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Binance’s Bitcoin Reserve Stash Nears 600,000, Company’s BTC Cache Is Now the Largest Held by an Exchange

Binance’s Bitcoin Reserve Stash Nears 600,000, Company’s BTC Cache Is Now the Largest Held by an ExchangeWhile there’s been a lot of discussions concerning proof-of-reserves, self-custody, and the more than $5 billion in bitcoin and ethereum that left exchanges between Nov. 7 through Nov. 14, 2022, Binance’s bitcoin stash has grown significantly since Nov. 12. In fact, metrics from cryptoquant.com indicate that Binance’s bitcoin reserves reached an all-time high on Nov. […]

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Proof-of-Reserves Concept Gains Traction as Major Crypto Exchanges Provide Wallet Lists and Promise Full Audits

Proof-of-Reserves Concept Gains Traction as Major Crypto Exchanges Provide Wallet Lists and Promise Full AuditsWhen it was first discovered that FTX might be insolvent, a large slew of crypto exchange executives said that they aimed to provide proof-of-reserves audits. While exchanges like Binance and Crypto.com have provided wallet addresses tied to company wallets, blockchain analytics firm Nansen has detailed the company is in the midst of creating a display […]

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Elephant in the Room: FTX Troubles Force Exchange Executives to Talk About Proof-of-Reserves

Elephant in the Room: FTX Troubles Force Exchange Executives to Talk About Proof-of-ReservesOn Nov. 9, 2022, a day after the news broke regarding Binance planning to purchase the exchange FTX, the crypto economy dropped 11.17% in 24 hours. The crypto economy has slid under $900 billion for the first time since January 2021. The Binance and FTX news has come as a shock to a lot of […]

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Bitcoin Options Giant Deribit Loses $28 Million in Hot Wallet Hack

Bitcoin Options Giant Deribit Loses  Million in Hot Wallet HackThe world’s largest bitcoin options exchange, Deribit, was hacked for close to $28 million, according to an update from the company’s official Twitter account on Nov. 2. Deribit says that the firm’s hot wallet was drained just before midnight the day prior. Crypto Derivatives Exchange Deribit Loses $28 Million — Company Says Customer Funds Are […]

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Here’s how Bitcoin pro traders plan to profit from BTC’s eventual pop above $20K

Traders who believe BTC will break above $20,000 could use this low-risk options strategy to cast a long bullish bet.

Bitcoin (BTC) entered an ascending channel in mid-September and has continued to trade sideways activity near $19,500. Due to the bullish nature of the technical formation and a drop in the sell pressure from troubled miners, analysts expect a price increase over the next couple of months.

Bitcoin/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView

Independent analyst @el_crypto_prof noted that BTC's price formed a "1-2-3 Reversal-Pattern" on a daily time frame, hinting that $20,000 could flip to support soon.

Fundamental analysts are also attributing the sideways action to troubled Bitcoin-listed mining companies. For example, Stronghold Digital Mining announced a debt restructuring on Aug. 16 that included the return of 26,000 miners.

One public miner, Core Scientific, sold 12,000 BTC between May and July, while publicly traded mining companies sold 200% of their Bitcoin production. Bitcoin enthusiast @StoneysGhoster adds that excessive leverage caused the forced selling, not the mining activity, itself.

Regardless of the base case for Bitcoin's price recovery above $20,000, investors fear the impact of an eventual stock market crash as central banks continue to increase interest rates to curb inflation.

Considering the persistent uncertainty caused by macroeconomic factors, a strategy that yields gains in the $21,000 to $28,000 range while limiting losses below $19,000 seems the most prudent. In that sense, options markets provide more flexibility to develop custom strategies.

It starts with selling put options for upside exposure

To maximize returns, investors could consider the Iron Condor options strategy that has been slightly skewed for a bullish outcome. Although the put option provides its buyer the privilege to sell an asset at a fixed price in the future — selling this instrument offers exposure to the price upside.

Bitcoin options Iron condor skewed strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position Builder

The above example has been set using the BTC Nov. 25 options at Deribit. To initiate the trade, the buyer should short (sell) 1 contract of the $23,000 call and put options. Then, the buyer needs to repeat the procedure for the $25,000 options.

To protect against extreme price movements, a put option at $19,000 has been used. Consequently, 2.6 contracts will be necessary, depending on the price paid for the remaining contracts.

Lastly, if Bitcoin's price rips above $32,000, the buyer will need to acquire 1.6 call option contracts to limit the strategy's potential loss.

The max profit is 2x larger than the potential loss

Even though the number of contracts in the above example aims for a maximum BTC 0.30 ($5,700) gain and a potential BTC 0.135 ($2,560) loss, most derivatives exchanges accept orders as low as 0.10 contracts. As a result, the strategy yields a net profit if Bitcoin trades between $20,000 and $29,600 (+56%) on Nov. 25.

