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Crypto has survived worse than the fall of FTX: Chainalysis

According to Chainalysis, the downfall of FTX is likely to have a relatively smaller effect on the crypto ecosystem than the demise of Mt. Gox.

Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis has compared the fall of Mt. Gox to FTX to determine how FTX’s bankruptcy will impact the ecosystem.

It concluded that FTX was a relatively smaller part of the crypto industry than Mt. Gox was at the time and that the industry should bounce back stronger than ever.

In a Nov. 23 Twitter thread, Chainalysis’ research lead Eric Jardine began his comparison by first looking at the market share of the two firms, finding that Mt. Gox averaged 46% of all exchange inflows in the year leading up to its collapse in 2014, compared to FTX’s average of 13%, which operated from 2019 to 2022.

Jardine notes in 2014 when Mt. Gox collapsed, that centralized exchanges (CEXes) were the only players in the game, while in late 2022 nearly half of all exchange inflows were captured by decentralized exchanges (DEXes) such as Uniswap and Curve.

Exchange inflows of CEXes compared to DEXes between 2013 to 2022. Source: Chainalysis

Jardine mentions, however, that FTX was slowly gaining in market share while Mt. Gox was seeing theirs steadily decline, and that business trajectories are worth considering, adding:

“Mt. Gox was becoming one exchange among many during a period of growth for the category, taking a smaller share of a bigger pie. FTX on the other hand was taking a bigger share of a shrinking pie, beating out other exchanges even as its raw tx volume declined.”

Despite this, Jardine concluded that Mt. Gox was a “linchpin of the CEX category at a time when CEXes dominated,” making it a bigger part of the crypto ecosystem at the time of its collapse than FTX was.

Jardine then goes on to examine the recovery of the crypto industry after the fall of Mt. Gox and found that while on-chain transaction volume was stagnant for a year or so, activity soon picked back up.

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried says he is ‘deeply sorry’ for collapse in letter to FTX team

In Feb. 2014, Mt. Gox suspended trading, closed its website, and filed for bankruptcy protection after losing 850,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in a hack.

Customers who had holdings deposited on the exchange have still not received their funds back, but the Mt. Gox Trustee announced on Oct. 6 that creditors have until Jan. 10, 2023, to select a repayment method for the 150,000 BTC reportedly in their possession.

Monthly service inflows for crypto before and after Mt. Gox collapsed. Source: Chainalysis

Jardine believes that although there are other factors such as Sam Bankman-Fried’s large public presence, the “comparison should give the industry optimism,” as when it’s boiled down to market fundamentals, “There’s no reason to think the industry can’t bounce back from this, stronger than ever.”

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Vitalik Buterin offers lessons for crypto in wake of the FTX collapse

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the collapse of FTX has illustrated once again that the problem lies in people, not technology.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has spoken out in the wake of the FTX collapse, offering his thoughts and some positives from one of crypto’s biggest black swan events.

In a Nov. 20 Bloomberg interview, Buterin said that the collapse of FTX contains lessons for the entire crypto ecosystem.

He acknowledged that the underlying stability of distributed ledger and the technology powering the crypto asset economy has not come into question. The problem in this instance (and several before it) has been people, not technology.

Buterin also labeled the FTX collapse as a “huge tragedy” but added that it reaffirms the position of many in the Ethereum community concerning centralization:

“That said, many in the Ethereum community also see the situation as a validation of things they believed in all along: centralized anything is by default suspect.”

He added that this ethos includes trusting in open and transparent code above humans. Over the weekend, Buterin posted a guide to having a “safe CEX” with proof of insolvency.

He said rather than relying solely on “fiat methods” such as government licenses, auditors, corporate governance, and background investigations of people running exchanges, the exchanges could create “cryptographic proofs that show that the funds they hold on-chain are enough to cover their liabilities to their users.”

The problems for FTX are understood to have stemmed from the exchange’s use of customer deposits for other purposes. After a large influx of withdrawal requests came to the exchange earlier this month, it found itself unable to meet withdrawal demand with its current liquidity. 

