Relative Strength Index

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Can XRP price reach $1 after 25% gains in one week? Watch this key support level

February 13, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Can XRP price reach after 25% gains in one week? Watch this key support level

Buy Ripple

A fractal from 2018-2019 repeating could spell trouble for XRP's long-term upside outlook, however.

XRP price has continued to bounce back after falling by more than 70% in a correction between April 2021 and January 2022.

Why the XRP/USD 50-week EMA is key

On Feb. 13, XRP/USD reached as high as $0.916, above its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) around $0.833. The upside move, albeit not decisive, opened possibilities for further bullish momentum, mainly owing to a historical buying sentiment around the said wave.

*XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring 50-week EMA. Source: TradingView*

For instance, traders had successfully reclaimed the 50-week EMA as support in the week ending July 27, 2020, more than a year after flipping the wave as resistance. Later, XRP's price rallied by more than 820% to $1.98 in April 2021, its best level in more than three years.

Conversely, during the bearish cycles between 2018 and 2020, XRP's 50-week EMA acted as a strong resistance level on multiple occasions. That showed the wave's ability to withstand bullish recovery sentiments, such as the one witnessed during the current price rebound.

Can XRP retake $1?

XRP now needs to hold decisively above its 50-week EMA, which could have it reclaim $1 in the sessions ahead.

The level, which sits around 25% above the current price levels, coincides with XRP's two key resistance targets. The first is the multi-month downward sloping trendline that has been capping the token's upside bias since April 2021

*XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring upside target. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, the second target is the 0.382 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement level drawn between $2.70-swing high and $0.10-swing low, also having a history of limiting XRP's strong trends by acting as both support and resistance.

Still a lower high, the $1-level does not promise to take XRP out of its correction bias. Instead, it may bring opportunities for traders to secure their interim profits, thus exposing XRP to a pullback toward an imminent support target near $0.71, as per the Fibonacci retracement graph.

The bears' case

Conversely, failure to obtain a decisive close above the 50-week EMA resistance could have XRP eye a pullback toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $0.54.

This move risks trapping the price inside a range defined by 50-week EMA as resistance and 200-week EMA as support, which may result in a further breakout to the downside. The bearish outlook appears out of a fractal from June 2018-June 2019 session, as shown in the chart below.

*XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Notably, XRP's run-up to its record high of $3.55 in January 2018 coincided with its weekly relative strength index (RSI), forming a lower high, thus confirming a bearish divergence.

Later, the price declined below its 50-week EMA but picked support from its 200-week EMA. The RSI's fall also exhausted near 37, just above its oversold reading of 30.

XRP trended sideways inside the said moving average range, while the RSI maintained a reading above 37. Nonetheless, in June 2019, the price broke below the 200-day EMA support, extending its decline to as low as $0.10 as of March 2020.

If the fractal plays out as it did in 2018-2019, XRP would risk breaking below its 200-week EMA support near $0.54 in the coming sessions. Such a move may shift XRP's interim downside target to the 0.786 Fib line near $0.43, according to the Fibonacci retracement graph painted from $0.14-swing low to $1.52-swing high.

*XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring downside targets. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, a further break below $0.43 would put the next downside target at $0.22, a level with a history of high-volume trading activity.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

This key trading pattern hints at the continuation of Fantom’s (FTM) 125% rebound

January 4, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

A bullish inverse head and shoulders chart pattern suggests that FTM price could see extended upside.

Fantom (FTM) looks poised to hit a new record high in the coming sessions after its 125% price rebound from $1.23 on Dec. 14, 2021, to $2.84 on Jan. 3, 2022 triggered a classic bullish reversal setup.

Dubbed inverse head and shoulders (IH&S), the setup appears when an asset forms three troughs below a so-called neckline resistance, with the middle trough (the head) deeper than the left and right shoulder.

The price of FTM has recently undergone a similar price trajectory, as shown in the chart below. As a result, FTM has a common resistance in the range defined by $2.55 to $2.74, which encompasses the length of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

*FTM/USD daily price chart featuring inverse head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingView*

Could Fantom rally by another 50%?

In a perfect world, an IH&S pattern would normally result in a bullish breakout once the price closes decisively above the neckline level. Ideally, the upside target be equal to the maximum distance between the head and the neckline, when measured from the breakout point.

