Bitcoin return to $73K could be a start to ‘escape velocity’ phase

May 23, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price chases after $35K as BTC derivatives data signals fresh inflow

October 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price chases after K as BTC derivatives data signals fresh inflow

bnb

Bitcoin options and futures data suggests the current BTC price movement could have longevity.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action is the talk of the town this week and based on the current sentiment expressed by market participants on social media, one could almost assume that the long-awaited bull market has started.

As Bitcoin's price rallied by 16.1% between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24, bearish traders using futures contracts found themselves liquidated to the tune of $230 million. One data point that stands out is the change in Bitcoin's open interest, a metric reflecting the total number of futures contracts in play.

The evidence suggests that Bitcoin shorts were taken by surprise on Oct. 22 but they were not employing excessive leverage.

*Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass*

During the rally, BTC futures open interest increased from $13.1 billion to $14 billion. This differs from August 17, when Bitcoin's price dropped by 9.2% in just 36 hours. That sudden movement caused $416 million in long liquidations, despite the lower percentage-size price move. At the time, Bitcoin's futures open interest decreased from $12 billion to $11.3 billion.

Data seems to corroborate the gamma squeeze theory that is circulating, which implies that market makers had their stop losses "chased."

The $BTC "god candle" lines up with where dealers got blown out of short positioning ($32k-$33k).

This was a gamma squeeze, not organic. pic.twitter.com/NXM8z8mNDa
— Not Tiger Global (@NotChaseColeman) October 24, 2023

Bitcoin personality NotChaseColeman explained on X social network (formerly Twitter), that arbitrage desks were likely forced to hedge short positions after Bitcoin broke above $32,000, triggering the rally to $35,195.

The most significant issue with the short squeeze theory is the increase in BTC futures open interest. This indicates that even if there were relevant liquidations, the demand for new leveraged positions outpaced the forced closures.

Did Changpeng Zhao and BNB play a role in Bitcoin's price action?

Another interesting theory from user M4573RCH on X social network claims that Changpeng "CZ" Zhao used BNB as collateral for margin on Venus Protocol, a decentralized finance (DeFi) application after being forced to sell Bitcoin to "shore up" the price of BNB token.

maybe im nuts but what we just saw is

cz has BNB collateral on Venus

bnb dumping

cz sells btc to shore up bnb

cz unwinds loans and pays back debt on Venus

bnb on venus no longet vulnerable to liquidation

cz buys back btc with bnb to rebalance his btc position@cz_binance… pic.twitter.com/NHulDnacB3
— ⚡️ (@M4573RCH) October 25, 2023

According to M4573RCH's theory, after a successful intervention, CZ would have paid back the interest on Venus Protocol and bought back Bitcoin using BNB to "rebalance" the position.

Notably, the BNB supply on the platform exceeds 1.2 million tokens, worth $278 million. Thus, assuming that 50% of the position is controlled by a single entity, that's enough to create a $695 million long position using 5x leverage on Bitcoin futures.

Of course, one will never be able to confirm or dismiss speculations such as the Venus-BNB manipulation or the "gamma squeeze" in Bitcoin derivatives. Both theories make sense, but it is impossible to assert the entities involved or the rationale behind the timing.

The increase in BTC futures open interest indicates that new leveraged positions have entered the space. The movement could have been driven by news that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF request was listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), even though this event does not increase the odds of approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bitcoin derivatives point to a healthy bull run and room for further gains

To understand how professional traders are positioned after the surprise rally, one should analyze the BTC derivatives metrics. Normally, Bitcoin monthly futures trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium compared to spot markets, indicating that sellers demand additional money to postpone settlement.

*Bitcoin 1-month futures premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The Bitcoin futures premium reached 9.5% on Oct. 24, marking the highest level in over a year. More notably, it broke above the 5% neutral threshold on Oct. 23, putting an end to a 9-week period dominated by bearish sentiment and low demand for leveraged long positions.

To assess whether the break above $34,000 has led to excessive optimism, traders should examine the Bitcoin options markets. When traders anticipate a drop in Bitcoin's price, the delta 25% skew tends to rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically see it dip below negative 7%.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The Bitcoin options' 25% delta skew shifted from neutral to bullish on Oct. 19 and continued in this direction until it reached -18% on Oct. 22. This signaled extreme optimism, with put (sell) options trading at a discount. The current -7% level suggests a somewhat balanced demand between call (buy) and put options.

