After Accurately Forecasting 2022 Collapse, Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya Says Smart Money Is Buying As Psychological Turning Point Arrives

October 17, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Latest CPI Data Shows Red-Hot Inflation Continues to Thrive in the US, Consumer Prices Jumped 8.2% in September

October 13, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Report: The Oldest Bank in America, BNY Mellon Can Now Custody Bitcoin and Ethereum

October 11, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Next few weeks are ‘critical’ for stock market and Bitcoin, analyst says

October 2, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Alessio Rastani, a cryptocurrency analyst and trader, shares his outlook on crypto, stocks and the forex market for the next weeks.

The stock market’s movements in the next few weeks will be critical for determining whether we are heading towards a short-term recession or a long term-one, according to forex trader and crypto analyst Alessio Rastani.

During the October-December 2022 period, the analyst expects to see the S&P rallying. "If that bounces or rally fails and drops back down again, then very likely, we're entering a long-term recession and something very close to similar to 2008", said Rastani in the latest Cointelegraph interview.

According to the analyst, such a recession could last until 2024 and would inevitably negatively impact the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

Talking about the latest Pound sterling crisis, Rastani opined that its principal cause is the rally of the U.S. dollar, which is putting pressure on most other fiat currencies, including the yen and the euro. However, in Rastani's view, the U.S. dollar is approaching the top.

"Once we see a clean break, a sustained break of 111.5 and 110 levels on the dollar index, then I think the top is in for the dollar. And then I'm looking for a multi-month decline in the dollar back to 104 to the 100 level on the dollar index," he explained.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

Pro traders don’t expect Bitcoin to break and hold $20,000 anytime soon

September 29, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Pro traders don’t expect Bitcoin to break and hold ,000 anytime soon

bitcoin crash

Bears have controlled BTC price by forcing 111 daily closes below $25,000 and derivatives data shows a reversal of this trend is highly unlikely.

One hundred and eleven days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) posted a close above $25,000 and this led some investors to feel less sure that the asset had found a confirmed bottom. At the moment, global financial markets remain uneasy due to the increased tension in Ukraine after this week’s Nord Stream gas pipeline incident.

The Bank of England's emergency intervention in government bond markets on Sept. 28 also shed some light on how extremely fragile fund managers and financial institutions are right now. The movement marked a stark shift from the previous intention to tighten economies as inflationary pressures mounted.

Currently, the S&P 500 is on pace for a consecutive third negative quarter, a first since 2009. Additionally, Bank of America analysts downgraded Apple to neutral, due to the tech giant’s decision to scale back iPhone production due to "weaker consumer demand." Lastly, according to Fortune, the real estate market has shown its first signs of reversion after housing prices decreased in 77% of United States metropolitan areas.

Let's have a look at Bitcoin derivatives data to understand if the worsening global economy is having any impact on crypto investors.

Pro traders were not excited by the rally to $20,000

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets but they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The indicator should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. The chart above shows that derivatives traders have been neutral to bearish for the past 30 days while the Bitcoin futures premium remained below 2% the entire time.

More importantly, the metric did not improve after BTC rallied 21% between Sept. 7 and 13, similar to the failed $20,000 resistance test on Sept. 27. The data basically reflects professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below negative 12%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The 30-day delta skew has been above the 12% threshold since Sept. 21 and it's signaling that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. As a comparison, between Sept. 10 and 13, the associated risk was somewhat balanced, according to call (buy) and put (sell) options, indicating a neutral sentiment.

The small number of futures liquidations confirm traders’ lack of surprise

The futures and options metrics suggest that the Bitcoin price crash on Sept. 27 was more expected than not. This explains the low impact on liquidations. Despite the 9.2% correction from $20,300 to $18,500, a mere $22 million of futures contracts were forcefully liquidated. A similar price crash on Sept. 19 caused a total of $97 million in leverage futures liquidations.

