CME crypto futures see record activity during bear market

July 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

The trading of Bitcoin and Ether futures on CME remained elevated in the second quarter, with daily open interest hitting all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) derivatives contracts offered by CME Group saw record activity in the second quarter, offering tangible evidence that professional traders were still accessing digital assets during the bear market.

The average daily open interest (OI) across CME’s crypto futures products reached 106,200 contracts in the second quarter, the highest on record, the company disclosed Thursday. In futures markets, OI reflects the total number of derivatives contracts that have not been settled.

In terms of average daily volume, Bitcoin futures saw 10,700 contracts traded in the second quarter; Ether’s daily volume was 6,100 contracts.

During the week of June 21, large open interest holders (LOIH) accessing CME Group’s crypto products reached a high of 404, signaling “growing interest from institutional and large sophisticated investors,” the company said.

Recession or no recession? Bitcoin traders diverge from the Fed as BTC gains. https://t.co/AeLWgl5zbj
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 28, 2022

Despite extreme market volatility for Bitcoin and Ether, CME Group’s crypto futures products have been “a haven of consistent liquidity with continued volume and open interest growth for investors,” Tim McCourt, CME’s global head of equity and FX products, said, adding:

“The variety of products, including the smaller sized micro bitcoin and micro ether futures and options, offers enhanced flexibility and trading precision for a range of market participants, including large institutions as well as sophisticated, active traders.”

In 2017, CME Group became the second derivatives marketplace to offer Bitcoin futures contracts, trailing its cross-town rival CBOE Global Markets by one week. By the end of 2020, CME’s cumulative Bitcoin futures volume reached $100 billion.

The derivatives exchange has since gone on to launch several crypto derivatives products, including micro-sized Bitcoin and Ether options. These contracts are 10% the size of their respective crypto assets, giving traders more opportunities to hedge their exposure.

On Thursday, CME revealed that its Micro BTC product saw an average daily volume of 17,400 contracts in the second quarter. Daily volume for its ETH-equivalent micro contract was 21,300.

$1.26B in Ethereum options expire on Friday and bulls are ready to push ETH price higher

July 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Ethereum network developers confirmed September as the date of the upcoming Merge, a move which prompted traders to flip long on ETH.

Ether's (ETH) 53% rally between July 13 and 18 gave bulls an edge in July's $1.26 billion monthly options expiry. The move happened as Ethereum developers set a tentative date for the "Merge," a transition out of the burdensome proof-of-work (PoW) mining mechanism .

*Ether USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

According to some analysts, by removing the additional ETH issuing used to finance the energy cost required on traditional mining consensus, Ether could finally achieve the "ultra-sound money" status.

On Beacon Chain, the issuance will be around 1,600 ETH per day decreasing the inflation significantly from 13,000 ETH per day on PoW.

Merge sets effects on monetary policies of Ethereum to become Ultrasound money.

(10/15) pic.twitter.com/9hWjhuGpNK
— Akshay Jain (@akshayjain865) July 25, 2022

Whether or not sound monetary policy revolves around constantly changing the issuing and burning rules remains an open question, but there's no doubt that the Ethereum developers' video call on July 14 helped to catapult ETH price.

On July 26, a sudden dramatic spike in Ethereum network active addresses raised multiple speculations about whether Ether is targeting its previous all-time high. Analytics firm Santiment reported that the number of 24-hour daily active addresses reached 1.06 million, breaking the previous 718,000 high set back in 2018. Theories such as "Binance doing a maintenance sweep" emerged, but nothing has been confirmed yet.

The main victims of Ether's impressive 20% recovery on July 27 were leveraged bearish traders (shorts) who faced $335 million in aggregate liquidations at derivatives exchanges, according to data from Coinglass.

Bears placed their bets below $1,600

The open interest for Ether's July monthly options expiry is $1.27 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were overly-optimistic. These traders got too comfortable after ETH stood below $1,300 between June 13 and 16.