The max net gain occurs between $23,000 and $25,000, yielding a return more than two times higher than the potential loss. Furthermore, with 35 days until the expiry date, this strategy gives the holder peace of mind —unlike futures trading, which comes with an inherent liquidation risk.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

CME Group to Offer Market Participants Ethereum Options 3 Days Before the Merge

CME Group to Offer Market Participants Ethereum Options 3 Days Before the MergeThree days before Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS), the world’s largest derivatives marketplace in terms of volume, CME Group, announced plans to list ethereum options. While CME’s ether options product prepares for regulatory review, the company detailed that the options contract will be measured at 50 ether per contract, using the CME […]

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Here’s how pro traders could use Bitcoin options to buy the $20K BTC dip

Predicting a market bottom is pretty much impossible, but clever traders use options strategies like the Iron Condor setup to target a particular trading price range.

Bitcoin hit a 2022 low at $17,580 on June 18 and many traders are hopeful that this was the bottom, but (BTC) has been unable to produce a daily close above $21,000 for the past six days. For this reason, traders are uncomfortable with the current price action and the threat of many CeFi and DeFi companies dealing with the loss of user funds and possible insolvency is weighing on sentiment.

The blowback from venture capital Three Arrows Capital (3AC) failing to meet its financial obligations on June 14 and Asia-based lending platform Babel Finance citing liquidity pressure as a reason for pausing withdrawals are just two of the most recent examples.

This news has caught the eyes of regulators, especially after Celsius, a crypto lending firm, suspended user withdrawals on June 12. On June 16, securities regulators from five states in the United States of America reportedly opened investigations into crypto lending platforms.

There is no way to know when the sentiment will change and trigger a Bitcoin bull run, but for traders who believe BTC will reach $28,000 by August, there is a low-risk options strategy that yields a decent return with limited risk.

The "Iron Condor" provides returns for a specific price range

Sometimes throwing a "hail Mary" pays off by leveraging ten times via futures contracts. However, most traders are looking for ways to maximize gains while limiting losses. For example, the skewed "Iron Condor" maximizes profits near $28,000 by the end of August, but limits losses if the expiry is below $22,000.

Bitcoin options Iron Condor skewed strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position Builder

The call option gives its holder the right to acquire an asset at a fixed price in the future. For this privilege, the buyer pays an upfront fee known as a premium.

Meanwhile, the put option provides its holder the privilege to sell an asset at a fixed price in the future, which is a downside protection strategy. On the other hand, selling this instrument (put) offers exposure to the price upside.

The Iron Condor consists of selling the call and put options at the same expiry price and date. The above example has been set using the August 26 contracts, but it can be adapted for other timeframes.

The target profit area is $23,850 to $35,250

To initiate the trade, the investor needs to short 3.4 contracts of the $26,000 call option and 3.5 contracts of the $26,000 put option. Then, the buyer needs to repeat the procedure for the $30,000 options, using the same expiry month.

Buying 7.9 contracts of the $23,000 put option to protect from an eventual downside is also required. At another purchase of 3.3 contracts of the $38,000 call option to limit losses above the level.

This strategy yields a net gain if Bitcoin trades between $23,850 and $35,250 on August 26. Net profits peak at 0.63 BTC ($13,230 at current prices) between $26,000 and at $30,000, but they remain above 0.28 BTC ($5,880 at current prices) if Bitcoin trades in the $24,750 and $32,700 range.

The investment required to open this strategy is the maximum loss, hence 0.28 BTC or $5,880, which will happen if Bitcoin trades below $23,000 or above $38,000 on August 26. The benefit of this trade is that a reasonable target area is covered, while providing a 125% return versus the potential loss.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Voyager Digital cuts withdrawal amount as 3AC contagion ripples through DeFi and CeFi

Traders brace for more bad news after headlines revealed that Voyager Digital had lent $655 million to Three Arrows Capital. Is another crypto market sell-off on the way?

The Singapore-based crypto venture firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) failed to meet its financial obligations on June 15 and this caused severe impairments among centralized lending providers like Babel Finance and staking providers like Celsius.

On June 22, Voyager Digital, a New York-based digital assets lending and yield company listed on the Toronto Stock exchange, saw its shares drop nearly 60% after revealing a $655 million exposure to Three Arrows Capital.

Voyager offers crypto trading and staking and had about $5.8 billion of assets on its platform in March, according to Bloomberg. Voyager's website mentions that the firm offers a Mastercard debit card with cashback and allegedly pays up to 12% annualized rewards on crypto deposits with no lockups.

More recently, on June 23, Voyager Digital lowered its daily withdrawal limit to $10,000, as reported by Reuters.

The contagion risk spread to derivatives contracts

It remains unknown how Voyager shouldered so much liability to a single counterparty, but the firm is willing to pursue legal action to recover its funds from 3AC. To remain solvent, Voyager borrowed 15,000 Bitcoin (BTC) from Alameda Research, the crypto trading firm spearheaded by Sam Bankman-Fried.

Voyager has also secured a $200 million cash loan and another 350 million USDC Coin (USDC) revolver credit to safeguard customer redemption requests. Compass Point Research & Trading LLC analysts noted that the event "raises survivability questions" for Voyager, hence, crypto investors question whether further market participants could face a similar outcome.

Even though there is no way to know how centralized crypto lending and yield firms operate, it is important to understand that a single derivatives contract counterparty cannot create contagion risk.

A crypto derivatives exchange could be insolvent, and users would only notice it when trying to withdraw. That risk is not exclusive to cryptocurrency markets, but is exponentially increased by the lack of regulation and weak reporting practices.

How do crypto futures contracts work?

The typical futures contract offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and most crypto derivatives exchanges, including FTX, OKX and Deribit, allow a trader to leverage its position by depositing margin. This means trading a larger position versus the original deposit, but there's a catch.

Instead of trading Bitcoin or Ether (ETH), these exchanges offer derivatives contracts, which tend to track the underlying asset price but are far from being the same asset. So, for instance, there is no way to withdraw your futures contracts, let alone transfer those between different exchanges.

Moreover, there's a risk of this derivatives contract depegging from the actual cryptocurrency price at regular spot exchanges like Coinbase, Bitstamp or Kraken. In short, derivatives are a financial bet between two entities, so if a buyer lacks margin (deposits) to cover it, the seller will not take the profits home.

How do exchanges handle derivatives risk?

There are two ways an exchange can handle the risk of insufficient margin. A "clawback" means taking the profits away from the winning side to cover the losses. That was the standard until BitMEX introduced the insurance fund, which chips away from every forced liquidation to handle those unexpected events.

However, one must note that the exchange acts as an intermediary because every futures market trade needs a buyer and seller of the same size and price. Regardless of being a monthly contract, or a perpetual future (inverse swap), both buyer and seller are required to deposit a margin.

Crypto investors are now asking themselves whether or not a crypto exchange could become insolvent, and the answer is yes.

If an exchange incorrectly handles the forced liquidations, it might impact every trader and business involved. A similar risk exists for spot exchanges when the actual cryptocurrencies in their wallets are shorter than the number of coins reported to their clients.

Cointelegraph has no knowledge of anything abnormal regarding Deribit's liquidity or solvency. Deribit, along with other crypto derivatives exchanges, is a centralized entity. Thus, the information available to the general public is less than ideal.

History shows that the centralized crypto industry lacks reporting and auditing practices. This practice is potentially harmful to every individual and business involved, but as far as futures contracts go, contagion risk is limited to the participants' exposure to each derivatives exchange.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity

Friday’s $2.25B Bitcoin options expiry might prove that $17.6K wasn’t BTC’s bottom

Bulls bet on BTC prices above $60,000 for the June monthly options expiry, and now pro investors are going to pay a hefty price for being wrong.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trying to break out of a descending trend for the past week and the first attempt on June 16 failed to break the $22,600 resistance. The second attempt at $21,400 on June 21 was followed by an 8% price correction. After two failed breakouts, the price currently trades below $20,000 and raises questions on whether $17,600 was really the bottom.

Bitcoin/USD 4-hour chart at Coinbase. Source: TradingView

The longer it takes for BTC to break from this bearish pattern, the stronger the resistance line becomes and traders are following the trend closely. That is precisely why it’s important for bulls to show strength during this week’s $2.25 billion monthly options expiry.

Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down on crypto markets after European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde voiced her conviction on the necessity of tighter scrutiny. On June 20, Lagarde expressed her thoughts on the sector’s staking and lending activities: "[...] the lack of regulation is often covering fraud, completely illegitimate claims about valuation and very often speculation as well as criminal dealings."

Bitcoin miners being forced to liquidate their BTC holdings is adding more negative pressure to BTC price and data from Arcane Research shows that publicly-listed Bitcoin mining firms sold 100% of their BTC production in May compared to the usual 20% to 40% in previous months. Collectively, miners hold 800,000 BTC, which creates concerns about a possible sell-off. The Bitcoin price correction drained miners' profitability because the production cost has, at times, exceeded their margins.

The June 24 options expiry will be especially alarming for investors because Bitcoin bears are likely to profit by $620 million by suppressing BTC below $20,000.

Bulls placed their bets at $40,000 and higher

The open interest for the June 24 options expiry is $2.25 billion, but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders completely missed the mark after BTC dumped below $28,000 on June 12, but their bullish bets for the monthly options expiry extend beyond $60,000.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for June 24. Source: CoinGlass

The 1.70 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $1.41 billion call (buy) open interest against the $830 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands below $20,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on June 24, only 2% of these call options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 is worthless if BTC trades below that level on expiry.

Bears have the bulls by the horns

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of Bitcoin options contracts available on June 24 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $18,000 and $20,000: 500 calls vs. 33,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $620 million.
  • Between $20,000 and $22,000: 2,800 calls vs. 27,00 puts. The net result favors bears by $520 million.
  • Between $22,000 and $24,000: 5,900 calls vs. 26,600 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $480 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

A few more dips below $20,000 wouldn’t be suprising

Bitcoin bears need to push the price below $20,000 on June 24 to secure a $620 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best case scenario requires a pump above $22,000 to reduce the impact by $140 million.

Bitcoin bulls had $500 million in leveraged long positions liquidated on June 12 and 13, so they should have less margin than is required to drive the price higher. Considering this data, bears have higher odds of pinning BTC below $22,000 ahead of the June 24 options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Michael Saylor Raves About the U.S.’s $10 Trillion World Reserve Digital Dollar Opportunity