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3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is down, but which dips are the ones to buy? Here are three metrics savvy investors use to determine when to buy BTC.

Buying low and selling high is easier said than done, especially when emotion and volatile markets are thrown into the mix. Historically speaking, the best deals are to be found when there is “blood on the streets,” but the danger of catching a falling knife usually keeps most investors planted on the sidelines.

The month of May has been especially challenging for crypto holders because Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a low of $26,782, and some analysts are now predicting a sub-$20,000 BTC price in the near future. It’s times like these when fear is running rampant that the contrarian investor looks to establish positions in promising assets before the broader market comes to its senses.

Here’s a look at several indicators that contrarian-minded investors can use to spot opportune moments for opening positions ahead of the next marketwide rally.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed index is a well-known measure of market sentiment that most investors use to crowd-forecast the near future of the market. If viewed purely at face value, an “extreme fear” reading, such as the current sentiment, is meant to signal to stay out of the market and preserve capital.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

The index can actually be used as a market indicator, a point noted by analysts at the cryptocurrency intelligence firm Jarvis Labs.

One of the biggest factors that can help the index rise is an increase in price. Jarvis Labs backtested the idea of buying when the index falls below a certain threshold and then selling when it reaches a predetermined high.

For this test, an index score of 10 was chosen for the low threshold, while scores of 35, 50 and 65 were chosen as sell points.

Fear & Greed returns for BTC. Source: Jarvis Labs

When this method was backtested, results showed that the shorter time-frame option of selling once the index surpassed 35, as represented by the yellow line in the chart above, provided the best results. This method provided an annual average return of 14.6% and a cumulative return of 133.4%.

On May 10, the index hit 10 and continued to register a score of 10 or below on six of the 17 days that followed, with the lowest score of 8 happening on May 17.

While it’s possible the market will still head lower in the near term, history indicates that both the price and the index will eventually rise above their current levels, presenting a potential investment opportunity for contrarian traders.

Whale wallet accumulation

Following Bitcoin whale wallets with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more is another indicator that signals when buying opportunities arise.

Number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 10,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode

A close look at the past three months shows that while the market has been selling off, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC has been climbing.

Number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 10,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode

The number of whale wallets of this size is now at its highest level since February 2021, when Bitcoin was trading above $57,000, and these wallets were selling into strength near the market top.

While many analysts on Crypto Twitter are calling for another 30-plus percent drop in the price of BTC, whale wallets are betting on a positive future.

Related: 3 reasons why Bitcoin is regaining its crypto market dominance

Some traders buy when Bitcoin price drops below its cost of production

Another metric that can provide insight into when and where to buy is Bitcoin’s average mining cost, which is the amount of money it costs a miner to mine 1 BTC.

Bitcoin average mining cost. Source: MacroMicro

As seen on the chart above, the price of Bitcoin has traded at or above the cost of production for a majority of the time since 2017, indicating that the metric is a good indicator of when generational purchasing opportunities arise.

A closer look at the current reading shows that the average mining cost sits at $27,644, around $2,000 below where BTC is trading at the time of writing.

Bitcoin average mining cost. Source: MacroMicro

Further analysis shows that in past instances where the market price of BTC fell below the average mining cost, it tended to stay within 10% of the cost to mine and generally managed to regain parity within a couple of months.

Bitcoin mining difficulty also recently hit a new all-time high, and the market continues to see an uptrend as more industrial-sized mining operations come online. This means it’s unlikely that the average cost to mine will see a significant decline anytime soon.

Taken all together, the current cost to mine as compared with the market price of BTC presents a compelling case for the contrarian investor that the widespread fear dominating the market presents an opportunity to be greedy when others are fearful.

Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Brazilian university USP will conduct academic research in the metaverse

On-chain data flashes Bitcoin buy signals, but the bottom could be under $20K

Multiple indicators signal that BTC could be in a “buy zone” but analysts caution that its price could still dip below $20,000.

Every Bitcoin investor is searching for signals that the market is approaching a bottom, but the price action of this week suggests that we're just not there yet. 

Evidence of this can be found by looking at the monthly return for Bitcoin (BTC), which was hit with a rapid decline that “translated to one of the biggest drawdowns in monthly returns for the asset class in its history,” according to the most recent Blockware Solutions Market Intelligence Newsletter.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Blockware Solutions

Bitcoin continues to trade within an increasingly narrow trading range that is slowly being compressed to the downside as global economic strains mount.