The pump above $1,500 on July 27 surprised bears because only 17% of the put (sell) options for July 29 have been placed above that price level.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for July 29. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.39 call-to-put ratio shows the dominance of the $730 million call (buy) open interest against the $530 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,600, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Ether's price remains above $1,500 at 8:00 am UTC on July 29, only $80 million put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Ether at $1,500 or lower is worthless if Ether trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls are comfortable even below $1,600

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 29 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,400 and $1,500: 120,400 calls vs. 80,400 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $60 million.
Between $1,500 and $1,600: 160,500 calls vs. 55,000 puts. The net result favors bulls by $160 million.
Between $1,600 and $1,700: 187,100 calls vs. 43,400 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $230 million.
Between $1,700 and $1,800: 220,800 calls vs. 40,000 puts. Bulls' advantage increases to $310 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears should throw in the towel and focus on the August expiry

Ether bulls need to sustain the price above $1,600 on July 29 to secure a decent $230 million profit. On the other hand, the bears' best case scenario requires a push below $1,500 to reduce the damage to $60 million.

Considering the brutal $330 million leverage short positions liquidated on July 26 and 27, bears should have less margin to pressure ETH price lower. With this said, bulls are better positioned to continue driving ETH higher after the July 29 monthly options expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum options data show pro traders ready to go long into ETH’s Merge

July 27, 2022 Coin Telegraph

apecoin

ETH price hit resistance at the $1,600 level, but this is not stopping options traders from opening fresh leveraged longs.

Ether (ETH) is down 11.5% in seven days even after the recent confirmation of the "Ethereum merge" transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network in September. During the Ethereum core developers conference call on July 14, developer Tim Beiko proposed Sept. 19 as the tentative target date.

The transition out of energy-intensive mining has been delayed for years, and the journey toward scalability using sharding technology — parallel processing capability — is yet to be scheduled. Still, some analysts expect the network’s monetary policy to boost the value of Ether.

Ethereum researcher Vivek Raman highlighted the effect of the "supply shock" and according to the analyst, the "merge" will "reduce ETH's total supply by 90%," even though no benefit in transaction fees is to be seen in the current transition stage.

Regulatory uncertainty could be partially responsible for Ether's recent sharp correction. A class-action has been proposed against Yuga Labs for "inappropriately inducing" the community to buy nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and the ApeCoin (APE) token. Furthermore, the law firm claims that Yuga Labs used celebrity promoters and endorsements to "inflate the price" of the BAYC NFTs and the APE tokens.

Moreover, on July 26, Infrawatch PH, a think tank in the Philippines, filed a complaint to the local regulator to crack down on Binance's activities and alleged unregistered operations . The petition claims that the exchange has no office in Manila and only uses "third-party companies" for its technical and customer support services.

Options traders are nowhere near optimistic

Investors should look at Ether's derivatives markets data to understand how whales and arbitrage desks are positioned. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever traders overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If those market participants feared an Ether price crash, the skew indicator would move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

*Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

The skew indicator exited the "fear" zone on July 16 as Ether broke above $1,300, its highest level in 33 days. However, the improvement in traders' sentiment was not enough to instill confidence as the metric has since remained at the "neutral" threshold. ETH option traders are currently assessing similar upside and downside price movement risks.

Long-to-short data show a modest improvement in sentiment

The top traders' long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the options markets. This metric gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus better informing on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges' top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Even though Ether has failed to break the $1,600 resistance, professional traders did not reduce their leverage long positions between July 19 and 26, according to the long-to-short indicator.

Binance traders long-to-short ratio failed to hold the 1.13 mark but finished the period at the same level it started, near 1.05. Huobi displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 1.02 to the current 0.98 in seven days.

However, at the OKX exchange, the metric drastically increased within the period, from 0.88 on July 19 to the present 1.37. Thus, on average, traders increased their bullish positions in seven days.

There hasn't been a significant change in whales and market makers' leverage positions despite Ether's 11.5% correction since July 19. Furthermore, options traders are pricing similar risks for Ether's upside and downside moves, while leverage futures players slightly increased their bullish bets. The overall derivatives metrics reading is positive even though ETH failed to break the $1,600 resistance.

