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One year on: Top 3 gainers after the ‘FTX crash bottom’

Bitcoin has more than doubled in price since the FTX collapse a year ago, but several other coins such as Chainlink have seen ever bigger gains since.

It's been a year since the demise of the FTX exchange — an event that's now increasingly looking like it was the Bitcoin (BTC), which is up roughly 120% from a year ago.

In November 2022, the FTX collapse wiped nearly $300 billion off the market cap, impacting several cryptocurrencies. The ones that suffered the most were tokens with deep financial ties to FTX, including Solana (SOL), Serum (SRM), and the exchange's own token, FTX Token (FTT).

Crypto market capitalization daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But a year later, things have not only improved for BTC, but for most cryptocurrencies impacted by the FTX collapse.

Here are the top-gainers (from the top-30 by market capitalization) that would have yielded the biggest profit if bought in November 2022.

Solana up 660% from FTX crash bottom

Solana's price plummeted by over 50% to $8 after the FTX collapse. The selloff occurred primarily because FTX and its sister firm, Alameda Research, held about 55 million SOL, triggering fears of a dump to plug liquidity holes.

Nonetheless, buying SOL a year ago would have produced a profit of over 660% today.

Solana's gains have largely stemmed from an overall upside sentiment in the crypto market, led by hopes about a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. At the same time, SOL's price has also benefited from subsiding fears about a potential dump by FTX.

FTX Token rival OKB is up 275%

OKX crypto exchange's token OKB was among the least-affected tokens by the FTX fiasco. Moreover, it has benefited greatly in terms of price after its top rival went bust.

Buying OKB at the FTX-led bottom of $17.20 a year ago would have yielded investors a 275% profit today.

OKB/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

OKB's price gains were Binance's loss, and its token BNB (BNB) has underperformed the market significantly as the exchange faces legal pressure in the United States. 

BNB has underperformed many of the top-30 cryptos over the past year, up only 16% from the FTX-bottom.

Chainlink 

Chainlink (LINK) had fallen by up to 40% following the FTX collapse. But its lower exposure to the crypto exchange, coupled with development updates, has resulted in a sharp price recovery since the event.

Notably, buying LINK in November 2022 at $5.68 would have produced over 180% profits today.

LINKUSD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Factors that helped LINK price rally in recent months include the launch of a new proof-of-reserve product, growing adoption, and increasing demand among professional investors as suggested by Grayscale's Chainlink trust trading at a 170% premium to LINK's spot price.

Grayscale Investments LINK premium rate. Source: Coinglass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana gains 80% in a month as Firedancer goes live on testnet

Solana’s scaling solution Firedancer is seen as a long-term solution to the blockchain’s once-frequent outages.

Solana (SOL) has posted 30-day gains of nearly 81%, and has rallied over 30% in the past week amid the testnet launch of the blockchain’s loawaited scaling solution Firedancer.

SOL reached over $41 on Nov. 2 touching highs it hasn’t seen since August last year, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Long touted as an “Ethereum killer” — SOL has vastly outperformed its rival Ether (ETH) which posted under 11% gains in the past month.

Three-month SOL price chart with gains up nearly 81% in 30 days. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

SOL-related investment products have also seen millions of dollars worth of inflows over the past weeks according to CoinShares. SOL is, however, still down around 84% from its Nov. 6, 2021, all-time high of almost $260.

On Oct. 31 at Solana’s Breakpoint conference, Solana Foundation executive director Dan Albert announced the testnet launch of Firedancer which Web3 development firm Jump Crypto has been building since last August.

Firedancer is a new validator client for the network which Solana Labs founder and CEO Anatoly Yakovenko has said is aimed at increasing speed, reliability and validator diversity. Its slated mainnet launch is in the first half of 2024.

Firedancer has been dubbed the long-term fix to Solana’s past network outage problems which Yakovenko called a “curse.”

