major downside in the meantime, $17,600 will thus remain as the latest long-term BTC price bottom.

Negative 3d MA100 will cross positive 3d MA200 by half July, that would confirm that bottom is in. pic.twitter.com/WgPMUkWIoy
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) July 7, 2022

Despite historical precedent, such an outcome is nonetheless far from certain. Prior to the July 15 deadline, crypto markets will have to weather an ongoing macro economic storm, which has so far proved deadly for risk assets across the board.

July 13 will be of particular interest to market participants, this date marking the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States for the month of June.

As Cointelegraph reported, inflation is already at 40-year highs, and CPI readouts have shown a consistent uptrend throughout 2022.

The faster inflation is shown to be accelerating, the more likely a reaction from the Federal Reserve, with monetary tightening having a direct negative impact on risk asset performance.

Moving averages stack up as resistance

BTC/USD meanwhile circled $20,500 at the time of writing on July 7, approaching weekly highs.

In a thread of his own on July 6, analyst Keith Alan flagged various other daily, weekly and monthly MAs as zones of interest should Bitcoin manage to sustain upwards momentum.

"Continued rejections at the 21 DMA would indicate there isn't enough bullish sentiment to push higher, which brings downside targets into focus," he explained.

He noted, however, that should a resistance/support flip (R/S) occur, the 50-month MA would come into play, followed by the essential 200-week MA which has formed a key focus in prior bear markets.

1/8 Yesterday #Bitcoin retested the 21-Day Moving Average. After reclaiming it briefly, price fell back down, marking another failed attempt. Price remains in range of another retest. Here's a on why this level warrants some attention. #NFA pic.twitter.com/gfbWBXtTRk
— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) July 6, 2022

As of July 7, the 21-day MA, 50-month MA and 200-week MA stood at $20,300, $21,570 and $22,560 respectively, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

$100K BTC Predictions, Peter Schiff on Recession and Bitcoin, Bill Gates Slams NFTs — Bitcoin.com News Week in Review

June 19, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

June 3, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bounces to .7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

Analysis

United States stock markets provide the backdrop for reversal in Bitcoin as $30,000 manages to hold.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Wall Street provides short-term relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating.

The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.

Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.

Potentially interesting. #BTC / $NDQ pic.twitter.com/i0k8oEyhw3
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022

Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi meanwhile issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.

My current working theory for #SPX and markets in general is this. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spot

I believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST https://t.co/o7uv2b40BF pic.twitter.com/TOOn6KP9Th
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022

Bitcoin itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.

Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.

“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile added on his short-term strategy.

“Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.

Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs "fresh take"

Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.

Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.

While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak which he argued would serve to increase its utility.

“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.

Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.

The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022

“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued.

PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.

As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.

Bitcoin ‘death cross’ data hints 43% drop due in BTC price bear market

May 20, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Based on historical tendencies, $22,700 could now mark the next "generational bottom" for Bitcoin, new analysis says.

Bitcoin (BTC) may fall more than 40% from last week's bottom, new data warns as one analyst confronts what he says is now a bear market.

In a series of tweets on May 20, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that BTC/USD should dive to near $20,000 to conform to historical norms.

Death cross BTC price target now $22,700

Much debate has surrounded the so-called "death cross" constructions on the Bitcoin chart. These involve the declining 50-period moving average (50MA) crossing under the 200MA.

Often in the past, such an event has triggered considerable price downside, this then going on to mark what Rekt Capital calls "generational bottoms."

"More often than not, the depth of a $BTC correction pre-Death Cross is similar to retrace depth post-Death Cross," he summarized.

Both March 2020 and May 2021 broke the rules when it comes to post-death cross losses, however — in both instances, the death cross, itself, marked the bottom.

In January 2022, the historical trend seemed to return, as a death cross event came after BTC/USD had already declined 43% from its November 2021 all-time highs of $69,000.

Another 43% from there, however, puts the pair at $22,700.

20.

So since #BTC has crashed -43% since November '21 prior to the Death Cross...$BTC could retrace a bit more to reach an overall retracement of -43% post-Death Cross, should this historical tendency continue to repeat

This would result in a ~$22,700 $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/aH91tn2xmr
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 20, 2022

"What's interesting about the scenario of a -43% post-Death Cross crash however is that it would result in a $22000 BTC," the concluding tweet read, alongside a chart highlighting key return on investment (ROI) opportunities during generational bottoms.