Whatever triggered the surprise price rally prompted professional traders to move away from a period characterized by pessimism. However, it wasn't enough to justify excessive pricing for call options, which is a positive sign. Furthermore, there is no indication of excessive leverage from buyers, as the futures premium remains at a modest 8%.

Despite the ongoing speculation regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, there is enough evidence to support a healthy influx of funds, justifying a rally beyond the $35,000 mark.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Californian lawmaker proposes legislation to protect actors from AI clones

September 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Acting

Californian Assembly Member Ash Kalra labeled the bill as a “common sense requirement” to help protect the work of actors, artists and entertainers.

A Californian lawmaker has introduced a bill to protect actors, artists, and entertainers from artificial intelligence, by mandating employment contracts to include informed consent when it comes to digital replicates.

Ash Kalra, an Assembly Member of the State of California — the lawmaker behind the bill — argued that generative AI presents a “real threat” to workers in the entertainment industry and its use should be banned unless a bargaining agreement between the parties is made.

The legislation, Assembly Bill 459, will eventually be assigned to a committee whose members will research, discuss, and make changes to the bill proposed by Kalra, which will then be put before the chamber for a vote.

Kalra explained in a Sept. 13 statement that “common sense requirements” like those in bill AB 459 need to be implemented to protect these workers:

“Mandating informed consent and representation will help ensure workers are not unknowingly at risk of losing the right to their digital self, and with it, their careers and livelihoods.”

The bill was also supported by Screen Actors Guild and American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) — a United States-based labor union representing over 100,000 media professionals around the world.

Kalra's office said AB 459 will be in print later today. Here's the draft language of the legislation. pic.twitter.com/J2rIEUBvuh
— Queenie Wong (@QWongSJ) September 13, 2023

Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, the guild’s national executive director and chief negotiator stressed that protecting an actor’s digital image through consent-based laws is now a necessity.

“We believe that our members must maintain full control over the use of their digital selves through informed consent, and this is key if they are to be able to build and sustain a career,” he explained.

Crabtree-Ireland said AI copycats can lead to “abusive” and “exploitative” practices and that legislation will play a key role in curtailing such conduct:

"We see protection against the unjust transfers of these rights to be an imperative against potential abusive or exploitative practices. We are deeply concerned by the proliferation of AI-created audio and video content without full consent, and this legislation is an important step to ending these dangerous practices.”

The Screen Actors Guild has been behind a nearly four-month-long ongoing strike action in Hollywood over base compensation, better working conditions and other contentious issues.

One of the issues raised revolves around AI and its use, with the workers demanding stricter protections against artificial intelligence and larger royalties for their work, known in the industry as residuals.

In a recent interview with Variety, U.S. actor Sean Penn took a shot at many studios' desire to utilize actors' likenesses and voices for future AI use.

“So you want my scans and voice data and all that. OK, here’s what I think is fair: I want your daughter’s, because I want to create a virtual replica of her and invite my friends over to do whatever we want in a virtual party right now.

"Would you please look at the camera and tell me you think that’s cool?” he asked.

Magazine: AI Eye: AI’s trained on AI content go MAD, is Threads a loss leader for AI data?

Honk if you love Bitcoin! Lightning takes the wheel of a European rally car adventure

June 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Community

With a comically loud horn, a candy machine and a jukebox filled with Mozart, metal and more, it's the "Bitcoin Ambassadors" rally car adventure.

A Bitcoin-mobile (BTC) piloted by the “Bitcoin Ambassadors” team is competing in the 8,000-kilometer Baltic Sea Circle Rally race, orange-pilling competitors and campsites along the way.

*The car is adorned and sponsored by Bitcoin companies. Source: Cercatrova*

Two Bitcoin advocates, Cercatrova, the democratically elected president of German-speaking Bitcoin community Einundzwanzig, and his copilot Daktari, set off on the orange-pilling adventure this week, attempting to pass through 9 Northern European countries in their Bitcoin-branded car.

Speaking to Cointelegraph from somewhere above the Arctic Circle, Cercatrova explained:

“The whole rally is a charity rally; there are 150 teams or cars. It starts in Hamburg and goes up to Denmark, Sweden, Norway and around the Baltic Sea – it’s around 8,000 kilometres, 16 days and we’re the only Bitcoin team here–none of the other teams are cryptocurrency teams.”

