Bitcoin futures data highlight investors’ bullish view, but there’s a catch

October 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bonds

The stars are lining up for Bitcoin price, but a few major price threats remain in play.

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged by 26.5% in October and several indicators hit a one-year high, including the BTC futures premium and the Grayscale GBTC discount.

For this reason, it's challenging to present a bearish thesis for BTC as data reflects the post-FTX-Alameda Research collapse recovery period and is also influenced by the recent increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Despite the positive indicators, Bitcoin price still remains around 50% below its all-time high of $69,900 which was hit in November 2021. In contrast, gold is trading just 4.3% below its $2,070 level from March 2022. This stark difference diminishes the significance of Bitcoin's year-to-date gains of 108% and highlights the fact that Bitcoin's adoption as an alternative hedge is still in its early stages.

Before deciding whether the improvement in Bitcoin futures premium, open interest and the GBTC fund premium signal a return to the norm, or the initial signs of institutional investors' interest, it's essential for investors to analyze the macroeconomic environment.

The U.S. budget issue sparks Bitcoin’s institutional hope

On Oct. 30, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to auction off $1.6 trillion of debt over the next six months. However, the key factor to watch is the size of the auction and the balance between shorter-term Treasury bills and longer-duration notes and bonds, according to CNBC.

Billionaire and Duquesne Capital founder Stanley Druckenmiller criticized Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's focus on shorter-term debt, calling it "the biggest blunder in the history of the Treasury." This unprecedented increase in the debt rate by the world's largest economy has led Druckenmiller to praise Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

The surge in Bitcoin futures open interest, reaching its highest level since May 2022 at $15.6 billion, can be attributed to institutional demand driven by inflationary risks in the economy. Notably, the CME has become the second-largest trading venue for Bitcoin derivatives, with $3.5 billion notional of BTC futures.

Moreover, the Bitcoin futures premium, which measures the difference between 2-month contracts and the spot price, has reached its highest level in over a year. These fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to delay settlement.

*Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The demand for leveraged BTC long positions has significantly increased, as the futures contract premium jumped from 3.5% to 8.3% on Oct. 31, surpassing the neutral-to-bullish threshold of 5% for the first time in 12 months.

Further bolstering the speculation of institutional demand is Grayscale's GBTC fund discount narrowing the gap to the equivalent underlying BTC holdings. This instrument was trading at a 20.7% discount on Sept. 30 but has since reduced this deficit to 14.9% as investors anticipate a higher likelihood of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S.

Not everything is rosy for Bitcoin, and exchange risks loom

While the data seems undeniably positive for Bitcoin, especially when compared to previous months, investors should take exchange-provided numbers with caution, particularly when dealing with unregulated derivatives contracts.

The U.S. interest rate has surged to 5.25%, and exchange risks have escalated post-FTX, making the 8.6% Bitcoin futures premium less bullish. For comparison, the CME Bitcoin annualized premium stands at 6.8%, while Comex gold futures trade at a 5.5% premium, and CME's S&P 500 futures trade at 4.9% above spot prices.

The Bitcoin futures premium, in the broader context, is not excessively high, especially considering that Bloomberg analysts give a 95% chance of approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF. Investors are also mindful of the general risks in cryptocurrency markets, as highlighted by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's call for the Justice Department to take "swift action" against Binance and Tether.

The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could trigger sell pressure from GBTC holders. Part of the $21.4 billion in GBTC holdings will finally be able to exit their positions at par after years of limitations imposed by Grayscale's administration and exorbitant 2% yearly fees. In essence, the positive data and performance of Bitcoin reflect a return to the mean rather than excessive optimism.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Rise on Inflation Data As Countdown to US Debt Default Looms

May 10, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin options: How to play it when BTC price moves up or down 10%

May 8, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bank

A perfect storm is forming for higher volatility. Learn how to profit from BTC price moves on either side.

Here’s how Bitcoin (BTC) traders can profit whether its price move up or down 10% within 55 days.

Bitcoin options: Bracing for volatility

Traditional market analysts have started calling for a volatility spike due to the United States government debt discussion.

Moreover, signs of stress coming from the banking sector surprised investors after the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, reached its lowest level in 12 months at 101 on May 4.