Whether the price continues to trend lower is a popular topic of debate among crypto analysts and the dominant opinion current points to further downside.

Analysts will stay bearish until $45,000 is reclaimed

According to Blockware Solutions, there are a variety of indicators that point to a bearish outlook as long as BTC trades below the $45,000 to $47,000 dollar range.

This includes the fact that Bitcoin started off 2022 at $46,200 while the 180-week exponential hull moving average, which gives more weight to recent price action, indicates that the moment for BTC is declining and currently sits at $47,166.

BTC/USD vs. 180-week exponential hull moving average 1-week chart. Source: Blockware Solutions

Short-term hodlers, defined as those who have been in the market for less than 155 days, have been especially hard hit by the market weakness with the current short-term holder cost basis sitting at $45,038.

Taken together, these data points suggest that the sentiment for BTC will remain bearish as long as the price is under $45,000.

Related: Bitcoin price approaches key support levels to avoid 'cascade south'

Where's the bottom?

Despite the current doom and gloom analysis, there are a few signs that the market may be in the process of searching for a bottom.

According to the most recent Glassnode Uncharted newsletter, following the early May drop below $30,000 for Bitcoin, “network activity increased as more supply changed hands while the network shed value.”

Bitcoin entity-adjusted NVT. Source: Uncharted

According to Glassnode,

“This phenomenon has historically signaled a great buying opportunity.”

To further support the claim that Bitcoin is currently in a good buy zone, the report pointed to the entity-adjusted dormancy flow, which has been consolidating within an area that had previously been considered a optimal purchase zone.

Bitcoin entity-adjusted dormancy flow vs. Bitcoin entity-adjusted dormancy. Source: Uncharted

Blockware Solutions, likewise, sees several data points that suggest the market may be in search of a bottom, including the Mayer Multiple, a metric that compares the current market price to the 200–day moving average, which is currently “near some of the lowest readings on record.”

Bitcoin Mayer Multiple. Source: Blockware Solutions

While multiple data points confirm that the crypto market is in a bear market, there are indications that seller exhaustion may be reaching its limit and that the market is searching for a bottom. Where that will eventually be found remains unknown, but several indicators currently point to a solid level of support near the $21,000 level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Bulgarian Crypto Trader Disappears Under Mysterious Circumstances

Bulgarian Crypto Trader Disappears Under Mysterious CircumstancesThe whereabouts of Alexander Altunbashev, a Bulgarian entrepreneur and crypto trader, are unknown since Monday. Law enforcement officials are now investigating his possible abduction while some in the local crypto community speculate he might be hiding from disgruntled investors. Bulgarian Authorities Investigate Possible Kidnapping of Alleged Crypto Millionaire Police in Bulgaria are trying to locate […]

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

WEMIX gains 200%+ after stablecoin and boosted staking rewards announcement

New partnerships, a mainnet upgrade and plans to launch a stablecoin appear to have triggered a 200% rally in WEMIX price.

Blockchain-based gaming, also known as GameFi, is an up-and-coming sector that could potentially be one of the primary catalysts for kickstarting the mass adoption of blockchain technology.

WEMIX, a gaming protocol that operates on the Klaytn network, aims to get in on the GameFi revolution and this week, the project's native token (WEMIX) rallied even as the wider market continued to sell-off.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since hitting a low of $1.27 on May 12, WEMIX price climbed 269% to hit a daily high at $4.70 on May 25 as its 24-hour trading volume increased to $652 million.

WEMIX/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the price reversal for WEMIX are the upcoming launch of WEMIX 3.0, a series of project launches and partnership agreements, and the introduction of lockup staking for token holders.

WEMIX 3.0

The main development attracting attention to WEMIX is the protocol's planned mainnet launch, which is scheduled to take place on June 15.

WEMIX 3.0 will be an Ethereum virtual machine (EVM) compatible public chain that will utilize a stake-based proof-of-authority (SPoA) consensus algorithm.

As part of the mainnet launch, WEMIX will also be introducing the WEMIX Dollar (WEMIX) as the native stablecoin of the ecosystem.

WEMIX will be a 100% collateralized stablecoin, backed by USD Coin (USDC) and off-chain assets like fiat currencies.

New partnerships boost excitement

May has been a busy month for the WEMIX protocol after multiple games launched or announced their upcoming launch dates on the network. New additions include Crypto Ball Z, Four Gods and Every Farm, as well as the onboarding of the SpoLive sports prediction game.