The goal is to “Bring Bitcoin to the people,” while also raise money for two sources, a Panamanian coffee farmer and an El Salvadoran peer2peer ride-sharing app developed on Lightning. Naturally, they’ve been “orange pilling” or introducing people to Bitcoin along the journey.

Christian, founder of Seedor, a metal Bitcoin backup based in Germany who’s avidly following their journey told Cointelegraph that while in Norway “They orange pilled the campground." The duo showed the campground owner how to pay in Bitcoin:

Orange pilling the campground owner in Norway

If you take your time, listen and explain to people, they will understand we could pay our place here in #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/OReIxQKHuA
— cercatrova⚡️ (@cercatrova_21) June 21, 2023

Cercatrova told Cointelegraph that so far they have discussed Bitcoin with at least 30 people as part of the rally in amongst chance conversations with interested observers. Plus, passersby and overtakers can scan the QR code on the side of the car to receive free Satoshis, or small amounts of Bitcoin, to get started on their Bitcoin journey.

“So when somebody sees us and asks about Bitcoin, “how does it work?” We can actually take the people to our car and say, okay, just install a wallet and it's done in about 30 seconds. And they’re amazed: ‘I didn't have to fill out anything, didn't have to take a passport or whatever.' It just works,"

The car is also equipped with a candy machine that accepts Bitcoin, so noobies can spend their brand new Sats on candy, “just to see how it works,” Cercatrova explained.

*The team's location, northern Norway. Source: superlative-adventure.com*

For the Bitcoin enthusiasts following at home, the car is Lightning-ready. A remote-play jukebox and a Lightning-switch horn can be operated from all around the world. Fans and supporters worldwide are sending their song requests to the car’s Lightning-ready Telegram group, paying less than a dollar for the courtesy.

Choose which song we will listen at the #BalticSeaCircle Rally and honk our horn over Lightning All sats will go to the https://t.co/vB9oXhpbrh project (from @FPupusas), 2 indios in panama, who make coffee for sats and to the creater of the jukebox ☕️ pic.twitter.com/x6IsuhPZZA
— cercatrova⚡️ (@cercatrova_21) June 20, 2023

Lightning enthusiasts can also set off the car’s horn from thousands of miles away. The process uses a Lightning switch which turns on when it has received enough sats. Cercatrova explains:

“So on my Twitter feed is also the QR code, where you can scan the lightning invoice. And when you pay that, it's about 3000 Sats to honk it once. And then our car honks!”

The honk is comically loud and playful, while the lightning jukebox playlist has featured metal to Mozart and German folk tunes to crypto classics such as Pump it Up. Cercatrova explained that the musical variation is a great source of fun and motivation:

“One time there is death metal and the other side it's Beethoven's Fifth Symphony and it's really crazy.”

To date, the Bitcoin Ambassadors rally team has raised approximately 4 million Satoshis or $1,200 for charity, although Cercatrova added "the next days and the willingness to send more Sats," could drive the number higher. The drivers are about halfway through the journey, expecting to finish by the end of June.

As vital research for this article, Reporter Joe Hall not only set off the horn during the phone interview but he also queued up a famous song by Rick Astley.

Magazine: Peter McCormack’s Real Bedford Football Club puts Bitcoin on the map

Bitcoin’s next rally may be imminent, on-chain analyst says

May 30, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

On-chain data shows that an imminent Bitcoin rally could drive its price up to $32,000, says Glassnode lead analyst James Check.

After a long period of unusually low volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) next major price move is likely imminent and could drive BTC to $32,000, according to James Check, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode. That price level is where Bitcoin’s “true cost basis is sitting,” Check explained in an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph.

To calculate Bitcoin’s average cost basis — the average price at which BTC was bought — Check and his team removed coins that are lost forever from the calculation and focused on active Bitcoin investors.

“It’s where the mean reversion level would be, so a rally to that level, to be honest, wouldn’t surprise me,” he said.

Despite this bullish scenario, Check also pointed out that a large number of investors are likely tired of the bear market and waiting for Bitcoin to reach that level before selling, thus putting pressure on the price.

“That's an area where you start getting more resistance,” he stated.

To find out more about the chances of an upcoming Bitcoin rally, check the full interview on our YouTube channel — and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin advocates rally at Texas State Capitol to oppose bill cutting mining incentives

April 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin mining

“When you target one industry the way they are with this bill, that’s bad policy no matter what the industry you’re targeting,” said Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter.