Stock market and macro analyst Markets & Mayhem posted a chart from Deutsche Bank that correlates historical government spending and debt concerns with spikes in the stock market volatility.

Volatility could rise into a government debt debacle as the kabuki theater carries on

Source: Deutsche pic.twitter.com/fmJVKvUZvc
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 1, 2023

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the government may run out of cash by June if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. According to the BBC, President Joe Biden has called a meeting of congressional leaders on the issue for May 9.

Government officials said the overspending is partly due to lower-than-expected income tax receipts, which are typical of recession periods.

Volatility could impact Bitcoin price, but direction unknown

It is worth noting that the volatility indicator neither dictates whether the market has been gaining strength nor anticipates eventual crashes.

The index calculation does not account for price gains or losses, only directional changes. Thus, if the volatility reaches historically low levels, it merely reflects that the asset has displayed a low amplitude of daily price fluctuations.

*Bitcoin 40-day realized volatility. Source: TradingView*

Notice how Bitcoin’s 40-day historical volatility does not usually remain below 40% for long. That information, coupled with the traditional markets’ stress caused by the regional banking crisis and the debt ceiling discussion might be brewing the perfect storm for a sharp volatility spike.

While one can benefit from the expectation of higher volatility for the next couple of weeks, most investors are unwilling to take directional bets, meaning they have no confidence in whether the market will move up or down.

However, there is an options strategy that fits this scenario and allows investors to profit from a strong move on either side.

The reverse (short) iron butterfly is a limited-risk, limited-profit options trading strategy. It’s important to remember that options have a set expiration date, meaning the price change must happen during the defined period.

*Profit/Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The option prices above were taken on May 5, with Bitcoin trading at $29,172. All options listed are for the June 30 expiry, but this strategy can also be used using a different time frame.

The suggested non-directional strategy consists of selling 9.2 BTC contracts of the $26,000 put options while simultaneously selling 12.2 call options with a $33,000 strike. To finalize the trade, one should buy 13.5 contracts of $30,000 call options and another 8 contracts of $30,000 put options.

While this call option gives the buyer the right to acquire an asset, the contract seller gets a (potential) negative exposure. To fully protect from market oscillations, one must deposit 0.90 BTC (roughly $26,250), representing the investors’ maximum loss.

Conviction is essential, as the risk-reward ratio is reversed

For this investor to profit, one needs Bitcoin’s price to be below $27,000 on June 30 (down 7.5%) or above $32,150 (up 10.2%). In essence, the trade has a hugely profitable area, but loses over twice the potential gain if Bitcoin fails to move either way considerably.

The maximum payout is 0.337 BTC (roughly $9,830), but if a trader is confident that volatility is right around the corner, a 10% move in 55 days seems quite feasible.

Notice that the investor can revert the operation before the options expiry, preferably right after a strong Bitcoin price move. All one needs to do is buy back the two options that have been sold and sell the other two that were previously bought.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

‘Fiat Is Fragile’ — Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse Sparks Finger-Pointing and Concerns of Contagion

March 11, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Derivatives data highlights crypto traders’ positive sentiment and belief in further upside

February 28, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

A 5.5% weekly decline in the total crypto market capitalization might have sucked the wind out of some altcoins, but it has done little to alter traders' bullish point-of-view.

The recent weakness in the crypto market has not invalidated the six-week-long ascending trend, even after a failed test of the channel's upper band on Feb. 21. The total crypto market capitalization remains above the psychological $1 trillion mark and, more importantly, cautiously optimistic after a new round of negative remarks from regulators.

*Total crypto market cap in USD, 12-hour. Source: TradingView*

As displayed above, the ascending channel initiated in mid-January has room for an additional 3.5% correction down to $1.025 trillion market capitalization while still sustaining the bullish formation.

That is excellent news considering the FUD — fear, uncertainty and doubt — brought down by regulators regarding the cryptocurrency industry.

Recent examples of bad news are, a United States District Court judge ruling that emojis such as the rocket ship, stock chart and money bags infer "a financial return on investment," according to a recent court filing. On Feb. 22, a federal court judge ruling on a case against Dapper Labs denied a motion to dismiss the complaint alleging that its NBA Top Shot Moments violated security laws by using such emojis to denote profit.