Related: FTX fiasco means coming consequences for crypto in Washington DC

Vitalik Buterin is not the only industry leader recently speaking out about the FTX fallout. On Nov. 17, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that while regulation is necessary, it is more important for industry players to lead by example.

During the Indonesia Fintech Summit 2022, Zhao said the entire FTX saga is likely to have set back the crypto industry by “a few years,” and will likely see regulators scrutinize the industry “much, much harder, which is probably a good thing, to be honest.”

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis

BTC’s price targets now include $12,000, with Ether potentially falling to $800 for the pit of the bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a fresh rejection at $17,000 on Nov. 18 as nervous markets weathered more FTX fallout.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC gets a $12,000 price target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to flip $17,000 to support — a trend in place for almost a week.

The pair, like major altcoins, remained firmly tied down by cold feet over the FTX debacle and its knock-on effects for various crypto businesses.

For analysts, the outlook remained just as grim, with already dismal forecasts worsening in light of recent events.

“This underperformance of all crypto assets is here to stay until the bulk of uncertainly has cleared up — likely only near the turn of the new year,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest circular to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.

In an extensive market summary, QCP wrote that its price forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) now had to drop to reflect the impact of FTX.

Updating a prognosis based on Elliott Wave theory from June, it confirmed BTC/USD now had a target of $12,000 and ETH/USD $800.

“As a side-note, crypto markets have been trading akin to commodities ever since the 2017 top — with extended Wave 5s as the longest wave,” the post added.

“Hence such potential price action with new lows into the new year would be characteristic of previous bear market sell-offs.”

An accompanying chart highlighted the divergence between crypto and stocks in November, with t correlation between them firmly shaken thanks to crypto’s underperformance.

BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD vs. S&P 500 chart. Source: QCP Capital

Popular trader and analyst Cantering Clark, meanwhile, noted that if the current bear market in risk assets were to copy the global financial crisis, heavy losses were still to come.

“The Lehman bankruptcy was the climax of the 2008 financial crisis. It was bottom material qualitatively, but the market paused and then committed to 40% lower,” part of a tweet read.

“Never say never, and don’t let your guard down.”
S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Cantering Clark/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, $13,500 has also become a popular downside target.

Crypto pie “being cut massively”

Continuing, QCP also voiced concerns over declining volumes and open interest (OI) across both centralized (CEXs) and decentralized (DEXs) exchanges.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week

“So far, CEX derivative exchange volumes have been most affected. Combined futures OI is now back to pre-2021 levels, a massive backward step for the industry,” it wrote.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: QCP Capital

On the topic of DEXs, it said the data “implies the entire crypto pie is being cut massively.”

“Overall DeFi TVL is now less than 1/4 last year’s peak!” the post summarized alongside more explanatory charts.

“Even DEXes which would be expected to gain the most, have only seen volumes rise to Jul/Aug levels, even with all the emergency token/stables/chain swapping that needed to be done post-FTX.”
DEX volumes chart. Source: QCP Capital

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Believes Decentralization Is Part of a ‘Gradient Scale’

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Believes Decentralization Is Part of a ‘Gradient Scale’Changpeng Zhao, founder and CEO of Binance, the biggest cryptocurrency exchange by volumes traded, pondered the importance of decentralization and the relation it has with security and freedom. Zhao stated that there are several aspects of decentralization and that this is part of a gradient scale, explaining the different ways in which even Bitcoin can […]

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Makes 10-Year Prediction for Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Makes 10-Year Prediction for Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

The chief executive of the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume predicts that decentralized finance (DeFi) and decentralized exchange platforms (DEXes) will outshine their centralized counterparts in the long term. In a new interview on the Bankless YouTube channel, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao predicts that in 10 years, decentralized blockchain projects will tower above […]

The post Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Makes 10-Year Prediction for Decentralized Finance (DeFi) appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Unizen ‘CeDeFi’ smart exchange secures $200M investment from GEM

The alternative investment group is banking on the “CeDeFi exchange” to shape the “future of finance” with a commitment that will bolster Unizen’s ecosystem.

