3 reasons why Bitcoin price failed to break $37K

November 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

3 reasons why Bitcoin price failed to break K

berkshire

Bitcoin’s latest price pullback to $35,000 was driven by softer U.S. inflation, China’s economic challenges and regulatory uncertainties.

Bitcoin (BTC) recently surged above $37,000 between Nov. 10 and 12, only to falter and undergo a correction toward $35,000 on Nov. 13.

This abrupt movement triggered the liquidation of $121 million worth of long futures contracts, and while Bitcoin’s price stabilized around $35,800 on Nov. 14, investors are left pondering the underlying factors behind this downturn .

*Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView*

U.S. inflation, gov’t shutdown impact on BTC price

Part of the catalyst behind this movement was the unexpected softening of United States inflation data on Nov. 14. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 3.2% increase in October compared to 2022, leading to a decline in yields on U.S. short-term Treasurys.

This triggered buying activity in traditional assets, potentially reducing the demand for alternative hedge instruments like Bitcoin. If the Federal Reserve’s strategy to curb inflation successfully without causing a recession pans out, Bitcoin may lose some of its appeal as a hedge.

Even Moody’s rating agency lowering its outlook on the U.S. credit to negative from stable on Nov. 11 did not sway favorably toward Bitcoin and other alternative hedges. Instead, investors sought refuge in short-term 5.25% fixed-income instruments, explaining why gold struggled to surpass $2,000 despite escalating debt levels and global economic challenges.

In China, October’s retail sales data indicated a 7.6% increase — the fastest since May. However, this apparent recovery conceals underlying issues, notably a 9.3% decline in property sector investments in the first 10 months of the year. China’s economic stimulus measures, including policy support and liquidity injections, have yielded only modest benefits.

Given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, its economic situation might contribute to investors’ cautious stance on riskier assets like Bitcoin, particularly when viewed within the broader global economic context. Additionally, recent political developments surrounding U.S. government shutdown threats could also influence Bitcoin’s performance.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Nov. 14 to keep the government operational through the holiday season, temporarily averting a fiscal crisis. However, this measure sets the stage for potential spending disputes in the coming year, including a provision to cut federal spending by 1% across the board in 2024 if no agreement is reached.

Spot Bitcoin ETF expectations, regulatory scrutiny

The cryptocurrency market experienced a negative reaction to a fraudulent BlackRock XRP trust filing on Nov. 13. Although it initially sparked hopes for an XRP (XRP) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., the $9 trillion asset manager swiftly dismissed the claim.

While this event is not directly linked to Bitcoin, it has drawn regulatory scrutiny to the crypto sector at a sensitive time when numerous spot Bitcoin ETF applications await review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Consequently, irrespective of the parties involved, the outcome represents a net positive for the cryptocurrency market.

On Nov. 13, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart emphasized that approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF should not be expected before January. This statement came amid heightened market anticipation surrounding upcoming SEC decisions scheduled for Nov. 17 and Nov. 21.

Heightened fear of global economic recession

In essence, the drop in Bitcoin’s price after flirting with the $37,000 level cannot be attributed to a single event. Investors may have reassessed their positions, considering Bitcoin’s substantial $725 billion market capitalization. For comparison, Berkshire Hathaway, a major conglomerate, boasts a $760 billion valuation while posting profits of $76.7 billion in the past year.

Bitcoin’s stringent monetary policy ensures scarcity and predictability, but major global corporations can repurchase their own stocks using earnings, effectively reducing the available supply. Furthermore, during economic downturns, these trillion-dollar companies can leverage their strong balance sheets during economic downturns to acquire competitors or expand their market dominance.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s challenge in maintaining momentum above $37,000 is influenced by factors such as data supporting the Federal Reserve’s strategy for a soft economic landing and concerns over global economic growth. These elements continue to create an unfavorable landscape for Bitcoin’s value, especially if the SEC delays decisions on spot BTC ETFs, aligning with market expectations.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

THORSwap goes into ‘maintenance mode’ to counter illicit funds movement

October 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

THORSwap acknowledged the ongoing illicit use of the DEX and are acting to find a permanent block to the misuse.

THORSwap, a decentralized exchange (DEX) powered by multichain THORChain, has entered maintenance mode to prevent bad actors from moving illicit funds through the platform.

On Oct. 6, THORSwap transitioned into “maintenance mode” as an immediate measure to counter the potential movement of illicit funds. The decision comes after consultation with advisors, legal counsel, and law enforcement, according to the original announcement.

