What’s next for Bitcoin price now that German gov’t BTC balance hits zero?

July 13, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price falls to $29.5K, but on-chain data reflects investors’ growing interest

July 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin price falls to .5K, but on-chain data reflects investors' growing interest</div>

BTC price dropped below $30,000 again today, but the recent crab market price action is also backed by compelling investor activity on-chain.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped below the $30,000 level on July 18, which given the developments of the last month, retail investors may not have expected, but does today’s downside move represent an upcoming shift in the trend?

Data suggests that over the longer-term it does not.

To get to the positives first, Bitcoin price is still attempting to flip the $30,000 level to support after about 10 attempts since April of this year, but price is continuously finding buyers in the $28,000 to $25,000 range which buyers seem to be viewing as an accumulation zone.

On-chain data from Glassnode’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score supports this sentiment and could be a positive, depending on how investors’ look at things given that the behavior of investors at $30,000 BTC price mirrors the same accumulation behavior seen in the $28,000 to $24,000 zone and the near the supposed $16,800 bottom.

*Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. Source: glassnode*

According to glassnode, “an Accumulation Trend Score of closer to 1 indicates that on aggregate, larger entities (or a big part of the network) are accumulating, and a value closer to 0 indicates they are distributing or not accumulating.”

Basically, buyers strongly accumulated from Nov. 2022 to Dec. 2022 and they were heavy accumulators from March to April 2023 when BTC recaptured $30,000 and the metric suggests they are doing the same in July as BTC attempts to either conquer the $30,000 resistance or received a boost from all the ETF and XRP SEC news.

Bitcoin is in a crab market

The current price action and derivatives market data suggest that Bitcoin is in a crab market, where price remains range bound and consolidates for a prolonged period of time. As JLabs analyst JJ the Janitor pointed out last week, a strong push through the $32,000 level would catalyze a CME gap fill from the Luna Terra-crash era.

*Bitcoin CME Futures showcasing Luna crash CME Gap. Source: JJ The Janitor*

From the perspective of Bitcoin’s weekly market structure, the $30,000 level is an important pivot point that has functioned as support in the previous bull market cycle (and now as resistance) but a grab above that level would essentially set a higher high on the longer time frame and be confirmation of a trend reversal where the next point of resistance is around the $37,000 level.

*BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

Traders’ activity in the derivatives market is another factor contributing to the current crab market. Funding is down, open interest is relatively muted and besides retail plebs who are attempting to long breakouts and long lower support retests, or short breakouts and getting liquidated in both instances, a meaningful surge in these metrics that would inspire confidence that price is on the verge of some massive breakout has yet to emerge.

*BTC/USDT derivatives data, daily chart. Source: JJ The Janitor*

Sure, DXY took a dip below 100 last week but it's possibly more connected to investors reacting to the Fed’s positive steps on inflation and too tight of a timeframe to expect some massive reaction from BTC immediately.

The price action in crypto exchange futures highlights degen longs and shorts trying to get ahead of price breakouts and that they are not having much success in the short term.

JJ the Janitor suggests that a metric to watch is aggregate open interest, if that breaks down sharply from the current range then some true buy the dip opportunities could emerge. Currently, it’s still in an uptrend, albeit sideways, but seeing a surge in OI could also be interesting and likely news, regulatory or legislative event driven.

While Bitcoin’s short-term price action might raise some concern among newer investors and day-traders, the on-chain perspective remains quite compelling.

The #Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply remains at an ATH of 14.5M BTC. This suggests mature investors are preferring to accumulate Bitcoin, rather than distribute. pic.twitter.com/VkY9uTAVGG
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 18, 2023

At the same time, the Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses metric has also resumed its uptrend since March 16, when BTC price traded at $25,000.