From one side, there's a positive attitude since the 111-day long bear market was not enough to instill bearishness in Bitcoin investors according to the derivatives metrics. However, bears still have unused firepower, considering the futures premium stands near zero. Had traders been confident with a price decline, the indicator would have been in backwardation.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Former Goldman Executive Predicts Economic Collapse, Says He’s Loading Up on Crypto

September 28, 2022 The Daily Hodl

‘The bond market bubble has burst’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

September 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

A time tunnel to November 2020 opens on BTC price action as the U.S. dollar lays waste to currencies and equities alike.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week staring down a wild macro environment after sealing its lowest weekly close in nearly two years.

As risk assets across the global economy take a hammering and the U.S. dollar surges, the largest cryptocurrency is on a limp footing.

September, having started out on bulls’ side, is now living up to its informal crypto market nickname — “Septembear” — and BTC/USD is currently down 6.2% since the start of the month.

The bad news keeps coming for hodlers, who are clinging to dormant coins in increasing numbers as the dollar runs rampant and mainstream appetite to diversify into riskier plays continues to evaporate.

With macro set to remain the key focus for everyone this week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for BTC price action.

In economic conditions that rival any major period of historical upheaval seen in the past century or more, here are some factors to take into account when assessing where Bitcoin could head next.

Weekly close sends BTC/USD back to November 2020

While not matching the previous week’s losses (3.1% versus 11%), the past seven days nonetheless managed to spark Bitcoin’s lowest weekly close since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

As the downside keeps coming, Bitcoin has thus turned back the clock to before the breakout, which took it beyond its prior halving cycle’s all-time high.

*BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

The sense of deja vu is unwelcome to the average hodler — the vast majority buying and cold storing over the past two years is now underwater.

“$BTC just made the lowest weekly close in this zone,” popular Twitter analyst SB Investments summarized after the close.

“Looks bearish with stocks looking to break support as well. But on the other side this is what everyone expects.”

Whether the markets could pull a surprise “max pain” move to the upside, liquidating short bias, is a key alternative argument for Bitcoiners. For popular trader Omz, the weekly close price of $18,800 even represents a convincing local bottom.

The RSI divergence has not gone unnoticed elsewhere, with trader JACKIS flagging its arrival last week.

“We only got two touches of the oversold territory in the past & they have always marked the exact bottom as well,” he tweeted at the time.

Fellow trading account IncomeSharks also maintained that a reversal could accompany the U.S. midterm elections in early November, but stopped short of saying that the bottom was in.

“Elevator down, stairs up,” it commented on the 4-hour chart on the day.

“Keep on building double bottoms and new supports, Midterm Rally remains on the table. Break this structure, remove these targets, and find a new bottom.”

*BTC/USD 4-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Dollar wrecking ball costs stocks, fiat

Monday has barely started and the turmoil that accompanied last week is already back with a vengeance on macro markets.

An unstoppable U.S. dollar is laying waste to key trading partner currencies, with the Bitcoin pound sterling making headlines on the day as it plunges 5% to come within a few percentage points of USD parity — its lowest levels against the greenback ever.

GBP/USD would follow the euro becoming worth less than $1, while the misery forced Japanese authorities to prop up the yen exchange rate artificially last week.

*GBP/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

EUR/USD briefly fell below $0.96 before a modest rebound, while USD/JPY remains near its highest since the 1990s despite Japan’s intervention.

At the same time, alarm bells are sounding for global bonds, which have fallen back to 2020 levels. Markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz warned alongside Bloomberg data:

“Looks like the bond market bubble has burst. The value of global bonds has plunged by another $1.2tn this week, bringing the total loss from ATH to $12.2tn.”

Stocks are set to fare no better, with futures down on the day prior to the Wall Street open. Brent crude oil fell below $85 per barrel for the first time since the start of 2022.

“Global bonds are collapsing in their fiat currencies, which are collapsing against the dollar, which is fast losing purchasing power,” Saifedean Ammous, author of the popular books, “The Bitcoin Standard” and “The Fiat Standard,” reacted.

“It will be months & years before the average fiat user realizes just how much they're getting ruined financially. The ‘new normal’ is poverty.”