Roughly 100 people answered the call from the crypto advocacy groups Chamber of Digital Commerce, Satoshi Action Fund, and Texas Blockchain Council to show Texas lawmakers they were against legislation targeting crypto mining firms.

Gathering at the Texas Capitol in Austin on April 25, crypto enthusiasts, state lawmakers, industry leaders, and even a few members of the Capitol Police met to discuss the possible future of Bitcoin (BTC) mining in the Lone Star State should Senate Bill 1751 move through the legislature. The proposed legislation would amend sections of Texas’ utilities and tax code to add restrictions for crypto mining companies.

The bill passed the Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce as well as through a vote on the Senate floor. As of April 24, the state’s House of Representatives had conducted a first reading of the legislation, whereupon it moved to the Committee on State Affairs.

Under the current version of SB 1751, crypto mining firms participating in a program intended to compensate them for load reductions on the state’s power grid through the Electric Reliability Council of Texas would have their incentives capped at 10%. In addition, certain companies operating data centers would also not receive an abatement on state taxes starting in September 2023.

“The fights about mining aren’t really about mining,” Perianne Boring, CEO of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, said to Cointelegraph at the event. “It’s not really about environmental concerns. What it’s really about is controlling energy use.” She clarified:

“Bitcoin mining is a way for regulators to set a new precedent to say who is allowed to purchase energy, who is allowed to purchase power and how you are allowed to use it in a free society.”

‘Digital Freedom rally’ to oppose Senate Bill 1751 in Texas State Capitol #Bitcoin $BTC pic.twitter.com/lwAzAbSnY0
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 25, 2023

If passed, the bill could potentially threaten mining operations for many firms in Texas, a major player in the BTC hash rate following China’s crackdown. Riot Platforms and White Rock Management run mining rigs in Texas. However, Argo Blockchain and Mawson Infrastructure Group have announced plans to sell their Texas facilities to Galaxy Digital and a Singapore-based fund manager, respectively.

Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter said he had been monitoring the movement of the Texas bill, discussing its potential impact with local lawmakers. According to Porter, who advocates for pro-crypto legislation with policymakers across the United States, much of the pushback on mining is usually at the county level rather than state — one exception being New York’s Proof-of-Work mining moratorium passed in 2022.

“When you target one industry the way they are with this bill, that’s bad policy no matter what the industry you’re targeting,” Porter said to Cointelegraph. “It’s not a ban [like New York’s] but it is very much limiting the space and will hurt the growth of Bitcoin mining.”

Porter added that even though SB 1751 hadn’t been signed into law, it could potentially discourage investors from coming into the state. He said he had seen many policymakers respond to crypto and blockchain based on complaints rather than the innovative aspects of the technology.

“You shouldn’t punish the whole industry because one bad actor comes in [...] What we want to see is policy and regulations that acknowledge these bad actors and try to limit their ability to come into the space but doesn’t just kill the whole industry overnight.”

The Consensus 2023 conference will be taking place in Austin from April 26-28 featuring speakers from across the crypto and blockchain space. Cointelegraph staff will be in attendance.

Magazine: Crypto City: Guide to Austin

Solana Faces Renewed Criticism After 10th Downtime and Bumpy Restart, but Developers Remain Optimistic

February 28, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Social token platform Rally announces shutdown of sidechain

January 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Business

Rally cited a "challenging year" for the crypto industry in its decision to “begin to sunset” the platform's sidechain after Jan. 31.

Rally, a social token platform, has announced nonfungible tokens (NFTs) on its sidechain will no longer be accessible.

Users reported across social media platforms that Rally said the platform’s sidechain will “begin to sunset” after Jan. 31, leaving users unable to access NFTs once the site fully shuts down. The site’s developers did not say that they would be offering another path forward in the future, but hinted at building “leaner web3 experiences and/or products on mainnet.”

“2022 was a challenging year not only for the platform, but also for the entire crypto industry,” said Rally. “The team has worked relentlessly to try to find a path forward, however the challenges and macro headwinds are too overwhelming to overcome in the current environment.”

Rally facilitated creators and artists launching their own social token projects and establishing independent communities directly on the platform. The “creator coins” allowed users to essentially monetize themselves, providing additional revenue.