Along with protocol launches, WEMIX announced several strategic investments including being the lead investor in the Old Fashion Research (OFR) crypto fund as well as an investment in an U.S.-based augmented reality metaverse startup called Jadu.

On May 17, the team behind WEMIX also signed a memorandum of understanding with the Vietnam Blockchain Association.

Related: Former Binance executives launch $100 million venture fund

Increased staking rewards

WEMIX also launched Stake360, an incentive that offers WEMIX holders boosted staking rewards for committing to an extended lockup period.

In addition to the standard 7% staking reward available to all token holders, investors who agree to a 90 to 360 day lockup can earn from 9% to 20.28%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Two key takeaways from Nansen’s UST stablecoin depeg report

Blockchain analysis firm Nansen identifies two major takeaways following Terra's UST algorithmic stablecoin collapse.

As the dust settles on the cataclysmic collapse of the Terra ecosystem, an on-chain deep-dive carried out by blockchain analytics firm Nansen highlights two major takeaways.

The cryptocurrency ecosystem was awash with varying speculatory theories around the cause of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin UST’s decoupling from its $1 peg. The who and why seemed a mystery but the outcome was catastrophic, with UST dropping well below $1 while the value of Terra’s stablecoin token plummeting in value as a result.

Nansen undertook an investigation leveraging on-chain data from the Terra ecosystem to the Ethereum blockchain in an effort to chart the chain of events that led to the UST depeg. 

It is worth noting that the report does not include potential off-chain events that could have exacerbated the situation, impact on investors, breakdown of net losses between wallets, and what happened to Bitcoin (BTC) reserves backing UST.

Attackers preyed on shallow Curve liquidity to exploit arbitrage opportunities

The first and biggest takeaway was Nansen’s identification of a small set of addresses or players that identified vulnerabilities in the Terra ecosystem. These actors preyed on the relatively shallow liquidity of Curve pools backing the TerraUSD (UST) peg to other stablecoin and moved to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities.

The report outlines how these actors withdrew UST funds from the Anchor protocol on Terra. These funds were then bridged from Terra to Ethereum making use of the Wormhole infrastructure.

Massive amounts of UST were then swapped with various stablecoins in Curve’s liquidity pools. Nansen then speculated that during the depegging process, some of the identified wallets exploited discrepancies between pricing sources on Curve as well as decentralized and centralized exchanges by taking buying and selling positions across exchanges.

Nansen’s report refuted a speculative narrative that a single attacker or hacker worked to destabilize UST.

Seven wallets central to UST’s depeg

Nansen blockchain analysis adopted a grounded theory approach that identified relevant transaction volume data between May 7 and 11 - the timeframe in which UST lost its $1 peg.

The firm reviewed social media and forum threads to narrow down that particular time frame, highlighting prominent transaction flow on Curve liquidity pools - which led to its three-phase analytical approach.

Phase one involved analysis of transactions in and out of the Curve lending protocol, which allowed Nansen to compile a list of wallets whose activities suggest a significant impact on the UST depegging.

Phase two was slightly more complicated, as Nansen observed transactions across the Wormhole bridge that may have influenced the depeg event. The firm reviewed outflows of UST from the Anchor protocol involving a narrowed-down list of wallets. This was followed by investigating the sale of UST and USDC on centralized exchanges.

Related: Exchanges back ‘Terra 2.0 revival plan’ via airdrops, listing, buyback and burning

The final phase involved triangulating on-chain evidence to form a narrative of the events around the UST depeg. A list of seven wallets was then highlighted that are believed to have been central in the Terra ecosystem collapse.

The Nansen report provides some interesting insights driven by blockchain analytics. The core ‘why’ remains a mystery though - with the firm opting not to speculate on the potential objectives or motivations behind the seven main addresses that played a major role in triggering the depeg of the UST algorithmic stablecoin.

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Binance to Advise Kazakhstan on Crypto Regulations

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3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Falling wedge pattern points to eventual Ethereum price reversal, but traders expect more pain first

ETH dropped below a key support in its USD and BTC pair, but analysts say a bullish trading pattern could eventually spark a sharp trend reversal.

The cryptocurrency market was hit with another round of selling on May 26 as Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $28,000 and Ether (ETH) briefly fell under $1,800. The ETH/BTC pair also dropped below what traders deem to be an important ascending trendline, a move that traders say could result in Ether price correcting to new lows.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a rundown of what several analysts in the market are saying about the move lower for Ethereum and what it could mean for its price in the near term.

