Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya says that markets are ripe for a strong rally as a deluge of capital looks to find a new home. In a new episode of the All-In Podcast, the billionaire says that the macro picture is starting to look positive for the United States. The Social Capital founder first looks […]
The post Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya Predicts Market Rally, Says $6,000,000,000,000 Waiting To Be Deployed appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
The stock market declined on October 12 as the US BLS released new data showing prices rose faster than expected.
October 12, 2023
Stocks fell in the US today as newly released inflation data overshot expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 173.73 points (0.51%), to 33,631.14. The S&P 500 declined by 27.34 points (0.62%), ending the day at 4,349.61. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index lost 85.46 points (0.63%), declining to 13,574.22.
At 8:30 am ET, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data for the month of September. It showed that prices increased 0.4% over the course of the month and 3.7% in the year preceding October 1. This was higher than the 0.3% for the month and 3.6% year-over-year estimated by Dow Jones. Traders interpreted the higher-than-expected figure as bearish for equities, as it could imply that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously expected as they attempt to keep inflation under control.
Despite this decline in the overall market, shares of some retail-sector companies did unusually well. Wallgreens gained 7% after it reported that its losses had not been as great as previously expected, and Dollar General stock surged by nearly 10% after-hours as the company announced that former CEO Todd Vasos will return to the company.
US Treasury yields rose as traders digested the new inflation data. The 10-year note gained 0.102 points, reaching 4.699%. The two-year gained 0.066 points, rising to 5.071%.
Gold fell by $6.52 per Troy Ounce, to 1,868.93. Gold has been trending down since May 4, when it peaked at $2,060.60. Since then, concerns about rising interest rates and a strong dollar have kept the yellow metal in decline.
Oil gained slightly today, with West Texas Intermediate adding a penny per barrel (0.012%) to its price to reach $83.50. Brent crude gained $0.56 (0.65%) per barrel to reach $86.38.
In the forex market, the US Dollar Index rose 0.76 points, to 106.58. The euro fell 0.85% to $1.0528. The yen fell 0.47%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 149.7720. Many traders believe that Japanese monetary authorities will intervene if this number rises above 150.
Information for this news item was sourced from Apmex, CNBC, MSN Money, Yahoo Finance, and Business Insider.
Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from the Stone Age to the Stoned Age.
All US stock indices rose on October 11, as traders awaited consumer price index data to be released on the 12th.
October 11, 2023
US stocks rose for the fourth day in a row today, as traders waited for the consumer price index report to be released on October 12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 65.57 points (0.19%), to 33,804.87. The S&P 500 gained 18.71 points (0.43%), closing at 4,376.95. The Nasdaq went up by 96.83 points (0.71%), ending the day at 13,659.68.
Despite today’s uptick, stock prices are lower than they were in July, as fears of interest rate increases have dominated the market narrative since then. Bears expect inflation to rise faster than anticipated, causing the Fed to respond with more rate hikes, while bulls are more optimistic that inflation will stay under control and not require interest rates to rise much further. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release inflation data for September tomorrow. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones have estimated that the US experienced an inflation rate of 0.3% in the month.
Minutes for the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released today, revealing that the majority of members expect that at least one more rate hike will be needed this cycle, although some members disagreed with this majority viewpoint. All members agreed that rates will need to remain high until sufficient evidence proves that inflation is moving back to 2% per year.
The 10-year and two-year US Treasury yields moved in opposite directions over the course of the day. The 10-year fell by 0.1 points, to 4.564%. The two-year rose by 0.002 points, to 4.986%. The yield-curve remains inverted, which some traders view as a sign of an impending recession.
Despite the Fed’s talk of interest rate increases, gold traders remained bullish. Gold gained $13.81, rising to $1,873.56 per Troy Ounce.
Oil declined, with West Texas Intermediate falling $2.62 per barrel, to $83.33 and Brent crude falling $2.03 per barrel, to $85.62. Oil surged over 4% on Monday, when traders began to fear that new Iran sanctions may be imposed due to the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, it began to slip back to lower levels on Tuesday after Iran denied involvement in the conflict, and this decline has continued today.
