Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino believes one scenario is likely to play out for both Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX) in the coming months. In a new strategy session, Pizzino tells his 290,000 YouTube subscribers that both BTC and the S&P 500 could dip at the start of October before entering a bull market […]
The post Here’s What’s in Store for Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 for Q4 2023, According to Crypto Analyst Jason Pizzino appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is predicting that the stock market will soon form a bottom after witnessing corrective moves for three consecutive weeks. In a new blog post, the macro expert says that the S&P 500 (SPX) will likely enter oversold territory as soon as this week. He predicts institutional buyers will move […]
The post Macro Guru Raoul Pal Predicts Imminent Stock Market Bottom, Updates Outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A widely followed crypto analyst is updating his outlook on the markets after a huge week of gains for digital assets. Crypto trader Justin Bennett tells his 112,400 Twitter followers that now is not the time to go long on Bitcoin (BTC). “BTC most likely a flush of late longs here. Def not where you want to […]
The post Analyst Breaks Down Bitcoin (BTC), US Dollar Index and Two Major Stock Indices After Huge Week for Crypto appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A widely followed crypto analyst is warning traders to be on the lookout for tough months ahead as the markets retrace. Crypto trader Justin Bennett warns his 112,000 Twitter followers that the total crypto market cap (TOTAL) is on its way down. “TOTAL” TOTAL is a market cap measure of the entire digital asset space, Bitcoin (BTC) […]
The post Top Trader Warns Things Aren’t Looking Good for Crypto, Updates Outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
The banking crisis in the U.S. has led to aggressive buying in Bitcoin and select altcoins, which are nearing stiff overhead resistance levels.
Three banks, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature collapsed within a span of a few days. That increased demand for United States government bonds, which sent the yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbling to 4.06%, a fall of 100 basis points since March 8.
This was the largest 3-day decline since Oct. 22, 1987, following the stock market crash, when the yield fell 117 points.
Although the Federal Reserve announced the formation of a $25 billion Bank Term Funding Program to support businesses and households, the regional banks are taking it on their chin on March 13. This shows that equities traders remain nervous.
However, among all the mayhem, it is an encouraging sign to see Bitcoin (BTC) lead the cryptocurrency recovery from the front. Bitcoin climbed back above $24,000 on March 13, covering a large distance from the $19,549 local low hit on March 10.
Could Bitcoin and the major altcoins sustain their short-term bullish momentum? Let’s study the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 index (SPX) plunged below the 200-day simple moving average (3,940) on March 9 and followed that up with another downward move on March 10.
A break below the 200-day SMA is a bearish sign but if the price quickly turns up and climbs back above the level, it will suggest that the breakdown on March 9 may have been a bear trap.
The index could gain momentum after buyers thrust the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (3,986). There is a minor resistance at 4,078 but it is likely to be crossed. The index may then soar to 4,200.
On the downside, a break and close below 3,764 will suggest that the traders are rushing to the exit. That next support is at 3,700 and then 3,650.
The recovery in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) stalled just below the 200-day SMA (106). This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. The selling has pulled the price below the 20-day EMA (104) on March 13.
The flattening 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand. This could keep the index range-bound between 101 and the 200-day SMA for some time.
If the price turns down and plummets below the support near 101, the index will complete a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. This bearish setup could start the next leg of the downtrend.
Conversely, a break above the 200-day SMA will attract buyers who may then push the price to 108 and thereafter to 110.
Bitcoin price rebounded off the 200-day SMA ($19,717) on March 10 and the recovery picked up momentum after the break above $21,480. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The bulls continued the upward march and cleared the hurdle at $22,800 on March 13. This opens the gates for a retest of the stiff overhead resistance at $25,250. If buyers overcome this barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could witness aggressive short covering. That may catapult the price to $30,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair may oscillate between the 200-day SMA and $25,250 for a while longer. Such a move will be a positive sign and improve the prospects of a break above the overhead resistance. This positive view could invalidate if the price turns down and plunges below the 200-day SMA.
Ether (ETH) rebounded off the support near $1,352, indicating aggressive buying at lower levels. The recovery strengthened after bulls pushed the price back above $1,461.
The ETH/USDT pair rose back above the 20-day EMA ($1,565) on March 12, indicating that bulls are back in the game. Buyers will next try to stretch the relief rally to the overhead resistance at $1,743.