Cryptocurrency exchange Unizen has scored a $200 million investment from private equity group Global Emerging Markets (GEM) which it will use to expand its business and its ecosystem.

Rather than receiving the $200 million in funding all at once, Unizen noted on June 27 that the investment will come in the form of a “capital commitment’, with part of the funding released upfront and the rest will be provided later based on achieved milestones.

Unizen did not disclose what particular criteria it had to achieve to receive the funding.

Unizen calls itself a “CeDeFi” exchange mixing features of both centralized exchanges (CEXs) and decentralized exchanges (DEXs), it runs on the BNB Chain, formerly called the Binance Smart Chain. It aims to attract both retail and institutional investors by finding and aggregating the most cost-efficient trades across CEX’s such as Binance and DEX’s like Uniswap.

GEM is described as a $3.4 billion alternative investment group that focuses on emerging markets, it selected Unizen with the aim to “have a hand in technology that will shape the future of finance.”

Unizen stated that it will use the investment to expand its team, shore up its innovation and marketing pipeline, and speed up the implementation of its trade aggregation ecosystem, also hinting at an upcoming investor token release update for early July though no further details were provided.

Related: Crypto brokerage FalconX raises $150M at $8B valuation

Another arm of Unizen is its ZenX Labs business, a CeDeFi incubator aimed at investing in and supporting decentralized projects by providing technical expertise and assisting with compliance.

ZenX Labs most recently said it was building and launching a small satellite into orbit aboard a SpaceX rocket with the mission funded by entirely by Dogecoin (DOGE), it is expected to launch sometime this year.

For GEM, it’s another investment into a blockchain-related business. In May through its digital asset investment firm GEM Digital Limited, it provided $400 million in funding to KaJ Labs to develop ‘Lithosphere’, a platform for cross-chain decentralized applications powered by artificial intelligence.

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Uniswap breaks $1T in volume — but has only been used by 3.9M addresses

Uniswap has hit two major milestones this month, with the DEX topping $1 trillion in volume and hitting around 3.9 million cumulative users this month.

Decentralized exchange (DEX) Uniswap has topped $1 trillion in total trading volume since launching on Ethereum in late 2018.

That comes from a relatively small user base however, indicating there is a lot of potential growth to come. According to data from Uniswap Labs, which are major contributors to the development of the protocol and ecosystem, the DEX’s number of cumulative addresses hit around 3.9 million this month after just over three years.

The data was posted via Twitter on May 24, with the Uniswap Labs team noting that: “Over the past three years, the Protocol has Onboarded millions of users to the world of DeFi, Introduced fair and permissionless trading, Lowered the barrier to liquidity provision.”

Uniswap is currently supported on Ethereum and layer-2 scaling solutions Polygon, Optimism and Arbitrum. Uniswap Labs also revealed earlier this month that the DEX will be expanding out to two EVM-compatible chains in Gnosis Chain, and Polkadot-based para-chain Moonbeam Network.

In terms of trade volume Uniswap ranks well ahead of its competition in the DEX market. Data from CoinGecko shows that Uniswap’s V3 protocol generated $938 million worth of volume over the past 24 hours, representing 33% of the total market share.

In comparison, Binance Smart Chain-based PancakeSwap (v2) ranks second with $491 million and 17.3% of the market share.

When comparing Uniswaps’s 24 data with centralized exchanges (CEXs), its $938 million worth of volume places it well behind platforms such as Binance, FTX and Coinbase which generated $12.2 billion, $1.95 billion and $1.79 billion apiece.

Notably however, the DEX is well ahead of some big players in the crypto sector such as Crypto.com and Kraken which generated $724.9 million and $597.4 million each.

Uniswap has also amassed roughly $5.93 billion worth of total value locked (TVL), the fifth-largest sum in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector according to DeFi Llama, while PancakeSwap ranks seventh with $4.27 billion worth of TVL. MakerDAO represents the largest platform with $9.82 billion in TVL.