On Monday, FTM almost completed its IH&S formation by reaching its neckline. As a result, the Fantom token's next move could be a bullish breakout above the $2.55 to $2.74 resistance range. In doing so, it would pursue a run-up toward $4.33, based on the setup presented in the chart below.

*FTM/USD daily price chart featuring the IH&S's breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

A sharp price pullback from the neckline range, accompanied by a spike in volume, would risk invalidating the IH&S setup. In that case, the next ideal support line may come near $2.08. This would be based on FTM's volume profile visible range (VPVR), a metric that displays trading activity over a specified period at specified price levels.

*FTM/USD daily price chart featuring volume profile target. Source: TradingView*

Are there risks of overvaluation?

Downside risks in the Fantom market also appeared in the form of its relative strength index (RSI), a metric that measures the magnitude of the asset's recent price changes to evaluate its overbought or oversold conditions.

*Relative Strength Index in a nutshell. Source: Investopedia*

In detail, FTM's daily RSI entered an overbought territory on Jan. 3 as its reading marginally jumped above 70. The technical indicator suggests FTM is overbought and that it should undergo a certain degree of correction to neutralize its market sentiment.

In layman's terms, an RSI reading above 70 is usually seen as a signal to sell. However, the sell-offs typically do not necessarily come right after RSI jumps into the overbought zone.

Based on multiple RSI corrections spotted between August and September 2021, the FTM price appears to extend its upside momentum even after the indicator crosses above 70. At its best, the daily RSI had reached almost 89 on Sep. 9, coinciding with the FTM price hitting the then-record high of $1.99.

*FTM/USD daily price chart featuring RSI-led corrections. Source: TradingView*

That somewhat leaves FTM with the possibility of pursuing its IH&S profit target of $4.33 despite its overvaluation risks. What could follow is a correction towards its 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave in the chart above) around $2.09.

This would bring the price near to the VPVR support at $2.08, as discussed above.

Bitcoin ‘death cross’ that pushed BTC price to $28.8K reappears

December 18, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The bearish crossover between Bitcoin's 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages hints at a drop toward the $40,000-$42,000 area.

A technical sell signal is about to appear on the Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart.

On Dec. 18, the BTC price will experience a death cross, a market indicator that occurs when a short-term moving average slips below a long-term moving average. In this case, Bitcoin's 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA) will close below its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA).

The indicator may end up alerting traders and investors about a potential selloff in the coming sessions, given its history of predicting bear trends in advance. For instance, the 20-200 bearish crossover that appeared on May 30, 2021, was instrumental in crashing the BTC price from $36,500 to $28,800 in the next 24 days.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring May 2021 death cross. Source: TradingView*

A similar death across also surfaced during March 2020's pandemic-led market crash, exactly a day before the Bitcoin price dropped from nearly $8,000 to below $4,000.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring March 2020 death cross. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin risks correction to $40K-42K range

Bitcoin has been correcting consecutively across the last four weeks and looks poised to close the ongoing weekly session in losses, as well, primarily with the Federal Reserve taking more aggressive action on inflation.

In the last 30 days, the BTC price has fallen by nearly 17.50%, including a correction from its record high of $69,000 on Nov. 10. In doing so, the cryptocurrency briefly fell to $42,333, only to rebound sharply later, paring some losses, as shown in the chart below.

*BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Nonetheless, the rebound did not turn into a bullish reversal — the Bitcoin price has been trending lower after finding an interim resistance near $50,000, a psychological level.

Bitcoin's efforts to retest $50,000 for a bullish breakout face opposition from its descending channel's resistance trendline, combined with additional downside pressure from its 20-day EMA and 200-day EMA waves, which are also sitting near $50,000.

As a result, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin appears to the downside. And with the death cross looming, the cryptocurrency would likely continue trending inside the descending channel to test levels around $42,000 for a strong pullback move.

If the decline accelerates, the price may eye $40,000 next as its downside target.

The RSI factor

Another leg lower would also push Bitcoin's daily relative strength index (RSI) into its oversold territory below 30, a buying signal. For now, the momentum indicator has been attempting to break above its downward sloping trendline, a move that has earlier predicted Bitcoin's local price bottoms.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring RSI breakouts. Source: TradingView*

On a shorter timeframe chart, the RSI has been consolidating sideways, anticipating that it would break out of the rectangle range to the upside. At the core of this optimistic outlook is a fractal from September 2021, shared by Mozzi, an independent crypto-market analyst.

