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Will Solana price hold $180 after 30% drop in weekly DApp volumes?

Declining network activity and interest in memecoins put a dent in Solana price, but derivatives data suggest limited downside.

Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) failed to sustain levels above $200 after multiple rejections between Dec. 25 and Dec. 26. This movement aligned with the broader cryptocurrency market, which saw a 3.5% decline over two days ending Dec. 27. However, SOL underperformed with a 5.1% correction, raising concerns among traders about potential further price declines.

One key source of concern was Solana’s onchain network volumes, which dropped by 30% over seven days.

Blockchains ranked by 7-day DApps volumes, USD. Source: DefiLlama

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Ethereum liquid restaking TVL surges from $284M to $17B in 2024

While liquid restaking provides more utility for staked tokens, it also comes with its own risks, like the depegging and price volatility for derivative tokens.

Ethereum liquid restaking protocols saw their total value locked (TVL) increase by almost 6,000% in 2024, as the demand for staked asset utility increased this year. 

On Jan. 1, decentralized finance (DeFi) data aggregator DefiLlama showed that Ethereum’s liquid restaking TVL used to be around $284 million. After almost a year, the amount surged almost sixty times, reaching $17.26 billion on Dec. 15. 

Liquid restaking total value locked in Ethereum. Source: DefiLlama

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Ethereum layer-2 volumes rose by 70%— Will they eclipse Solana

A notable surge in activity puts analysts’ eyes back on Ethereum. Can the Ethereum network catch up to and surpass Solana?

The Ethereum network has long been criticized for high transaction fees, which often exceed $4. However, the exponential growth of layer-2 blockchains has created a sustainable solution for decentralized applications (DApps) that require higher scalability. This ecosystem saw a 70% increase in volumes over the past 30 days, but can it match Solana’s success?

Decentralized exchanges 30-day volumes, market share. Source: DefiLlama

While Solana may have surpassed Ethereum's base layer activity, it still falls short when considering Ethereum's layer-2 blockchains. Solana captured 35.4% of the decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes in November, up from 27.2% in October, according to DefiLlama data. In comparison, Ethereum and its layer-2 ecosystem accounted for 45.2% of the market share in November, down from 50.1% in October.

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Solana price recovers from sharp sell-off, is $300 SOL possible?

Solana’s onchain and derivatives data suggest that SOL could make a run back toward its all-time high in the short term. 

Solana's native token, SOL (SOL), has surged 8% since falling to $222 on Nov. 26. Despite this recovery, some investors remain skeptical, citing the sharp correction from its all-time high of $263.80 on Nov. 23 as a potential sign of a faltering bull run. However, onchain and derivatives data suggest that SOL still holds significant upside potential.

SOL/USD (blue) vs. altcoin market cap (purple). Source: TradingView /Cointelegraph

Investor frustration partly stems from SOL’s modest 1% gain between Nov. 20 and Nov. 27, during which the broader altcoin market capitalization climbed 12%. Several tokens outperformed significantly, with Stellar (XLM), Celestia (TIA), Fantom (FTM), Uniswap (UNI), and Polkadot (DOT) posting gains of 40% or more during the same period.

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Ethereum DApp volumes gain 38% in a month — Will ETH price follow?

Everything but ETH seems to be rallying, even though Ethereum’s DApp volumes are surging. What gives?

Ether (ETH) price has struggled to maintain levels above $3,200 between Sept. 13 and Sept. 19. However, onchain metrics have improved, particularly when compared to some of Ethereum’s direct competitors. Traders are now questioning how long it will take for Ether to resume its bull run, given its dominance in fees and network deposits.

Blockchains ranked by 30-day DApps volumes, USD. Source: DappRadar

No blockchain comes close to Ethereum's $149.9 billion in onchain volumes over the past 30 days. The second-largest competitor, BNB Chain (BNB), reached only $26.6 billion, 82% smaller despite offering much lower transaction fees. More importantly, Ethereum’s activity grew by 37.7% over the past month, while BNB Chain saw a 6% decline in volume.

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Solana rally follows Bitcoin price as SOL data points to traders’ $200 target

Solana gains alongside Bitcoin’s US election-related rally, and data hints that SOL price could hit $200. 

Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) opened the day with a 5.3% gain to trade slightly above $167. The move accompanied Bitcoin’s (BTC) US election day rally to $70,550, and for many traders, the desired target for SOL rests closer to $200. 

Currently, onchain data and derivatives market metrics suggest that SOL’s rally could continue in the short-term. 

Solana continues to lead in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, a clear indicator of user activity and transaction fees, both of which are crucial for fostering sustainable growth and encouraging further project and trader adoption.

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Surprise ETH price drop below $2.5K raises questions about Ethereum fundamentals

Ethereum price followed the broader crypto market sell-off, but its longer term price weakness is driven by network-specific factors.

Ether (ETH) prices declined by 9.6% from Oct. 20 to Oct. 23, following a strong rejection at the $2,700 level. This move erased the gains of the previous 10 days, and as Ether now stabilizes near $2,500, its 30-day performance remains negative, down by 6%.

The chance of ETH reclaiming the $2,800 support is diminishing and onchain data suggests that high transaction fees are pushing activity away from the Ethereum network, ultimately reducing demand for native staking. 

Total crypto capitalization (blue) vs. Ether/USD (green). Source: TradingView

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Memecoin craze fuels Solana price rally — Is $180 SOL the next stop?

A sharp uptick in Solana network activity and the blockbuster performance from memecoins back SOL’s rally toward $180.

Solana's native token, SOL (SOL), gained 12.1% from Oct. 11 to Oct. 18 and data suggests that the upward momentum was partially driven by demand for memecoins. Increasing demand translates to higher network volumes, fees, and total value locked (TVL). 

Traders are now debating whether the memecoin craze is sustainable and how SOL's price can continue to benefit from the surge in network activity.

While there is no fundamental basis for the surging demand for memecoins, it is clear that influential social media accounts direct traders' attention to the tokens. Take this  Oct. 12 post from pwnlord69 as an example.

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Ethereum price shows strength, but a 23% drop in DApps activity raises concern

Declining DApp activity and lackluster demand for the ETH ETFs could limit Ethereum’s recent price rally.

Ether (ETH) price surged 9.4% between Oct. 10 and Oct. 15, reaching its highest level in two weeks at $2,687. However, despite these recent gains, Ether remains down 25% over the past three months, reflecting investor disappointment with the recently launched spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the overall lack of demand for ETH, despite Ethereum's focus on prioritizing layer-2 scaling solutions.

In the past 7 days, the Ethereum network saw a 23% decline in onchain decentralized applications (DApp) volumes and this downturn has sparked speculation that Ether's price could follow suit.

While various factors have negatively affected Ether’s price since mid-July, it is particularly striking that the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remained relatively flat over the same three-month period.

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