With crypto still highly correlated with stocks and inversely correlated against dollar strength, the outlook for Bitcoin is thus less than positive as the status quo looks set to remain.

Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due this week, expected to show inflation still increasing, while the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) print should conversely continue the U.S. downtrend which began in July.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) meanwhile shows no sign of reversing, now at its highest since May 2002.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-month candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Hodlers in classic bear market mode

Amid such mayhem, it comes as no surprise that Bitcoin hodlers’ conviction is increasing and long-term investors refuse to sell.

Stubborn hodling is a hallmark of Bitcoin bear markets, and the latest data shows that that mindset is firmly back this year.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s so-called Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric is setting new lows.

CDD refers to how many dormant days are erased when BTC leaves its host wallet after a given period. When CDD is high, it suggests that more long-term stored coins are now on the move.

“The total volume of Bitcoin coin-days destroyed in the last 90-days has, effectively, reached an all-time-low,” Glassnode commented.

“This indicates that coins which have been HODLed for several months to years are the most dormant they have ever been.”

*Bitcoin 90-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

The news follows weeks of various hodl-focused metrics showing a commitment to keep the BTC supply under lock and key for better days.

Glassnode meanwhile additionally noted the increasing prevalence of coins hodled for at least three months as a proportion of the USD value of the BTC supply.

“Bitcoin HODLers appear to be steadfast and unwavering in their conviction,” it agreed.

An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric — a depiction of the supply broken down by coin dormancy.

*Bitcoin HODL Waves annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter*

Whales still dictate support and resistance

While old hands walk away from the “sell” button, Bitcoin’s largest-volume investors are on the radar of analysts when it comes to spot price moves.

The current trading range represents a zone of interest due to the extent of trading activity involving whale money in the past.

Large buys lend additional weight to a specific support price while the same is true of resistance levels, and according to on-chain monitoring resource Whalemap, BTC/USD is currently stuck between the two.

“Holding 19k-18k is key for $BTC,” the Whalemap team summarized late last week.

An accompanying chart showed whale resistance levels capping relief for Bitcoin and limiting it to within the $20,000 zone.

*Bitcoin whale resistance annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ Twitter*

Nonetheless, separate figures from research firm Santiment confirm that whales’ BTC exposure overall has fallen to two-year lows.

*Bitcoin whale ownership annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter*

"Extreme fear" enters second week

In a familiar return to 2022 norms, crypto market sentiment has now been in "extreme fear" mode for more than a week.

As per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures aggregate crypto market sentiment, the average investor could not feel much more uneasy about the outlook.

As of Sep. 26, Fear & Greed recorded a score of 21/100, with 25/100 the boundary for "extreme fear.

Cold feet is nothing new to the market this year, which saw its longest-ever stint in "extreme fear" at over two months.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me*

A potential silver lining could lie in social media interest, which saw a rebound over the weekend, Santiment noted.

"Among crypto's top 100 assets, $BTC is the topic in 26%+ of discussions for the first time since mid-July," it revealed in part of Twitter comments this week.

"Our backtesting shows 20%+ dedicated to Bitcoin is a positive for the sector."

*Bitcoin social dominance annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ Twitter*

Roth IRAs: The ideal long-term cryptocurrency investment?

September 20, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Considering investing in cryptocurrencies for the long run? Roth IRAs and other tax advantages investment vehicles are worth considering.

As the cryptocurrency market matures, more governments throughout the world introduce legislation to tax proceeds from crypto-related activities, with traders often triggering taxable events that can lead to future complications.

Avoiding paying taxes is illegal, but there are legal ways to dodge triggering taxable events while hodling onto one’s cryptocurrency holdings: Roth IRAs. These are individual retirement accounts (IRAs) with a special type of tax-advantaged system.

Using IRAs to avoid triggering taxable events with cryptocurrency investments is a strategy that has been considered for some time, with North American mining and hosting firm Compass Mining offering a solution for BTC users to mine directly to their IRAs last year.

