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Bitcoin futures open interest on CME nears 2021 all-time high

December 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The futures positioning on CME shows Bitcoin could still move higher from its current price, says IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest has reached $5.2 billion on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), $200 million shy of its late October 2021 all-time high.

Open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion over the last 30 days, according to Coinglass data.

*CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest reached $5.2 billion on Dec. Source: Coinglass*

From Oct.

The rapid uptick in open interest also coincided with a drastic price jump for Bitcoin, which grew from $45,000 to $66,000.

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph the open interest uptick shows a renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it doesn’t explain how CME traders are positioned.

Sycamore pointed to CME’s Nov. 28 report to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which showed the “big players” on its platform were sitting net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 longs, Sycamore explained.

*Futures positions on CME had been net short as of Nov. Source: CFTC*

Until CME’s latest report comes through on Tuesday, Dec.

“What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long, Sycamore said.

The massive uptick in Bitcoin’s price is being driven by more than just speculation around the SEC’s potential approval of a roster of spot ETF products, Sycamore added.

Spot Bitcoin ETF: Why this time is different

November 21, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Analysis

The latest Cointelegraph Report explains everything you need to know about a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S., its impact on the market, and its significance for the crypto industry.

A wave of optimism around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has ignited bullish price action in the crypto market in recent weeks.

But that could be just the beginning: If a spot Bitcoin ETF receives a greenlight by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it would mark a major milestone in the history of digital assets.

The spot Bitcoin ETF will provide institutional investors with a simple and regulated way to get exposure to Bitcoin with potentially explosive consequences for the Bitcoin market.

According to many analysts, a spot Bitcoin ETF could spark a demand shock that, coupled with next year's Bitcoin halving event, could spark the new crypto bull market.

The SEC has so far rejected all spot Bitcoin ETF applications, but two main factors make the current batch of applications different.

One is the involvement of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, which filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this year.

The second is the court ruling that required the SEC to revisit a previous rejection of Grayscale’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF application, defining the regulator's process as "arbitrary and capricious."

“The Grayscale decision ultimately says that you can't allow Bitcoin futures ETFs to trade, and then argue that the same situation is not for spot Bitcoin ETF," said James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

That is why, according to Seyffart, the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by early January are 90%.

To understand why a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is a big deal and its potential impact on the market, check out the full Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

CME overtakes Binance to grab largest share of Bitcoin futures open interest

November 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Binance

Market analysts weigh in on an intriguing ‘flippening’, as Bitcoin futures open interest on global derivatives marketplace CME overtakes Binance.

Binance’s dominance of Bitcoin futures open interest has been toppled by traditional derivatives market place heavyweight Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), following Bitcoin’s first move past the $37,000 mark in over 18 months.

A number of analysts highlighted the ‘flippening’ of Binance by CME, with the latter overtaking the global cryptocurrency exchange for the largest share of Bitcoin futures open interest.

Wow, the real flippening that no one is talking about:

CME just flipped Binance for the largest share of Bitcoin futures open interest.

Bittersweet -- there will soon be more suits than hoodies here.

(h/t @VidiellaLaura) pic.twitter.com/SIPRLMlFcy
— Will (@WClementeIII) November 9, 2023

Open interest is a concept commonly used in futures and options markets to measure the total number of outstanding contracts. The metric represents the total number of contracts that are held by traders at any given point in time. The difference between the number of contracts that are held by buyers (longs) and the number of contracts held by sellers (shorts) determines open interest.

Bitcoin futures volume and open interest on CME over the past month. Source: CME

Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) research analyst James Seyffart followed up an initial X (formerly Twitter) post from Will Clemente, questioning whether CME’s growing amount of Bitcoin futures open interest would appease the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) historical concerns over the depth of Bitcoin markets and the potential for market manipulation.

Okay this is interesting... Does this constitute 'market of significant size' now? haha https://t.co/eQb7QXvO3H
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 9, 2023

This has long been a point of contention, which has led to the SEC holding back from approving several spot Bitcoin ETF applications over the past few years. The regulator previously told the likes of BlackRock and Fidelity that their filings were “inadequate” due to the omission of declarations relating to the markets in which the Bitcoin ETFs will derive their value.

In July 2023, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) refiled a submission for Bitcoin spot ETFs following feedback from the SEC. Fidelity intends to launch its Bitcoin ETF product on CBOE, while BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, grabbed headlines for its proposed Bitcoin ETF, which is set to be offered on the Nasdaq.

CBOE’s amended filing with the SEC highlighted its efforts to take additional steps to ensure its ability to detect, investigate and deter fraud and market manipulation of shares in the proposed Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust.

“The Exchange is expecting to enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement with Coinbase, an operator of a United States-based spot trading platform for Bitcoin that represents a substantial portion of US-based and USD denominated Bitcoin trading.”

CBOE’s filing adds that the agreement with Coinbase is expected to carry the ‘hallmarks of a surveillance-sharing agreement.’ This will give CBOE supplemental access to Bitcoin trading data on Coinbase.

The stock exchange also added that Kaiko Research data indicated that Coinbase represented roughly 50% of the U.S. dollar to Bitcoin daily trading volume in May 2023. This is pertinent given the SEC’s misgivings over the depth of BTC markets to back ETF products.

A surveillance-sharing agreement is intended to ensure that exchanges and regulators are able to detect whether a market actor is manipulating the value of stocks or shares.

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