1. Home
  2. derivatives

derivatives

This bullish Ethereum options trade targets $3.1K ETH price with zero liquidation risk

The crypto market is starting to turn around, raising opportunities for risk averse traders to use the Long Condor options strategy to long ETH.

Ether price (ETH) spent the last two months stuck in a rut and even the most bullish trader will admit that the possibility of trading above $4,400 in the next couple of months is dim. 

Of course, cryptocurrency traders are notoriously optimistic and it is not unusual for them to expect another $4,870 all-time high, but this seems like an unrealistic outcome.

Despite the current bearish trend, there are still reasons to be moderately bullish for the next couple of months and using a “long condor with call options” strategy might yield a positive outcome.

Options strategies allows the investor to set upside limits

Options markets provide more flexibility to develop custom strategies and there are two instruments available. The call option gives the buyer upside price protection, and the protective put option does the opposite. Traders can also sell the derivatives to create unlimited negative exposure, similar to a futures contract.

Ether options strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position Builder

This long condor strategy has been set for the March 25 expiry and uses a slightly bullish range. The same structure can also be applied for bearish expectations, but this scenario assumes that most traders are looking for upside.

Ether was trading at $2,677 when the pricing took place, but a similar result can be achieved starting from any price level.

The first trade requires buying 5.14 ETH worth of $3,000 call options to create a positive exposure above this price level. Then, to limit gains above $3,500 the trader needs to sell 4.4 ETH contracts of the $3,500 call.

To complete the strategy, the trader needs to sell 6.65 ETH contracts of the $4,000 call, limiting the gains above such a price level. Lastly, a $4,500 upside protection call for 5.91 ETH is needed to limit the losses if Ether unexpectedly skyrockets.

The strategy aims for a healthy 3.2 to 1 profit to loss ratio

The strategy might sound complicated to execute, but the margin required is only 0.175 ETH, which is also the max loss. The potential net profit happens if Ether trades between $3,100 (up 15%) and $4,370 (up 63%).

Traders should remember that it is also possible to close the position ahead of the March 25 expiry. In this strategy, the maximum gain occurs between $3,500 and $4,000 at 0.56 Ether, which is more than three times higher than the potential loss.

Unlike futures trading, this strategy gives the holder peace of mind because there is no liquidation risk. It is also worth noting that most derivatives exchanges accept orders as low as 0.10 ETH contracts, meaning a trader could build the same strategy using a smaller amount.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Bitcoin bulls may ignore Friday’s $730M options expiry by saving their energy for $40K

Bitcoin price is no longer in reach of $40,000, but data shows bulls are willing to take a few short-term losses in order to strengthen their next run at the key resistance level.

The past few months have been less than pleasant for Bitcoin (BTC) bulls, but they are not alone. Persistent comments from the United States Federal Reserve hint at plans to raise interest rates in 2022 and thi is causing investors to seek protection in inflation-protected bonds.

The monetary authority signaled its intention to substantially raise the benchmark interest rate and they will also gradually reduce the monthly purchase of debt assets.

Even though some crypto investors deem Bitcoin digital scarcity as inflationary protection, that does not change its volatility. In turn, it causes the asset price to move in tandem with risk markets.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD (right) vs. Russell 2000 index (left)

The above chart shows Bitcoin price in blue stacked against the smaller U.S. listed companies, as measured by the Russell 2000 equity markets index. Unlike the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Index, this benchmark excludes those tech giants. Thus, the smaller companies are usually considered riskier and are more impacted when investors fear an economic downturn.

However, the negative performance did not scare investors as the Canada-based Purpose Bitcoin ETF attracted over $38 million worth of Bitcoin this Tuesday, its third-largest daily inflow to date. The fund now holds 31,032 BTC, equivalent to $1.2 billion.

Regardless of investors' sentiment, Bitcoin bulls could face a $120 million loss if BTC price moves below $36,000 on Friday's options expiry.