*Bitcoin Total Balance in Accumulation Addresses (BTC). Source: glassnode*

Readers should also note that the metric also shows the total balance in accumulation addresses increasing since January 2022, when Bitcoin price was trading at $47,800 per coin. What is apparent is that through the worst of the crypto market collapse and Bitcoin price sell-off, multiple on-chain metrics show investors continuing to increase their allocation to BTC.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Is Bitcoin bullish or nah? Here is what is really going on with BTC price

November 4, 2022 Coin Telegraph

are we in a recession

Data suggests BTC is finally carving out a bottom, but is it time to buy?

Since March 2022, traders and so-called analysts have been forecasting a policy change or pivot from the United States Federal Reserve.

Apparently, such a move would prove that the Fed’s only available option is to print into oblivion, further diminishing the value of the dollar and enshrining Bitcoin (BTC) as the world’s future reserve asset and ultimate store of value.

Apparently.

Well, this week (Nov. 2) theFed raised interest rates by the expected 0.75%, and equities and crypto rallied like they usually do.

But this time, there was a twist. Prior to the FOMC gathering, there were a few unconfirmed leaks that the Fed and White House were considering a “policy pivot.”

According to comments issued by the FOMC and during Jerome Powell’s presser, Powell emphasized that the Fed is aware of and monitoring how policy is impacting markets and that the latency of interest rate hikes is being acknowledged and considered.

According to the Fed:

“In order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

Sounds a bit pivot-y, no? The crypto market seemed to think not, and shortly after Powell gave his live comments, Bitcoin, altcoins and equities retracted their brief single-digit gains.

The shock here is not that Bitcoin’s price pulled back prior to the FOMC, rallied after the estimated hike was announced and then retracted before the stock market closed. This is to be expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if BTC returns to the lower end of $21,000 since $20,000 appears to be solidified as support.

What is surprising is there was a dash of pivot language, and markets didn’t react accordingly. Let that be a lesson on buying into narratives too deeply.

In my opinion, trading the FOMC, CPI and rate hikes is not the way to go. Sure, if you’re a day trader, have deep pockets to benefit from those 2% or 4% moves or are an experienced, skilled professional trader, then go for it. But, as shown in the chart from Jarvis Labs, trading FOMC and CPI really can just chop traders up.

*BTC price action before and after FOMC events. Source: Jarvis Labs*

I’m of the mind that intraday price moves from Bitcoin on a less-than-daily time frame are irrelevant if your motive is to be long on Bitcoin and increase the stack. So, instead of focusing on micro events like how the Fed continues to raise rates, a policy it is resolute on until inflation drops to its 2% target, let’s look at other metrics that assess Bitcoin’s current market structure and projected performance.

On-chain data suggests it’s time to accumulate

*Bitcoin Yardstick metric. Source: Glassnode and Capriole Investments*

On Nov. 1, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards debuted a new on-chain metric called the Bitcoin Yardstick. According to Edwards, the metric takes “Bitcoin market-cap / hash rate, and normalized (divided by) the 2 year average” to essentially take “the ratio of energy work done to secure the Bitcoin network in relation to price.”

Edwards explains that “lower readings = cheaper Bitcoin = better value,” and in his opinion:

“Today we are seeing valuations unheard of since Bitcoin was $4 - $6K.”

Similar to Glassnode’s recent report, Edwards also believes that long-term holders have already capitulated. After citing the chart below, Edwards said:

“Net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) is showing a washout in long-term holders. We have entered the capitulation zone (red) seen only once every 4 years in the past.”

As discussed in last week’s Bitcoin on-chain update, multiple on-chain metrics are at multi-year lows, and there is sufficient precedent to suggest upside gains far outweigh the downside potential at the moment.

Did Bitcoin’s MACD histogram turn bullish?

Another metric causing a buzz in trader circles is the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Throughout the week, multiple traders cited the indicator, noting that a convergence between the signal line and MACD and the histogram turning “green” on the weekly timeframe as encouraging signs that Bitcoin is in a bottoming process.

While the indicator is not meant to be interpreted as a pure signal in isolation, crossovers on the weekly and monthly time frame, along with the histogram flipping from red to green, have usually been accompanied by a steady uptick in bullish momentum.

