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Crypto-related stocks jump in positive reaction to executive order

Crypto and blockchain-related companies have enjoyed a surge in prices after the market received Joe Biden’s executive order with open arms.

The stock prices of crypto-related companies have jumped as the broader market reacted positively to President Joe Biden’s long-awaited executive order requiring US federal agencies to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, as well as exploring a future digital dollar.

Coinbase (COIN) surged, up 10.5% at market close, while shares in Bitcoin-evangelist Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) posted a 6.4% gain, according to TradingView.

Blockchain-related exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) also enjoyed the markets’ renewed confidence in crypto, with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) gaining 10% and Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF) closing up 10.3%.

Cryptocurrency mining companies enjoyed the largest gains with Riot Blockchain Inc. (RIOT) shares up 11.2% and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (MARA) rose 13.5% with Jefferies (JEF) analyst Jonathan Peterson, reportedly restoring his buy rating for MARA in a note to clients and stating that crypto miners are likely to gain now that the U.S Government is “more formally recognizing, engaging with and seemingly supporting” the digital asset industry.

While 10% swings are common in crypto, these are unusually volatile moves on traditional markets. And despite the past day's increase, Coinbase is still down nearly 48% from it’s direct listing price in Apr. last year, while RIOT is in an even worse position, currently down 76% from it’s most recent high in Feb. 2021.

Bitcoin (BTC) itself jumped 9% after details concerning the executive order leaked last night, before settling back to the current 5% gain.

Aside from the immediate positive price action, the executive order was considered by most investors to be if not a net positive for the crypto industry, at least a lot less bad than had been feared. President Biden called the rise of digital assets, “an opportunity to reinforce American leadership in the global financial system and at the technological frontier”.

The order didn’t explicitly state what sort of regulatory measures could be expected, butthe overall sentiment from the US Federal government seemed constructive — meaning that the executive order will potentially work to expand the adoption of virtual currencies within the U.S. financial system.

This was further supported by the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who said in a statement that legislation will aid consumers and businesses.

"President Biden’s historic executive order calls for a coordinated and comprehensive approach to digital asset policy," Yellen said. "This approach will support responsible innovation that could result in substantial benefits for the nation, consumers and businesses."

Minnesota Congressman, Tom Emmer provided an insightful breakdown of the areas that the executive order glossed over, warning his 48,000 Twitter followers that they have no reason to expect that the US government will prioritize policies for open, permissionless or private technology.

Related: Crypto could bypass President Biden's 'devastating' sanctions on Russian banks and elites: Report

He added however the one of the most promising parts of the executive order was that it "doesn’t ask the SEC to weigh in. SEC Chair Gensler has spent the past year intimidating crypto innovators and entrepreneurs with his unproductive regulation by public statement and enforcement action. His input is not critical."

Gensler weighed in on the news anyway, deciding to post his support for Biden’s regulatory efforts on Twitter.

Gensler’s tweet was received with criticism from some in the cryptocurrency community on Twitter, given his oft expressed skepticism for the digital asset industry.

Ryan Selkis, the CEO of Messario Crypto, put Gensler directly in the crosshairs, claiming that Gensler’s goals have nothing to do with investor protection.

Zooming out, the overall share market rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 posting a 2.5% gain despite continued geopolitical tension in Eastern Europe.

US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

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US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

Bitcoin stuck under $40K, but BTC price hits another all-time high vs. Russian ruble

There are few winners among Bitcoin hodlers this week, as stocks get squashed while commodities run wild.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from one-week lows on March 8 after a lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks sent markets tumbling.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Commodities "trading like meme stocks"

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD bouncing at $37,170 on Bitstamp after Monday’s Wall Street open.

Overnight progress maintained support, with the pair trading at around $38,500 at the time of writing.

Crypto and stocks had reacted badly to the third round of negotiations to end hostilities between Russia and Ukraine ending in a lack of consensus.

“There are small positive subductions in improving the logistics of humanitarian corridors... Intensive consultations have continued on the basic political block of the regulations, along with a ceasefire and security guarantees,” negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak nonetheless tweeted as part of feedback following conclusion of the talks.

The news was not enough to provide any form of hope, however — U.S. stocks trended down throughout the session, the S&P 500 ending Monday with 2.95% losses.

Commodities, meanwhile, saw spikes which were often unprecedented, such as nickel jumping past $100,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange.

