Conflux

Altcoin prices have crumbled since BTC’s sharp pullback, but BNB, ADA, XMR and TON could be the first to bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) is on target to finish the week with a sharp fall of around 9%. This suggests that some traders may be booking profits in fear of a resumption of the downtrend. Analysts expect Bitcoin to reach the $26,600 to $25,000 zone where buying interest may pick up.

When an asset emerges from a bear market, it tries to form higher lows on the way up. These levels act as strong supports during subsequent corrections. The current pullback could end up forming a higher floor for Bitcoin, which may act as a launch pad for the next rally.

If long-term investors believe that a bottom has been made, then panicking and selling on every corrective phase is not a good strategy. Rather, every dip could be an opportunity to build a portfolio.

The correction in Bitcoin has pulled several altcoins lower. Only a handful of major cryptocurrencies are holding out and looking strong on the charts. Let’s study the charts of five cryptocurrencies that may outperform on the way up.

Bitcoin price analysis

Buyers are trying to arrest Bitcoin’s correction at the 50-day simple moving average ($26,983) but the shallow bounce suggests that the bears are not willing to give up.

The 20-day exponential moving average ($28,606) has started to turn down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative zone signaling that bears have a slight edge. The selling could pick up further if the 50-day SMA cracks.

The BTC/USDT pair could then tumble to the breakout level of $25,250. This is an important level to keep an eye on because if this support crumbles, the pair may plunge to $20,000.

Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal a comeback. That could attract buying and push the price toward the $31,000 to $32,500 resistance zone.

The pair bounced off $27,125 and reached the 20-EMA. This is the first hurdle that the bulls need to cross to start a strong recovery. The pair may then reach the 50-SMA where the bears will again try to mount a strong defense.

If the price turns down from the current level and slides below $27,125, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every minor rally. That will increase the likelihood of a fall to $26,500 and eventually to $25,250.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. Sellers are active above $338 while the bulls are fiercely defending the 50-day SMA ($316).

The BNB/USDT pair rebounded off the 50-day SMA on April 21 and the bulls are attempting to clear the hurdle at $338. If they succeed, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above $346. The pair may then soar toward $400. The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA ($325) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have a slight edge.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to yank the price back below the 50-day SMA. That could accelerate selling and sink the pair to $300 and thereafter toward $280.

The 4-hour chart shows that the price rebounded off the support near $316 and has reached the 50-SMA. If bulls overcome this obstacle, the pair will try to rise to $338 and subsequently to $346. A break above this level could witness a pick-up in bullish momentum.

The first support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If this support gives way, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $315 and $335 for some time. The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if the $315 support gives way.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) turned down and plunged back below the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern on April 20. This indicates that the bears are trying to trap the aggressive bulls. A minor positive in favor of the buyers is that they are trying to guard the 50-day SMA ($0.37).

The 20-day EMA ($0.40) has turned down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that sellers are trying to seize control. If the price plummets below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bears are in the driver’s seat. The ADA/USDT pair could then collapse to $0.30.

Conversely, if buyers want to retain their supremacy, they will have to quickly thrust the price back above the neckline. If they manage to do that, the pair could witness solid buying. The pair may then surge to $0.46.

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears pulled the price below the uptrend line and are trying to flip the level into resistance on a retest. The downsloping 20-EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the price slips below $0.38, the selling could intensify and the pair may plunge to $0.34.

This negative view will invalidate in the near term if buyers propel the price back above the uptrend line. Such a move will suggest that the recent breakdown may have been a bear trap. The recovery is likely to pick up momentum after buyers push the price above the 50-SMA.

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Monero price analysis

Monero (XMR) turned down from the neckline of the developing inverse H&S pattern but the sharp recovery from lower levels indicates aggressive buying on dips.

Buyers have pushed the price back above the 20-day EMA ($157) and will again try to challenge the neckline. If this level is scaled, it will complete the bullish setup, clearing the path for a potential rise to $185 and thereafter to the pattern target of $199.

If the price turns down from the current level or the neckline, it will signal that bears are selling on rallies. A break and close below $149 will signal that bears have seized control. The XMR/USDT pair may then slump to $145 and later to $140.

The pair is trading inside a descending channel pattern on the 4-hour chart. The snapback from the support line of the channel shows solid buying at lower levels. If buyers sustain the price above the 50-SMA, the pair could rally to the resistance line of the channel.

Contrarily, if the price continues lower and slides below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for some more time. The bears will gain the upper hand on a break below the channel.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) has formed a bearish descending triangle pattern but a positive sign in favor of the buyers is that the price has been trading near the resistance line of the triangle for the past few days.

The bulls will try to drive and sustain the price above the resistance line, which will invalidate the bearish setup. A breakdown of a negative pattern usually results in an up-move because aggressive traders who may have gone short in anticipation of a decline cover their positions.

Additionally, bullish traders who have been sitting on the sidelines due to the negative setup jump in to buy. Above the resistance line, the TON/USDT pair could rally to $2.64 and thereafter to $2.90.

This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below $2.20.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is rising inside an ascending channel pattern. In the near term, the bears are trying to protect the $2.33 level but the bulls continue to attack the level with vigor.