$730 million in options expire on Feb. 4

According to Friday's options expiry open interest, Bitcoin bulls placed heavy bets between $40,000 and $44,000. These levels might seem optimistic right now, but Bitcoin was trading above $42,000 two weeks ago.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Feb. 4. Source: Coinglass.com

At first sight, the $430 million call (buy) options dominate the $300 million put (sell) instruments, but the 1.43 call-to-put ratio does not really tell the whole story. For example, the 14% price drop over the past two weeks wiped out most bullish bets.

A call option gives the buyer a right to buy BTC at a fixed price at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4. However, if the market is trading below that price, there is no value in holding that derivative contract, so its value goes to zero.

Therefore, if Bitcoin remains below $37,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 4, only $34 million of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry.

Bears will fight to keep Bitcoin below $37,000

Here are the three most likely scenarios for Friday's options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the active quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts varies:

  • Between $35,000 and $37,000: 950 calls vs. 4,210 puts. The net result is $120 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $37,000 and $38,000: 1,650 calls vs. 3,300 puts. The net result favors bear instruments by $60 million.
  • Between $38,000 and $39,000: 4,230 calls vs. 1,710 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.

This crude estimate considers call options used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Bulls need $38,000 to balance the scales

A mere 3% price pump from the current $36,900 level is enough for Bitcoin bulls to avoid a $120 million loss on the Feb. 4 options expiry. Still, the same rationale applies to Bitcoin bears because pinning BTC below $37,000 can easily cause them to secure a $120 million profit.

Considering the short-term negative sentiment caused by tighter macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin bulls should pace their energy for a sustainable recovery to $40,000 and higher instead of wasting efforts right now. Therefore, options markets data slightly favor the put (sell) options.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical

Traders expect BTC to flip $40,000 back to support soon, but derivatives metrics signal that a different outcome could occur.

The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders, but there's a positive spin to the data.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView

The road to $40,000 seems uncomfortably predictable, and cryptocurrency traders usually call it "manipulation" when such price movements happen.

Regardless of the rationale behind Bitcoin's price recovery, investors should analyze derivatives markets to understand how whales, market makers and arbitrage desks are positioned.

While retail traders' favorite instrument is the perpetual contract (inverse swaps), pro traders often opt for fixed-calendar futures and options. Although they are more complicated to trade, these derivatives offer more complex strategies.

Liquidations are behind us, but so is the route to $69,000

Data shows that there hasn't been a relevant futures contract liquidation since Jan. 23. When leverage long (buyers) have their positions terminated, it accelerates the price correction, because derivatives exchanges need to sell those futures at market prices.

Total crypto futures liquidations, USD. Source: Coinglass

Notice how the last “big” forced position termination on longs was $290 million on Jan. 23. This partially explains why Bitcoin’s recovery was relatively tranquil over the past week. Still, the market is nowhere near being out of the water, considering that BTC is currently trading 44% below the $69,000 all-time high.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money for 2 to 3 months until the contract expiry. Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 12% indicate bullishness.

The above chart shows that this metric dipped below 5% on Jan. 21 and hasn't yet shown signs of confidence from pro traders.

So the big question is: Is the glass half full? For example, if Bitcoin breaks the $42,000 resistance, some traders will likely be caught off guard, so there's additional buying activity because no one wants to be left behind.

Bitcoin futures markets are neutral, but options traders are skeptical

Currently, it’s a bit difficult to discern a direction in the market, but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

As displayed above, we've been near 10% for almost a week despite the 18% BTC price recovery since the $33,000 bottom. The options skew data shows that pro traders are still pricing higher odds for a market crash.

Despite the not-so-positive indicator from Bitcoin options, these arbitrage desks and market makers will be forced to reverse bearish positions once the price breaks $42,000. However, considering that the futures premium did not show signs of desperation even as the market crashed 52% from the all-time high, the data provides a constructive view.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

TVL, network outages, or derivatives: What’s behind Solana’s (SOL) 60%+ drop?