Related: Uniswap launches venture capital wing for Web3 investments

Despite Uniswap’s ability to attract strong demand and liquidity, it hasn’t done much to sway the price of its native asset UNI in 2022. Since the start of January, UNI has dropped around 67% to sit at $5.59 at the time of writing.

UNI’s all-time high of $44.92 was also back in early May 2021, and is down 87.5% since then.

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Leading centralized exchanges extend market share in 2022

The “top-tier” exchanges as ranked in a report by CryptoCompare increased their market share to 96% in February 2022.

The top centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have reached all-time highs for market share this year as trading volume in crypto consolidates onto the platforms of only a few trusted companies.

So named “top-tier” crypto exchanges have increased their market share from 89% in August 2021 to 96% in February 2022 according to data collected by UK analytics company CryptoCompare published on Monday, April 11.

The firm analyzed over 150 active centralized exchanges, ranking them on security, number of assets available, regulatory compliance, KYC checks, and more, grading them from a top score of AA to a low of F with “top tier” receiving a grade B or above.

A total of 78 exchanges received a “top tier” grade, with Coinbase, Gemini, Bitstamp, and Binance the only four to receive the highest AA grading.

The report revealed that top-tier exchanges traded a total of $1.5 trillion in February 2022 compared to $62 billion in the “lower-tier” exchanges. This is a metric that CryptoCompare claims show “both retail and professional traders are moving to lower risk exchanges.”

Consolidation of exchanges has happened through both exchange closures and acquisitions from other, larger exchanges. Top crypto exchanges eyeing overseas expansion sometimes acquire already licensed, smaller exchanges operating in the country of interest, as was the case with FTX’s acquisition of the Japanese Liquid Group exchange on February 2nd, 2022.

Related: Coinbase to increase transparency on potential 2022 listings

The firm reported that since June 2019, 54 exchanges have closed due to being uncompetitive in the market which has caused further consolidation of users to top-ranking exchanges. Additionally, China’s crackdown on crypto saw 6 Chinese-based exchanges close with the analysts adding:

“As we have seen, volumes have started to become concentrated amongst the top tier exchanges, and this is a trend which is bound to continue into the future. As the industry matures, we expect there to be an oligopoly of exchanges dominating trading volumes as their traction accelerates and smaller players are left behind.”

The report surfaced some challenges which lay ahead for the cryptocurrency exchange industry, highlighting the political pressure put on exchanges to enforce Russian sanctions as an area that could see more action.

“While many exchanges have resisted this pressure,” the analysts wrote, “this political factor is an important risk to consider for the future of exchanges.”

The movement of crypto users that prefer self-custody of assets was also an issue flagged in the report. “The mantra of ‘not your keys, not your coins’ is growing stronger amid the political pressure received by exchanges,” the report states, before adding it is a “movement that could hinder the business model of exchanges.”

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto

Automated order books eliminate DeFi costs and match CEX capability

DeFi may eliminate the middleman, but this was often at the expense of costly transactions and reduced functionality.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) industry continues to reach unprecedented highs, with daily volume of transactions increasing on a regular basis. Unfortunately, in spite of the billions of funds currently being crossed back and forth, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are filled with apparent and invisible costs that are a hindrance to market activity.

Consequently, the future of DeFi requires eliminating the high transaction costs and limited functionality often associated with traditional DEXs. Among them is slippage, the price difference between a cryptocurrency’s quote price and the trader’s actual paid price. This is in addition to limited liquidity, expensive gas costs, lack of control over execution price, and the risk of front-running, which is done by malicious traders placing a transaction ahead of a trader based on insider knowledge of their future trade. Solving these concerns means DeFi could achieve parity to centralized exchanges (CEX), while removing the need for middlemen.