In the forex market, the US Dollar Index fell 0.1%, to 105.73. The euro rose 0.1275%, to 1.0622. The yen fell 0.2777%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 149.1180. Some traders expect the Bank of Japan to intervene if this number rises above 150.
Information for this news item was sourced from CNBC, Marketwatch, Kitco, Business Insider and MSN Money.
Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.
Treasury yields declined, giving stock market bulls new momentum.
October 10, 2023
Stocks in the US rose for the third straight day as the market continues to assess the effect of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Bond yields fell as investors desired the safety of US Treasuries, and these falling yields helped to bolster the stock market. Today was the first day that Treasuries have been traded since the start of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, as the bond market was closed on Monday.
The Dow rose 134.65 points (0.4%), to 33,739.30. The S&P 500 gained 22.58 points (0.5%), reaching 4,358.24. The Nasdaq climbed 78.61 points (0.6%), ending the day at 13,562.84.
The yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Note fell 0.149 points, to 4.655%, and the 2-year note fell 0.148 points, to 4.961%. The yield on a Treasury Note is inversely related to its price, so a falling yield implies a rising price for it. Stocks have been under pressure since July, as continuously rising yields have attracted investors to Treasuries instead of stocks, but today’s pullback in yields was seen as a welcome relief by stock market bulls.
Oil prices declined as war-related fears began to wane. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $0.59 per barrel, to $85.79, while Brent crude declined by $0.03, to $87.62. Over the weekend, some traders had begun to fear renewed sanctions against Iran, which could reduce supply and drive up prices. But Iran denied involvement on Monday, which gradually began to reduce these expectations.
Gold prices saw a reduction of $0.79 per Troy Ounce, falling to $1,860.48. Despite an early dip, a rally emerged around 10:30 am ET, enabling gold to recover a significant portion of its earlier losses.
The US Dollar Index rose 0.29%, to 105.77. The euro gained 0.3852%, ending up at 1.0606. The yen fell 0.1%, causing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to rise to 148.6660.
Vintage Markets is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.
The Dow and S&P 500 fell early in the day, but rebounded to end the day positive.
October 9, 2023
US markets demonstrated resilience on Monday, initially succumbing to concerns over the escalating Israeli-Gaza conflict, but rebounding later to close in the green. The Dow closed up 0.5%, at 33,604.65. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6%, reaching 4,335.66. The tech-heavy Nasdaq went to 13,484.24, a gain of 0.4%. The S&P was down slightly at 10:50 a.m. ET, having fallen from 4281.91 to 4285.73, a loss of 3.852 points, but this loss was erased by the end of the day. The other two indices made similar moves down, then up.
Over the weekend, Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack against Israel. The new outbreak of war caused some traders to fear volatility will rock the market, causing a bearish sentiment to take hold early on. However, these fears were largely shrugged off over the course of the day. Defense-related companies surged, with Lockheed Martin gaining 8.5% and Northrop Grumman Corp gaining 11%. Oil producers also gained thanks to a belief that high oil prices are coming.
Gold was buoyed by the turmoil, rising $13.59 (0.74%), to $1,861.53.
Oil also rose today, with West Texas Intermediate hitting $86.29, a gain of 4.24% on the day. Brent crude rose to $88.05, a gain of 4.09% on the day. GasBuddy issued a report stating that US gasoline prices have declined by $0.11 per gallon, but this was mostly overlooked and failed to stop the war-driven oil rally.
The US Dollar Index rose by 0.03%, to 106.08. In tandem with the rise in the dollar, the euro fell 0.2220%, to 1.0566. The yen gained 0.5138%, bringing the number of yen needed to buy a dollar to 148.5070. The yen has been trading sideways since September 25, when the Bank of Japan stated that it would intervene if the currency fell much further. Prior to that date, it had lost 13% of its value since the start of the year.
Information for this news item was sourced from CNBC, OilPrice, Yahoo Finance, MSN Money, and Marketwatch.