SOL price is more than 60% away from its all-time high and data shows that it's not the network outages but the loss of territory to competing chains driving the correction.

The past couple of months have not been kind to cryptocurrencies. The sector's aggregate market capitalization plunged 50% from a Nov. 10 peak at $2.87 trillion to the current $1.44 trillion. Solana's (SOL) downfall has been even more brutal, presently trading at $88 after a 66% correction since its $260 all-time-high.

Pinning the underperformance exclusively to the recent network outages seems too simplistic, and it doesn't explain why the accelerated decoupling over the past week, so let's take a look at what might be going on.

Solana/USDT at FTX (blue) vs. Total crypto capitalization (orange). Source: TradingView

The Solana network suffered four incidents in the span of a few months. According to the project's developers, a sudden spike in the number of computing transactions caused network congestion which crippled the network.

Interestingly, the network struggles with congestion since the developers advertise a 50,000 transaction per second (TPS) capacity. The latest incident on Jan. 7 has been attributed to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, but data shows us that network attacks are less relevant than dApps use.

Cyber Capital chief investment officer Justin Bons criticized the network's security, mentioning that DDoS can be used to "temporarily gain proportional-staked control over the network by attacking other stakeholders."

Sergey Zhdanov, chief operating officer of crypto exchange EXMO UK, also said DDoS attacks and similar outages "don't really influence the trust of the network" and should be disregarded. Zhdanov makes a point comparing Ethereum network fees surpassing $50 as a similar hiccup, but not significant enough to cause investors to abandon it for good.

Solana's main decentralized application metric started to display weakness earlier in November after the network's total value locked (TVL), which measures the amount deposited in its smart contracts, began to linger at $15 billion.

Solana network Total Value Locked, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Notice how Solana's dApp deposits saw a 44% decrease in 3 months, as the indicator reached its lowest level since Sept. 8. As a comparison, Fantom's TVL currently stands at $9.5 billion, a 79% increase in 3 months. Another dApp scaling solution competitor, Terra, saw a 60% TVL hike to $16 billion.

Not even the $10 million raised by Solana's decentralized finance (DeFi) application Hubble Protocol in early January was enough to recover investors' confidence. Crypto heavyweights like Three Arrows, Digital Currency Group, Delphi Digital and Crypto.com Capital backed the launch of the crypto-backed stablecoin and zero-interest borrowing platform.

TVL and the number of active addresses dropped

Total value locked is no longer the primary metric that reflects strong fundamentals, meaning a 66% price correction has other factors at play than just a reduced TVL. To confirm whether dApps use has effectively decreased, investors should also analyze the number of active addresses within the ecosystem.

Solana dApps 30-day on-chain data. Source: DappRadar

As shown by DappRadar data on Jan. 28, the number of Solana network addresses interacting with most decentralized applications dropped by 18% to 32%, except for the non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace Magic Eden.

The lesser interest on Solana dApps was also reflected in its futures open interest, which peaked at $2 billion on Nov. 6, but recently faced a steep correction.

Solana futures aggregate open interest. Source: Coinglass

The above chart shows how derivatives traders' interest in Solana plunged 75% in less than 3 months. That is especially concerning because a smaller number of futures contracts might reduce the activity of arbitrage desks and market makers. For example, it is common for participants to self-limit their exposure to 20% of the asset volume or open interest.

Derivatives data could be a consequence, but not the cause

It's probably impossible to pinpoint the correlation and causation between SOL's price drop, the decrease in the network's dApps use, and the fading interest from derivatives traders. However, none of those indicators point to a price recovery anytime soon.

The data above suggests that Solana holders should be less concerned about momentary outages and focus on the ecosystem's use versus competing chains. As long as the ecosystem remains healthy, investors have no reason to lose trust due to temporary network outages.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Bears target new lows for Ethereum as Friday’s $1.1B options expiry approaches

ETH bulls will need to keep searching for positive news, especially as bears apply extra pressure ahead of Friday’s $1.1 billion monthly options expiry.