At the same time, pain continued for Russia, with only ruble-exposed investors hedging in BTC seeing some form of relief. On Monday evening, BTC/RUB hit new all-time highs of just over 5 million on Binance.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingView

Amid the mayhem, and despite Bitcoin’s lackluster price reaction as a safe haven paradoxically correlated with stocks, there were nonetheless votes of confidence from diehard supporters.

“The world is watching trust get repriced in real time,” Marty Bent, founder of Bitcoin media company TFTC summarized.

“When the dust settles bitcoin will be the biggest benefactor bc the masses will realize a distributed system that cannot be controlled by a single person, government, corporation or coalition is the only thing they can trust.”

Regulatory concerns from the U.S. meanwhile also contributed to the market's cold feet.

$40,000 becomes short-term target

For low timeframe trades, Bitcoin nonetheless looked fairly unappealing for many, with upside potential decidedly limited.

Related: 3 reasons why Bitcoin can rally back to $60K despite erasing last week's gains

For popular traders Anbessa and Crypto Ed, $40,000 remained an obvious target for a bullish divergence.

“Target can be defined better when that correction is finished, but for now sticking with ~40k,” Crypto Ed added.

As Cointelegraph reported, upcoming events in the U.S., notably consumer price index (CPI) data due Thursday and a decision on interest rate hikes next week, were apt to disrupt sentiment in the short term.

US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

Rate hikes, CPI and war in Europe — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

A grim cocktail of macro triggers converges on Bitcoin, with risk assets looking at a “rough” few days coming up, analysts warn.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in the shadow of a deepening geopolitical nightmare unfolding in Ukraine.

As retaliation for the Ukraine invasion and the macroeconomic consequences grow, crypto by and large is struggling to keep up.

A curious paradox has presented itself this month. Despite investors and those directly impacted by the war assumedly looking for a safe haven, that has broadly not been Bitcoin or even stablecoins.

Instead, stocks, which have taken a hit thanks to sanctions and their consequences, now form a major guide for how BTC/USD performs.

As such, the trend for Bitcoin remains down, all within the same familiar macro range which has characterized all of 2022.

What could switch things up? Cointelegraph takes a look at a handful of factors worth keeping an eye on as the unprecedented European conflict plays out.

Macro forces signal volatile, “rough” week ahead

Historical precedent aside, it has become clear that the stock market does not “like” the current European hostilities.

Losses mounted last week, with global equities in total shedding $2.9 trillion of value. Add to that a warning that indices still seem expensive for the current environment and the midterm picture starts to look decidedly unappetizing.

It is not just what has already taken place, which is rocking the boat, but new sanctions against Russia are on the table, among them some serious issues that would only be felt on longer timeframes, should they come to fruition.

Among them is a ban on Russian oil imports, a move set to upend the global status quo and trigger a seismic shift in how the economy fuels itself.

“If this happened. I would think there’d be a high probability of stocks limiting down immediately off the news,” popular trader and analyst Pentoshi reacted to news of the idea that dropped over the weekend.

Pentoshi had already sounded the alarm for stocks going forward, raising the concept of a Wall Street Crash-type event triggering a modern-day counterpart of the Great Depression.

While an extreme scenario, there is nonetheless little to be bullish about while the conflict remains unresolved and the fallout worsens.

For Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Bitcoin’s intraday performance meant that the coming week should indeed be “rough” for risk assets.

Comparing BTC/USD to the Nasdaq, in particular, this year, McGlone did not have the opinion that the only way is down.

“Bitcoin faces deflationary forces after 2021 excesses, but the crypto shows divergent strength,” part of Twitter comments read Friday.

“With 2002 losses less than half those for the Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin may be maturing toward global digital collateral.”

CME gap sets up $40,000 rematch

Should that be the case, Bitcoin hodlers are in for a choppy ride in the coming days.

Sensitive stocks combined with rocketing commodities prices — an atmosphere of stagflation in the making, some say — hardly provide fertile ground for bullish sentiment.

Overnight on Sunday, BTC/USD wicked down to $37,592 on Bitstamp, marking its lowest levels since late February and wholly erasing its subsequent gains.

Even more frustrating is that the entire move was a repeat of a previous one, cementing the current price range as more definitive support and resistance.

A look at the daily chart from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows just how persistent the range has been — in order to exit it, a breakout above the yearly open at $46,200 is needed.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

For trader Matthew Hyland, however, the immediate picture suggests that such a move is unlikely.

