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Bitcoin open interest soars to 1-year high as BTC price rallies toward $68K

Demand for leverage in BTC futures jumped to $38 billion, but traders appear well-positioned enough to avoid surprise price swings.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 8% between Oct. 14 and 15, up 11.5% over the past 30 days. Bitcoin currently is significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which gained 3.8% during the same period. 

However, some traders are concerned that the sharp increase in demand for Bitcoin leverage could pose a potential risk.

The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest — which measures the total number of BTC futures contracts — signals a rising appetite for leverage, causing some unease among investors. High open interest can increase the risk of cascading liquidations due to unexpected upward or downward price movements, leading traders to anticipate heightened volatility.

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Bitcoin price fell 24%+ the last time this metric turned negative — Will it happen again? 

Bitcoin derivatives metrics shifted as BTC price fell under $59,000 today. Are lower prices incoming?

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 5.3% between Oct. 9 and Oct. 10, reaching a three-week low of $58,900. The market correction began after the United States reported higher-than-anticipated consumer inflation data, suggesting traders are concerned that the Federal Reserve has less incentive to continue cutting interest rates in the near future.

The reaction from Bitcoin price reflects investors’ view that there is an increased chance of a recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September compared to the prior month, which triggered concerns of 'stagflation' among investors, according to Yahoo News. In this scenario, prices continue to rise despite economic stagnation, a situation that runs contrary to the central bank's objectives of stimulating growth while controlling inflation.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose to a 14-month high, according to data released on Oct. 10. Initial filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased, reaching a seasonally adjusted 258,000 by Oct. 5. Although part of the rise can be attributed to a labor strike at Boeing, the broader negative impact on the economy remains a significant concern for policymakers, as reported by CNBC.

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BItcoin price faltered at $64K again — Here is why

Bitcoin struggles to overcome the $64,000 resistance as investors choose to invest in stocks and seek shelter in cash options amid socio-political uncertainty.  

Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to sustain levels above $66,000 since July 31, despite achieving a 5.2% gain between Oct. 3 and Oct. 7. Some analysts assert that Bitcoin benefits from the ever-growing United States federal debt; however, while this correlation appears valid, it has minimal influence on short-term price trends.

In reality, socio-political events seem to be the primary driver of Bitcoin’s limited upside, considering that the global monetary base (M2) has expanded from $104 trillion in June to $108 trillion in October, while Bitcoin was rejected multiple times at the $68,000 resistance level. This suggests that the rally to $64,000 is unlikely to be rooted in the US fiscal situation.

Bitcoin/USD vs. global monetary base (M2, billion). Source: TradingView

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Bitcoin price recovery driven by growing US financial concerns 

Bitcoin price recaptures the $62,000 level as investor grow increasingly concerned about the fiscal health of the US

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 2.4% since retesting the $59,900 support level on Oct. 3, despite facing initial resistance at $62,000. The gains on Oct. 4 were primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, such as US employment data, expectations of economic stimulus in Japan, and growing concerns about the US financial system.

In the US, the economy is booming, but fiscal conditions deteriorated. Interestingly, the US dollar surged to a 50-day high against other major currencies, including the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. 

Historically, the relationship between the US dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin has been inversely correlated. However, this latest movement seems to defy that pattern.

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3 reasons why Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to hold $64.5K

Bitcoin lost momentum as weak macroeconomic data, fear of a stock market correction, and worries over the upcoming US elections impacted investor sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged by 8.2% over the seven days leading up to Sept. 25, rising from $59,886 to $64,816. However, the $64,500 resistance level proved more challenging than expected. This same level was last tested a month prior, on Aug. 25. Weak macroeconomic data contributed to a decreased risk appetite among investors, but other factors also played a role in sparking a Bitcoin price correction on Sept. 25.

According to Yahoo Finance, the median new home sales price in the United States fell 4.6% year-over-year in August, following the fastest price increases since early 2022. Home prices have now declined for seven consecutive months, marking the longest stretch of declines since 2009. Notably, housing inventory remains near record highs, with 467,000 completed homes currently available for sale.

US new home sales, thousands. Source: Continuum Economics

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$8.1B in Bitcoin options expire this month — Do bulls or bears have the upper hand?

Will this week’s $8.1 billion Bitcoin options expiry fuel a rally to $70,000 or should traders anticipate a correction? 

