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Fighting the crypto winter and token protocol inflation in 2022

Where can one safely store digital assets, earn crypto rewards and trade coins intermittently, while the market continues to see a sea of red?

There is an old saying, “cash is king,” but if it is sitting in a bank account or, in the case of crypto — a wallet, it diminishes daily due to inflation. This is especially the case now as inflation in the United States breaks its 40-year record. While the dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) strategy allows an investor to minimize the effects of volatility by purchasing an unstable asset in time intervals, inflation still causes a decrease in a target asset’s value over time. 

For instance, Solana (SOL) has a pre-set protocol inflation rate of 8%, and if the yield is not generated through farming or utilizing decentralized finance (DeFi), one’s holdings are depreciating at a rate of 8% per year.

However, despite the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) increasing by 17.3% in a year, as of July 13, 2022, the hopes of receiving significant returns in the bull market are still pushing investors to engage with volatile assets.

In the upcoming “Blockchain Adoption and Use Cases: Finding Solutions in Surprising Ways” report, Cointelegraph Research will dig deeper into different solutions that will help to resist inflation in the bear market.

Download and purchase reports on the Cointelegraph Research Terminal.

Crypto winter is a period where anxiety, panic and depression start to burden investors. However, many crypto cycles have proven that real value capture can be attained during a bear market. For many, the current sentiment is that “buying and holding,” combined with DCA, may be one of the best investment strategies during a crypto winter.

In most cases, investors abstain from outright investment and amass capital to purchase assets when the macro condition improves. However, timing the market is challenging and is only feasible for active daily traders. In contrast, the average retail investor carries higher risks and is more vulnerable to losses coming from rapid market changes.

Where to go?

In the midst of various calamities in the crypto universe, placing assets in staking nodes on-chain, locking in liquidity pools or generating yield through centralized exchanges all come with a hefty amount of risk. Given those uncertainties, the big question remains whether it’s best to just buy and hodl.

Anchor Protocol, Celsius and other yield platforms have recently demonstrated that if the foundation of yield generation is poorly backed by the tokenomics model or the platform’s investment decisions, too-good-to-be-true yields may be replaced by a wave of liquidations. Generating yield on idle digital assets via centralized or decentralized finance protocols with robust risk management, liquid rewards and yield offerings that are not too aggressive is probably the least risky pathway for fighting inflation.

Both DeFi and centralized finance (CeFi) protocols can offer varying levels of yields for identical digital assets. With DeFi protocols, the risk of lock-ups to generate marginal yield is yet another major factor, as it limits an investor’s ability to react quickly should the market adversely change. Moreover, strategies may carry additional risks. For instance, Lido liquid staking with stETH derivative contracts is vulnerable to price divergence from the underlying asset

Although CeFi such as Gemini and Coinbase, unlike multiple other such platforms, have demonstrated prudent user fund management with transparency, yield offerings on digital assets are insignificant. While staying within the risk management framework and not taking aggressive risks with the user’s funds is beneficial, the returns are relatively low.

While keeping a buying discipline within the DCA framework and doing research are crucial, finding a low-risk solution generating substantial yields may be tricky. Meanwhile, a new crypto market cycle is set to bring developments that will hopefully bring novel solutions, attractive in both risk and returns. Cointelegraph Research evaluates multiple platforms and assesses the sustainability of current DeFi and CeFi yields in its upcoming report.

This article is for information purposes only and represents neither investment advice nor an investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual investment or other advice.

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June gloom takes on a new meaning in another 2022 down month

The addresses mainly run by active human traders have notched more than 147,000 addresses for the first time since November.

The market cap of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped another 33% in June, which is now beginning to numb the Twitter community. On the upside, many crypto traders who wanted out did so fairly aggressively from March to May. But, the less optimistic news is that the stagnancy in address activity may need to change for prices to get a running start on recovery.

Unlike April and May, the altcoin pack didn’t struggle tremendously more than Bitcoin. BTC’s 33% drop was pretty middle of the road in terms of corrections. In a vacuum, crypto bulls would prefer seeing altcoins continuing to lag, pushing more traders back toward Bitcoin as a relative “safe haven.”

Nevertheless, June was a tale of two halves. June 1-15 saw a massive 25% further downswing for Bitcoin. Comparatively, June 16-30 was looking up until the very end of the month, which now exhibits an additional 8% slide.

The $20,000 price level has shown to be both psychological support and resistance area. Therefore, a drop below (which could very well occur by the time this article is published) may quickly change traders’ outlook. Panic selling and overly eager buying should occur as soon as the $19,500 to $19,900 range is hit.