“Bitcoin has fallen below the crucial support zone,” he warned on Monday, showing the various price levels he argues figure as support and resistance in the range.

The latest of those to go — around $39,600 — happens to coincide with Friday’s closing price on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.

Given Bitcoin’s propensity to return to Friday close levels the following week, the area just below $40,000 could thus form a focus on Monday, laying the foundations for a support/resistance flip should the bulls gain momentum.

“Great choppy movements of Bitcoin, but in the end it will come back to the price of the CME close of Friday evening,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized.

In a subsequent tweet, van de Poppe joined McGlone in predicting a “volatile” week ahead.

Traders brace for CPI, rate hike double whammy

Where would the current narrative be without the topic of inflation?

What began as a “temporary” phenomenon has mushroomed into a cornerstone feature of the economic landscape this year — something many crypto industry participants predicted in advance.

The Federal Reserve is now stuck with it and has been criticized for failing to act quickly enough.

Thus, despite the Russia fallout, lawmakers are eyeing a rate hike this month and a decision will come on March 16. Prior to that, tension for Bitcoin may increase as last-minute bets keep traders guessing on the outcome for risk assets.

Should a 25 basis point hike be enough to maintain the status quo for Bitcoin, it may already have come too late.

Prior to the Fed announcement, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the United States is due to hit. Any major deviations from the forecast could upend the delicate balance.

Already at 40-year highs, CPI became infamous last month as Bitcoin put in multiple fakeout moves in the hours after the monthly numbers were released.

Extreme, but not extreme enough?

A familiar face shows just how big a hit crypto sentiment has taken in recent days.

As BTC/USD fell from the top of its range, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell with it, right back into the “extreme fear” zone.

The bullishness in early March is clearly visible on the Index, which more than doubled its normalized sentiment score to reach 51/100 before proceeding to lose it all again and reach just 22/100.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to depict the crypto mood and currently suggests that there is room for further deterioration, as local market bottoms tend to be accompanied by a score of around 10/100.

“It‘s a short visioned market, meaning that the horizon is maybe a few days, and sentiment switches,” van de Poppe added about the current setup.

In a jibe at weak hands, popular trader Crypto Daan argued that even a collapse to $20,000 would not constitute a major trend violation on long enough timeframes for Bitcoin.

“A backtest to 20k, technically wouldn‘t be bad at all. Not nice for sentiment, but technically nice back test,” he tweeted Sunday.

Reserve Risk enters the green

How on edge are hodlers really?

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, XRP, NEAR, XMR, WAVES

As ever, there is a clear line to be drawn between long-term and short-term BTC investors, with the former still stubbornly riding out the comedown from all-time highs.

One key metric supporting the view that confidence in Bitcoin does not match the price is Reserve Risk.

Created in 2019, Reserve Risk pits sentiment against price in a way that shows when to invest in order to have a good chance of producing what on-chain analytics site LookIntoBitcoin calls “outsized” returns.

Currently, BTC/USD is heading back into the green “buy” zone, indicating that conditions favor long-term investors once more — high confidence and low price.

“It is now entering value btfd territory on macro timeframes as price trends down,” LookIntoBitcoin creator Philip Swift commented on the “very useful” Reserve Risk data.

Bitcoin Reserve Risk chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin

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US Treasury Yield Curve Highlights Recession Signals, Analyst Thinks Fallout Will Be ’10x Worse Than the Great Depression’

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Bitcoin heading to 36K, analysis says amid warning global stocks ‘look expensive’

A cataclysmic breakdown in global equities is not off the table for this year, with a "stagflationary shock" already in the making.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed lower into the weekly close on March 6 with geopolitical tensions and associated macro weakness firmly in focus.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Could 2022 bring a "Greater Depression"?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting its lowest levels in over a week Sunday after volatility returned overnight.

The pair was in the process of testing $38,000 support at the time of writing, with three-day losses approaching 12%.

Despite the "out of hours" trading environment, the trend was clearly down for the largest cryptocurrency, as the mood on global equities wobbled among analysts.

"Global equities have lost $2.9tn in mkt cap this week as war could trigger major stagflationary shock," markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz warned on the day.

"Economists cut their growth forecasts & raise inflation projections. Global stock mkts now worth $110tn, equal to 130% of global GDP, which looks expensive for current situation."