Bitcoin (BTC) is about to experience its second-largest monthly options expiry of 2024, totaling $8.1 billion in aggregate exposure. The question is: will this be enough to fuel a robust rally toward $70,000, or are the bearish incentives too strong to ignore?

The current Macroeconomic environment favors risk-on assets, including Bitcoin and the Sept. 27 options expiry will be a pivotal event. The neutral-to-bullish options holders are well-positioned to capitalize if Bitcoin stays above $63,000. However, bears have enough motivation to curb this advantage by pushing Bitcoin’s price below $60,000. Thus, analyzing the options market's positioning and the potential net impact of the monthly expiry is crucial.

On Sept. 24, the Chinese stock market surged following the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) announcement of plans to lower borrowing costs and inject liquidity into the economy, including reduced mortgage repayment programs. Additionally, the PBOC pledged $113.8 billion to support the stock market, including measures for share purchases and buybacks. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, commented, “There is still room for further easing in the months ahead,” according to Yahoo Finance.

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Solana TVL declines, but will SOL price react negatively? 

SOL recently rallied to $152 but will a decline in Solana’s network TVL negatively impact the altcoin’s price? 

Solana (SOL), the native token of the Solana network, surged 16.4% between Sept. 18 and Sept. 20, but the $152 resistance level proved more formidable than expected, leading to a 6% pullback to its current level of $143. 

Investors are now questioning the cause of SOL's price weakness and whether the recent outflows from Solana network deposits signal a potential retest of the $120 support.

The recent gains in SOL price followed a broader altcoin market rally, which saw an 11% increase since Sept. 18, spurred by the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. This shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy also fueled a rally in the S&P 500 stock index, which reached an all-time high on Sept. 19. 

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Bitcoin price loses traction as miner profits drop and spot BTC outflows persist

Bitcoin has lost more than 10% in the past two weeks as fear of a US recession, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and the threat of miner capitulation grows.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 10% over the 10 days ending on Sept. 3, falling from $64,190 to $57,800. This decline occurred despite the S&P 500 index being just 2% below its all-time high and gold trading only $50 away from its historical peak. While some cryptocurrency investors attribute Bitcoin’s dip to the broader macroeconomic environment, other factors are also pushing its price below $59,000.

Source: DamiDefi

Trader DamiDefi explains that Bitcoin has been influenced by recession concerns in the United States, but that trend is stabilizing as the focus shifts to “monetary policy and the US dollar’s performance.” The “bullish narrative” for Bitcoin going forward will hinge on the expectation of a “looser Federal Reserve policy, [...] such as lowering interest rates.” Essentially, traders anticipate that the US will be compelled to implement expansionary measures to stimulate the economy.

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Bitcoin price keeps falling under $60K — Here is why

Many analysts say a drop in spot Bitcoin ETF demand is the primary reason for BTC’s price weakness, but there’s more to it than that. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain above $60,000 for an entire week, with the latest rejection occurring on Aug. 27. The subsequent 9.9% two-day correction, which saw Bitcoin fall to a low of $57,918 on Aug. 28, resulted in the forced liquidation of $143 million in leveraged BTC longs on derivatives exchanges. Traders are now questioning why Bitcoin keeps failing to break above $60,000.

Some analysts attribute the recent weakness to the disappointing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows. However, such data is typically reflexive, meaning traders often turn bearish after a news event alters their perception. More crucially, Bitcoin's most recent correction on Aug. 29 coincided with movements in the S&P 500 index.

Bitcoin/USD (left) vs S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

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Bitcoin’s weekend rally fizzles under $64K — Pro traders take neutral positions

Professional Bitcoin traders have yet to hop on the wagon after BTC’s weekend rally. Cointelegraph explains why.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 6.2% on Aug. 23, pushing its price to levels unseen in three weeks, and has since maintained the $63,000 support level. Despite this positive price movement, BTC derivatives traders appear to be relatively unmoved, indicating a lingering skepticism regarding the sustainability of this trend. 


Some market participants attributed the ongoing macroeconomic factors as the primary drivers for the crypto market's behavior, with investors eagerly awaiting the United States Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates in September.

Given that the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index is currently trading 2% below its highest-ever closing in July 2024, it’s challenging to argue that traders have become risk-averse. At the same time, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset that generally benefits during periods of uncertainty, is merely 0.6% below its all-time high. 

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