Outside of the U.S., on Feb. 23, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued guidance on how countries should treat crypto assets, strongly advising against giving Bitcoin a legal tender status. The paper stated, "while the supposed potential benefits from crypto assets have yet to materialize, significant risks have emerged."

IMF directors added that "the widespread adoption of crypto assets could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy, circumvent capital flow management measures, and exacerbate fiscal risks." In short, those policy guidelines created additional FUD that caused investors to rethink their exposure to the cryptocurrency sector.

The 5.5% weekly decline in total market capitalization since Feb. 20 was driven by the 6.3% loss from Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether's (ETH) 4.6% price decline. Consequently, the correction in altcoins was even more robust, with 9 out of the top 80 cryptocurrencies down by 15% or more in 7 days.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Messari*

Stacks (STX) gained 53% after the project announced its v2.1 update to strengthen the connection to Bitcoin-native assets and improve its smart contracts' control.

Optimism (OP) rallied 13% as the protocol released the details of its upcoming superchain network, which focuses on interoperability across blockchains.

Curve (CRV) traded down 21% after an Ethereum security analytics firm suggested verkle trees implementation, which could severely impact Curve Finance's use on the mainnet, according to its team.

Leverage demand is balanced despite the price correction

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Perpetual futures accumulated 7-day funding rate on Feb. 27. Source: Coinglass*

The 7-day funding rate was marginally positive for Bitcoin and Ethereum, thus a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers). The only exception was the slightly higher demand for betting against BNB price, although it is not significant.

The options put/call ratio remains optimistic

Traders can gauge the market's overall sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lags the more bullish calls and is therefore positive. In contrast, a 1.40 indicator favors put options, which can be deemed bearish.

*BTC options volume put-to-call ratio. Source: laevitas.ch*

Apart from a brief moment on Feb. 25 when Bitcoin's price traded down to $22,750, the demand for bullish call options has exceeded the neutral-to-bearish puts since Feb. 14.

The current 0.65 put-to-call volume ratio shows the Bitcoin options market is more strongly populated by neutral-to-bullish strategies, favoring call (buy) options by 58%.

From a derivatives market perspective, bulls are less likely to fear the recent 5.5% decline in total market capitalization. There is little that federal judges or the IMF can do to severely impair investors' belief that they can benefit from decentralized protocols and cryptocurrencies' censorship resistance abilities. Ultimately, derivatives markets have shown resilience, paving the way for further upside.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Treasury Secretary Yellen Urges Swift Action to Increase Spending Limit, Avert Default on US Obligations

January 14, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Indicted FTX Co-Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Discussed ‘Pandemic Prevention’ With Biden Administration Officials

January 4, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below $21K leading in Friday’s options expiry

July 14, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below K leading in Friday’s options expiry

CME

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 opened room for bears to score a $100 million profit in this week’s options expiry.

Most Bitcoin (BTC) traders would rather see a sharp price correction and a subsequent recovery than agonize for multiple months below $24,000. However, BTC has been doing the opposite since June 14 and its most recent struggle is the asset’s failure to break above the $22,000 resistance. For this reason, most traders are holding back their bullish expectations until BTC posts a daily close above $24,000.

Events outside of the crypto market are the primary factor impacting investors' perspectives on digital assets and on July 14, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that inflation is "unacceptably high" and she reinforced the support of the Federal Reserve’s efforts. When questioned about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, Yellen recognized the risk of a recession.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase reported a 28% decline in profits versus the previous year despite recording stable revenues. The difference comes chiefly from a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses because of a "modest deterioration" in its economic outlook.

Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high and investors fear that a potential crisis in the global financial sector will inevitably lead to a retest of the $17,600 low from June 18.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation presently stands at 0.87, which has been the norm for the past four months.

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bitcoin's failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 took bulls by surprise because only 2% of the call (buy) options for July 15 have been placed below $20,000. Thus, Bitcoin bears are slightly better positioned for the $250 million weekly options expiry.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 15. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.15 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $134 million against the $116 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands below $21,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 15, only $25 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number

of options contracts available on July 15 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $18,000 and $19,000: 10 calls vs. 5,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $19,000 and $20,000: 200 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result gives bears a $60 million advantage
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 1,300 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $19,000 on July 15 in order to secure a $100 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best-case scenario requires a push above $20,000 to balance the scales.