For example, with regards to the order book functionality: centralized trading platforms typically sort limit orders by price, from the highest to the lowest. The order book of BTC/USD trades, to name an example pair, will contain all the purchase and sale orders that have been placed on the exchange at different (limit) prices.

At the top of the book, users can find the highest bid for BTC, and at the bottom, the lowest ask prices; the middle of the book, where bids are closer to asks, will help determine the point at which a new market order will be executed. Slippage occurs when a market trade is larger than the amount available at the first level of the order book, or also when the bid and ask prices change before the exchange can execute the market order. Slippage essentially means the trader pays more than expected for their order.

Currently, all DEXs on DeFi only support market or spot orders, meaning when a trader swaps, they are at the mercy of market conditions, a factor completely out of their control. In DeFi, this concern is increasingly prominent given the sometimes extreme volatility in the market.

To mitigate the impact of volatility, investors using centralized exchanges will often execute a limit order, where the required target price is pre-set as a condition for the trade. The larger the size, the greater the benefit of a limit order compared to a market order. Unfortunately, executing a trade of this type was previously not possible in a decentralized environment.

From human-driven to automated

DeFi platforms currently offer primarily market order functionality, without order books or limit order capability. Much to users' surprise, “limit orders” offered by DeFi platforms are simply executed as delayed market orders, with all the associated costs and implied inefficiency. Whereas limit orders are the pillar of centralized exchanges, attracting significant human work to enter and execute them, they have been missing in decentralized exchanges.

The appeal of DeFi is to democratize market-making on the blockchain so that any user can provide their own liquidity and let anyone else submit a buy or sell order through automated smart contract-operated trading networks, which ensure any trader can participate fairly. However, letting traders specify their target price while avoiding slippage and other costs has been a challenge in DeFi until now. 

Try as they might, DeFi platforms have typically only provided basic automation through smart contracts.  DEXs line up buy and sell orders, match and resolve trades, only failing to deliver on the experience users have come to expect on a centralized exchange when it comes to liquidity. Therefore, if DeFi ever wants to rise as the alternative to traditional finance, a solution that involves instantaneous order books is needed.

Removing DeFi trading costs for good

By using a DeFi order book, which is fully automated and decentralized, traders can finally avoid the costs of transacting on traditional DEXs. With their patent-pending solution, CivTrade provides a service that enables anyone to access the benefits of DeFi while maintaining equivalence to the functionality found on centralized exchanges like Binance while also boasting zero price impact, zero fees and even paying traders earnings while their order is open.

Using the CivTrade DApp, investors can not only execute market orders but also limit orders at their preferred target price, without any slippage, liquidity fees or other negative price impacts previously found on other DeFi platforms.

This solution supports over 4,000 tokens on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain and 1,000 on Polygon (MATIC), and eight wallet providers; whatever their preferred pair or price, traders have complete confidence that each trade is centered at the exact target price thanks to CivTrade’s implementation using a one-sided liquidity pool for each transaction. This not only eliminates costs but also pays liquidity fees to traders. As a result of the carefully crafted system design, the DApp already has $10 million traded, including an average gain of $1,820 per transaction compared to using a centralized exchange or other DeFi platforms. 

In the words of the Civilization team, “DeFi is the future, and CivTrade permanently removes the need for any market-making or OTC desks. By automating the order matching process with a scalable, anonymous solution at zero cost for traders, CivTrade marks the turning point wherein DeFi anyone can finally achieve anything a trading centralized exchange used to offer, but better, faster and cheaper.”

The team has since introduced CivTrade ProView, with the ability to turn DEX data into actionable insights, in what the team can only describe as an engineering “mini-miracle.” With ProView, users can unlock the benefits of an automated order book, interactive charts and order execution on the live page.

CivTrade is only the first of the products planned by Civilization. Future projects include CivFarm and CivFund, both of which will further improve the accessibility of DeFi.

Learn more about Civilization

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you with all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor can this article be considered as investment advice.

‘$600M Would Buy a Lot of Bitcoin’: Microstrategy Boss Steers Bezos Wedding Drama Toward Crypto