If the $2.33 level gives way, the pair may start its journey toward the resistance line of the channel near $2.45. Alternatively, if the price once again turns down from $2.33, the bears will try to sink the pair to the support line of the channel.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

BTC’s tight trading range hints at an eventual breakout, and ADA, XLM, AAVE and CFX could follow.

The long weekend has not produced any fireworks in Bitcoin (BTC) price, which continues to trade inside an ever-narrowing range. Bitcoin is on track to form a third consecutive Doji candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This suggests that the Bitcoin bulls and the bears are not clear about the next directional move.

It is not only Bitcoin that is stuck inside a range. On April 7, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity Investments, tweeted that the S&P 500 Index had been stuck inside a range for the past nine months and a breakout was due “sooner or later.”

Bitcoin’s failure to break above the $30,000 level has attracted profit-booking in several altcoins but a few have witnessed shallow pullbacks. This indicates that traders are holding on to their positions expecting a move higher.

Let’s study the charts of select altcoins that may turn up and start an uptrend if Bitcoin breaks out to the upside. What are the resistance levels above which these five cryptocurrencies turn bullish?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has been trading inside a tight range for the past two days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. Usually, tight ranges are followed by an expansion in volatility.

The 20-day exponential moving average ($27,500) is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) has gradually been slipping toward the center. This suggests a balance between supply and demand.

If the price tumbles below the 20-day EMA, several short-term stop losses may be triggered and the BTC/USDT pair may dive to the breakout level of $25,250.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips. A rally above $29,200 could enhance the prospects of a rally to $30,000 and subsequently to $32,500.

The 20-EMA is flattening out on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This does not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. This uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long and a directional move could soon start. However, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.

Therefore, it is better to wait for the breakout to happen before establishing directional bets. The important level to watch on the upside is $29,200 and on the downside is $26,500. A breach of either level could start a short-term trending move.

Cardano price analysis

The bulls are not allowing Cardano (ADA) to dip below the 20-day EMA ($0.37), indicating demand at lower levels.

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive area suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The ADA/USDT pair could first rise to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. A break and close above this resistance will signal a potential trend change. The pair could then rally toward the pattern target of $0.60.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly yank the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then drop to the 200-day simple moving average ($0.35) and later to $0.30.

The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have pushed the price above the 20-EMA and will next try to overcome the barrier at the downtrend line. If they do that, it will suggest that the pullback may be over. The pair may then climb to the neckline where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

Contrarily, if the price faces rejection at the downtrend line, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The selling could accelerate below $0.37 and the pair may plunge to the 200-SMA.

Stellar price analysis

Stellar (XLM) turned down from the overhead resistance of $0.12 and the price is nearing the 20-day EMA ($0.10). The bulls are likely to buy the dips to the 20-day EMA.

If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle. If they succeed, the XLM/USDT pair will complete a bullish rounding bottom pattern. That could signal the start of a new up-move. The pair may first rally to $0.15 and thereafter march toward the pattern target of $0.17.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then drop to the 200-day SMA ($0.09). This is a make-or-break level for the bulls because if it cracks, the pair may plummet to $0.07.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair is correcting inside a falling wedge pattern. The price has bounced off the support line and the bulls will next attempt to propel the pair above the wedge. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $0.11 and subsequently to $0.12.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and plummets below the support line, it will suggest that the selling has intensified. There is a small support at $0.10 but if that cracks, the decline could extend to the 200-SMA.

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Aave price analysis

Aave (AAVE) has turned down from the overhead resistance of $82, indicating that the bears are fiercely protecting this level. They have pulled the price below the immediate support at the 20-day EMA ($75).

The AAVE/USDT pair could next slip to the 200-day SMA ($73), which is close to the uptrend line. Buyers are likely to defend this level with vigor. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach $82.

If bulls overcome this barrier, the pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern. This setup has a target objective of $100. This bullish view will invalidate if the price continues lower and breaks below the uptrend line. The pair may then slide to $68 and later to $64.

The bears have pulled the price to the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart. The 20-EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand.

If the 200-SMA gives way, the pair could decline further to the uptrend line. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it will further strengthen the bears.

On the upside, a break above the 20-EMA will be the first sign that the bulls are making a comeback. The pair may then rise to the overhead resistance at $82.

CFX price analysis

Conflux (CFX) has been in a corrective phase for the past few days but a minor positive is that the bulls are trying to defend the 20-day EMA ($0.36).

If the price rebounds off the current level, the CFX/USDT pair could reach the downtrend line. This is an important level for the bears to guard because a break above it could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.44 and then $0.49.

Conversely, if the price plunges and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls may be rushing to the exit. That could attract further selling, pulling the price toward the next support at $0.30. The bulls are expected to buy the dips to this level.

The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are trying to keep the price below the 20-EMA. That could pull the pair to the 200-SMA, which is likely to act as a major support.

If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to drive the price to the downtrend line. This is the key level to keep an eye on because a break above it will signal that bulls are back in the game.

On the downside, a break and close below the $0.30 support could attract further selling, sinking the price to $0.25.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.