"Which ties in with the 200-SMA (orange), which tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for $BTC investors (green circles highlight this)."

*BTC/USD annotated chart with 200-week MA. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter*

Facing up to the bear market

Elsewhere, fellow analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, said the time had come to admit that Bitcoin is in a bear market.

In his latest market update on May 20, Filbfilb flagged the one-year MA as the key level to regain to exit the quagmire which resulted after losing it as support in early April.

"Ultimately we continue to sit in a bear market. This has been the case since price retreated away from the 1yr moving average which we highlighted as a key risk [...] when price got rejected off that level," he wrote.

"Until we can reclaim that level we have to face the reality that we are in a bear market for $BTC."

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200-day MAs. Source: TradingView*

Research Firm Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $200K in Second Half of 2022, ETH to Reach $12K

February 8, 2022 Bitcoin.com

ETH to hit $20 trillion market cap by 2030: Ark Invest

January 27, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Ark Invest

ARK Invest’s new report predicts Ether’s market cap will reach $20 trillion and the Bitcoin price will exceed $1 million by 2030 based on BTC’s use cases and how ETH captures market share from TradFi.

A new report from Cathy Woods’ ARK Invest forecasts Ethereum (ETH) will meet or even exceed a $20 trillion market cap within the next 10 years, which would equate to a price around $170,000 to $180,000 per ETH.

The report also predicted big things for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it is “likely to scale as nation-states adopt (it) as legal tender… the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.”

ARK Invest is a tech focused American asset management firm based in the United States with $12.43 billion AUM.

#BigIdeas2022 Report is here!

To enlighten investors on the impact of breakthrough technologies we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight our most provocative research conclusions for the year. Download! https://t.co/QvUbuqVpIL
— ARK Invest (@ARKInvest) January 26, 2022

The prediction in ARK Invest’s report Big Ideas 2022 is predicated on how quickly the Ethereum network has grown in utility and efficiency. Much of the growth over the past two years has come from decentralized finance (DeFi). ARK described the appeal of DeFi, stating:

“Decentralized Finance promises more interoperability, transparency, and financial services while minimizing intermediary fees and counterparty risk.”

According to ARK, smart contracts and decentralized apps (DApps) on Ethereum is “usurping traditional financial functions at the margin.” The report highlighted that banking and lending, exchanges, brokerages, asset management, insurance, and derivatives can all be found on Ethereum-based smart contracts.

What’s more, DeFi is a lot more efficient too. ARK estimated that DeFi outperformed traditional finance over the last twelve months in terms of revenue per employee $88 million to $8 million.

In terms of Bitcoin, the report forecasts $1.36 million per BTC with a market cap of $28.5 trillion by 2030. ARK researchers assigned an estimated future value to eight of Bitcoin’s use cases, and used the sum of all of them to reach their conclusion about BTC price.

By 2030, the firm expects Bitcoin to account for 50% of global remittances at 1.5x velocity, 10% of emerging markets’ currency, 25% of US bank settlement volumes, 1% of nation-state treasuries worldwide, 5% of global high net worth individual (HNWI) wealth, 2.55% of institutional asset base, 5% of the cash from S&P 500 companies, and 50% of gold’s total market cap.

ARK also argued that Bitcoin mining “could revolutionize energy production.” While global concerns have been raised about the tremendous amount of energy that Bitcoin mining requires, the researchers believe that “Bitcoin mining will encourage and generate more electricity from renewable carbon-free sources.”

“The addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources.”

Both ETH and BTC have had a rough past seven days by falling 22.2% and 13% respectively according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin $100K possible by chipping away at gold’s market share: Goldman Sachs

January 5, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has a good chance to topple $100,000 by taking market share from gold as a store of value, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to close 2021 above the long-expected $100,000 level, but experts believe the psychological horizon is still achievable by taking gold's market share, albeit over a more extended period.