Fed policy and crumbling market sentiment could send the total crypto market cap back under $1T

July 25, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Fed policy and crumbling market sentiment could send the total crypto market cap back under T

Asia

Data shows investors jumping back into fiat and a lack of bullish leverage in the crypto market suggests another correction is in the making.

The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560.

*Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView*

The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period.

Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrencies and actions from the United States Federal Reserve could have the largest impact on price action.

Furthermore, the sit and wait mentality could be a reflection of important macroeconomic events scheduled for the week ahead. Broadly speaking, worse than expected data tends to increase investors' expectations of expansionary measures, which are beneficial for riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for July 26 and 27, and investors expect the United States central bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Moreover, the second quarter of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic activity — will be released on July 27.

$1 trillion not enough to instill confidence

Investors sentiment improved from July 18, as reflected in the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge. The indicator currently holds 30 out of 100, which is an increase from 20 on July 18 when it hovered in the "extreme fear" zone.

*Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Source: alternative.me*

One must note that even though the $1 trillion total crypto market capitalization was recaptured, traders' spirits have not improved much. Listed below are the winners and losers from July 17 to 24.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Arweave (AR) faced a 20.6% technical correction after an impressive 58% rally from July 12–18 after the network file-sharing solution surpassed 80 terabytes (TB) of data storage.

Polygon (MATIC) moved down 11.7% after Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin supported the zero-knowledge Rollups technology implementation, a feature currently in the works for Polygon.

Solana (SOL) corrected 9% after the demand for the smart contract network could be negatively impacted by Ethereum's upcoming migration to a proof-of-stake consensus.

Retail traders are not interested in bullish positions

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, Tether's market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Tether has been trading with a slight discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since July 4. Not even the 25% total market capitalization rally durinJuly 13–20 was enough to display excessive buying demand from retail traders. For this reason, these investors continued to abandon the crypto market by seeking shelter in fiat currency.

One should analyze crypto derivatives metrics to exclude externalities specific to the stablecoin market. For instance, perpetual contracts have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on July 24. Source: Coinglass*

The derivatives contracts show modest demand for leveraged long (bull) positions on Bitcoin, Ether and Cardano. Still, nothing is out of the norm after a 0.15% weekly funding equals a 0.6% monthly cost, so uneventful. The opposite movement happened on Solana, XRP and Ether Classic (ETC), but it is not enough to raise concern.

As investors' attention shifts to global macroeconomic data and the Fed's response to weakening conditions, the window of opportunity for the cryptocurrencies to prove themselves as a solid alternative gets smaller.

Crypto traders are signaling fear and a lack of leverage buying, even in the face of a 67% correction since the November 2021 peak. Overall, derivatives and stablecoin data show a lack of confidence in $1 trillion market capitalization support.

Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions

July 22, 2022 Coin Telegraph

China

BTC derivatives used by whales and market makers do not support a continuous price recovery above $24,000.

The previous $19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) support level becomes more distant after the 22.5% gain in nine days. However, little optimism has been instilled as the impact of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Voyager, Babel Finance and Celsius crises remain uncertain. Moreover, the contagion has claimed yet another victim after Thai crypto exchange Zipmex halted withdrawals on July 20.

*Bitcoin/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView*

Bulls' hopes depend on the $23,000 support strengthening as time goes by, but derivatives metrics show professional traders are still highly skeptical of continuous recovery.

Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets

Some analysts attribute the crypto market strength to China’s lower-than-expected gross domestic product data, causing investors to expect further expansionary measures by policymakers. China’s economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter versus the previous year, as the country continued to struggle with self-imposed restrictions to curb another outbreak of COVID-19 infections, according to CNBC.

The United Kingdom's 9.4% inflation in June marked a 40-year high, and to supposedly aid the population, Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi announced a $44.5 billion (GBP 37 billion) assistance package for vulnerable families.

Under these circumstances, Bitcoin reversed its downtrend as policymakers scrambled to solve the seemingly impossible problem of slowing economies amid ever-increasing government debt.

However, the cryptocurrency sector faces its own issues, including regulatory uncertainties. For instance, on July 21, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) labeled nine tokens as "crypto asset securities," thus not only falling under the regulatory body's purview but liable for having failed to register with it.