Solana suffered 14 partial or major outages in 2022 but its uptime improved in 2023 with only one major outage, reported in February. ​​

However, there are concerns that selling pressure could hit SOL as $56 million worth of the cryptocurrency tied to FTX was unstaked and sent to an unknown wallet. An additional $32 million worth of SOL linked to FTX and Alameda Research also moved to a wallet suspected to be the firms’ designated liquidator Galaxy Digital.

Related: VanEck predicts a 10,600% Solana price rally by 2030

Other altcoins also saw strong price rallies over the month as crypto market sentiment turned positive. On Nov. 2 the Crypto Fear and Greed Index jumped six points from the day before to 72 out of 100 — reflecting a sentiment of “greed.”

Chainlink (LINK) saw an over 54% gain in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC), Avalanche (AVAX) and Near Protocol (NEAR) posted 30-day gains of 30%, 32% and 37.5% respectively.

Magazine: BitCulture: Fine art on Solana, AI music, podcast + book reviews

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana YTD inflows suggest it’s the ‘most loved altcoin’ — CoinShares

Solana has seen steady inflows over the last nine weeks, even as other crypto investment products have faced outflows over a similar period.

Solana (SOL) investment products clocked $26 million worth of inflows since the start of 2023, outpacing all other altcoins including Ether (ETH), suggesting it's the “most loved altcoin amongst investors” according to CoinShares.

In a Sep. 4 Digital Asset Fund Flows weekly report, CoinShares' head of research James Butterfill noted that trading volumes for crypto investment products for the week ending Sep. 1 were 90% above the year-to-date average — with crypto product outflows dropping to $11.2 million.

It marks a seven-week run of negative sentiment that’s seen $342 million leave crypto products over that time but YTD, investment products remain net inflow positive at $165 million.

Crypto investment products have mostly seen outflows over the past seven weeks. Source: CoinShares

The outflows haven’t affected Solana products however, which saw weekly inflows of $700,000 — the ninth straight week in a row with inflows of $14.1 million over that time and YTD inflows of $26 million.

Weekly fund flows show positive inflows to Bitcoin and Solana for the week ending Friday, Sep. 1. Source: CoinShares

Bitcoin (BTC) products were the only other asset to see weekly inflows, totaling $3.8 million, while Short BTC, Polygon (MATIC) and ETH products all recorded weekly outflows.

SOL’s price since Jan. 1 has traded mostly sideways. Source: Cointelegraph

Solana’s inflows come amid a streak of recent positive developments related to the network.

On Sep. 1, MakerDAO co-founder Rune Christensen submitted a proposal to build the project’s upcoming native chain off a fork of Solana’s codebase, despite its long-held ties to Ethereum.

Related: Bitcoin ETF applications: Who is filing and when the SEC may decide

On Aug. 23 it was reported that Shopify added the Solana-based payment network Solana Pay to its payment options — starting with the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC). 

The Solana network has also seen some performance and reliability improvements, with only one outage in 2023 so far.

SOL’s price is up around 95.5% YTD but has traded mostly sideways around $20 to $25 since mid-January. It was trading at around $19.5 as of 12 am UTC Sep. 5 according to Cointelegraph data.

However, SOL is down 92.5% from its November 2021 all-time high of nearly $260.

Magazine: BitCulture: Fine art on Solana, AI music, podcast + book reviews

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Price analysis 5/10: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT, LTC

Bitcoin and select cryptocurrencies are trying to start a rebound following the CPI data release but bulls may find it difficult to continue the recovery at higher levels.

The United States consumer price index rose 4.9% annually, which was slightly less than estimates of a 5% increase. The CPI’s monthly rise of 0.4% in April was in line with expectations.

Although inflation remains stubbornly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target range, traders will take comfort from the slower pace of increase. That suggests the Fed rate hikes are having their effect and further rate hikes may not be necessary.

If the Fed pivots and starts to cut rates as the FedWatch Tool projects, that may be positive for risky assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC) has responded positively to the CPI data and has risen above $28,000 on May 10.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While the downside looks limited, the bulls may not have it easy at higher levels because of the high risk of a recession and the possibility of the banking crisis erupting again. That may keep the price stuck inside a range, which may act as a base for the next leg of the rally when that happens.