*BTC/USD four-hour chart comparing RSI trends from Sep. 2021 and Dec. 2021. Source: TradingView*

"Bitcoin is following a similar structure from the end of September," the analyst noted on Saturday.

"Notice the RSI consolidation. Waiting on a clear break of the upper trendline as confirmation."

Shiba Inu risks drop with SHIB’s 574% October’s price rally near exhaustion

October 26, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

Shiba Inu's massive gains all across October may pare on potential bearish divergence signals and an overvalued relative strength index.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) may see a pullback by almost 25%-35% on fears that the cryptocurrency's excessive price rally in October has left it overvalued, a key indicator shows.

Dubbed Relative Strength Index (RSI), the indicator measures the magnitude of an instrument's recent price changes to evaluate its oversold and overbought conditions. The result can be anywhere between the number 0 and 100, with a reading below 30 showing the instrument's oversold and above 70 showing its overbought status.

SHIB crossed above 70 on Oct. 3 and peaked around 94 three days later. Ideally, its overbought reading could have resulted in price correction. But SHIB continued its rally as the monthly session progressed, eventually rising over 574% to its five-month high at $0.00004860 on Tuesday.

Bearish divergence

On the other hand, Shiba Inu's RSI slipped lower, thus creating a broad divergence between SHIB's price and momentum. That reflected an underlying weakness in the cryptocurrency's ongoing uptrend, raising possibilities of a pullback in the coming days.

*SHIB/USDT daily price chart featuring divergence between the rising price and falling RSI. Source: TradingView*

Additionally, the last three price candles on the Shiba Inu daily chart formed a sequence of higher highs at their close. But that coincided with declining trading volumes three days in a row, thus further validating the SHIB uptrend's underlying weakness.

That does not mean an immediate price correction. According to the breakout that followed the formation of a Bull Pennant indicator, SHIB bulls appeared to have been eyeing $0.00005222 as their next upside target.

25%-35% SHIB price pullback?

A Fibonacci Retracement graph between the Shiba Inu's swing high of $0.00003466 and the swing low of $0.00000621 presented a string of levels that earlier served as support and resistance.

For instance, the 1.618 Fib line of the graph coincided almost with the Shiba Inu's Bull Pennant target, just a two-notch upward at $0.00005224.

Thus, the resistance confluence of the 1.618 Fib line and Bull Pennant target raised SHIB's potential to test the $0.00005222-$0.00005224 price range before undergoing a strong price correction.

*SHIB/USDT daily price chart featuring Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView*

In doing so, the cryptocurrency's next downside target is near the 1.0 Fib line of $0.00003466, almost 25%-35% below the current price and $0.00005224.

On the other hand, a break above the 1.0 Fib line risked invalidating the entire bearish setup temporarily. That said, a bullish move may still make SHIB excessively overvalued based on its RSI readings, raising the potential of a correction in future sessions.

Ethereum fractal from 2017 that resulted in 7,000% gains for ETH appears again in 2021

October 3, 2021 Coin Telegraph

$Ethereum fractal from 2017 that resulted in 7,000% gains for ETH appears again in 2021$

Bullish Hammer

The eerie deja vu scenario can see Ethereum hit $13,000 within six months if history repeats.

Bids for Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) could rise to $13,000 in the next two months if history repeats.

So shows a fractal indicator from 2017, consisting of at least four technical patterns that were instrumental in pushing the ETH price up by over 7,000%. The same set of bullish indicators have flashed once again in 2021 as Ether trades above $3,350 after rallying over 360% year-to-date.

The 2017 Ethereum fractal, explained

In detail, the four technical indicators are Stochastic RSI, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bullish Hammer, and a Fibonacci retracement level. It started with the Bullish Hammer's occurrence on Ether's monthly chart in December 2017, followed by a 7,000% price rally in the next six months.

The Hammer-led massive upside move pushed Ether's monthly RSI to over 94, an extremely overbought zone. As a result, the cryptocurrency started consolidating sideways to neutralize its excessively bullish sentiments. RSI started correcting lower.

In parallel, Ether's monthly Stochastic RSI indicator, which compares its closing price with the price range over a given period, also started correcting lower after identifying the cryptocurrency as overbought (a reading above 80 is considered excessively bought and below 20 is considered excessively sold).

