Does Bitcoin’s negative funding rate signal that bears are in total control?

September 11, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price volatility expected at Fed September FOMC meeting — Here’s how to prepare

August 30, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin’s weekend rally fizzles under $64K — Pro traders take neutral positions

August 26, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price hits $61K, but investors still prefer stocks and bonds right now

August 22, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls were obliterated, but is it time to catch the falling knife?

August 5, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Call

Bitcoin derivatives show traders’ morale is low, weakening the odds of a 20% rise from the $49,320 BTC bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) price crashed 19% on Aug. 5, reaching its lowest level in almost six months at $49,320. The sell-off caused the Bitcoin futures premium, considered the best proxy for derivatives traders’ optimism, to hit its lowest levels in three months. Traders are now debating whether Bitcoin prices below $53,000 represent a golden opportunity or if the risk of another drop below $47,000 is too high.

To gauge the impact of the recent price crash, one should begin by analyzing the Bitcoin futures markets. Unlike perpetual contracts, which typically settle every eight hours, BTC monthly futures carry an embedded cost due to their longer settlement period. Sellers generally demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium relative to regular Bitcoin spot markets to compensate for this issue. In summary, premiums below 5% signal pessimism.

The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) fell to 5.5% on Aug. 5, its lowest level in three months, a sharp drop from the previous week when the indicator peaked at 12%. More notably, when the futures premium bottomed at 5% on May 2, it followed a 15% weekly Bitcoin price decline from $66,600 to $56,200. In May, Bitcoin’s price rebounded by 13% in the three days following the crash, but the current situation differs significantly.

Will Bitcoin bulls or bears benefit from this week’s $9.25B BTC options expiry?

June 26, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bear

The Bitcoin halving hype has long passed, and this month’s massive options expiry provides insight into the future of the current BTC bull market.

A total of $9.25 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options is set to expire on the morning of June 28. June’s monthly expiry is especially important given that it marks the end of the first half of 2024 and historically is the second largest expiry in every market, including the traditional finance industry. Investors are especially concerned after the $3 trillion tech giant NVidia traded down 12% since its all-time high on June 20.

It has been two months since the Bitcoin halving, which likely explains why 57% of the bullish bets have been placed at $70,000 or higher. But, in reality, the market displayed weakness in the past two weeks, making those call (buy) options essentially worthless. If Bitcoin remains near $61,500 on June 28 at 8:00 am UTC, the rights to buy BTC at $62,000 and $64,000 will not take part in the expiry. Similarly, put (sell) options at $58,000 and $60,000 are rendered null.

Bitcoin bulls have weak macroeconomic data on their side, which favors a more aggressive rate cut and monetary stimulus campaigns from the United States Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to a six-month low in May, down 11.3% from the prior year. More concerningly, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the new houses supply, up from 8.1 months in April.

Why are top Bitcoin traders bullish despite BTC price dip to $64.3K?

June 18, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Ethereum price soars on spot ETF rumor — How are ETH options markets positioned?

May 21, 2024 Coin Telegraph

approval

Ethereum price soared to a 2-month high at $3,700 today as analysts significantly boosted their expectation that a spot ETH ETF could be approved.

On May 20, the price of Ether (ETH) surged over 18% after Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, raised the approval odds for the Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) from 25% to 75%. Balchunas noted that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission likely faced political pressure, as their previous position showed little engagement with ETF applicants.

Balchunas further mentioned that the SEC is reportedly asking exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq to update their filings, although there has been no official confirmation from the regulator. Nonetheless, Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and president of the ETF Store, stated that the final decision is still pending regarding the registration requirement for individual funds (S-1s).

According to Geraci, the SEC could approve the exchange rule changes (19b-4s) separately from the fund’s registration (S-1), which could technically be delayed beyond the May 23 deadline for VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF request. This allows the regulator additional time to review and approve these documents, considering the complexities and risks associated with structures involving Proof-of-Stake (PoS) cryptocurrencies.