Should a bigger TradFi correction set in, an already shaky crypto market could fare just as badly, some argue — at least to begin with.

Popular trader and analyst Pentoshi even went as far as to forecast a repeat of the worldwide meltdown, which triggered the Great Depression 90 years ago.

Some established pundits, however, held a decidedly different stance. In its latest crypto market outlook report on March 4, Bloomberg Intelligence remained bullish on Bitcoin and Ether (ETH). 

"Most assets are subject to the ebbing tide in 2022, on the inevitable reversion of the highest inflation in four decades, but this year may mark another milestone for Bitcoin," it read.

"If risk assets don't decline and reduce some of the price pressure, inflation measures are more likely to remain buoyant, leaving few options for central banks but to raise rates more aggressively."

$36,000 support may step in for BTC

With trepidation still ruling the roost short term, the outlook for Bitcoin held few bullish cues, focusing on a continuation of the current trading range. 

Related: Bitcoin loses $40K as BTC price support levels give way to 1-week lows

"Bitcoin is at a critical level," Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, co-founders of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, summarized while introducing the latest edition of its "Uncharted" newsletter. 

"RSI is oversold and trending up. If the price fails to break above $40k, we go down to support. Support: $34-$36k Resistance: $43-$45k."
BTC/USD chart with RSI. Source: Negentropic/ Twitter

The accompanying graphic showed just how historically good value BTC/USD was at current prices and the correlation between such RSI lows and price reversals.

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US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

Bitcoin declines with US stocks as nuclear threat ripples through markets

BTC/USD loses over 10% in two days, hastened by concerns over Ukraine developments.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls saw no relief at the Wall Street open on March 4 as $40,000 support appeared on the horizon.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Trader: Markets "shaky" but BTC could bounce

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView revealed new March lows of $40,551 for BTC/USD on Bitstamp, taking two-day losses to 10.2%.

Fears over the security of Ukraine's nuclear infrastructure drove not just crypto but traditional markets lower on the day, with the S&P 500 following European indices to decline by 1.4%.

"Bitcoin correcting as tensions around Ukraine are increasing, and fear is increasing too as Gold is rushing upwards," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe explained in his latest Twitter update.

"Might be seeing a bounce, if we do, I'm looking at $43.1-43.5K as a potential resistance point. Overall shaky markets, altcoins dropping too."

Looking ahead, meanwhile, a highly cautious Pentoshi warned that the macro outlook looked bleak thanks to a combination of commodity inflation, reduced ability of central banks to tame it, and the existing damage done by responses to the Coronavirus over the past two years.

"You can already see other markets starting to show massive cracks in the foundation, Hong Kong has erased 100% of the post covid gains, and it appears European markets are next," he wrote in one of a series of tweets about the situation Thursday.

"I'm not sure how anyone can look at the past, and be bullish on the present."

Oil remained a case in point this week, with WTI reaching its highest levels in the past decade and Brent hitting $112 a barrel. Russian oil conversely struggled to find buyers despite being offered at a steep discount.

Price consolidation was "expected"

When it came to Bitcoin, however, not everyone was bearish.

Related: Bitcoin mining difficulty drops for the first time this year

Analyzing recent chart movements, popular account BTCfuel spied a potential rebound already in the making.

"Bitcoin looks like it's setting up a reversal structure," he commented alongside a chart showing two potential trajectories for BTC price action.

Others, including fellow Twitter account Kaleo, were equally unfazed.

"Consolidating in the 40.5K - 42K range above support as expected. Still expecting a bounce from this range," he wrote Friday.

US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

Bitcoin traders say $34K was the bottom, but data says it’s too early to tell

Bitcoin traders say the bottom is in, but it’s important to also consider BTC’s correlation to equities markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) price traded down 23% in the eight days following its failure to break the $45,000 resistance on Feb. 16. The $34,300 bottom on Feb. 24 happened right after the Russian-Ukraine conflict escalated, triggering a sharp sell-off in risk assets.

While Bitcoin reached its lowest level in 30 days, Asian stocks were also adjusting to the worsening conditions, a fact evidenced by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropping 3.5% and the Nikkei also reached a 15-month low.

Bitcoin/USD at FTX. Source: TradingView

The first question one needs to answer is whether cryptocurrencies are overreacting compared to other risk assets. Sure enough, Bitcoin's volatility is much higher than traditional markets, running at 62% per year.