What are the important support and resistance levels to watch out for on Bitcoin and the major altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin broke below the moving averages on May 7 and nosedived to the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on May 8. The bulls are trying to defend this level with vigor but the recovery may face difficulties at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to aggressively defend the zone between the moving averages and the resistance line. If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, the BTC/USDT pair could descend to the breakout level of $25,250.

This is an important level to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the selling could intensify and BTC price can plunge to the psychologically important level of $20,000.

Conversely, if bulls thrust the price above the resistance line, it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could first rally to $30,000 and then attempt an up-move to $32,400.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($1,887) and the support line for the past two days but this tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price clears the hurdle at the moving averages, it will indicate strong buying at lower levels. The ETH/USDT pair will then try to climb to the psychological resistance at $2,000. The bears are expected to fiercely defend this level but if bulls overcome this barrier, ETH price may soar to $2,200.

Contrarily, if the price fails to sustain above the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are pouncing on every minor rally. A break below the support line could start a down move that may reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,663.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) broke below the triangle on May 7, indicating that the uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The selling intensified on May 8 and the BNB/USDT pair started its journey toward psychological support at $300. This level may attract buying, which could start a recovery to the 20-day EMA ($322).

If the price turns down from this level, it will enhance the prospects of a break below $300. The next support is at $280.

If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to push BNB price back above the 20-day EMA. If they are successful, the pair may reach the overhead resistance at $338.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) crashed below the $0.43 support on May 8 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair is witnessing a tough battle near the breakdown level of $0.43. The bears are trying to flip the level into resistance while the bulls are attempting to push the price above it.

If XRP price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.40, the bearish momentum may pick up and the pair could drop to $0.36. This negative view will be invalidated in the short term if bulls kick the price above the resistance line.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) plummeted below the $0.37 support on May 8, indicating that bears are trying to seize control.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are trying to stall the decline near the uptrend line but they are likely to face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $0.37. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped $0.37 into resistance.

That will enhance the prospects of a break below the uptrend line. The ADA/USDT pair may then start its decline to $0.33 and later to $0.30. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a rally to $0.42.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) continued its downward journey and touched the solid support at $0.07 on May 8. The bulls are trying to achieve a bounce off this level.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The relief rally is likely to reach the downtrend line where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the price turns down from this level, the bears will again try to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below the support at $0.07. If they succeed, the pair may plunge to $0.06, which is not major support. If this level gives way, the pair may collapse to $0.05.

Conversely, if buyers thrust the price above the downtrend line, it will signal the start of a stronger recovery. DOGE pric may then rise to the overhead resistance zone of $0.10 to $0.11.

Polygon price analysis

Polygon (MATIC) nosedived below the vital support at $0.94 on May 8, indicating that the bears are in command.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp fall of the past few days pulled the RSI into the oversold territory, suggesting that a recovery is possible. The sellers will try to pounce on any relief rally and keep the price below the $0.94 level. If they do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could start its journey toward the strong support at $0.69.

Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.98) will suggest that lower levels are attracting solid buying. That may trap several aggressive bears and propel MATIC price toward the resistance line.

Related: Pepe vs. Doge: How memecoins performed first time hitting $1B market cap

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) turned down from the downtrend line on May 6 and fell to the strong support at $19.85 on May 8.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are trying to start a recovery but the rebound lacks conviction. If Solana price turns down from the current level and plunges below $19.85, the SOL/USDT pair may fall to $18.70. This level may again act as a strong support.

If bulls want to prevent a decline, they will have to quickly drive the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, SOL price could rise to $24 and subsequently to the overhead resistance at $27.12.

Polkadot price analysis

The bulls are trying to protect the strong support at $5.15 as seen from the long tail on Polkadot’s (DOT) May 8 candlestick.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The recovery is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA ($5.77) as the bears have been guarding this level with vigor. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will make another attempt to sink the DOT/USDT pair below $5.15. If they can pull it off, Polkadot price risks a drop to $4.50.

