Bitcoin stays out of fear for 11 straight days as price tips near 24K

January 30, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bull trap

Bitcoin's huge price surge in January has meant that 64% of Bitcoin investors are in profit, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

Bitcoin (BTC) has just clocked its 11th consecutive day outside the “Fear” zone in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, cementing its longest streak out of fear since last March.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 61 - Greed
Current price: $23,780 pic.twitter.com/U5gxN3AwnT
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) January 30, 2023

This comes as Bitcoin hit $23,955 at 8:10 pm UTC time on Jan. 29, its highest level of the year. It has since come back down slightly, to $23,687 at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin sentiment is currently sitting firmly in the “Greed” zone with a score of 61, its highest level since the height of the bull run around Nov. 16, 2021, when its price was about $65,000.

*Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index over the last 12 months. Source:* *Crypto Fear and Greed Index.*

However, despite Bitcoin’s strong resurgence in recent weeks, market participants continue to debate whether the recent price surge is part of a bull trap or whether there is a real chance for a bull run.

Regardless, the current rally has pushed a lot more BTC holders back into the green.

According to data from blockchain intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, 64% of Bitcoin investors are now in profit.

Those who first bought BTC back in 2019 are now — on average — back in profit too, according to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode.

We can calculate the average acquisition price for #Bitcoin by tracking exchange withdrawals.

The chart below shows the average withdrawal price for investors for each year.

The average class of 2019+ $BTC is now back in profit (at $21.8k)

Live Chart: https://t.co/yuhvydV70c pic.twitter.com/skjrM6w5lH
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 29, 2023

The average first-time buy price for BTC investors in 2019 was $21,800, which means those investors are on average up about 9% at the Jan. 29 price of $23,687.

Meanwhile, a Jan. 29 poll from crypto market platform CoinGecko has revealed that 57.7% of 3,725 voters believe BTC will exceed $25,000 this week, while only 21.2% of voters believe BTC is primed for a pullback below $22,000.

*A CoinGecko poll on BTC price prediction for the upcoming week. Source:* *CoinGecko*

The founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital, Dr. Jeff Ross, also provided a technical analysis of his own on Jan. 29, suggesting that a price surge toward $25,000 in the short term may be on the cards:

The strength of #bitcoin on the 4-hour charts continues to be impressive.

While price action has trended sideways for over a week, short term indicators (MACD, RSI) have once again reset... and are now ramping higher.

A price surge to ~$25k is probable.

(Not investment advice) pic.twitter.com/QaPbNrxtxZ
— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) January 29, 2023

Other analysts have called for excited investors to taper some of their expectations, however.

Head analyst Joe Burnett of Bitcoin mining company Blockware told his 43,900 Twitter followers on Jan. 29 that BTC won’t reach and surpass its all-time high of $69,000 until after the next Bitcoin halving event, which is expected to take place in March 2024:

I do not think Bitcoin will make a new all time high until after the 2024 halving.

Dovish macro conditions and decreased miner sell pressure will lead to the next parabolic bull run.

Using Energy Gravity as a potential top indicator, I expect the next peak to be $150k - $350k. pic.twitter.com/OfCER7s8Zq
— Joe Burnett ()³ (@IIICapital) January 29, 2023

Macroeconomist and investment adviser Lyn Alden also recently told Cointelegraph that there may be “considerable danger ahead” with potentially risky liquidity conditions expected to shake the market in the second half of 2023.

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Bitcoin sees record Stock-to-Flow miss — BTC price model creator brushes off FTX ‘blip’

November 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price action since FTX "feels like the world has ended," says Stock-to-Flow creator PlanB.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.

The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to an extent never seen before.

Stock-to-Flow sets grim new record

With BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.

This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.

Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing strain — and criticism.

Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth through the years.

S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “up only” — but even accounting for these, current targets are far higher than spot price.

According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on Nov. 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.

On Nov. 10, the multiple reached -1.5 — a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime — as the FTX impact hit the market.

*Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Multiple chart. Source: S2F Multiple/ Twitter*

PlanB: "Feels like the world has ended"

An alternative iteration of S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.

“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” its creator, Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post.

“Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”

*Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter*

Nonetheless, PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation — and now, defense — of S2F, remains cool on its utility.

“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.

PlanB has fielded increasingly strong accusations over the model in 2022, these including claims that its basis is fraudulent.

In response to the increasing deviation between target and spot price, he maintained that even a comparatively wide range for price to act within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin trader eyes K dip as Cathie Wood confirms M BTC price target by 2030

ARK

Short-term Bitcoin price action once again feels like a different animal to bulls' high-timeframe conviction.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a new threat of a dip below $40,000 on April 8 as short timeframes failed to rescue bulls.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin risks return to $38,000 support

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating in a range bounded by $44,000 prior to Friday’s Wall Street open.