The lack of appetite from professional traders in the Bitcoin CME futures indicates that bulls are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario favors bears, and to secure this Bitcoin price only needs to trade below $21,000 going into the July 15 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Yellen Downplays Stimulus Contributing to Inflation, Republicans Grill US Treasury Secretary’s Decisions

June 9, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin and Ethereum had a rough week, but derivatives data reveals a silver lining

May 13, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Asia

BTC, ETH and altcoin prices were crushed this week, but the futures funding rate shows retail traders are not ready to become permabears.

This week the crypto market endured a sharp drop in valuation after Coinbase, the leading U.S. exchange, reported a $430 million quarterly net loss and South Korea announced plans to introduce a 20% tax on crypto gains.

During its worst moment, the total market crypto market cap faced a 39% drop from $1.81 trillion to $1.10 trillion in seven days, which is an impressive correction even for a volatile asset class. A similar size decrease in valuation was last seen in February 2021, creating bargains for the risk-takers.

*Total crypto market capitalization, USD billion. Source: TradingView*

Even with this week’s volatility, there were a few relief bounces as Bitcoin (BTC) bounced 18% from a $25,400 low to the current $30,000 level and Ether (ETH) price also made a brief rally to $2,100 after dropping to a near-year low at $1,700.

Institutional investors bought the dip, according to data from the Purpose Bitcoin ETF. The exchange-traded instrument is listed in Canada and it added 6,903 BTC on May 12, marking the largest single-day buy-in ever registered.

On May 12, the United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the stablecoin market is not a threat to the country’s financial stability. In a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen added:

“They present the same kind of risks that we have known for centuries in connection with bank runs.”

The total crypto capitalization down 19.8% in seven days

The aggregate market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies shrank by 19.8% over the past seven days, and it currently stands at $1.4 trillion. However, some mid-capitalization altcoins were decimated and dropped more than 45% in one week.

Below are the top gainers and losers among the 80 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top-80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Maker (MKR) benefited from the demise of a competing algorithmic stablecoin. While TerraUSD (UST) succumbed to the market downturn, breaking its peg well below $1, Dai (DAI) remained fully functional.

Terra (LUNA) faced an incredible 100% crash after the foundation responsible for administering the ecosystem reserve was forced to sell its Bitcoin position at a loss and issue trillions of LUNA tokens to compensate for its stablecoin breaking below $1.

Fantom (FTM) also faced a one-day 15.3% drop in the total value locked, the amount of FTM coins deposited on the ecosystem’s smart contracts. Fantom has been struggling since prominent Fantom Foundation team members Andre Cronje and Anton Nell resigned from the project.

Tether premium shows trickling demand from retail traders

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium indirectly measures retail trader crypto demand in China. It measures the difference between China-based USDT peer-to-peer trades and the official U.S. dollar currency.

Excessive buying demand puts the indicator above fair value, which is 100%. On the other hand, Tether‘s market offer is flooded during bearish markets, causing a 2% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Currently, the Tether premium stands at 101.3%, which is slightly positive. Furthermore, there has been no panic over the past two weeks. Such data indicate that Asian retail demand is not fading away, which is bullish, considering that the total cryptocurrency capitalization dropped 19.8% over the past seven days.

Altcoin funding rates have also dropped to worrying levels. Perpetual contracts (inverse swaps) have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. These instruments are retail traders‘ preferred derivatives because their price tends to perfectly track regular spot markets.

Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances. A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Seven-day accumulated perpetual futures funding rate. Source: Coinglass*

Notice how the accumulated seven-day funding rate is mostly negative. This data indicates higher leverage from sellers (shorts). As an example, Solana‘s (SOL) negative 0.90% weekly rate equals 3.7% per month, a considerable burden for traders holding futures positions.

However, the two leading cryptocurrencies did not face the same leverage selling pressure, as measured by the accumulated funding rate. Typically, when there‘s an imbalance caused by excessive pessimism, that rate can easily move below negative 3% per month.

The absence of leverage shorts (sellers) in futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum and the modest bullishness from Asian retail traders should be interpreted as extremely healthy, especially after a -19.8% weekly performance.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Yellen