Contrarily, if the relief rally pierces the 20-day EMA, DOT price may rise to the 50-day SMA ($6.10) and later reach the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback.

Litecoin price analysis

Litecoin (LTC) rebounded off the crucial support at $75 on May 8, indicating that the bulls are trying to arrest the decline at this level.

LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($86) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If Litecoin price turns down from this level, it will increase the likelihood of a break below $75. If that happens, the LTC/USDT pair could tumble to $65.

Contrary to this assumption, if bulls drive LTC price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bearish pressure is reducing. The pair may first recover to the 50-day SMA ($90) and thereafter dash toward $96.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

SUI price drops 70% from market debut top amid excessive supply concerns

The circulating supply of SUI tokens will grow by nearly 15% by the end of 2023.

The price of Sui (SUI) has dropped sharply after its market debut across leading cryptocurrency exchanges.

On May 5, the SUI price was $1.26 per token, down about 70% from its record high of around $4, established two days ago on Binance.

Interestingly, on other exchanges like Kraken, the token’s market top was $1.60 or lower, suggesting it was in “price discovery” mode after the launch.

SUI/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Still, SUI maintains its overall market gains, up nearly 1,200% from its market debut.

Early SUI price fundamentals

SUI’s initial uptrend drew support from traders who view Sui — a new entry into the long list of layer-1 blockchain projects — as potentially more scalable than its rivals.

Mysten Labs, Sui’s original contributor, asserts that it will become the first internet-scale programmable blockchain platform thanks to its claims of processing about 300,000 transactions per second. In comparison, Solana handles up to 10,000 transactions per second.

Venture capitalists led by Andreessen Horowitz and FTX Ventures have invested $336 million in the Sui project via two investment rounds in 2021 and 2022. Mysten Labs confirmed that the rounds gave investors access to its firm’s equities, not SUI tokens.

However, the project’s token economics shows that it has allocated 14% of its 10 billion SUI supply to investors. Mysten Labs has not yet revealed when it will distribute these tokens or any associated vesting schedule.

SUI token distribution model as of May 1. Source: Messari

Regarding FTX Ventures, a subsidiary of the now-defunct FTX crypto exchange, Mysten Labs repurchased the stake held by the firm in April 2023. Furthermore, it took back the rights to buy SUI tokens previously held by FTX for about $96 million.

SUI supply overload?

Traders and analysts have shown their conviction in the Sui project’s goals to become an attractive blockchain alternative. However, there are also concerns about SUI’s supply schedule.

Related: What is Tokenomics? A beginner’s guide on supply and demand of cryptocurrencies

Notably, the Sui Foundation plans to increase the SUI supply by approximately 15% by the end of 2023, which, according to analyst Dmitriy Lavrov, could prompt traders to wait for further price declines before entering the market.

From a short-term technical perspective, the SUI price faces interim sell-off pressure near $1.31.

A pullback scenario could have the token eye $1.26 as its short-term downside target. And suppose the oversupply scenario prevails. Then, the price could drop to $1.21 on May 5 or over the weekend, down 7% from current prices. 

SUI/USD 15-minute price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, analyst Ameba sees SUI rising toward $1.50 in May based on its decisive close above its descending trendline resistance. Fellow trader Crypto Mikey projects a similar uptrend for the Sui price.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

SOL price risks 20% drop despite Grayscale Solana Trust’s retail debut

The latest Solana rally has had it return to the resistance range that prompted 25-40% price pullbacks multiple times this year.

On April 17, the price of Solana (SOL) crept lower in the wake of similar price moves across the top-ranking cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

SOL's price dropped over 4% under $24.50 despite rising to $26 — a two-month high — earlier in the day.

In comparison, BTC's and ETH's prices dropped 3.5% and 3%, respectively, hinting at a bearish start to the week.