Before diving deeper, it’s important to point out that Roth IRAs are only available in the United States, although other countries often have their own form of tax-advantaged investment vehicles. Often, stocks with significant exposure to Bitcoin — such as MicroStrategy — have to be used as a proxy for some of these vehicles.

What are Roth IRAs?

A Roth IRA is a type of individual retirement account to which investors contribute after-tax earnings. What makes Roth IRAs stand out is that what investors place in these savings accounts can grow tax-free and be withdrawn without any other taxes being owed after they’re aged 59 ½, if the account has been open for at least five years.

Essentially, a Roth IRA considers that since taxes have been paid on the funds being contributed into the account, investors do not need to pay any further tax as long as they meet the specific conditions outlined above.

Roth IRAs can be funded in various ways beyond regular contributions, which have to be made in cash. Assets permitted into Roth IRA accounts include stocks, exchange-traded funds, money market funds, bonds, mutual funds and cryptocurrencies.

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) does not allow for direct cryptocurrency contributions into these accounts, but these are various Bitcoin IRA solutions that are designed for investors to save cryptocurrencies in these accounts. It’s worth pointing out that yearly contributions to Roth IRAs are limited based on IRS specifications and that investors can keep Roth IRAs as long as they please, as there are no required minimum distributions.

Is it a good idea to add crypto to a Roth IRA?

Cryptocurrencies are known for being extremely volatile, which means they aren’t for every investor out there. More conservative investors will likely be happier holding bonds, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, while investors with a larger risk appetite may consider allocating to crypto.

The growth potential of cryptocurrency holdings in a portfolio is enough to lure in investors who believe cryptocurrencies will keep on growing in popularity as the infrastructure around them boosts accessibility and new crypto-related products and services are created. This growth potential, it’s worth pointing out, comes with heightened risk.

As tax-free withdrawals from Roth IRAs require accounts to be at least five years old, cryptocurrency investors looking to take advantage of them should always be prepared to hold onto their funds for a long time.

Chris Kline, co-founder of cryptocurrency IRA platform Bitcoin IRA, told Cointelegraph that there are no tax benefits on contributions to Roth IRA accounts, but there are tax benefits on distributions:

“If you have a longer time horizon in Bitcoin and crypto, a Roth IRA could be an appealing choice for those looking to take advantage of the long-term promise digital assets offer.”

To Kline, cryptocurrencies are going to “disrupt the very fabric of our everyday lives in ways like the internet disrupted communication and email disrupted the post office.” The co-founder of Bitcoin IRA added that while real estate and gold were premier examples of diversification in the past, crypto has “asserted itself as an alternative in the modern economy.”

Recent: The Metaverse is becoming a platform to unite fashion communities

Kline added that cryptocurrencies can offer an “alternative path forward for people of all ages” and that there’s been a surge in interest in investing in crypto assets for diversification.

Kunal Sawhney, CEO of equity research firm Kalkine Group, seems to disagree with Kline’s approach. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Sawhney said that if a person has “spent time and labour to earn money, it should ideally not go into extremely risky assets like cryptocurrencies.”

Otherwise, he added, it “defeats the idea of investing for retirement.” Sawhney cautioned that cryptocurrencies aren’t just Bitcoin (BTC) and that betting on these increases the risk that investors fall prey to Ponzi schemes.

As an investment category, he said, cryptocurrencies “might not be so bad” as these assets may become the “biggest contributor to the overall amount in the Roth IRA when the contributor retires and plans to withdraw.” Once again, their potential outsized performance is weighed against their risk.

For long-term investors expecting these outsized returns, placing cryptocurrencies in a Roth IRA lets them realize their capital gains without getting taxed, although they’ll have to stomach the ups and downs for a while.

Portfolio diversification

The extreme volatility of cryptocurrencies makes them a not-so-easy investment when talking about retirement, with the jury being out on whether including cryptocurrencies in a 401(k) retirement plan is sound financial planning or gambling with the future.