Expressly, the SEC referred to Powerledger (POWR), Kromatika (KROM), DFX Finance (DFX), Amp (AMP), Rally (RLY), Rari Governance Token (RGT), DerivaDAO (DDX), LCX, and XYO. The regulator brought charges against a former Coinbase product manager for "insider trading" after they allegedly used non-public information for personal benefit.

Currently, Bitcoin investors face too much uncertainty despite the seemingly helpful macroeconomic backdrop, which should favor scarce assets such as BTC. For this reason, an analysis of derivatives data is valuable in understanding whether investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn.

Pro traders remain skeptical of price recovery

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the perpetual fluctuation of contracts' funding rates.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. But this situation is not exclusive to crypto markets, so futures should trade at a 4% to 10% annualized premium in healthy markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The Bitcoin's futures premium flirted with the negative area in mid-June, something is typically seen during extremely bearish periods. The mere 1% basis rate, or annualized premium, reflects professional traders' unwillingness to create leverage long (bull) positions. Investors remain skeptical of the price recovery despite the low cost of opening a bullish trade.

One must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument. For example, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 12%, while the opposite holds true during bullish markets.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The 30-day delta skew peaked at 21% on July 14 as Bitcoin struggled to break the $20,000 resistance. The higher the indicator, the less inclined options traders are to offer downside protection.

More recently, the indicator moved below the 12% threshold, entering a neutral area, and no longer sitting at the levels reflecting extreme aversion. Consequently, options markets currently display a balanced risk assessment between a bull run and another re-test of the $20,000 area.

Some metrics suggest that the Bitcoin cycle bottom is behind us, but until traders have a better view of the regulatory outlook and centralized crypto service providers' liquidity as the Three Arrows Capital crisis unfolds, the odds of breaking above $24,000 remain uncertain.

Bulls or bears? Both have a fair chance in Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry

July 21, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

BTC bulls aim to secure a $235 million profit from Friday’s BTC options expiry, but a downside move below $22,000 could nix this plan.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $24,000 on July 20, but the excitement lasted less than two hours after the resistance level proved more challenging than expected. A positive is that the $24,280 high represents a 28.5% increase from the July 13 swing low at $18,900.

According to Yahoo Finance, on July 19, Bank of America published its latest fund managers survey, and the headline was "I'm so bearish, I'm bullish." The report cited investors' pessimism, expectations of weak corporate earnings and equity allocations at the lowest level since September 2008.

The 4.6% advance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index between July 18 and July 20 also provided the necessary hope for bulls to profit from the upcoming July 22 weekly options expiry.

Global macroeconomic tensions eased on July 20 after Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed plans to reestablish the Nord Stream gas pipeline flow after the current maintenance period. However, in the course of the last few months, data shows that Germany has reduced its reliance on Russian gas from 55% to 35% of its demand.

Bears placed their bets at $21,000 or lower

The open interest for the July 22 options expiry is $540 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears have been caught by surprise. These traders did not expect a 23% rally from July 13 to July 20 because their bets targeted $22,000 and lower.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 22. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.09 call-to-put ratio shows the balance between the $280 million call (buy) open interest and the $260 million put (sell) options. Currently, Bitcoin stands near $23,500, meaning most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains above $22,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 22, only $30 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $22,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bears aim for $24,000 to secure a $235 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 22 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $20,000 and $21,000: 900 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $60 million.
Between $21,000 and $22,000: 2,400 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
Between $22,000 and $24,000: 6,600 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $140 million.
Between $24,000 and $26,000: 9,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls take total control, profiting $235 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears have until Friday to turn things around

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $22,000 on July 22 to avoid a $140 million loss. On the other hand, the bulls' best-case scenario requires a slight push above $24,000 to maximize their gains.

Bitcoin bears just had $222 million leverage long positions liquidated from July 17 to July 20, so they should have less margin required to drive the price higher. In other words, bulls have a head start to sustain BTC above $22,000 ahead of the July 22 options expiry.

DeFi’s downturn deepens, but protocols with revenue and fee sharing could thrive

July 15, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin Watch

It’s too early to know if DeFi is “dead,” but platforms that share revenue with liquidity providers and token holders could be the ones that survive the bear market.