SOL/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

SOL price in a technical correction

The SOL/USD selloff on April 17 started after it entered its 2023 resistance range.

Notably, the $25-27 price area has capped Solana's upside attempts since January 2023. Testing it as resistance has preceded 25-40% corrections on multiple occasions this years, as illustrated below.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The possibility of undergoing a sharp bearish reversal in April has now increased as SOL's price returns into the range and its daily relative strength index (RSI) hangs around the overbought threshold of 70.

In this bear scenario, the immediate downside target appears to be around $20, about 20% lower than the current prices. 

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the $25-27 price range could have SOL price climb toward $30, which served as support in August-October 2022.

Such a breakout could extend until $35 over the next few months, and this level coincides with SOL's 50-week exponential moving average (the red wave in the chart below).

SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Grayscale Solana Trust goes public

On April 17, U.S.-based Grayscale Investments announced that its Grayscale Solana Trust has begun trading on OTC Markets under the symbol: GSOL.

Related: Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

To recap: the Grayscale Solana Trust is a security that derives its value from the SOL's spot price. In doing so, the trust enables investors to gain exposure in the Solana market while avoiding the challenges of buying, storing, and safekeeping SOL directly.

Interestingly, SOL's price dropped by up to 4.40% after the announcement, suggesting traders likely "sold the news" of an institutional Solana investment product going public. 

SOLUSD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

One reason for the bearish debut for GSOL is the current state of Grayscale Trusts on the whole. Notably, they act like closed-end funds, meaning Grayscale cannot issue new shares or remove shares from the open market to adjust to capital inflow or outflow.

As a result, the share price of the Solana Trust can deviate from the net asset value. This could spook investors in a bear market when their GSOL starts trading at a discount versus the value of Grayscale's SOL reserves, similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

As of April 17, Grayscale Solana Trust's holdings per share were up around 148% YTD stemming from identical gains in SOL/USD. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana overcomes FTX fiasco — SOL price gains 100% in Q1

The cryptocurrency market may have overreacted to Solana's FTX links and its tainted boss Sam Bankman-Fried.

The price of Solana (SOL) fell nearly 95% in 2022, partly due to its association with tainted crypto entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried and his collapsed ventures FTX and Alameda Research. But so far in 2023, things have improved for the SOL price.

Solana price doubles in Q1/2023

Solana's price has risen 104% to around $20.60 per SOL in the first quarter of 2023, the highest gains compared to any cryptocurrency in the top-25, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

Solana beats top-ranking assets' Q1/2023 returns. Source: Messari

In fact, January was Solana's best month since August 2021 in terms of price performance.

SOL price rallied by about 140% in it, without any major fundamentals that could have driven the rates up. Nonetheless, the SOL/USD pair became excessively oversold in December 2022, which may have influenced traders to buy the dip

The rally also coincided with Messari's analysis of the Solana ecosystem after the FTX collapse, showing its staking and decentralization was stable and actually improved its position after the FTX fiasco.

"Solana will continue to release a multitude of initiatives, including network upgrades, ecosystem developments, and community efforts, to name a few," wrote James Stautman, researcher at Messari, adding:

"After a tumultuous year fraught with one challenge after another, light appears to be at the end of the tunnel heading into 2023."

In other words, the market may have overreacted to Solana's ties with Sam Bankman-Fried in Q4 of last year, resulting in a sharp rebound.

What's next for SOL price?

Solana underperformed the broader crypto market in February and March, after SOL's January spike left it technically overbought.

Related: Solana plans to improve its blockchain: Here’s how

Solana price lost about 40% from the January peak. Its market dominance (SOL.D) also dropped from 0.98% in January to 0.69% in March, suggesting that traders rotated capital elsewhere. 

SOL.D monthly price chart. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, as of March 31, Solana trades above two technical support levels: a horizontal trendline that has capped SOL's downside attempts mostly throughout Q1/2023 and an ascending trendline that served as backup support in early March when the horizontal one failed.  