Vintage Finance is dedicated to the in-depth exploration and reporting of traditional financial news, tracing the journey of global markets and economies from Stone Age to Stoned Age.
Bitcoin accumulation during the 2022 bear market looks stronger than in 2018 but macro headwinds could spoil the party this time around.
While Bitcoin (BTC) investors may not consider the U.S. midterm elections as a significant event, an eerie fractal from 2018 may provide a clue to what could happen before the year ends.
Comparing Bitcoin's price actions prior to the midterm elections of 2018 with those of 2022 shows a strikingly similar bear market trend.
For instance, BTC price trended lower in 2018 while holding a horizontal level near $6,000 as support, only to break below it after the midterm elections.
In 2022, the cryptocurrency has halfway mirrored this trend. Its price now awaits a close below the current horizontal support level of around $19,000. With the midterm elections scheduled for Nov. 8, the said breakdown scenario could occur sooner or later, as illustrated below.
Independent market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy thinks Bitcoin's price will fall into the $12,000-$14,000 range if a similar breakdown occurs. He further notes that the cryptocurrency could bottom out in November or December 2022, just like in 2018.
$BTC Bottom Analysis
— Aditya Siddhartha Roy❁ (@Adityaroypspk) October 16, 2022
Comparing to 2018 & 2022 Bear market
•Support Getting Weak - TrendLine Manipulation - Midterm Elections - Post Midterm Elections Dump - #BTC Bottom
•Nov-Dec could be bottom for #Bitcoin
•Retweet Appreciated #cryptocurrency #Crypto #ETH $ETH #Binance pic.twitter.com/GHDiHu4H3H
The bearish prediction surfaces as Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities grows stronger in the wake of the Federal Reserve's monetary policies. Both markets have witnessed sharp drawdowns in the period of the U.S. central bank's rate hikes in 2022.
Historically, in 17 of the 19 midterms since 1946, the stock market has performed better in the six months after an election than in the six months following it.
That is primarily due to the market's expectations of higher government spending from a new Congress, notes Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist, who further argues that 2022 could yield a different outcome.
"An additional infusion of funds seems unlikely this year, given the government's historic levels of spending and stimulus in response to the pandemic," she explains, adding:
"The combination of high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and a lingering pandemic has already made this cycle, unlike prior midterm years. With so many other forces at play in the market, I wouldn't put much weight in historical midterm-year performance."
As a result, Bitcoin remains at risk of tailing U.S. stocks lower, with the $12,000–$14,000 price target in view.
However, a section of the crypto market sees Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may not tail S&P 500 into a post-midterm election crash.
"At some point, the market will be controlled by those in the community that is long-term believers in BTC and very unlikely to sell and the growing global community which uses BTC for commerce," Stephane Ouellette, chief executive of FRNT Financial Inc., told Bloomberg.
Related: Bitcoin clings to $19K as trader promises capitulation ‘will happen‘
Ouellette' statement came after the daily correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and S&P 500 dropped to 0.08 on Oct. 9, the lowest in four months.
Meanwhile, the number of unique addresses holding at least 1 BTC reached a new record high on Oct. 17, contrary to trends witnessed during the 2018 bear market. This suggests investors have been accumulating Bitcoin at local price dips.
"The on-chain data suggests those holders are optimistic the market will bounce back, keeping market fundamentals relatively healthy," according to a note from crypto exchange Bitfinex.
Market analyst Wolf offered a similar outlook, citing Bitcoin's extremely oversold relative strength index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on weekly charts in 2022, which technically hints at a period of accumulation ahead.
Comparing current structure with 2018 before capitulation is, imo, complete non sense
— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) October 17, 2022
Just by looking at the weekly RSI and MACD differences are notable.