At the moment, liquidity is hard to come by, but crypto traders and protocols still need inflow and revenue to remain functional.

As the crypto winter drags on, savvy crypto investors have realized that one of the reliable sources of passive income that still exists can be found on protocols that generate revenue and share some of it with their respective communities.

Platforms that earn real yield through useage fees are the obvious winner in the bear market, That mean perpetuals and options as they are profitable bear or bull. Thats why #GMX is hot, #snx fees up massively and #eth is just a no brainer.
— Collingwood.lens (@Fraxima1ist) July 13, 2022

Let's take a look at some of the protocols that continue to thrive in the current down market.

DeFi might be dead, but platforms with revenue will thrive

Data from Token Terminal shows revenue positive platforms are primarily the nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces like LooksRare and OpenSea.

*Top dapps based on cumulative protocol revenue in the past 180 days. Source: Token Terminal*

Aside from a few select protocols including MetaMask, Decentral Games, Axie Infinity and Ethereum Name Service, the majority of the remaining protocols with the highest revenue are decentralized finance platforms, showing that while DeFi is down, it's not out of the game.

Fee sharing helps to lure liquidity

DeFi protocols and decentralized applications (DApps) that offer fee sharing to token holders and liquidity providers are also revenue positive.

Historical view of crypto/web3 projects that generate fee revenue to their token holders.

Protocol revenue market share leaders in '21:
Q1: MakerDAO
Q2: PancakeSwap
Q3: Axie Infinity
Q4: Ethereum pic.twitter.com/zNRFnss7c4
— Token Terminal (@tokenterminal) January 29, 2022

As the bear market continues to batter prices and eliminate unprofitable and poorly managed platforms, protocols that offer token holders passive income streams have a higher chance of enduring until the next bull market begins.

Synthetix (SNX) makes a comeback

A good example of how fee sharing can help boost a token and DeFi protocol was recently seen with Synthetix (SNX), which made waves when it partnered with Curve Finance to create Curve pools for several of its Synths assets.

Since the cross-chain collaboration was established, the protocol revenue for Synthetix has seen a tremendous increase that coincided with a rise in the price of SNX from $1.56 to its current price at $2.59.

*SNX daily price vs. protocol revenue in the past 180 days. Source: Token Terminal*

The increase in revenue did not go unnoticed by crypto Twitter, which was quick to point out the rapid turnaround for the platform.

$SNX @synthetix_io bypassed @AaveAave in daily fees Also, @SushiSwap @CurveFinance @MakerDAO combined. pic.twitter.com/w1dBVHL2YD
— Wega (@William24931283) July 7, 2022

How it all plays out for Synthetix in the long run, is anyone’s guess. For now, the platform is demonstrating that generating revenue and sharing some of that revenue with token holders is one way to retain market share during a market downturn.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below $21K leading in Friday’s options expiry

July 14, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests bears will pin BTC below K leading in Friday’s options expiry

CME

Bitcoin’s failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 opened room for bears to score a $100 million profit in this week’s options expiry.

Most Bitcoin (BTC) traders would rather see a sharp price correction and a subsequent recovery than agonize for multiple months below $24,000. However, BTC has been doing the opposite since June 14 and its most recent struggle is the asset’s failure to break above the $22,000 resistance. For this reason, most traders are holding back their bullish expectations until BTC posts a daily close above $24,000.

Events outside of the crypto market are the primary factor impacting investors' perspectives on digital assets and on July 14, United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that inflation is "unacceptably high" and she reinforced the support of the Federal Reserve’s efforts. When questioned about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, Yellen recognized the risk of a recession.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase reported a 28% decline in profits versus the previous year despite recording stable revenues. The difference comes chiefly from a $1.1 billion provision for credit losses because of a "modest deterioration" in its economic outlook.

Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 remains incredibly high and investors fear that a potential crisis in the global financial sector will inevitably lead to a retest of the $17,600 low from June 18.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 30-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

The S&P 500 and Bitcoin 30-day correlation presently stands at 0.87, which has been the norm for the past four months.