These two support levels have converged. Therefore, SOL/USD now eyes a short term bounce from there toward a multi-month support/resistance flip level around $26.50, as shown below. 

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

That leaves Solana with a 30% upside prospects in April. Conversely, a drop below the two support levels could have SOL price retest its March low of $16 as the next downside target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana price rally risks exhaustion after SOL’s 120% pump in two weeks

SOL price has been unable to close above a key resistance level of around $17.50 despite its big rebound in the past two weeks.

Solana (SOL) price is up an impressive 60% since the new year, partially boosted by hype surrounding meme cryptocurrency Bonk (BONK). However, the SOL/USD pair now shows signs of exhaustion, raising anticipations that the token may see a short-term correction in the coming days.

Solana turns overbought

Solana is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies so far in 2023 after being one of the biggest losers in 2022. 

On Jan. 9, SOL's price jumped to as high as $19.50, or around 120% gains in a recovery rally after sliding below $8 on Dec. 29, 2022.

But the price spik also turned Solana into an overbought asset, per its daily relative strength index (RSI) reading above 70, as shown below.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Traditional investors typically see an overbought RSI as a potential sell signal, given the indicator has historically coincided with a period of buyer exhaustion. As a result, SOL's price could enter a correction or a sideways consolidation stage to bring back its RSI below 70.

Related: Bitcoin price taps $17.5K as traders in ‘disbelief’ doubt crypto rally

Should it happen, the Solana token's next downside target appears at around its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $14.50.

Meanwhile, an extended selloff could land the price near its 20-day EMA (the green wave) near $13.35, or a 20% correction.

Buy the SOL price dip? 

On a longer-timeframe chart, however, SOL eyes a decisive breakout move above its prevailing resistance level of around $17.50.

SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The $17.50 level was instrumental in capping SOL's downside attempts in the April-July 2021 session. Therefore, a successful flip of the resistance level into support could prompt traders to open new bullish positions toward $25, a level coinciding with SOL's descending trendline resistance (black).

Conversely, failing to flip the $17.50 resistance level could risk sending SOL back below $8, a possibility if one considers the negative fundamentals surrounding the Solana ecosystem.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana entities sold 50M tokens to FTX — How long will SOL price suffer?

Most of FTX's Solana exposure stands vested, meaning the defunct exchange will gradually gain access to millions of SOL up until January 2028.

Solana (SOL) has lost 60% of its market value in a week due to its exposure to the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, which could continue to haunt the "Ethereum killer" well into the future.

FTX/Alameda exposure hurting Solana price

FTX and its sister-firm Alameda Research is liable to have control over 50 million SOL, according to Solana's statement released on Nov. 10.

The FTX entities received 4 million SOL from the Solana Foundation on Aug. 31, 2020. They also started receiving a portion of 12 million SOL from Sep. 11, 2020, and nearly 34.52 million SOL from Jan. 7, 2021, through a "linear monthly unlock" mechanism.

Summary of SOL sales to FTX/Alameda Research. Source: Solana Labs

Furthermore, the FTX entities started receiving portions of a 7.5 million SOL reserve from Solana Labs on Feb. 17, 2021. Notably, a transaction worth 62,000 SOL between the same entities stands unsettled.

Most SOL tokens promised to FTX/Alameda are vested, meaning the firm does not yet have them in custody but is liable to receive them through the linear monthly unlock mechanism. The last of these unlocks will occur by January 2028.

That leaves the market with interpretations about what might happen to the SOL tokens once they are unlocked, given FTX's bankruptcy filing that's likely to put a freeze on all remaining funds.

Also, the firm reportedly has $9 billion in liabilities versus a $1 billion balance sheet, which could prompt its trustees to liquidate its SOL holdings to repay debtors.

To avoid such a scenario, Solana could make technical changes to its token economy, reducing FTX's impact. One recent governance proposal submitted on Nov. 13 presented a few options that could be on the table, including:

  1. The errant allocation is burned.
  2.  Increase the lock to 10 years on the errant allocation.
  3. Airdrop all SOL token holders' additional SOL, except for the party holding the errant allocation.
  4. A combination of the above.