Social dominance has returned to Bitcoin and away from altcoins

So far, 2022 has served as a reality check for altcoins whose market caps have ballooned to astronomic levels in the past two years. As mentioned, Bitcoin was nothing special compared to alts in June, but it has held up better than most projects and even a few stablecoins. As a result, the spotlight shines bright on Bitcoin, as evidenced by a healthy community focus.

This phenomenon was reflected in the whole last week of June. Bitcoin was mentioned on Santiment’s social platforms at its highest rate in about four months, while the discussion around other popular assets like Ether (ETH) and Cardano (ADA) continues to diminish.

Trading returns still point to a major undervaluation of Bitcoin and most altcoins

The average 30-day trading returns on the BTC network are still very negative. And, as long they are in the yellow-green or green territory in the below chart, there is less risk in entering a Bitcoin position (or adding on to) than historical results.

Price freefalls tend to reverse if they go into the extreme low (green) territory, and that would be the ideal setup to watch for on Sanbase.

The number of whale addresses is growing rapidly

Another positive note for patient crypto hodlers, regardless of the asset, is that more and more Bitcoin shark and whale addresses are returning to the network. The addresses, mainly run by active human traders, sized 10 to 10,000 BTC, have over 147,000 addresses for the first time since November. Meanwhile, the very top-tier addresses owned primarily by exchanges (10,000 or more) showed over 100 addresses for the first time since December 2020.

And, speaking of supply moving on and off-exchange addresses, the overall trend shows BTC continuing to move away from exchanges after a brief worrisome rise in May. Now, well below 10% of coins sitting on exchanges, there is far less selloff risk (based on historical trends). And, to add to this, the amount of Tether (USDT) moving to exchanges has skyrocketed, implying more buying power at these suppressed prices.

Ethereum seeing far more negativity than any other large-cap asset

Not to be ignored, Ethereum has had a well-documented 76% retracement since its all-time high in November. When looking at the ratio of positive vs. negative commentary being scraped by our social data algorithm, there appears to be a stunning dropoff in positive comments in early June. The 37% price drop between June 9 and 13 was the culprit and the last straw for many traders. As counterintuitive as it may seem, these “last straws” is what the community at Santiment expects to see for the market to stage a comeback.

Cardano is also seeing the equivalent of slowly rolling tumbleweeds around its network. The number of unique addresses interacting on the Cardano network is down to its lowest in about a year. The sentiment is gradually sinking for Cardano as well, which is likely due to a simple absence of discussion more than anything.

Traders heading into the second half with extreme skepticism

It is hard for the trading community to find any excitement in the abysmal price performances that continue to persist month after month in 2022. Yet, price surges happen when the mainstream casts the most doubts. Still, nothing is for certain in a sentiment-driven and often self-perpetuating sector like cryptocurrency. But, the more the crypto community is leaning bearish and proclaiming its crypto winter time, the higher the chance of a recovery underway.

Cointelegraph’s Market Insights Newsletter shares our knowledge on the fundamentals that move the digital asset market. This analysis was prepared by leading analytics provider Santiment, a market intelligence platform that provides on-chain, social media and development information on 2,000+ cryptocurrencies.

Santiment develops hundreds of tools, strategies and indicators to help users better understand cryptocurrency market behavior and identify data-driven investment opportunities.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.

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Cointelegraph Research launches venture capital database

A new database from Cointelegraph Research tracks VC activity in the crypto and blockchain industry in unprecedented detail.

Despite the generally negative price action across the crypto industry, continued venture capital investments in the space indicate that the industry is healthy and continues to evolve. Cointelegraph Research’s new venture capital database tracks the activity of VC firms and gives users access to the most important bellwether of innovation and early-stage activity.

Macroeconomic factors have been strangling the crypto economy over the past few weeks and are stoking fears of a prolonged downturn. After the United States Federal Reserve announced it would hike interest rates by 50 basis points, crypto prices went into freefall. Then on May 9, a black swan event affected the Terra ecosystem and wider space when the algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) lost its one-to-one peg to the U.S. dollar.

Nonetheless, VC investment in the industry appears to continue undisturbed. So far, Q2 2022 has seen $6.8 billion in venture capital investment. This number may remain on track to match the uptick seen in the previous quarter.

Yet, this should not be taken as an indicator of imminent recovery across the crypto market. VC investments and returns have historically shown extraordinarily weak correlations with both crypto and traditional assets. Depending on the funding stage, it can take years for companies receiving investments to break even, despite the outsized annualized returns that blockchain venture capitalists have achieved recently.