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the momentum favors the bulls. If buyers surmount the resistance at $1,743, the pair could soar to the psychological level at $2,000.
BNB (BNB) completed a bearish H&S pattern on March 9 but the sellers could not build upon this negative setup. Buyers purchased the drop on March 10 as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
The buying continued on March 12 and the bulls pushed the price back above the 200-day SMA. This may have trapped the aggressive bears who rushed to close their short positions.
That could be the reason for the sharp up-move on March 13, which propelled the price back to the overhead resistance at $318. If bulls clear this hurdle, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $338.
If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $338 and $265 for a few days.
XRP (XRP) has been consolidating near the strong support of $0.36 for the past few days. Usually, a tight consolidation near the support resolves to the downside.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.37) and the RSI in both i negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
If the price turns down from the current level and closes below $0.36, the XRP/USDT pair may drop to the support line of the descending channel pattern. The buyers are likely to defend the support near $0.33.
Alternatively, a break and close above the channel will be the first sign that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair may then ascend to the 200-day SMA ($0.39) and later to $0.43.
Cardano (ADA) slipped below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.30 but the bears could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests solid buying by the bulls.
The ADA/USDT pair has pulled back above the 20-day EMA ($0.34). The zone between the moving averages is likely to be defended aggressively by the bears. If the price turns down from the current level, the pair may retest the strong support at $0.30. If this level cracks, the pair could drop to $0.27 and then to $0.24.
Conversely, if buyers kick the price above the 200-day SMA ($0.36), it will suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair may then rally to $0.42.
Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?
Polygon (MATIC) rebounded off the 200-day SMA ($0.95) on March 10 and reached the 20-day EMA ($1.16) on March 12.
The bears tried to stall the recovery at the 20-day EMA on March 13 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. Buyers have shoved the price above the 20-day EMA, paving the way for a rally to $1.30.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears are guarding the 20-day EMA. That may keep the MATIC/USDT pair stuck between the moving averages for some time.
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned up from $0.06 on March 10 and rose above the $0.07 resistance on March 12. The bulls will next try to push the price to the downtrend line.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears remain in control. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA or the downtrend line, the DOGE/USDT pair could again drop to $0.06. If this level gives way, the pair could extend the decline to $0.05.
Contrarily, if bulls pierce the overhead resistance at the 200-day SMA ($0.08), it will suggest that the markets have rejected the lower levels. That could first push the price to $0.10 and eventually to $0.11.
Solana (SOL) started a recovery from $16 on March 10 but the relief rally is facing strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($20.69).
The bears will again try to sink the price back to the solid support at $15.28. A break below this crucial support could accelerate selling and the SOL/USDT pair may tumble to $12.69.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. That could result in a retest of the strong overhead resistance zone between the 200-day SMA ($23) and the downtrend line. A break above this zone could indicate a potential trend change.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
A widely followed crypto analyst is predicting a big break out for Bitcoin (BTC) after a quick retest of a lower price level. Pseudonymous analyst Kaleo tells his 565,000 Twitter followers that bears are wrongly claiming Bitcoin is heading to the downside. Instead, he says Bitcoin is only retesting the price of $23,000 before it […]
The post Top Trader Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Eruption After Impending Fakeout – Here’s His Target appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A widely followed crypto analyst is highlighting the price level Bitcoin (BTC) bulls must hold as the crypto markets bounce. With BTC trading for $23,984 at time of writing, analyst Justin Bennett tells his 111,400 Twitter followers that Bitcoin bulls must hold $23,000. “If BTC is going to bounce, it has to do it soon. $23,000 is […]
The post Analyst Names ‘Must-Hold’ Level for Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls As Crypto Market Drops appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Up or down, it is high time that Bitcoin made a significant move, market participants agree.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week keeping everyone guessing as a tiny trading range stays in play.
A non-volatile weekend continues a familiar status quo for BTC/USD, which remains just above $19,000.
Despite calls for a rally and a run to lower macro lows next, the pair has yet to make a decision on a trajectory — or even signal that a breakout or breakdown is imminent.
After a brief spell of excitement seen on the back of last week’s United States economic data, Bitcoin is thus back at square one — literally, as price action is now exactly where it was at the same time last week.
As the market wonders what it might take to crack the range, Cointelegraph takes a look at potential catalysts in store this week.