Fellow THORChads,

A pressing and persistent concern has recently come to light: the potential movement of illicit funds through THORChain and, specifically, THORSwap. Such activities have no place on the THORSwap platform, and THORSwap stands firmly against any and all criminal…
— THORSwap ⚡ #BetterThanCEX (@THORSwap) October 6, 2023

Bad actors often use cross-chain platforms like THORSwap to move funds across multiple blockchains, making them untraceable. THORSwap has acknowledged the ongoing predicament and decided to find a permanent block to the misuse.

“THORSwap will remain in this (maintenance) mode until a more permanent and robust solution can be implemented to ensure the platform’s continued security and integrity.”

While most of the community did not welcome the decision to temporarily pull the plug on the platform, the move was attributed to the DEX’s intent to serve its customers for the long term. The company shared no further information on the ongoing investigations and remediation plans.

THORSwap did not respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.

While THORChain works toward strengthening its security measures before restarting its services, decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocol Yield Protocol announced the decision to permanently shut down.

Yield Protocol’s upcoming shutdown was accredited to the lack of business demand and rising regulatory pressures.

We’ve made the tough decision to wind down the Yield Protocol. The March 2024 fixed rate series will not be launched. Only the December 2023 series remains active for borrowing and lending. All borrowing and lending will end by December 31st. https://t.co/oHnCGgeP13
— Yield Protocol (@yield) October 3, 2023

“All borrowing and lending will end by December 31st,” confirmed Yield Protocol as it announced canceling the March 2024 fixed rate series launch. Unfavorable crypto regulations in the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom became one of the main reasons for Yield Protocol’s untimely shutdown.

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Here’s how Bitcoin investors can trade the tension surrounding a U.S. government shutdown

October 3, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Budget

Rumors of a US government shutdown impact asset prices, including Bitcoin. Here’s how BTC options traders can capitalize on the 45 day funding deadline.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bull run towards $28,000 on Oct. 1 was partially fueled by the uncertainty regarding the United States debt limit. However, the U.S. President Joe Biden signed the spending bill just hours before the Sept. 30 deadline, avoiding a government shutdown.

Investors now question if the momentum remains favorable for cryptocurrencies given that the worst-case political-economic scenario is no longer on the table. However, it is worth noting that this bill merely provides extra funding for the next 45 days, giving more time for the House and Senate to work on their funding plans for 2024.

At first glance, it might be tempting for investors to use futures contracts to go long on Bitcoin. However, there's a significant risk of getting liquidated if the price suddenly drops, and it's impossible to predict whether a successful budget discussion down the road will benefit cryptocurrencies.

With the current extension in place, now, lawmakers need to find a solution before Nov. 17. According to Margaret Spellings, the President and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center:

"We can't continue postponing our fiscal health and negotiating on the brink of government shutdowns and debt defaults."

There's no doubt that, despite narrowly avoiding a crisis, the overall risk of an economic recession remains. The U.S. Federal Reserve is grappling with persistent inflation and rising energy prices, factors that have driven the S&P 500 to its lowest point in 110 days and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to levels not seen since October 2007.

Additionally, oil prices have surged to $90, marking a 27.5% gain in just three months. This upward pressure on inflation is expected to further constrain economic activity.

On Sept. 27, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed uncertainty about whether interest rates have been raised sufficiently to combat this price growth.

Bitcoin’s initial reaction does not guarantee a bullish momentum

Amid all this turmoil, Bitcoin has increased in value, breaking through the $28,000 resistance on Oct. 2. This performance prompted investors to anticipate heightened volatility for the cryptocurrency as the upcoming debt ceiling decision approaches.

Professional traders will avoid directional risk given the uncertain outcome of the political debate and opt for the reverse (short) iron butterfly, a limited-risk, limited-profit trading strategy.

*Profit/Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The prices mentioned were accurate as of Oct. 2, with Bitcoin trading at $28,326. All options listed expire on Oct. 27, but this strategy can also be adapted for different time frames. It's essential to remember that options have a set expiry date, meaning that the price increase must occur during the defined period.

The recommended neutral-market strategy involves selling 5.4 contracts of $26,000 put options while simultaneously selling 5.4 call options with a $30,000 strike. To complete the trade, one should buy 5.8 contracts of $28,000 call options and an additional 5 contracts of the $28,000 put options.