To Sawhney, investors need to have a pre-determined strategy for their Roth IRA. The CEO noted that a 60/40 portfolio, with greater exposure to stocks than to bonds, was “long considered balanced and financially rewarding” but suggested cryptocurrencies are changing things:

“Now that there is an option available to hold relatively the most volatile asset, cryptocurrency, a new strategy, say 50/40/10, might be considered. Here 10% could go to the new asset class comprising cryptos. Investors should have the option to change the allocation share per their risk appetite.”

Recent: Does the Ethereum Merge offer a new destination for institutional investors?

Due diligence, Sawhney concluded, is crucial as Roth IRAs are often “viewed as one of the best investment vehicles for young and low-income earners.”

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Kevin Maloney, interim CEO at crypto retirement account provider iTrustCapital, said that volatility is actually “one of the main reasons why many investors prefer using a Roth IRA or any other type of IRA to invest in crypto.” He added that even day-traders could benefit:

“For those who want to ‘day-trade’ due to the volatility of crypto, an IRA still represents a solid option because they won’t be paying yearly taxes on their gains so long as they aren’t taking distributions.”

Whether investors are looking to add cryptocurrencies to their Roth IRA accounts, it’s important note that crypto assets are only available for these accounts through custodians, which may charge hefty trading fees.

It’s up to every investor to analyze what type of investment vehicle best suits their situation and risk appetite. Roth IRAs may be extremely beneficial for long-term investors, as, since 2014, the IRS has taxed cryptocurrencies as property, and capital gains taxes can be owed on depreciated assets.

The views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bank of America Market Strategist Says ‘Summer Rally Is Over’ as Crypto and Stocks Slide Ahead of Fed Rate Hike This Week

September 19, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin price threatens $19.6K as Ray Dalio predicts 30% stocks crash

September 16, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The aftermath of the Ethereum Merge gives no respite to crypto bulls, who face continued market pressure as stocks also trend down.

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to violate local lows on Sep. 16 as the latest cross-crypto downtrend intensified.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

No relief for BTC bulls post Merge

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $19,600 at the time of writing, with buyer support just avoiding a further drop.

The level had remained in place as an intraday floor as the Ethereum (ETH) Merge concluded, only to spark a sell-off, which took ETH/BTC toward three-week lows.

*ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView*

Amid the gloomy mood, traders and analysts showed little inclination to reassess their market outlooks.

“I feel confident with the scenario of quick pump to 23k on BTC and 1800 on ETH and big dump from there,” Il Capo of Crypto wrote, reiterating a long-held theory.

“Time will tell.”

Warning that the situation “doesn’t look good,” meanwhile, popular account CryptoBullet demanded a reclaim of the 100-period moving average (MA) to flip bullish on the 4-hour chart.

Now this doesn't look good

Same condition - reclaim the MA100 and I’ll be bullish pic.twitter.com/sbogDrqkcE
— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) September 16, 2022

Dalio: Fed rate hikes will see stocks tumble

After a further day of losses on United States equities, meanwhile, investor Ray Dalio drew some fresh bearish conclusions about what the current inflationary climate would mean for the markets.

In his latest blog post published on Sep. 13, Dalio predicted the combined damage for stocks would cost them 30% of their current valuation.

“The rise in interest rates will have two types of negative effects on asset prices: 1) the present value discount rate and 2) the decline in incomes produced by assets because of the weaker economy. We have to look at both,” he explained.

“What are your estimates for these? I estimate that a rise in rates from where they are to about 4.5 percent will produce about a 20 percent negative impact on equity prices (on average, though greater for longer duration assets and less for shorter duration ones) based on the present value discount effect and about a 10 percent negative impact from declining incomes.”

That would spell danger across highly-correlated crypto markets, with Bitcoin thus taking aim at levels closer to $10,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, that number is currently no stranger to long-term forecasters’ radar.

The Federal Reserve is tipped to enact a further 75-basis-point interest rate hike at next week's meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), with some market participants even expecting 100 basis points, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool.

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