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bitcoin's failure to break above $22,000 on July 8 took bulls by surprise because only 2% of the call (buy) options for July 15 have been placed below $20,000. Thus, Bitcoin bears are slightly better positioned for the $250 million weekly options expiry.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 15. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.15 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $134 million against the $116 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands below $21,000, most bullish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $21,000 at 8:00 am UTC on July 15, only $25 million worth of these calls (buy) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to buy Bitcoin at $21,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number

of options contracts available on July 15 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $18,000 and $19,000: 10 calls vs. 5,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $100 million.
Between $19,000 and $20,000: 200 calls vs. 3,400 puts. The net result gives bears a $60 million advantage
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 1,300 calls vs. 1,700 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $19,000 on July 15 in order to secure a $100 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best-case scenario requires a push above $20,000 to balance the scales.

The lack of appetite from professional traders in the Bitcoin CME futures indicates that bulls are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario favors bears, and to secure this Bitcoin price only needs to trade below $21,000 going into the July 15 options expiry.

3 key metrics suggest Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have further to fall

July 12, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Aave

Traders are not as fearful as they were in June, but several metrics show the market is still standing on paper-thin support levels.

The total crypto market capitalization has fluctuated in a 17% range in the $840 billion to $980 billion zone for the past 28 days. The price movement is relatively tight considering the extreme uncertainties surrounding the recent market sell-off catalysts and the controversy surrounding Three Arrows Capital.

From July 4 to 11, Bitcoin (BTC) gained a modest 1.8% while Ether (ETH) price stood flat. More importantly, the total crypto market is down 50% in just three months, which means traders are giving higher odds of the descending triangle formation breaking below its $840 billion support.

#Bitcoin Bottom scenario :

Since #BTC downtrend from its peak $BTC has farming the same Decending triangle pattern every time, but each triangle is becoming smaller

We might see another breakdown from triangle & 400WMA can be bottom #Crypto #cryptocurrencies #cryptocurrency https://t.co/BsXBAJHa4P pic.twitter.com/oAQ0IX5XgU
— Aditya Siddhartha Roy❁ (@Adityaroypspk) July 7, 2022

Regulation uncertainties continue to weigh down investor sentiment after the European Central Bank (ECB) released a report concluding that a lack of regulatory oversight added to the recent downfall of algorithmic stablecoins. As a result, the ECB recommended supervisory and regulatory measures to contain the potential impact of stablecoins in European countries' financial systems.

On July 5, Jon Cunliffe, the deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England (BoE) recommended a set of regulations to tackle the cryptocurrency ecosystem risks. Cunliffe called for a regulatory framework similar to traditional finance to shelter investors from unrecoverable losses.

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied and sentiment slightly improved

The bearish sentiment from late June dissipated according to the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge. The indicator reached a record low of 6/100 on June 19 but improved to 22/100 on July 11 as investors began to build the confidence in a market cycle bottom.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me*

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. Notice that a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 13% or higher even though the total market capitalization increased by 2%.

Aave (AAVE) gained 20% as the lending protocol announced plans to launch an algorithmic stablecoin, a proposal that is subject to the community's decentralized autonomous organization .

Polygon (MATIC) rallied 18% after projects formerly running in the Terra (LUNA) — now called Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem started to migrate over to Polygon.

Chiliz (CHZ) hiked 6% after the Socios.com app announced community-related features to boost user engagement and integration with third-party approved developers.

Asia-based flow and derivatives demand is neutral and balanced

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the official U.S. dollar currency. Excessive cryptocurrency retail demand pressures the indicator above fair value at 100%. On the other hand, bearish markets likely flood Tether's market offer, causing a 4% or higher discount.

Tether has been trading at a 1% or higher discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since July 4. The indicator failed to display a sentiment improvement on July 8 as the total crypto market capitalization flirted with $980 billion, the highest level in 24 days.

To confirm whether the lack of excitement is confined to the stablecoin flow, one should analyze futures markets. Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on July 11. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflected a neutral sentiment as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) displayed mixed funding rates. Some exchanges presented a slightly negative (bearish) funding rate, but it is far from punitive. The only exception was Polkadot's (DOT) negative 0.35% weekly rate (equal to 1.5% per month), but this is not especially concerning for most traders.