SOL price relief bounce?

From a technical perspective, Solana shows signs of bullish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI).

A bullish divergence materializes when an asset's price forms lower lows but its momentum indicator form a higher low. Traditional analysts see it as a buy signal, which may result in a short-term SOL price recovery on its daily chart.

SOL/USD daily price chart featuring bullish divergence. Source: TradingView

SOL/USD could rise toward $18, its range resistance level, in the event of a short-term recovery. In other words, a 20% rebound.

Related: Liquidity hub Serum forked by developers after FTX hack

But on longer-timeframe charts, SOL could see further decline toward $2.50, or an 80%-plus drop, in 2023, based on a giant head-and-shoulders setup shown below. 

SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring head-and-shoulder breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Interestingly, the token's downside target falls in its most voluminous range, per its Volume Profile Visible Range, or VPVR, indicator.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’

Solana erases its ‘Google rally’ gains but a 50% SOL price recovery is still in play

Solana bulls show signs of countering the ongoing correction trend, raising anticipations that SOL price would recover in the coming months.

A recent price rally in the Solana (SOL) market ran out of steam midway as traders’ attention shifted to crypto-focused hedge fund Alameda Research’s insolvency rumors.

Alameda Research insolvency rumors affect SOL 

On Nov. 7, SOL’s price plunged nearly 6% to about $30.50. The intraday selloff came as a part of a broader pullback trend that started on Nov. 5 when SOL peaked at around $38.75. Between then and now, the Solana token is down over 20%.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The beginning of SOL’s plunge coincided with reports that Alameda Research has liabilities worth $8 billion but may not have liquid assets on its balance sheet to meet those obligations.

Interestingly, the value of all those assets plunged synchronously in the past 48 hours — including SOL, as well as FTX Token (FTT), Serum (SRM) and Oxygen (OXY) — on fears of cascading liquidation if Alameda Research becomes insolvent.

Google partnership, NFT growth

Nevertheless, traders showed interest in holding SOL’s price above $30, a technical support level, on Nov. 7. One reason could be a flurry of optimistic news that emerged over the weekend, including the launch of smartphones, DApp stores, and a Google Cloud partnership.

In addition, Solana continues gaining higher traction in the nonfungible token (NFT) sector. For instance, the total number of NFTs released on the Solana blockchain is up 19.3% quarter-over-quarter to reach over 8 million in Q3 2022.

“Several developments across Solana’s NFT sector allowed it to maintain a strong position relative to a peer group of the top L1s by secondary NFT sales volume,” noted James Trautman, researcher at data resource Messari, adding:

“Secondary sales volume managed to eclipse Ethereum in early September. The majority of the activity during that period took place on Magic Eden V2.”
Solana NFT secondary sales volume dominance. Source: Messari/CryptoSlam

On Nov. 2, Instagram added support for Solana-based NFTs, enabling users to create, sell and market their favorite digital arts and collectibles.

50% SOL price rebound?

As mentioned above, the SOL price’s correction showed signs of exhaustion when it retested $30 as its support level on Nov. 7.

SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Since August 2022, two rebound moves from this support line saw SOL recovering to nearly $37, excluding one time when the price slipped toward $27.75 in October. The same price ceiling, coupled with a multi-month descending trendline resistance, was instrumental in capping the Solana token’s price rally in the week ending Nov. 6.

Related: Solana’s co-founder addresses the blockchain’s reliability at Breakpoint

A break above the $37 resistance line could have SOL test the $44.25-47 range thereafter, or a 50% price rally when measured from current price levels, by December 2022

Conversely, an extended selloff below the $27.75-$30 support area risks sending SOL’s price to around $19.50, or about 40% lower than today’s price.

SOL/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The $19.50 level served as support between March and July 2021, as shown in the chart above.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Jeremy Allaire Unveils Stablecoin Prediction, Says One Use-Case ‘Definitely The Killer App’