Price consolidation will eventually result in a sharp move

A brief check-in on what levels of support and resistance to keep an eye on was provided by independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart showing Ether trading near its range low.

ETH/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Van de Poppe said,

“The question will be whether we can bounce from here and break the $1,940 level. If that happens, I'm assuming we'll continue $2,050. If it doesn't, then the markets are looking at

ETH could make new lows into a bullish falling wedge

According to Twitter analyst Crypto Tony, Ether price is “still looking for that leg down to load up on.”

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter

While it might look negative, this development is actually a positive sign, according to Cointelegraph contributor Jon Morgan, who noted that the pattern outlined on this chart is a falling wedge, a “bullish standard candlestick/bar chart pattern that is indicative of a market that has moved to an extreme and is likely to reverse."

Morgan said,

“Very high expectancy rate of creating either a violent corrective move higher or an entirely new uptrend.”

Related: Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry

Bitcoin dominance rises

ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

According to economist Caleb Franzen, the ETH/BTC pair lost a key support and this is notable because:

“This means that at least one of these statements will be true: $ETH is weakening relative to $BTC; $BTC will outperform $ETH; Alts will underperform $BTC.”

Adding to the ETH/BTC discussion, Twitter user CrediBULL Crypto  noted that the price is “starting to take some of our local lows.”

ETH/BTC 3-day chart. Source: Twitter

The analyst said,

“Any relief here is temporary until we traverse to the bottom of this range, imo. In fact, we may head even lower than pictured here before staging a recovery, but will assess once we hit my target.”

In general, continued weakness with the ETH/BTC pair has the potential to result in the price of Ether and altcoins trending lower while BTC could hold at its current price or even head higher as traders rotate out of underperforming positions into Bitcoin.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.235 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.2%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

Portuguese Parliament Rejects Crypto Tax Proposals During Budget Debate

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3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

No Tax Amnesty for Russian Crypto Miners as Lawmakers Withdraw Proposal

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3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

‘Extreme fear’ grips Bitcoin price, but analysts point to signs of a potential reversal

Sideways crypto price action persists as the Federal Reserve confirms its plan to continue raising interest rates, but analysts spot a silver lining.

The cryptocurrency market settled into a holding pattern on May 25 after traders opted to sit on the sidelines ahead of the midday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to continue on its path of raising interest rates. According to data from Alternative.me, the Fear and Greed Index seeing its longest run of extreme fear since the market crash in Mach 2020.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price action for Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to compress into an increasingly narrow trading range, but technical analysis indicators are not providing much insight on what direction a possible breakout could take.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what analysts think could come next for Bitcoin price.

Whales accumulate as Bitcoin battles to reclaim $30,000

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Twitter

According to market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, "#Bitcoin broke through $29.4K and ran towards the next resistance zone. If we hold $29.4K, we'll be good towards $32.8K. Finally.”

One interesting thing to note at these price levels is that while the predominant sentiment is that of extreme fear, on-chain intelligence firm Santiment pointed out that whale wallets have taken this as an opportunity to accumulate some well-priced BTC.

Bitcoin price vs. supply distribution. Source: Santiment

Santiment said,

“As #Bitcoin continues treading water at $29.6K, the amount of key whale addresses (holding 100 to 1k $BTC) continues rising after the massive dumping from late January. We've historically seen a correlation between price & this tier's address quantity.”

Price could still pull back to $22,500

A macro perspective on how Bitcoin performs following the appearance of a death cross was offered by pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart outlining what to expect if the “historical price tendencies relating to the #BTC Death Cross repeat [...]”

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Rekt Capital said,

$BTC will breakdown from the Macro Range Low support & continue its drop to complete -43% downside. The -43% mark is confluent with the 200-Week MA at ~$22500.”

Related: Scott Minerd says Bitcoin price will drop to $8K, but technical analysis says otherwise

“A pivotal retest”

The importance of the current price level for Bitcoin was touched upon by economist Caleb Franzen, who posted the following chart looking at the long-term performance of BTC versus its weekly anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) noting that “This is a pivotal retest, similar to the dynamics in March 2022.”

BTC/USD vs AVWAP 1-week chart. Source: Twitter

Franzen said,

“A rebound on the weekly AVWAP from the COVID low could increase bullish probabilities. A breakdown below it would drastically increase bearish probabilities, foreshadowing a retest of the grey range, $13.8k-19.8k.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.265 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.8%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin