Bitcoin bears need BTC price to go below $27K ahead of Friday’s $900M options expiry

May 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin bears need BTC price to go below K ahead of Friday's 0M options expiry</div>

Analysis

Bitcoin price giving up ground over the past week to slide below $28,000 has put bears in a better position for Friday's expiry.

The $900 million Bitcoin (BTC) weekly options expiry on May 12 might play a decisive role in determining whether the price will succumb below $27,000.

Bitcoin price rejected again at $30,000

BTC bears will try to take advantage of macroeconomic headwinds, Silk Road coins' FUD, and uncertainty caused by Bitcoin’s transaction fee spike to pull Bitcoin's price down in the next few days.

*Bitcoin 4-h price movements during option expiries. Source: TradingView*

The BTC/USD pair broke above $29,800 on May 6, but the tide quickly changed as the resistance proved stronger than anticipated.

The subsequent 8.2% two-day correction tested $27,400 support, favoring the thesis of sideways trading as investors evaluate the economic crisis dynamic and its potential impact on cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway owner and billionaire investor Warren Buffett is no longer optimistic about the U.S. economy’s growth. Such a pessimistic scenario for the global economy might explain why some Bitcoin traders decided to reduce exposure over the past week, greatly reducing the odds of breaking $30,000.

Bitcoin options: bulls were excessively optimistic

The open interest for the May 12 options expiry is $900 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$28,000 price levels.

These traders got excessively optimistic after Bitcoin’s price rallied 11.2% between April 9 and April 14, testing the $31,000 resistance.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for May 12. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.65 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $560 million in call (buy) open interest and the $340 million in put (sell) options.

But if Bitcoin’s price remains near $27,500 at 8:00 am UTC on May 12, only $11 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to buy Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 is useless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bitcoin bulls aim for $28,000 to balance the scales

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 12 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price.

The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $25,000 and $27,000: 100 calls vs. 9,900 puts. Bears in total control, profiting $230 million.
Between $27,000 and $28,000: 400 calls vs. 5,000 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $120 million.
Between $28,000 and $29,000: 1,500 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The result is balanced between put and call options.
Between $29,000 and $30,000: 3,300 calls vs. 800 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $70 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Ultimately, after it became clear that the Bitcoin network was working as designed, the selling pressure dissipated, causing Bitcoin’s price to stabilize around $27,500. Nevertheless, traders should be cautious as the bears are still in a better position for Friday’s weekly options expiry, favoring negative price moves.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin options: How to play it when BTC price moves up or down 10%

May 8, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bank

A perfect storm is forming for higher volatility. Learn how to profit from BTC price moves on either side.

Here’s how Bitcoin (BTC) traders can profit whether its price move up or down 10% within 55 days.

Bitcoin options: Bracing for volatility

Traditional market analysts have started calling for a volatility spike due to the United States government debt discussion.

Moreover, signs of stress coming from the banking sector surprised investors after the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, reached its lowest level in 12 months at 101 on May 4.

Stock market and macro analyst Markets & Mayhem posted a chart from Deutsche Bank that correlates historical government spending and debt concerns with spikes in the stock market volatility.

Volatility could rise into a government debt debacle as the kabuki theater carries on

Source: Deutsche pic.twitter.com/fmJVKvUZvc
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 1, 2023

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the government may run out of cash by June if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling. According to the BBC, President Joe Biden has called a meeting of congressional leaders on the issue for May 9.

Government officials said the overspending is partly due to lower-than-expected income tax receipts, which are typical of recession periods.

Volatility could impact Bitcoin price, but direction unknown

It is worth noting that the volatility indicator neither dictates whether the market has been gaining strength nor anticipates eventual crashes.

The index calculation does not account for price gains or losses, only directional changes. Thus, if the volatility reaches historically low levels, it merely reflects that the asset has displayed a low amplitude of daily price fluctuations.

*Bitcoin 40-day realized volatility. Source: TradingView*

Notice how Bitcoin’s 40-day historical volatility does not usually remain below 40% for long. That information, coupled with the traditional markets’ stress caused by the regional banking crisis and the debt ceiling discussion might be brewing the perfect storm for a sharp volatility spike.

While one can benefit from the expectation of higher volatility for the next couple of weeks, most investors are unwilling to take directional bets, meaning they have no confidence in whether the market will move up or down.

However, there is an options strategy that fits this scenario and allows investors to profit from a strong move on either side.

The reverse (short) iron butterfly is a limited-risk, limited-profit options trading strategy. It’s important to remember that options have a set expiration date, meaning the price change must happen during the defined period.

*Profit/Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The option prices above were taken on May 5, with Bitcoin trading at $29,172. All options listed are for the June 30 expiry, but this strategy can also be used using a different time frame.

The suggested non-directional strategy consists of selling 9.2 BTC contracts of the $26,000 put options while simultaneously selling 12.2 call options with a $33,000 strike. To finalize the trade, one should buy 13.5 contracts of $30,000 call options and another 8 contracts of $30,000 put options.

While this call option gives the buyer the right to acquire an asset, the contract seller gets a (potential) negative exposure. To fully protect from market oscillations, one must deposit 0.90 BTC (roughly $26,250), representing the investors’ maximum loss.

Conviction is essential, as the risk-reward ratio is reversed

For this investor to profit, one needs Bitcoin’s price to be below $27,000 on June 30 (down 7.5%) or above $32,150 (up 10.2%). In essence, the trade has a hugely profitable area, but loses over twice the potential gain if Bitcoin fails to move either way considerably.

The maximum payout is 0.337 BTC (roughly $9,830), but if a trader is confident that volatility is right around the corner, a 10% move in 55 days seems quite feasible.

Notice that the investor can revert the operation before the options expiry, preferably right after a strong Bitcoin price move. All one needs to do is buy back the two options that have been sold and sell the other two that were previously bought.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Got liquidated with Bitcoin futures? Get 3.5x leverage using this options strategy

April 27, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Banking Crisis

Here is how professional traders use Iron Condor options strategies to benefit from the banking crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling increase.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls might be disappointed after the $31,000 resistance proved stronger than expected on April 14. However, looking at a broader time frame, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset in 2023, gaining over 74% year-to-date at $29,000.

Positioning for weaker dollar, debt ceiling

It is worth noting that gold is merely 4% behind its all-time high, likely indicating a weaker U.S. dollar as investors increase the odds of recession and further fiscal turmoil for the world’s biggest economy.

Behind the bullish price momentum for Bitcoin are the weakness in the U.S. financial system, namely the $100 billion in quarterly net withdrawals at First Republic Bank and the legislative effort to approve an increase to the urgent $31.6 billion national debt ceiling.

For Bitcoin investors, a financial crisis is a net positive as it forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to expand its emergency funding programs and take out additional unprofitable long-term debt from the system.

Cryptocurrency traders are uncomfortable with the regulatory environment, and the April 25 statement from the New York Federal Reserve further added to the uncertainty. The guidelines disclosed could potentially hinder the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle’s access to the Fed’s securities reverse-repurchase program, the safest vehicle to get yield on deposits.

Unfortunately, there is no way to predict how the banking crisis will unfold or the timeline for regulatory actions against exchanges and stablecoin issuers. On the other hand, "easy money" policies are well known to every investor as extremely beneficial for scarce assets.

Such a scenario explains why professional traders have been using the bullish Iron Condor strategy to maximize gains if Bitcoin breaks above $32,000 in May with limited risk.

Call and put Bitcoin options to hedge the bet

Buying Bitcoin futures pays off during bull markets, but the issue lies in dealing with liquidations when BTC price goes down. This is why pro traders use options strategies to maximize their gains and limit their losses.

The skewed Iron Condor strategy can yield profits above $31,400 by the end of May while limiting losses if the expiry price is below $31,000. It is worth noting that Bitcoin traded at $29,730 when the pricing for this model took place.

*Bitcoin options Iron Condor strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The call option gives its holder the right to acquire an asset at a fixed price in the future. For this privilege, the buyer pays an upfront fee known as a premium.

Meanwhile, the put option allows its holder to sell an asset at a fixed price in the future, which is a downside protection strategy. On the other hand, selling this instrument (put) offers exposure to the price upside.

The Iron Condor consists of selling the call and put options at the same expiry price and date. The above example has been set using the May 26 contracts, but it can be adapted for other timeframes.

Modest 6% Bitcoin price gain needed for profits

As depicted above, the target profit area is $31,420 (6% above the current $29,730 price) to $36,000 (21.2% above the current price). To initiate the trade, the investor needs to short (sell) 1.5 contracts of the $33,000 call option and 3 contracts of the $33,000 put option. Then, the buyer must repeat the procedure for the $35,000 options, using the same expiry month.

Buying 4.8 contracts of the $31,000 put option to protect from an eventual downside is also required. Lastly, one needs to purchase 7.8 contracts of the $36,000 call option to limit losses above the level.

This strategy’s net profits peak at 0.225 BTC ($6,685 at current prices) between $33,000 and $36,000, but they remain above 0.063 BTC ($1,750 at current prices) if Bitcoin trades in the $31,850 and $35,700 range.

The investment required to open this skewed Iron Condor strategy is the maximum loss — 0.063 BTC or $1,750 — which will occur if Bitcoin trades below $31,000 on May 26.

The benefit of this trade is that a wide target area is covered while providing a 357% return versus the potential loss. In essence, it provides a leverage opportunity without the liquidation risks typical from futures contracts.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin touches $30K as BTC bulls well-positioned for weekly $3.2 billion options expiry

April 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Weaker U.S. financial system has raised BTC bulls’ odds of profiting $780 million on April 28 options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) price broke above $29,800 on April 26, totaling 9.6% gains in 24 hours, reaching as high as $30,024 on Bitstamp. Some commentators argue that the 50% drop in First Republic Bank (FRB) shares on April 25 has been the catalyst for Bitcoin’s rally.

Bitcoin gains from banking crisis

Despite the positive shift, its price remains 22.5% down in twelve months, which explains why bulls are far from optimistic.

The FRB debacle comes after the bank’s earnings report, which showed that clients’ deposits shrank by 40.8% during the quarter as customers pulled out their money. Notably, the bank received a $30 billion cash injection in March, but the quarterly outflows topped $100 billion.

On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it would hike interest rates above 5%. By increasing the cost of capital, the central bank might succeed in taming inflation, but the unintended consequence is a weaker economy and a bearish market structure for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Some analysts pin the $31,000 resistance rejection to the harsh cryptocurrency regulatory environment, especially in the U.S.— which became more evident after Coinbase filed a court action to force the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify industries’ rules.

More specifically, the exchange asked the SEC to provide clarification about how it goes about classifying tokens as securities.

Still, Bitcoin’s gains of 27% between March 26 and April 26 is exactly what bulls needed to succeed in April’s $3.2 billion monthly options expiry.

Bitcoin options: bears placed 94% of bets under $28,000

The open interest for the April 28 options expiry is $3.2 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$28,000 price levels. These traders were caught by surprise as Bitcoin gained 9.6% between April 25 and April 26.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for April 28. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.19 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $1.7 billion call (buy) open interest and the $1.5 billion put (sell) options.

However, if Bitcoin's price remains near $29,500 at 8:00 am UTC on April 28, only $54 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $28,000 or $29,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls aim for $30,000 to secure a $780 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on April 28 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $27,000 and $28,000: 14,300 calls vs. 8,700 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $150 million.
Between $28,000 and $29,000: 19,000 calls vs. 3,200 puts. Bulls increase their advantage to $445 million.
Between $29,000 and $30,000: 21,700 calls vs. 1,900 puts. Bulls increase their advantage to $575 million.
Between $30,000 and $31,000: 26,500 calls vs. 600 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $780 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. Unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

BTC bears mass-liquidated in leverage shorts

Bitcoin bulls will likely be satisfied with $575 million profits if they fail to break the $30,000 resistance. Meanwhile, bears need a 6.5% price drop from $29,800 to reduce their losses to $150 million. However, leverage bets on the price downside using futures contracts recently saw $166 million in forced liquidations—leaving less room for bears to maneuver.

Given the bullish momentum that the First Republic Bank issues have generated, Bitcoin bulls are in a good position for the April $3.2 billion BTC monthly options expiry.

Most likely, those profits will be used to further strengthen the $28,000 support with the BTC price now well above $29,000, so the expected outcome is especially concerning for bears.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Fed signals a sharp rate hike in March due to inflation — Here’s how Bitcoin traders can prepare

March 8, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to roll out a fresh interest rate hike on March 22, and options traders could use this risk-averse strategy to generate profits.

Like it or not, for crypto investors, the U.S. Federal Reserve policy on interest rate hikes and high inflation is the single most relevant measure for gauging demand for risk assets. By increasing the cost of capital, the Fed boosts the profitability of fixed-income instruments, but this is detrimental to the stock market, real estate, commodities and cryptocurrencies.

One positive aspect of the Fed's meetings is that they are scheduled well in advance, so Bitcoin (BTC) traders can prepare for those. Federal Reserve policy decisions historically cause extreme intraday volatility in risk assets, but traders can use derivatives instruments to yield optimal results as the Fed adjusts interest rates.

Another challenge for traders is they face pressure from Bitcoin being highly correlated to equities. For example, the 50-day correlation coefficient versus the S&P 500 futures has been running above 70% since Feb. 7. Although it does not state cause and consequence, it is evident that cryptocurrency investors are waiting for the direction of traditional markets.

It's also possible that Bitcoin's low emissions could prove to be a benefit as investors realize that the FED is running out of options to curb inflation. By raising interest rates even further, it could cause the U.S. government's debt repayments to spiral out of control and eventually surpass $1 trillion annually. This creates a huge incentive for Bitcoin bulls, but extreme caution is needed by those willing to make trades based on interest rate hikes.

Risk takers could benefit from buying Bitcoin futures contracts to leverage their positions, but they could also be liquidated if a sudden negative price move occurs ahead of the FED's decision on March 22. For this reason, pro traders are more likely to opt for options trading strategies such as the skewed iron condor.

A balanced risk approach to using call options

By trading multiple call (buy) options for the same expiry date, traders can achieve gains 3 times higher than the potential loss. This options strategy allows a trader to profit from the upside while limiting losses.

It is important to remember that all options have a set expiry date, so Bitcoin's price increase must happen during the set period.

Listed below are the expected returns using Bitcoin options for the March 31 expiry, but this methodology can also be applied to different time frames. While the costs will vary, the general efficiency will not be affected.

The call option gives the buyer the right to acquire an asset, but the contract seller receives (potential) negative exposure. The iron condor consists of selling the call and put options at the same expiry price and date.

As shown above, the target profit area is above $23,800, and the worst scenario is a 0.217 BTC (or $5,156 at current prices) if the expiry price on March 31 happens below $23,000.

To initiate the trade, the investor must buy 6.2 contracts of the $23,000 put (sell) option. Then, the buyer must sell 2.1 contracts of the $25,000 call option and another 2.2 contracts of the $27,000 call option. Next, the investor should sell 3.5 contracts of the $25,000 put (sell) option combined with 2 contracts of the $27,000 put option.

As a final step, the trader must purchase 3.9 contracts of the $29,000 call option to limit losses above the level.

This strategy yields a gain if Bitcoin trades between $23,800 and $29,000 on March 31. Net profits peak at 0.276 BTC ($6,558 at current prices) between $25,000 and $27,000, but remain above 0.135 BTC ($3,297 at current prices) if Bitcoin trades in the $24,400 and $27,950 range.

The investment required to open this skewed iron condor strategy is the maximum loss, hence 0.217 BTC or $5,156, which will happen if Bitcoin trades below $23,000 on March 31. The benefit of this strategy is the wide profit target area, yielding a better risk-to-reward outcome than leveraged futures trading, especially considering the limited downside.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s Price Drop Causes Over $200 Million in Long Liquidations Across Crypto Derivative Exchanges

March 3, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Crypto Incidents Involving Exit Scams, Hacks, and Code Exploits Reach Record Low in December 2022 According to Certik

January 3, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin retraces intraday gains as bears aim to pin BTC price under $18K

December 14, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin retraces intraday gains as bears aim to pin BTC price under K

Coin Telegraph

BTC bears are positioned to profit from this week’s Bitcoin options expiry, especially if price stays below $18,000.

On Dec. 14, Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $18,000 for the first time in 34 days, marking a 16.5% gain from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21. The move followed a 3% gain in the S&P 500 futures in 3 days, which reclaimed the critical 4,000 points support.

*Bitcoin/USD index (orange, left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView*

While BTC price started the day in favor of bulls, investors anxiously awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve Committee's decision on interest rates, along with Fed chair Jerome Powell's remarks. The subsequent 0.50% hike and Powell’s explanation of why the Fed would stay the course of its current policy gave investors good reason to doubt that BTC price will hold its current gains leading into the $370 million options expiry on Dec. 16.

Analysts and traders expect some form of softening in the macroeconomic tightening movement. For those unfamiliar, the Federal Reserve has previously increased its balance sheet from $4.16 trillion in February 2020 to a staggering $8.9 trillion in February 2022.

Since that peak, the monetary authority has been trying to unload debt instruments and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a process known as tapering. However, the previous five months resulted in less than $360 billion of assets decline.

Until there's a clearer guide on the economic policies of the world's largest economy, Bitcoin traders are likely to remain skeptical of a sustained price movement, regardless of the direction.

Bears placed most of their bets below $16,500

The open interest for the Dec. 16 options expiry is $370 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were caught off-guard after the move to $18,000 on Dec. 14. These traders completely missed the mark by placing bearish bets between $11,000 and $16,500, which seems unlikely given the market conditions.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 16. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows a balance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest against the $190 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands near $18,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin remains above $18,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 16, virtually none of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Bitcoin at $17,000 or $18,000 is worthless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls can profit up to $155 million

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of Bitcoin options contracts available on Dec. 16 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $16,500 and $17,500: 1,400 calls vs. 1,200 puts. The net result is balanced between calls and puts.
Between $17,500 and $18,000: 3,700 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $60 million.
Between $18,000 and $19,000: 6,200 calls vs. 0 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $115 million.
Between $19,000 and $19,500: 8,100 calls vs. 0 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $155 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

FTX contagion continues to impact markets

During bear markets, it's easier to negatively impact Bitcoin price due to the tone of newsflow and its outsized effect on the crypto market.

Recent negative crypto news includes reporting on a U.S. court filing that showed an "unfair" trading advantage for Alameda Research, the market-making and trading company associated with the bankrupt exchange FTX.

The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission alleges that Alameda Research had faster trading execution times and an exemption from the exchange's "auto-liquidation risk management process."

Leading into Dec. 16, the bulls' best-case scenario requires a pump above $19,000 to extend their gains to $155 million. This seems improbable considering the lingering regulatory and contagion risks. For now, bears will likely be able to pressure BTC below $18,000 and avoid a higher loss.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price volatility expected ahead of Friday’s $430M BTC options expiry

December 1, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price volatility expected ahead of Friday’s 0M BTC options expiry

Binance

Here is why Bitcoin bears stand to profit from this week’s $430 million BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck below the $18,600 resistance for the past 19 days and while bears successfully breached the $16,000 support on Nov. 21, the 8% range is pretty narrow for an asset class with 60% annualized volatility.

This gives investors good reason to doubt that BTC price will hold its current gains leading into the $430 million BTC options expiry on Dec. 2.

*Bitcoin/USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Investors are still unsure about whether $15,500 was the Bitcoin bottom and the consequences of the FTX and Alameda Research demise continue to emerge. The latest contagion victim was Auros Global, an algorithmic trading and market-making firm, which missed a repayment on a decentralized finance loan.

Regulatory uncertainty also continues to limit Bitcoin's price ascension, especially after United States Senator Elizabeth Warren reinforced the importance of blocking direct exposure of the insured financial institutions and the "highly speculative activity, highly leveraged, and vulnerable" crypto space.

Considering these risks, it seems essential that bulls defend $17,000 ahead of the Dec. 2 options expiry.

Bears placed most of their bets below $16,500

The open interest for the Dec.2 options expiry is $430 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic. These traders completely missed the mark by placing bearish bets between $12,000 and $15,000 after Bitcoin lost the $16,000 support on Nov. 21.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 2. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.88 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $230 million put (sell) open interest against the $200 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands near $17,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains above $17,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 2, only $4 million of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Bitcoin at $16,000 or $17,000 is worthless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls still have a slight chance

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of Bitcoin options contracts available on Dec. 2 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $15,500 and $16,500: 600 calls vs. 3,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $40 million.
Between $16,500 and $17,000: 1,700 calls vs. 1,400 puts. The net result is balanced between calls and puts.
Between $17,000 and $18,000: 6,200 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $110 million.
Between $18,000 and $19,000: 8,600 calls vs. 0 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $160 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Pending regulation and contagion risk help to raise investors' fear

During bear markets, it’s easier to negatively impact Bitcoin price due to the outsized effect negative newsflow has on the crypto market.

For example, Binance exchange moved $2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Nov. 28, triggering concerns in the community.

The transaction raised investors' eyebrows because Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao had previously declared that it's bad news when exchanges move large amounts of crypto to prove their wallet address. Consequently, odds are bears will likely be able to push the Bitcoin price below $17,000 and avoid a potential $110 million loss.

More importantly, the bulls' best-case scenario requires a pump above $18,000 to extend their gains to $160 million — rather improbable considering the lingering regulatory and contagion risks. So, for now, bears seem to have control over Friday's expiry, despite being overconfident.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This simple Bitcoin options strategy allows traders to go long with limited downside risk

November 29, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Blockfi

Bullish on Bitcoin but afraid of futures liquidations? Here is how pro traders use options to cast safer bets.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls were hopeful that the Nov. 21 dip to $15,500 would mark the cycle bottom, but BTC has not been able to produce a daily close above $17,600 for the past eighteen days.

Traders are clearly uncomfortable with the current price action and the confirmation of BlockFi's demise on Nov. 28 was not helpful for any potential Bitcoin price recovery. The cryptocurrency lending platform filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States a couple of weeks after the firm halted withdrawals.

In a statement sent to Cointelegraph, Ripple's APAC policy lead Rahul Advani said he expects the FTX exchange bankruptcy to lead to greater scrutiny on crypto regulations." Following the event, several global regulators pledged to focus on developing greater crypto regulation.

Unfortunately, there is no way to know when investors' sentiment will improve and trigger a new bull run. Despite this, for traders who believe BTC will reach $20,000 by Dec. 30, there is a low-risk options strategy that could yield a decent return with limited risk.

How pro traders use the bullish Iron Condor strategy

The bullish skewed Iron Condor strategy can maximize profits near $21,000 by the end of 2022 and it limits losses if the expiry price is below $18,000. It is worth noting that Bitcoin traded at $16,168 when the pricing for this model happened.

*Bitcoin options Iron Condor skewed strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The call option gives its holder the right to acquire an asset at a fixed price in the future. For this privilege, the buyer pays an upfront fee known as a premium.

The Iron Condor consists of selling the call and put options at the same expiry price and date. The above example has been set using the Dec. 30 contracts, but it can be adapted for other timeframes.

As shown above, the target profit area is $18,350 to $24,000. To initiate the trade, the investor needs to short (sell) 2 contracts of the $20,000 call option and two contracts of the $20,000 put option. Then, the buyer must repeat the procedure for the $22,000 options, using the same expiry month.

Buying 5.8 contracts of the $18,000 put option to protect from an eventual downside is also required. Lastly, one needs to purchase 5.3 contracts of the $24,000 call option to limit losses above the level.

This strategy yields a net gain if Bitcoin trades between $18,350 and $24,000 on Dec. 30. Net profits peak at 0.485 BTC ($7,860 at current prices) between $20,000 and $22,000, but they remain above 0.10 BTC ($1,620 at current prices) if Bitcoin trades in the $18,350 and $23,600 range.

The investment required to open this Iron Condor strategy is the maximum loss, hence 0.103 BTC or $1,670, which will happen if Bitcoin trades below $18,000 on Dec 30. The benefit of this trade is that a wide target area is covered while providing a 475% return versus the potential loss.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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