In 2018 RSI was floating at a mid range of 45s, in 2022 RSI has hit its lowest level ever. $BTC pic.twitter.com/3Zyp9DDPA6
In comparison, these oscillators were in the neutral zone prior to the 2018 midterm election, meaning BTC's price had more room to decline.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
A closely followed crypto strategist is sending a warning to Bitcoin (BTC) traders, highlighting that BTC is flashing a massive bearish signal. Analyst Kevin Svenson tells his 106,500 Twitter followers that Bitcoin is now trading below a crucial support area that has kept the market bullish since late 2020. “People’s bias tends to blind them […]
The post Top Crypto Analyst Issues Bitcoin Warning, Says BTC in the Midst of Macrotrend Breakdown appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Yes, if the signs of bottoming out coming from the U.S. stock market are true.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $41,000 on Feb. 28 in a new sign of buying sentiment returning after last week's brutal selloff across the risk-on markets, including the S&P 500.
BTC's price jumped by over 9% to reach $41,300 in part as traders reacted to the ongoing development in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In doing so, the cryptocurrency briefly broke its correlation with the U.S. stock market indexes to perform more like safe-haven gold, whose price also went higher in early trading Monday.
Johal Miles, an independent market analyst, spotted "significant buying pressure" in the market, adding that its downtrend might be heading towards exhaustion.
Miles highlighted Bitcoin's recent upside retracement moves upon testing levels near $34,000 as support. For instance, on Jan. 24 and Feb. 24, BTC's price formed a bullish hammer candlestick on its daily chart, hinting at a U-turn during an established downtrend.
The same bullish hammers appeared last year in May and June, with their bottoms sitting below the key support level of $30,000. This was followed up with a sharp price reversal in the Bitcoin market with BTC's price reaching as high as $69,000 in November 2021.
Additionally, Miles noted that the buying sentiment in the area between $28,500 and $34,200 came to be comparatively higher than around $46,000, a support Bitcoin broke to the downside in January 2022.
"The key difference between the current range and the range we had previously at 46k is we are now seeing significant buying pressure when we visit the lows," the analyst tweeted Monday, adding:
The spells exhaustion of the downtrend to me, similar to summer.
Buying pressure at the lows on equities. Bottom forming a clear possibility.
— Miles J Creative (@JohalMiles) February 28, 2022
Acceleration out of here possible we could also sweep the lows once more but expect buyers to step in again.
Smart money buying, dumb money selling.$BTC pic.twitter.com/eNSibdZkfd
Alexander Tkachenko, CEO and Founder, VNX — a Luxembourg-based token issuance platform, highlighted Bitcoin's potential to rebound sharply following a confirmed U.S. stock market bottom, adding that its price could reach $64,000 based on Wycoff methodology.
"From a global perspective, all signs are that Bitcoin has entered the re-accumulation stage according to Wycoff's methodology," he told Cointelegraph, adding:
"One can expect a move towards USD64,000 and a further upward trend mid-term. The potential growth in the price of Bitcoin is imminent as projected, particularly drawing on the coin's close ties to mainstream or the traditional stock market, the S&P Index."
Macro analysts also noted that the benchmark S&P 500 might have started bottoming out after staging a historical reversal on Feb. 24. In detail, the index rebounded by nearly 4.5% despite being initially down by more than 2.5%. Such a retracement has not happened since the 2008 financial crisis.
PC Oscillator has now found a local bottom at the support of February 2020, which may hint at a continuation of the local rebound. The question is if the rebound continues, will #Bitcoin follow it or not? Correlation says YES, but it may be OTHERWISE!$SPX $BTC #btc #crypto pic.twitter.com/zB9crBCXhg
— barovirtual.io (@BaroVirtual) February 27, 2022
Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, said sharp stock market reversals during a price correction are "indicative of a classic bear market rally," except when the economy has not been undergoing a phase of recession.
"Historical precedence says we are [near the lows of the ongoing correction] if we avoid a recession," he told Business Insider while highlighting the improving U.S. economic data, ranging from a strong consumer balance sheet to record-high corporate earnings to a strengthening labor market.
The views lined up with what FS Insight predicted in its recent S&P 500 market analysis. Co-founded by JPMorgan's former equity strategist Tom Lee, the firm noted that the index showed signs of bottoming out.