Considering the lack of buying appetite from Asia-based retail markets and the absence of leveraged futures demand, traders can conclude that the market is not comfortable betting that the $840 billion total market cap support level will hold.

2 key Ethereum derivatives metrics suggest that $880 was ETH’s bottom

July 8, 2022 Coin Telegraph

2 key Ethereum derivatives metrics suggest that 0 was ETH’s bottom

Coin Telegraph

Data shows Ethereum options traders are less bearish that before, and margin-based markets recently saw some investors go ultra-long on 491,000 ETH.

Ether (ETH) price is up 16% since July 1 and has outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the last 7 days. The move could be partially driven by investors clinging to their hopes that the Ethereum network transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus will be a bullish catalyst.

The next steps for this smart contract involve "the Merge," which was previously known as Eth 2.0. The final trial on the Goerli test network is expected in July before the Ethereum mainnet gets the green light for its upgrade.

Since Terra’s ecosystem collapsed in mid-May, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has increased and the flight-to-quality in the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry largely benefited Ethereum thanks to its robust security and battle-tested applications, including MakerDAO.

*Total value locked by market share. Source: Defi Llama*

Ethereum currently holds a 57% market share of TVL, up from 51% on April 8, according to data from Defi Llama. Despite this gain, the current $35 billion in deposits on the networks' smart contracts seem small compared to the $100 billion seen in December 2021.

Further supporting the decrease in decentralized application use on Ethereum is a drop in the median transfer fees, or gas costs, which currently stand at $1.32. This figure is the lowest since mid-December 2020 when the network's TVL stood at $13 billion. However, one might attribute part of the movement to higher use of layer-2 solutions such as Polygon and Arbitrum.

Options traders flirt with the neutral range

Traders should look at Ether's derivatives markets data to understand how whales and market makers are positioned. In that sense, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever professional traders overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If investors expect Ether price to rally, the skew indicator moves to -12% or lower, reflecting generalized excitement. On the other hand, a skew above 12% shows reluctance to take bearish strategies, typical of bear markets.

The skew indicator briefly touched the neutral-to-bearish range on July 7 as Ether completed a 19% rally in four days. But those option traders soon shifted to a more conservative approach, giving higher odds of a market downturn as the skew moved to the current 13% level. In short, the higher the index, the less inclined traders are to price downside risk.

Margin traders have turned extremely bullish

To confirm whether these movements were confined to the specific options instrument, one should analyze the margin markets. Lending allows investors to leverage their positions to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders open margin longs, their gains (and potential losses) depend on the Ether price increase.

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 100,000 ETH or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

*Bitfinex ETH margin longs. Source: Coinglass*

Interestingly, these margin traders greatly increased their longs since June 13 and the current 491,000 contracts is near its highest level in 8 months. This data shows that these traders are effectively not expecting a disastrous price move below $900.

While there hasn't been a significant shift in pro traders' options risk metrics, margin traders remain bullish and are unwilling to decrease their longs despite the "crypto winter."

If these whales and market makers are convinced that $880 on June 18 was the absolute bottom, traders may begin to believe that the worst leg of the bear market is behind us.

derivatives

Bears placed their bets below $1,600

Bulls are comfortable even below $1,600

Bears should throw in the towel and focus on the August expiry

Options traders are nowhere near optimistic

Long-to-short data show a modest improvement in sentiment

$1 trillion not enough to instill confidence

Retail traders are not interested in bullish positions

Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets

Pro traders remain skeptical of price recovery

Bears placed their bets at $21,000 or lower

Bears aim for $24,000 to secure a $235 million profit

Bears have until Friday to turn things around

DeFi might be dead, but platforms with revenue will thrive

Fee sharing helps to lure liquidity

Synthetix (SNX) makes a comeback

Most bullish bets are above $21,000

Bears could pocket a $100 million profit

Futures markets show bears are better positioned

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied and sentiment slightly improved

Asia-based flow and derivatives demand is neutral and balanced

Options traders flirt with the neutral range

Margin traders have turned extremely bullish

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