*Ethereum 2017 fractal indicator. Source: TradingView.com, Jaydee_757*

Later, in November 2017, the Stochastic RSI flipped bullish, with its %K line (the blue one), which compares an asset's lowest low and the highest high to define a price range, crossing above the %D line (the saffron line), which is a moving average of %K. Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI reading was above 20 at the time of flip, which boosted Ether's bullish continuation hopes.

Later, the Ethereum token surged by another 500%, closing above $1,200 in Jan 2018. It coincided with RSI forming a double top, as shown in the chart above. The entire bottom-to-top took place inside an ascending channel range, with its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level serving as support/resistance level.

The 2021 fractal repeat so far

Ether is almost mirroring the moves from the 2017 fractal as it heads into the final quarter of 2021, albeit without order.

In detail, the Ethereum token rallied by 3,400% to over $4,300, sixteen months after painting a bullish Stochastic RSI cross (when its a %K line surged above the %D line). Meanwhile, the huge upside move—again—pushed Ether's monthly RSI into its overbought zone.

*Ethereum 2017 fractal indicator versus 2021. Source: TradingView.com, Jaydee_757*

A consolidation period followed, which saw Ether making a Bullish Hammer in July 2021, suggesting sellers had formed a price bottom.

Jaydee_757, the pseudonymous analyst who first spotted the Ethereum fractal, highlighted the hammer's potential to send the Ether price flying, with a primary upside target sitting near the 2.618 Fib line (at around $13,000).

The bullish analogy also took cues from a potential Stochastic RSI bullish cross and a double top RSI, waiting to appear on Ether's monthly chart in the next "few months," similar to the one that coincided with the 500% price rally in 2018, as mentioned above.

Bitcoin’s key momentum metric just flashed bearish with BTC price pinned under $50K

August 29, 2021 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin's key momentum metric just flashed bearish with BTC price pinned under K</div>

000

The relative strength index is making lower highs while correcting from its overbought area.

The run-up in the Bitcoin (BTC) price toward $50,000 last week risks exhaustion due to a mismatch between the cryptocurrency's price and momentum trends.

So it appears the Bitcoin's price and relative strength index (RSI) have been moving in the opposite direction since late July. In doing so, even a strong push higher in the BTC/USD bids has coincided with lower peaks in momentum, suggesting that the pair's upside momentum is weakening out.

Bearish divergence

A normal RSI momentum tends to tail the price action. That said, it rises when the price rises and falls when the price drops. But in some cases, the RSI deviates from pursuing the price trends, leading to a so-called RSI divergence.

Technical analysts consider RSI divergence as a powerful signal to spot price reversals. For instance, a bullish divergence, wherein the price falls and RSI rises, prompts traders to buy the asset in anticipation of a rebound. Similarly, a bearish divergence—featuring rising prices and falling RSI—prompts traders to take profits at the top while expecting a pullback.

The Bitcoin daily chart below shows the cryptocurrency in bearish divergence.

*BTC/USD 1D chart featuring bearish divergence. Source: TradingView.com*

The downside signal appears as Bitcoin struggles to break bullish above $50,000. As of Sunday, the benchmark cryptocurrency was trading at $48,387, or 4.19% lower from its three-month high of $50,505, achieved on Aug. 3, following a similar 72.36% upside boom.

Good morning!$BTC has broken the ltf bullish structure. Main target remains $38k as long as it stays below $50k

If it finally drops to that level, buy as much as you can
— il Capo Of $NOIA (@CryptoCapo_) August 29, 2021

On the other hand, Bitcoin's daily RSI initially rallied in sync with prices but topped out on July 30, which was way ahead of price, hitting $50,505. Since July 30, the Bitcoin price formed a sequence of higher highs while RSI printed lower highs, suggesting a weakening upside momentum.

A similar bearish divergence between January and April 2021 was instrumental in predicting a Bitcoin price drop, as shown in the chart below.

*Bitcoin price-RSI divergence from January-April 2021 period. Source: TradingView.com*

Bullish indicators

The bearish divergence signal comes as Bitcoin holds strongly above $30,000, amidst anticipation that it would become a hedge of choice among accredited investors against inflationary pressures.

The perception has led many analysts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden and Fundstrat CEO Tom Lee, to predict a $100,000 valuation for the cryptocurrency in 2021.

On Friday, Bitcoin price shot upward by $1,500 in an hour after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell presented a pro-inflation, dovish policy outlook at this year's Jackson Hole symposium.