As a comparison, the United States small and mid-cap stock market index Russell 2000 holds a 30% annualized volatility. Meanwhile, as measured by the MSCI China index, Chinese equities stand at 32%.

Bitcoin/USD (purple, left scale) vs. Hang Seng Index (blue) & Russell 2000 (orange)

There is a high correlation between Bitcoin, the Hang Seng stock market and the U.S. Russell 2000 Index. A possible explanation is the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening objectives. By reducing bond buybacks and threatening to increase the interest rates, the monetary authority has caused a "flight to safety" movement.

Despite the non-existent returns adjusted by the 7.5% inflation, investors often seek protection on cash U.S. dollar positions and Treasury ills. This is especially true during periods of extreme uncertainty.

Bitcoin futures traders are moderately bearish

To understand how professional traders are positioned, one should monitor Bitcoin derivatives. The Bitcoin futures' annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money for two to three months until the contract expiry.

Bitcoin 3-month futures premium. Source: Laevitas

Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while an annualized premium above 12% indicates bullishness. As shown above, the futures premium dropped below 5% on Feb. 9, displaying a lack of confidence from professional traders.

Although the current 2.5% represents the lowest level since July 20, this date marked a reversal from a 74-day price correction. In fact, a 71% rally followed that event, confirming the thesis that the futures premium is a backward-looking indicator.

Bitcoin/USD (blue) and 30-day correlation vs. Russell 2000 (purple). Source: TradingView

Notice how Bitcoin’s correlation versus the Russell 2000 Index was relatively high on July 20. However, that situation quickly reversed as BTC initiated its rally, independent from traditional markets.

The bottom could be in, but uncertainty could lead to further downside

Similar to the futures premium, the correlation metric uses historical data, so it should not be used to predict trend reversals. Investors, particularly professional fund managers, tend to avoid high volatile assets during turbulent markets.

Understanding market psychology is essential for avoiding unexpected price swings. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin remains considered a risky asset by market participants, these short-term corrections should be the norm rather than the exception.

Therefore, it makes sense to wait for further decoupling signs before predicting a Bitcoin bottom.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin

Coinbase made $2.2 billion in revenue from transaction fees in Q4

The largest crypto trading platform in the U.S. has beaten analysts’ expectations by 27% in its Q4 earnings despite a broader slump in the crypto market.

Coinbase’s Q4 financial report vastly exceeded market expectations Thursday, after the firm posted $2.5 billion in net revenue for the quarter, beating analyst predictions by 27%. 

FactSet consensus had forecasted Coinbase to generate approximately $1.9 billion in revenue for the period. Notably, the popular crypto exchange more than doubled transaction revenue from Q3 to Q4, generating 91% ($2.276 billion) of its total Q4 revenue from transactions alone.

Adding to investor confidence, the company’s total transaction revenue for 2021 was a whopping $6.8 billion. Despite the report posting $840 million in net income and showing substantial growth from 7.4 million monthly transacting users (MTU) in Q3 to 11.4 million in Q4, COIN share prices fell 4.7% in postmarket trading, now down a total of 30% year-to-date.

It is also worth noting that $213 million, just 9% of Q4 revenue, was generated by non-trading products coming from other sources like lending and staking.

The US-based crypto platform stated that it has recently witnessed a drop in crypto market volatility and asset prices when compared to the all-time-high conditions of Q4, owing partially to instability in global market conditions. Resultantly, the report stated that Coinbase expects to see a comparative decline in MTUs and subsequent transaction revenue in Q1 2022.

Despite a potentially sluggish Q1, Coinbase wrote to its investors that it plans for “aggressive” internal investment in 2022 while also ensuring that it is prepared for any potentially unsavory market conditions.

“In the event of a material decline in our business, below the ranges we have planned for, we may slow down our investments and would expect to manage our adjusted EBITDA losses to approximately $500 million on a full-year basis.”

Related: Who really created the Coinbase Superbowl ad? Armstrong called out on Twitter

Coinbase also pointed to the growth of Web3, NFTs, and DeFi as sources of future growth for the company, using the rapid increase in NFT sales last year as a point of reference.

The company also said that it plans to hire 6,000 employees in 2022 with a large focus on customer support and reliability, something that Coinbase has suffered for in the past.

Coinbase predicts that between $4.25 to $5.25 billion will be spent in 2022, with a large focus being placed on the technology and development teams.

US Supreme Court knocks back case over $4.4B Silk Road Bitcoin