For Bitcoin traders, it is a case of “almost too quiet” when it comes to the BTC/USD weekly chart.
Having come down significantly in volatile conditions over the first half of 2022, recent months have seen an almost eerie lack of volatility.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView proves the point — on one-week timeframes, Bitcoin continues to print candles with almost nobody whatsoever.
Such is the stickiness of the current range that, as Cointelegraph reported, the Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL) is at lows only seen a handful of times.
“Equity volatility (VIX) relative to Bitcoin volatility (BVOL) is approaching all-time highs,” William Clemente, co-founder of digital asset research and trading firm Reflexivity Research, added in comments last week:
“This illustrates just how much volatility compression Bitcoin is currently experiencing.”
An accompanying chart neatly captured Bitcoin as a curiously stablecoin-esque pick in the current climate, with Clemente implying that a return to the classic, more volatile paradigm should follow.
The week prior, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger additionally noted that an “explosive move” had followed all prior trips to macro lows on BVOL.
He argued that United States macro data missing expectations “would do it” in terms of rekindling volatility, but in the event, the numbers remained just short of the trigger range.
Cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital agreed.
“Historically speaking, when the BVOL falls below a value of 25, a large spike in volatility tends to follow shortly thereafter,” it stated in part of Twitter comments.
This week, meanwhile, popular crypto investor and analyst Miles Deutscher told traders to “get ready” while commenting on the Delphi data.
The question for everyone remained the direction that volatility would take the market in.
For Il Capo of Crypto, the trader who predicted Bitcoin’s descent to $20,000 levels from all-time highs, expectations remained the same.
$21,000 should feature as part of a relief bounce, only to be eclipsed by a fresh dive to multi-year lows for BTC/USD, these potentially coming in at $14,000-$16,000.
“Some shitcoins will experience scam pumps during these days, while $BTC goes to 21k. This could give you the illusion that the bull market is back,” he warned over the weekend:
“My advice: don’t be greedy. Take profits if this happens. Protect your capital.”
While little is expected from the Federal Reserve in terms of direct policy changes this week, there is still plenty of firewood for crypto volatility set to be provided by external forces.
In the United States, company earnings will be coming in thick and fast, with tech stocks particularly apt to move markets in the event of results falling wide of expectations.
Reporting firms represent over 20% of the S&P 500, which like other U.S. indexes is showing rare weakness this year.
“In my mind, the odds of a low coming in the next week or two are decently high,” Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of RealVision, predicted overnight alongside an accompanying chart:
“The SPX weekly DeMark hits next week, near the bottom of the channel and the 50% retracement, with RECORD bearish sentiment.”
Charting the week ahead, financial commentary resource the Kobeissi Letter likewise told subscribers to “prepare for more volatility.”
More U.S. data will join earnings this week, it explained, while Fed officials will comment on overall policy.
“The median bear market with a recession dating back to 1929 has fallen 39%,” it wrote about stock market strength in one of the various posts over the weekend:
“Furthermore, the median bear market with a recession lasts 16 months. We are currently only 10 months in and the S&P 500 is down just 28%. History continues to suggest that more pain is ahead of us.”
Beyond stocks, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was mercifully motionless into the new week, so far avoiding another attack on twenty-year highs seen earlier.
Echoing Il Capo of Crypto’s theory, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, hinted that it could be this week or next that “some relief” enters for risk assets more broadly.
“A crucial area for Bitcoin, as it's still hovering in the range for more than a month,” he summarized on the day:
“It needs to break $19.4-19.6K clearly. If that happens, volatility can finally kick in. Given the structure of the $DXY and the Yields, I expect this to occur in 1-2 weeks.”
Further out, the picture for Bitcoin becomes murkier, and those divining bearish scenarios from current chart data are busy channeling comparisons to the 2018 bear market bottom.
Among them is popular analyst Matthew Hyland, who even in his characteristic bullish market takes has little to celebrate when it comes to the next few months’ BTC price action.
In a tweet from this weekend, Hyland flagged Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) repeating behavior seen in the build-up to the 2018 floor.
An accompanying chart clearly demonstrated familiar bear market forces in play, adding to suspicions that Q4 2022 could closely mirror the scenes from four years ago.
Trading account Stockmoney Lizards confirmed that it “100% agreed” with the idea, which uses the 3-day chart.