Related: Hodl, don’t trade, says the AI Bitcoin trading bot
"Prices remain under prior days' highs amidst a negative trend with bearish momentum," said Mark Newton, FS's head of technical strategy, in a note, adding:
"I favor being long and buying dips, anticipating that markets work higher into March FOMC and that Growth outperforms Value."
Classic Bollinger Band W bottom on the weekly $SPX chart.https://t.co/FHEInV5pwE
— John Bollinger (@bbands) February 25, 2022
The correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500 was 0.36 above zero as of Feb. 28, 16:30, UTC.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
BTC is more than 50% down from its $69,000 all-time high and traders seem to have no clue about the digital asset’s next direction.
It is not too late for Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim its bullish bias as it halfway paints an indecisive 'Doji' candle on the weekly chart.
In detail, Bitcoin's price correction this week to below $33,000 had it form a lower wick, suggesting that bulls bought the dip. A sharp retracement ensued and took BTC price to as high as $38,960 on Jan. 27. However, the bulls failed to hold the said week-to-date top for too long, resulting in another wick, but also pointing to the upside.
BTC price has since corrected to near its weekly opening rate of $36,200. In doing so, it has formed a transitional candlestick, called "Doji," that reflects indecision between bears and bulls. If found at the bottom of trends, Doji candlesticks could signal the reversal of price direction.
Bitcoin has been trending lower since it established its record high at $69,000 in Nov. 2021. In doing so, the cryptocurrency wiped more than 50% of its profits, even dropping below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), a support key support level.
But Bitcoin's strongest interim support comes in at $30,000, a level that has been capping the cryptocurrency's downside attempts since Jan. 2021. Notably, in May-July 2021, the level was instrumental in attracting accumulators that helped the BTC price climb to its record high.
"If the support around $30K holds, it's possible we will see a strong upward trend resuming," noted Crypto Batman, a pseudonymous market analyst.
Additionally, a Doji formation ahead of the BTC price hitting $30,000-support shows a weaker bearish sentiment near the level.
On the flip side, Bitcoin's bullish outlook may fizzle out if its price drops decisively below $30,000.
In detail, Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index is currently near 38, and still heading toward its oversold territory below '30.' It shows that the BTC price still has room to continue its decline in the coming sessions, at least until it tests $30,000.
Meanwhile, a close below $30,000 puts Bitcoin at the risk of falling towards its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave in the chart above) near $25,000. That is primarily due to the wave's history of ending bearish cycles in 2018 and 2019, which followed by sharp retracements to new record highs.
This week, Bitcoin wobbled between extreme highs and lows due to the suspense around the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans for 2022 to combat inflation. On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency's gains fizzled out after the U.S. central bank confirmed that it would raise interest rates in mid-March.
Jerome Powell's press conference after the statement further revealed the Fed's likelihood to increase rates after every policy meeting for the rest of the year. The Fed chairman admitted that the inflation outlook had worsened since their policy meeting in December, underscoring that the ongoing supply chain issues may not get resolved by the end of 2022.
Reading the Powell transcript now. I think this was a good question from @colbyLsmith and a helpful answer from Powell in terms of understanding the FOMC's thinking. pic.twitter.com/KDizwQf4Jr
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) January 26, 2022
Bitcoin see-sawed in the hours leading up to the Fed's statement and during Powell's conference Wednesday afternoon. It briefly jumped to almost $39,000 after the central bank released its policy decision but started falling after Powell started speaking to journalists later in the afternoon.
Independent market analyst CryotoBirb played down the fears surrounding the Fed's tightening policy, stating that the central bank would not take "a destructive approach towards financial markets."
Related: Is the bottom in? Data shows Bitcoin derivatives entering the ‘capitulation’ zone
The chartist noted that a Fed-led stock market collapse would look bad on the politicians, which may leave the central bank with the option to only bring "short-term bearish implications" to the risky markets, followed by strong medium-term increases.
"It is also worth adding into the larger context that Bitcoin has freshly taken advantage over the equities, and while the stocks tumbled down, Bitcoin took off to the upside," he added.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