As a result, the biggest bullish indicator for Bitcoin remains the Fed's aggressive $120 billion a month asset purchase program, coupled with its near-zero interest rate policy.

The strong fundamental has prompted technical analysts to envision a long-term uptrend in the Bitcoin market. Namely, independent market analyst Teddy Cleps presented a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency, based on key wave support that acts as an accumulation area for traders.

*Bitcoin 4H chart featuring wave support. Source: Teddy Cleps, TradingView.com*

Similarly, Ryan Clark, another market analyst, noted that Bitcoin has been merely consolidating below $50,000 just like when it was trading below $24,000 before the December 2020's bullish breakout.

Bitcoin under 50k level acting like when it was under the 24k level.

Higher soon.
— Ryan Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) August 28, 2021

On the other hand, TraderXO noted that Bitcoin could still fall towards the $39,000-40,000 area but remained convinced that the cryptocurrency would log an attractive rebound from the lower range.

The analyst marked Bitcoin's all-time high near $65,000 as its long-term upside target.

$BTC

Taken significant profits around 48-49k - no daily close above 49k - until that happens then will look for higher prices.

Equally open towards the probability of buying opportunities around the 39-42's in Sept

Only interested in HTF swing trades. pic.twitter.com/jjvAFkCwmV
— TraderXO (@Trader_XO) August 29, 2021

Avalanche (AVAX) in ‘overbought’ zone after 100% gains in a week — Correction ahead?

August 19, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Avalanche

The AVAX/USD exchange rate slips more than 16% after testing its May resistance level.

The Avalanche blockchain platform's native asset, AVAX, fell on Aug. 19 as traders decided to secure their profits from its 100% upside move.

The AVAX/USD exchange rate plunged more than 16% after hitting a three-month high of $36.64, putting the brakes on a seven-day upside boom that saw its price rise by 111%. It appears that traders felt uneasy about entering AVAX markets near $36 because of its historical reference as a sell-off level, capping AVAX's previous recovery attempts from March to May.

Overvaluation risks

AVAX also dropped on interim overvaluation fears. The daily relative strength index (RSI) of Avalanche's token crossed above 70 during its upside boom. Essentially, markets consider an RSI reading above 70 as overbought for the underlying asset, noting that the price has climbed excessively higher and, therefore, should undergo a correction.

*Avalanche (AVAX/USD) daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

More evidence for AVAX's interim overvaluation appeared when looking at the Bollinger Bands. The indicator consists of a middle band (a 20-period simple moving average) and two outer bands set at two standard deviations below and above the middle band.

When the price overreaches its valuation in the short term, it tends to jump above the upper band. Similarly, slipping below the lower band suggests that the asset is trading below its current valuation. AVAX crossed above the upper Bollinger Band following the latest price rally.

The two indicators were instrumental in predicting recent AVAX price corrections. For instance, during the February rally where AVAX surged over 500% in just two weeks, its RSI and Bollinger Bands both alerted t its excessive interim valuation.

*AVAX momentum indicators alert overbought risks. Source: TradingView*

The price wiped off 65% of its gains in the next three weeks to neutralize its overbought status. Its next interim support came at the 23.6% Fibonacci line ($22.29) of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn between the $63.3 swing high and $9.62 swing low.

The same 23.6% Fibonacci level now serves as the next line of support should the price of AVAX correct following its RSI and Bollinger Bands alerts.

$AVAX Update https://t.co/ZUZ7NlamMA pic.twitter.com/3Y1qTNfySs
— Rager (@Rager) August 19, 2021

Fundamentals

The latest bout of AVAX's price boom appeared in the wake of the launch of its $180 million “liquidity mining incentive program” to bring decentralized finance (DeFi) services to its blockchain platform, including lending platform Aave and automated market protocol Curve Finance.

AVAX's bounce also appeared as a rally in the market of its top rival, Ether (ETH), flattened out. This is because traders tend to rotate capital out of overvalued markets to bet on assets they deem undervalued.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Why the XRP/USD 50-week EMA is key

Can XRP retake $1?

The bears' case

Could Fantom rally by another 50%?

Are there risks of overvaluation?

Bitcoin risks correction to $40K-42K range

The RSI factor

Bearish divergence

25%-35% SHIB price pullback?

The 2017 Ethereum fractal, explained

The 2021 fractal repeat so far

Bearish divergence

Bullish indicators

Overvaluation risks

Fundamentals

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