While data is unable to confirm whether a market bottom is truly in, comparing the current readings to previous market cycles and Bitcoin’s price action does suggest that BTC is undervalued in its current range.

BTC’s price may be carving out a bottom, but this does not rule out the possibility of the occasional crypto- and equities market-related sell-off that could catalyze a swift wick down to the yearly low.

This newsletter was written by Big Smokey, the author of The Humble Pontificator Substack and resident newsletter author at Cointelegraph. Each Friday, Big Smokey will write market insights, trending how-tos, analyses and early-bird research on potential emerging trends within the crypto market.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin analysts map out the key bull and bear cases for BTC’s price action

October 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bear market

BTC price is showing slight bullish momentum, leading on-chain analysts to present potentially bearish and bullish data-based scenarios.

Research has detailed Bitcoin’s recent record-low volatility and while traders expect an eventual price breakout, the Oct. 26 BTC price move to $21,000 is not yet being interpreted as confirmation that $20,000 has now become support.

In a recent “The Week On-chain Newsletter,” Glassnode analysts mapped out a bull case and a bear case for BTC.

According to the report, the bear case includes limited on-chain transaction activity, stagnant non-zero address growth and reduced miner profits present a strong Bitcoin sell-off risk but data also shows that long-term hodlers are more determined than ever to weather the current bear market.

The bull case, on the other hand, entails an increase in whale wallets, outflow from centralized exchanges and hodling by longer term investors.

Stalled new address growth

On-chain active address growth remains stagnant across the BTC network. A reduction in transactions translates to a decrease in utilization and user growth for the network, factors which could possibly hinder BTC price expansion.

*Bitcoin transactions of active addresses versus Bitcoin’s price. Source: Glassnode*

New addresses within the Bitcoin ecosystem that possess a non-zero address have also plateaued, a trend which also occurred in November 2018. Stalled growth in new non-zero addresses back in 2018, was followed by a BTC price dip and did not recover until January 2019 when this metric began to increase.

*New non-zero Bitcoin wallets. Source: Glassnode*

Miner selling could trigger a new sell-off

In previous years, many BTC miners held on to large quantities of BTC in their reserves. However, since the onset of the bear market, many miners are selling BTC in order to cover their capital costs and operational expenses.

With BTC mining production costs are rising amid a backdrop of falling revenues, miners are deleveraging by selling their newly mined BTC. Glassnode warned that that the current:

“Deleveraging events of miners may lead to distribution into thin order books, historically light demand, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and liquidity constraints.”

As the price of BTC drops and miners’ profitability shrinks, miners may be forced to liquidate more of their reserve Bitcoin holdings.

*Bitcoin balance in miner wallets. Source: Glassnode*

Whales are accumulating

In spite of the falling BTC prices many BTC whales that hold an excess of 10,000 BTC are possibly increasing their holdings even in bear market conditions. As shown in the chart below, they continue to accumulate BTC after distributing in April and September.

*Bitcoin accumulation trend chart. Source: Glassnode*

BTC withdrawals from centralized exchange could reduce sell pressure

Funds moved from centralized exchanges weakens immediate selling pressure on the market. Coinbase, one of the highest volume centralized exchanges, is seeing large amounts of BTC withdraws. When comparing the current BTC outflow from Coinbase to the post-March 2020 peak at the exchange, over 48% of the total BTC at the exchange has been transferred out.

Glassnode points out that:

“Coinbase has seen a very large-scale net withdrawal of -41.6k BTC this week... It is important to note that these outflows are based on our best estimated wallet clusters, and appear to be a combination of coins flowing into both investor wallets, and/or institutional grade custody solutions.”

*Bitcoin balance on Coinbase. Source: Glassnode*

Hodlers keep hodling

According to the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, the total USD wealth held in BTC, valued at the time of each coin's last transaction, is now disproportionately skewed to longer-term holders. The proportion of wealth held in coins that moved in the last 3-months is now at an all-time-low. The reciprocal observation is that wealth held by coins older than 3-months (increasingly held by Hodlers) is now at an all-time-high.