In a note released to investors on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs co-head of global FX and EM strategy Zach Pandl hypothesized that if the largest cryptocurrency could overtake 50% of the store of value market share over the next five years, BTC price would increase to just over $100,000, marking a compound annualized return of 18%.

While the current market cap of BTC is close to $884 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates the float-adjusted market cap of Bitcoin is under $700 billion, accounting for one-fifth of the “store of value” market. The said market is not crowded, though. The only other participant of Goldman’s store of value market is gold, with an available investment at $2.6 trillion.

Despite its ups and downs, Bitcoin still managed to top Goldman Sachs’ 2021 return scorecard with over 60% yearly returns. Gold is placed at the bottom in the same chart with a 4% yearly loss.

*Yearly returns scorecard. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research*

Goldman Sachs experts believe that the demand for BTC will not be harmed by the hot debate surrounding the Bitcoin network’s energy consumption. While a recent study claims the Bitcoin ecosystem consumes eight times the energy of Google and Facebook combined, New York Digital Investment Group estimates that Bitcoin mining will not represent more than 0.4% of global electricity consumption over the next decade.

As detailed in a Cointelegraph New Year Special, Bitcoin saw a bumpy ride over the last year. Many experts believed that $100,000 was an easy target for the flagship cryptocurrency for 2021. However, BTC closed the year around $47,000 after touching an all-time high around $69,000 in November, falling short of analysts’ ambitious target.

Bitcoin could ‘drive people nuts’ for months with $53K BTC price ceiling — analyst

December 6, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Investors, not short-term traders, will be the likely beneficiaries of upcoming BTC price moves, popular names agree.

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend "months" ranging between recent $42,000 lows and $53,000 and cause panic in the process, popular analysts warned on Dec. 6.

Discussing the BTC price outlook on Twitter, Scott Melker, known as the Wolf of All Streets, said that ranging behavior could last well into 2022.

Bitcoin price bottoms could sink still deeper

After failing to reclaim even $50,000 after last week's crash, BTC/USD is spawning bearish sentiment this week.

As sentiment sits deep within in the "extreme fear" zone, Melker joined those steering clear of the sky-high short-term price predictions that were previously ubiquitous.

"My general view. >53K again resumes the bullish case. <42K again puts 28K back in play," he summarized.

"Everything between the two numbers now is ranging chop that will drive traders into a panic. People will be extremely bullish at 53K and bearish at 42K if either is reached."

A further post put the timeframe for such price action to play out at "a few months."

"December has a high probability of range-bound chop, the ideal time to take some time off from the charts, make a few well-thought-through trades, and recharge for next year," filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, continued.

Their comments mimic those of fellow popular trader Pentoshi, who made waves on Dec. 6 while acknowledging that Bitcoin could still dip to $30,000.

Wouldn’t be surprised if this happens for $btc. It’s a real possibility. I would be prepared for it https://t.co/Qw4XggiDdV
— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021

That would place BTC/USD de facto back at its 2021 starting position and over 50% down against the year's all-time highs.

"Trading at a decent discount"

Dec. 6's Wall Street open, meanwhile, had barely any impact on Bitcoin, markets remaining comparatively steady as stocks saw a light move higher.

As critics took aim at Bitcoin's alleged lack of ability to act as a store of value, proponents looked for clues as to whether the market was fairly valued after the sell-off.

For analyst Willy Woo, the on-chain data said it all.

"We're currently trading at a decent discount," he revealed, highlighting the Bitcoin Supply Shock Valuation (SSV) metric.

SSV looks at the last time on-chain demand matched current levels, with the implication being that prices should be higher under current circumstances.

This model does a look back on previous times that #bitcoin had similar on-chain demand.

We're currently trading at a decent discount.

It's a model for investors, not traders who can easily be liquidated well before the model plays out. pic.twitter.com/w9byxBiX6M
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 6, 2021

Woo had previously noted that the most recent dip was accompanied by smallscale investors increasing their BTC exposure.

Key chart crossover eyed as end to bear market losses

Moving averages stack up as resistance

Wall Street provides short-term relief

Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs "fresh take"

Death cross BTC price target now $22,700

Facing up to the bear market

Bitcoin price bottoms could sink still deeper

"Trading at a decent discount"

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