stock-to-flow

Someone is buying "a lot" of Bitcoin this week as stock-to-flow deflection reaches a level which traditionally sparks a serious price surge.

Bitcoin (BTC) is due for a fresh price surge if one classic price model repeats historical behavior — and buyers are still supporting it.

In a tweet on Aug. 3, analyst William Clemente noted that BTC/USD has reached a bullish springboard zone on the stock-to-flow model.

Analyst "likes odds" of stock-to-flow induced bull trigger

Despite lingering far below stock-to-flow projections on a day-to-day basis, Bitcoin could now use that seemingly bearish signal to its advantage.

Stock-to-flow deflection — Bitcoin's price relative to the model's estimate — is now so wide that it has only been matched five times in Bitcoin's history.

On each previous occasion, after reaching this lower deflection boundary, Bitcoin has "gone on an absolute tear" afterward.

"I like my odds," Clemente added in comments on an accompanying chart. 

As Cointelegraph reported, stock-to-flow creator PlanB, while worried about the recent BTC price dip, has stuck by his creation in the face of naysayers, predicting a minimum end-of-year price of $135,000. This, he has said, would be a "worst-case scenario."

OTC buyers suspected as BTC transfers spike

Meanwhile, large-volume investor activity could already be helping suck up the "flow" component of the stock-to-flow bull case.

Related: Betting on tax bill FUD: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

According to data from on-chain analytics service CryptoQuant, an unidentified market force is buying "a lot" of BTC — but not via exchanges.

"If big names announce their buying, bears could be in a trouble. I'm not sure about short-term price moving tho," CEO Ki Young Ju noted on Twitter.

The phenomenon has already been caught by analysts, who nonetheless have urged caution with trading at current price levels as BTC/USD attempts to consolidate.

"I am a Bitcoin buyer above 40k or below 36k," popular Twitter trader CanteringClark summarized Tuesday.

"Right here we have some long leverage accumulating."

Bitcoin would "surprise" the stock-to-flow creator if it fails to return to its forecast trajectory, with three years still to go until crunch time.

Bitcoin (BTC) can still hit an average price of $288,000 in the next three years, confident analyst PlanB has said after BTC/USD shed 7% on June 12.

In a tweet on Saturday, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models cast aside doubts over the Bitcoin bull run continuing.

PlanB: Business as usual for BTC

Alongside a chart describing Bitcoin as "going for gold," PlanB was characteristically cool about Bitcoin's recent progress despite a failure to break out above $40,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, concerns from traders and external sources alike have been mounting over the past week, these centering on a possible deeper BTC price correction.

"$288K still in play," PlanB retorted.

"It would really surprise me if bitcoin would not touch the black S2FX model line this phase. Regardless of current volatility, yellow green and blue dots will be (much) higher than red orange dots."

Such "surprise" would provide a serious test for the model, which has so far charted Bitcoin's growth with unique precision.

The $288,000 price tag refers to an average value called for by the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) iteration, while a previous version requires a more modest $100,000 average. Both are based on the current halving cycle, a four-year period between block subsidy halvings due to end in April 2024.

Earlier, Cointelegraph noted that spot price deviation from S2F readings has reached levels which normally see a rebound and a new all-time high.

In additional comments, PlanB noted that 2021 really did fit with behavior from other all-time high years — 2013 and 2017 — further quashing suggestions that Bitcoin is facing serious problems.

"Deviation is not much different from 2013 (S2F ~10) or 2017 (S2F ~25), just the usual inertia after a halving," he told Twitter users.

Bitcoin has a "bullish ace up its sleeve"

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has added to the upbeat mood over the power of the halvings.

Related: Bitcoin price gains 6% as Bloomberg analyst favors $40K over $20K next

On Saturday, he described Bitcoin's declining supply as a "bullish ace" for the largest cryptocurrency which can naturally boost price.

"Bitcoin $100,000 Has Bullish Ace Up Its Sleeve: Declining Supply — This year follows a cut in Bitcoin supply, making the price more likely to appreciate if past patterns hold," he summarized.

His bullishness comes as Taproot, described as the most important Bitcoin network upgrade in four years, is locked in for activation by nodes.

Due in November, Taproot provides a host of improvements which will, among other things, make it cheaper to use some key features such as multisignature transactions.