While a call option grants the buyer the right to acquire an asset, the contract seller assumes a potential negative exposure. To fully shield against market fluctuations, an investor must deposit 0.253 BTC (approximately $7,170), representing the maximum potential loss.

Conviction in volatility is essential, as the risk-reward is reversed

For this investor to profit, Bitcoin's price must be below $26,630 on Oct. 27 (a decrease of 6%) or above $29,280 (an increase of 3.4%). In essence, the trade offers a potentially substantial profit zone, but losses are 90% higher than potential gains if Bitcoin remains stagnant.

The maximum payout is 0.133 BTC (roughly $3,770). However, if a trader believes that volatility is imminent, a 6% movement within 24 days appears achievable.

It's important to note that investors have the option to reverse the operation before the options expire, preferably after a substantial Bitcoin price movement. To do this, they should repurchase the two options they had initially sold and sell the two options they had originally bought.

Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge theory tested as rising interest rates bring turbulence to markets

September 29, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Banks

The losses on US Treasuries recently surpassed $1.5 trillion and the likely outcome is turbulent markets, but how will Bitcoin price fare?

The U.S. economy has been facing turbulent times lately, with the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation index rising by a significant 3.5% over the past 12 months. Even when excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, it's evident that the efforts made by the U.S. Federal Reserve to curb inflation have fallen short of their 2% target rate.

U.S. Treasuries have lost a staggering $1.5 trillion in value, primarily due to these rate hikes. This has led investors to question whether Bitcoin (BTC) and risk-on assets, including the stock market, will succumb to heightened interest rates and a monetary policy aimed at cooling economic growth.

*Theoretical losses of U.S. Treasury holders, USD. Source: @JoeConsorti*

As the U.S. Treasury keeps flooding the market with debt, there's a real risk that rates could climb even higher, exacerbating the losses to fixed-income investors. An additional $8 trillion in government debt is expected to mature in the next 12 months, further contributing to financial instability.

As Daniel Porto, the head of Deaglo London, pointed out in remarks to Reuters:

"(The Fed) is going to play a game where inflation is going to lead, but the real question is can we sustain this course without doing a lot of damage?"

Porto's comments resonate with a growing concern in financial circles—a fear that the central bank might tighten its policies to the point where it causes severe disruptions in the financial system.

High interest rates eventually have devastating consequences

One of the primary drivers behind the recent turmoil in financial markets is the rise in interest rates. As rates increase, the prices of existing bonds fall, a phenomenon known as interest rate risk or duration. This risk isn't limited to specific groups; it affects countries, banks, companies, individuals and anyone holding fixed-income instruments.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index has experienced a 6.6% drop in September alone. Additionally, the yield on the U.S. 10-year bonds climbed to 4.7% on Sept. 28, marking its highest level since August 2007. This surge in yields demonstrates that investors are becoming increasingly hesitant to take the risk of holding long-term bonds, even those issued by the government itself.

Banks, which typically borrow short-term instruments and lend for the long-term, are especially vulnerable in this environment. They rely on deposits and often hold Treasuries as reserve assets.

When Treasuries lose value, banks may find themselves short of the necessary funds to meet withdrawal requests. This compels them to sell U.S. Treasuries and other assets, pushing them dangerously close to insolvency and requiring rescue by institutions like the FDIC or larger banks. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), First Republic Bank, and Signature Bank serves as a warning of the financial system instability.

Federal Reserve shadow intervention could near exhaustion

While emergency mechanisms such as the Federal Reserve's BTFP emergency loan program can provide some relief by allowing banks to post impaired Treasuries as collateral, these measures do not make the losses magically disappear.

Banks are increasingly offloading their holdings to private credit and hedge funds, flooding these sectors with rate-sensitive assets. This trend is poised to worsen if the debt ceiling is increased to avoid a government shutdown, further raising yields and amplifying losses in the fixed-income markets.

As long as interest rates remain high, the risk of financial instability grows, prompting the Federal Reserve to support the financial system using emergency credit lines. That is highly beneficial for scarce assets like Bitcoin, given the increasing inflation and the worsening profile of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as measured by the $1.5 trillion paper losses in U.S Treasuries.

Timing this event is almost impossible, let alone what would happen if larger banks consolidate the financial system or if the Federal Reserve effectively guarantees liquidity for troubled financial institutions. Still, there’s hardly a scenario where one would be pessimistic with Bitcoin under those circumstances.

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