The pair had reduced volatility after a comedown from 2022 highs during the week, but analysts warned that a return to the year’s established trading range was a clear next step.

“BTC is in the process of trying to turn the ~$43,100 area into support. If it fails to do that & ~$43K turns into resistance… BTC will confirm a return to the $38K-$43K range which was home to consolidation earlier this year,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized in his latest Twitter update.

“Until then - retest in progress.”

Also eyeing a fresh leg down was Crypto Ed, who flagged a failed breakout attempt at $44,000 as a signal for potential bearish continuation.

#BTC
You were warned pic.twitter.com/1BPi8yBRY6
— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) April 8, 2022

In a YouTube update on the day, he additionally highlighted $40,000 as the next logical bearish target.

Rekt Capital dealt a potential silver lining in the form of BTC/USD preserving its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) after an earlier breakout — something which in times past had “preceded immense upside,” he noted.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50-week EMA. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin 2022 passes markets by

The lackluster price performance accompanied the ongoing Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami, which despite various attention-grabbing speeches and announcements from big industry names failed to lift market sentiment.

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel caught the limelight with a keynote speech in which he named Warren Buffett, the ESG movement and others in a list of Bitcoin’s U.S. “enemies.”

“If we had to summarize this in one frame, it is the finance gerontocracy that runs the country through whatever silly virtue-signalling/ hate factory term like ESG that they have versus what we have to think of as a revolutionary youth movement,” he told the audience.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood meanwhile doubled down on a prediction that Bitcoin would cost $1 million by 2030.

The Wood-managed ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) traded down over 34% year-to-date Friday, heavily underperforming Bitcoin itself.

*ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView*

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‘Powder keg’: FSInsight report says a single spark could see BTC 5X

February 9, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

The outlook report forecasts lofty price predictions for the two largest coins by market cap by the end of 2022 based on a series of key metrics.

Financial research firm FSInsight predicts in a new report that Bitcoin could reach $222,000, and Ether could reach $12,000, by the end of 2022.

At current prices of BTC ($43,350) and ETH ($3,080), that would mean a nearly five-time and four-time increase in price for each coin respectively.

The Digital Assets In A Post-Cycle World report explained several factors that are likely to combine to drive prices to those heights by the end of the year. Compared to other cycles, it would appear that BTC has not achieved what the report calls “overly frothy valuations.” This could be attributed to better efficiency in the market, or a transition from a payment solution to a store-of-value.

The lack of bubble-like prices is shown by the fact that since the May 2020 Bitcoin halving, BTC market cap peaked at an increase of just 3.7x. This is the lowest increase since the 2016 halving, when the market cap peaked at an increase of 4.2x.

The halving is when the mining reward issued per block is reduced by half, reducing the new supply coming onto the market. The 2020 halving saw block rewards go down to 6.25 BTC per block.

Supply-side dynamics are also seen as a bullish signal by FSInsight. Illiquid supply of BTC — Bitcoin which has found a long term home in storage — comprises about 75% of the circulating supply. The report states:

“The current supply dynamics can best be described as a powder keg. The question remains who lights the match.”

This observation tallies neatly with the Feb 7 video from the InvestAnswers Youtube channel. Host James Mullarney said that due to the current lack of sellers, a “buy between 100,000 and 200,000 Bitcoin within the space of one or two weeks” could send the price up 3X.

The FSInsight report also noted that market value to realized value (MVRV) of BTC is at the lowest level since April 2020, when price was still below $10,000. From that point, BTC price climbed steadily up over the next year to a high of about $57,000 in May 2021.

Ultimately, the report forecasts BTC price to reach a range of $138,000 to $222,000 by the end of 2022.

The case for ETH

The bullish forecast for ETH began by showing how Ethereum generated nearly $10 billion in fees in 2021. According to the report, that is a 1,564% annual growth rate from 2020.

ETH saw a 1,564% annual growth rate in 2021 from 2020, according to FSInsight.

The ETH supply-side dynamics also spell bullish signals for the analysts, which noted that the burn mechanism from th implementation of EIP 1559 creates “disinflationary pressure,” but added:

“While we do not necessarily believe this to make ETH 'sound' money, it is certainly beneficial for price.”

FSInsight analysts conclude that ETH is “remarkably undervalued.” Analysts factored in The Merge, when Ethereum is scheduled to transition to Proof-of-Stake consensus, Layer 2 platform development, and the potential launch of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), to forecast a price of $12,000 by the end of 2022.

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Price prediction