The 2018 RSI breakout structure involved a dive from $5,500 to $3,100 for BTC/USD — or roughly 40%.
“Obviously, we’re still waiting for this huge move to come,” Hyland added in a related video about the idea.
He additionally showed that the classic Bollinger Bands volatility indicator was still predicting an incoming storm, with narrowing bands demanding a breakout of volatility.
Taking a look at hodler behavior and it becomes apparent that the resolve of the average long-term holder (LTH) remains steadfast.
The latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms a five-year high in the number of Bitcoin either lost or out of circulation in cold storage.
The “hodled or lost coins” metric put the tally at 7,554,982.124 BTC — or 40% of the current supply — as of Oct. 17, meaning that more BTC is off the market than at any time since late 2017.
Likewise, distribution is also continuing an accelerating trend visible throughout 2022. The number of wallets with a balance of at least one whole Bitcoin is now at an all-time high of over 908,000.
While increasing overall through the latter half of 2021, the trend has gained noticeable momentum this year, Glassnode shows.
Analyzing lost coins as part of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode, meanwhile, concluded that the current bear market has yet to match others in terms of intensity when it comes to hodlers.
“Network profitability has not quite hit the same level of severe financial pain as past cycles, however adjustment for lost and long HODLed coins can explain a reasonable portion of this divergence,” it explained last week.
Nonetheless, when it comes to those used to hodling through bear markets, it appears that there’s little appetite for capitulation from current price levels.
There seems to be no shaking the fear when it comes to crypto market sentiment.
Related: ‘No emotion’ — Bitcoin metric gives $35K as next BTC price macro low
In a sign which has captured the industry this year, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has now had sentiment in its “fear” or “extreme fear” for two months straight.
Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to compute a normalized score for market sentiment, and 2022 has delivered results unlike most years.
Earlier, the Index saw its longest-ever stint in “extreme fear,” a feat which is currently one month away from repeating.
As of Oct. 17, the Index measured 20/100 — around 10 points higher than classic bear market bottoms but a full 14 points higher than this year’s low.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Strong correlation with Bitcoin and traditional markets continue to pull Axie Infinity price lower.
Axie Infinity (AXS) price dropped sharply on June 1, suggesting that its supersonic gains in the last two days might have been a part of a bear market rally.
The AXS/USD pair soared 54% week-to-date to over $28 on May 31, its highest level in three weeks. But Axie Infinity price failed to hold the gains, correcting by more than 21% to $22 while raising the possibility of more downside to come.
Trading behavior witnessed in the last 24 hours supported the downside outlook, with AXS/USD trading volume spiking during the selloff on May 31.
Axie Infinity's continued exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) and traditional stock markets was also instrumental in pushing its prices lower on June 1.
Notably, AXS's correction in the said period coincided with Bitcoin's move lower from around $32,250 to below $31,500 and with U.S. stocks resuming their downward trajectory after the Memorial Day holiday close on May 30.
Additionally, AXS's price correction began near a confluence of technical resistances, containing a support-turned-resistance aroun the $27-29 region and the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) around $29.
If the pullback continues, AXS risks retesting its previous support line near $18.40, down about 20% from today's price. Simultaneously, the persistent positive correlation with Bitcoin and stock markets could mean additional price declines below the $18.40-level.
"There's no V-shaped bottom here," argues Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird, noting that the factors that led to the decline across the risk assets in 2022— primarily the interest rate hikes—are going to stay the same in the coming quarters.
Related: Bitcoin’s recent gains have traders calling a bottom, but various metrics remain bearish
Meanwhile, independent market analyst PostyXBT believes that AXS must close above $40 to validate a long-term bullish rebound. Until then, the AXS/USD pair remains at risk of more downside to come.
"Play the relief bounces but don't overstay your welcome," PostyXBT told his 79,200 social media followers.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
A crypto analyst who called Bitcoin’s meltdown below $30,000 is issuing a fresh warning to traders, and says today’s market rally is likely a bull trap. The pseudonymous analyst known as Crypto Capo tells his 321,000 Twitter subscribers that he still expects sizable price drops for altcoins and BTC in the short term. pic.twitter.com/dV7lzFSUba — […]
The post Trader Who Nailed Bitcoin Meltdown Unveils Fresh Warning for Crypto Traders appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