VC investors are in it for the long term when funding a project, and private equity investment does not strongly affect the price movements of publicly traded assets. Instead, activity by VC actors should be taken as a long-term indicator of the level of innovation in the space. Continued investment in startups working on Web3, decentralized finance (DeFi), infrastructure and nonfungible tokens (NFTs) proves that the blockchain industry is still a young, dynamic space — one that is rapidly evolving to adapt to technical challenges.

Cointelegraph Research has put together an industry-leading database that documents this development. It keeps track of all publicly announced VC funding rounds and contains over 5,000 records of venture capital deals in blockchain made over the past 10 years.

Purchase the VC database on the Cointelegraph Research Terminal

Not only does this data provide valuable insight into the level of innovation and future potential of the space, but it also gives early cues regarding potential projects to invest in. VC investors have a nose for promising technologies and are known for spotting auspicious projects long before their coin pumps and hits the mainstream news.

Occasional triple-digit annualized returns are solid evidence of this. To start exploring the darlings of private equity and take advantage of our extensive database of deals, visit the Cointelegraph Research Terminal. The VC database is available for preview and purchase alongside cutting-edge industry reports on DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, mining and more.

Some of the notable VC deals that have already taken place this quarter include Indian crypto trading platform CoinDCX raising $135 million in a Series D funding round, with significant contributions from Pantera Capital and Steadview. 

Stablecoin issuer Circle, which backs USD Coin (USDC), closed a round for $400 million after partnering with big names from traditional finance. In late April, Near Protocol — an up-and-coming carbon-neutral smart contract blockchain that integrates with Ethereum, Polkadot and Cosmos — raised $350 million for its ecosystem. There are no strong signs that VC activity is slowing, which indicates that despite the current price uncertainty, the crypto space may not face an innovation winter.

This article is for information purposes only and represents neither investment advice nor an investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual investment or other advice.

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How will Sora’s price perform after the launch of Polkaswap?

Polkaswap leads the race to become the first decentralized exchange for Polkadot-based digital assets.

In a recent investment thesis on the coin Sora (XOR), the Cointelegraph Research team explored the current state of the DeFi industry, highlighting the biggest challenges that the industry is facing right now. The two largest problems are scalability and the segregation of multiple blockchains that exist independently and cannot share information between one another. The Polkadot project tries to solve both these bottlenecks by offering cross-blockchain transfers of any type of asset. They also provide transactional scalability by spreading transactions and validation across multiple parallel blockchains.

Download the full investment thesis on SORA (XOR) here.

Polkadot aims to ameliorate two pivotal elements of the DeFi economy, namely automated market makers and decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges. A connection to Polkadot through the SORA Network allows the new Polkaswap decentralized exchange (DEX) to feature much higher transaction output compared to its rivals while maintaining reasonable transaction fees. As of March 22, Ethereum’s largest DEX Uniswap registered $1.08 billion in daily trading volume while Binance Smart Chain’s largest DEX Pancake swap registered $860 million. One of the largest centralized exchanges, Coinbase, registered $1.7 billion. There is definitely demand for trading infrastructure, and Polkaswap is likely to gain traction as Polkadot’s main DEX.

The Sora project is not limited to just another blockchain in the Polkadot ecosystem, however. Rather it sets up the ambitious goal of becoming a supranational monetary system that will compete with contemporary governmental monetary systems. In order for that to be possible, Sora will require mainstream adoption for its XOR coin as a means of payment. Instead of being a stablecoin that is pegged to a fiat currency’s value, Sora’s price is determined by an elastic supply controlled by a smart contract. This means that when the price of the XOR token goes up and reaches some critical level, buyers can purchase newly issued tokens directly from the “Buy” smart contract rather than through the secondary market from the circulating supply held by existing holders. Conversely, if the price drops, then users can sell the tokens to the “Sell” smart contract. This algorithm regulates the number of tokens in circulation, and therefore reduces price volatility.

Furthermore, the XOR bonding curve is different from ones used by other DeFi projects, since instead of over-collateralization, such as 150%, the XOR bonding curve is at close to 100%; it is fully collateralized by the assets used to buy XOR from the smart contract. At the same time, it is not a loan, because when XOR is purchased, the asset that served as a payment is given away. Therefore, the XOR bonding curve smart contract does not inflate the money base nor does the XOR buyer risk collateral depreciation or liquidations as is the case with the digital assets locked up in DAI collateralized debt positions.

To learn more about the SORA network and the two other coins in this network, PSWAP and VAL, download the report to get the full scoop.

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