While some Bitcoin analysts believe BTC’s low volatility during this period is “a calm before the storm” and the current macroeconomic and price surge of BTC may show the resolve of hodlers as the winning factor.

Why is Bitcoin price up today?

October 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price is up, and most altcoins are following — but why?

Bitcoin price is up today, and a market-wide rally in crypto prices suggests that BTC and Ether (ETH) could be aiming to wrap up the month of October in the black.

As of October 26, 2022, most major cryptocurrencies are posting single-digit gains. Bitcoin recorded a 5.15% price increase within the last 24 hours and a 5.48% gain within the last 7 days. While the current price is fluctuating, BTC is holding above the psychologically important $20,000 level. The following chart shows the BTC rally since October 24, 2022.

Stocks are beginning the day down as Bitcoin continues to remain over $20,000. Bitcoin’s momentum has continued for 3 days now and is seeing green candles today. The recent price spike pushed Bitcoin’s total market capitalization above the $1T mark and comes after months of narrow sideways trading range of $18,000 and $20,000.

Hand in hand with Bitcoin’s growth, most major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Ripple (XRP) and Tron (TRX) registered more than 10% price increases within the last 48 hours. There are several reasons for the crypto rally.

The current rally in BTC and other major cryptocurrencies may indicate an increase in confidence in the market following several key developments; here we give details of the key drivers of the growth

$1 billion in short positions were liquidated

Since Bitcoin price crashed to $17,600 on June 18, the open interest of BTC futures contracts has been surging. The current price move triggered a wave of liquidations and one data point to keep an eye on is if we see a sharp reduction in aggregate open interest.

Data shows that Bitcoin short liquidations accounted for $550 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours. $704 million in cross-crypto shorts were liquidated on Oct. 25, with the Oct. 26 tally so far standing at $275 million.

*Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass*

Short liquidations directly help push the Bitcoin price higher by forcing automated buy pressure. The current rally is seeing open interest gaining momentum after remaining consistent since October which explains much of the sideways trading as well as the current rally.

*Bitcoin options open interest. Source: Coinglass*

Macro movements are starting to turn in Bitcoin’s favor

Investors’ confidence in the crypto market could also be rising due to their belief that the United States Federal Reserve could roll out smaller-sized interest rate hikes in the next two months. According to Macromicro, a firm that publishes investors’ consensus estimates on expected changes in interest rates, shows that interest rates may be lower than previously anticipated in the near future.

*Investors believe interest rates could fall. Source: Macromicro*

The graph points to a possible slow down in the interest rate hikes. The public sentiment shows that future rates may fall and investors believe that this has created the possibility for a broad crypto market recovery.

The S&P 500 provides a general overview for the economy in general. Currently, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 share a high correlation coefficient.

Therefore if interest rates ease and the economy grows, Bitcoin could continue to rally if a similar turn-around were to take place in equities markets. The better the macro climate, the better for Bitcoin price.

Stocks stage a multi-day rally and the UK gets a crypto friendly leader

The selection of Rishi Sunak as the new UK prime minister appears to have boosted crypto investor sentiment. Sunak is a crypto advocate and once commissioned a royal NFT. As a result, the world expects him to make major reforms in the crypto sector.

During his tenure as the Finance Minister under the leadership of Boris Johnson, Sunak indicated his willingness to make the UK a cryptocurrency hub.

In April 2022 Sunak said:

“It’s my ambition to make the UK a global hub for crypto asset technology, and the measures we’ve outlined today will help to ensure firms can invest, innovate and scale up in this country.”

It is still too early to determine whether or not the October 26 rally is a sign of a trend change, but one thing is clear.Factors impacting Bitcoin price and the crypto market are clearly being driven by the forced unwinding of futures contracts, positive movement in macro markets and investors’ expectation that central bank policy and potential crypto regulatory frameworks will improve.

why is Bitcoin price up