Ether (ETH) price tumbled below the $3,000 support on Jan. 21 as regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh down the sector and rumors that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing DeFi’s high-yield crypto lending products continue to circulate. 

On Jan. 27, the Russian Finance Ministry submitted a crypto regulatory framework for review. The proposal suggests that crypto operations are carried out within the traditional banking infrastructure and that mechanisms to identify traders’ personal data are included.

Further bearish news came as Ryan Korner, a top special agent from the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Criminal Investigation’s Los Angeles field office, issued negative remarks during a virtual event hosted by the USC Gould School of Law. According to Ryan, crypto is the “future,” but ”fraud and manipulation are still rampant in the space.”

Ether bulls are trying to determine whether the Jan. 24 drop to $2,140 was the final bottom for the current downtrend. This 47.5% correction in 30 days caused an aggregate of $1.58 billion in long futures contracts to be liquidated.

Ether/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView

Notice how Ether’s price has been downtrending for 75 days, respecting a channel that currently holds $2,200 as a support level. On the other hand, a 19% price increase from the current $2,500 to the $3,000 resistance would not necessarily mean a trend reversal.

Curiously, call (buy) option instruments vastly dominate Friday’s $1.1 billion expiry, but bears are better positioned after Ether price stabilized below $3,000.

Ether options aggregate open interest for Jan. 28 expiry. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the call-to-put ratio shows an 82% advantage to Ether bulls because the $680 million call (buy) instruments have a larger open interest versus the $410 million put (sell) options. However, the 1.82 call-to-put indicator is deceptive because the price drop below $3,000 caused most bullish bets to become worthless.

For example, if Ether’s price remains below $2,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 28, only $57 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available. That effect happens because there is no value in the right to buy Ether at $2,500 if it is trading below this level.

Data suggests bulls are set for a significative loss

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Friday for bulls (call) and bear (put) instruments vary depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $2,200 and $2,400: 3,200 calls vs. 121,500 puts. The net result is $270 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $2,400 and $2,700: 19,500 calls vs. 95,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $190 million.
  • Between $2,700 and $2,900: 34,700 calls vs. 73,400 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) options by $110 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Ether above a specific price. But unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bears will try to hold ETH below $2,400

Ether bears need a gentle push below $2,400 to score a $270 million profit on Friday. On the other hand, bulls would need an 8.4% price recovery from the current $2,500 to reduce their loss by 58%.

Considering the bearish regulatory newsflow, Ether bulls are unlikely willing to add more risk right now. Therefore, bulls should concentrate their efforts to partially salvage this defeat by keeping Ether price above $2,500, resulting in a $170 million loss.

January seems to have given Ether bears the upper hand in keeping the pressure on the price in the short term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Derivatives data suggests that Bitcoin’s $39K bounce was a mere blip

BTC price briefly flashed bullish, but derivatives data show bears are in control of January’s $2.3 billion monthly options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are probably quite disappointed with how the start of 2022 has shaped up, especially since the cryptocurrency plunged over 20% in the first 25 days of the year. Even more shocking is the fact that the supposed $32,930 bottom on Jan. 21 was the lowest level BTC price had seen in six months, while equity markets as measured by the S&P500 reached an all-time high on Jan. 4. 

The sell-off in risk markets accelerated after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its plan to raise interest rates in the coming months, a measure intended to hold back the escalating inflation. For example, Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) traded below $58 on Jan. 22, which was a 20% drop from its peak on Nov. 12.

Regulatory uncertainties continue to weigh on the sector as United States Congressman Patrick McHenry called the "inconsistent treatment and jurisdictional uncertainty" on crypto as a problem. McHenry essentially suggested that Congress should take crypto regulation away from executive agencies and courts.

Bitcoin price recovered, but bulls are still in troubled waters

Bitcoin bulls have little to celebrate after the 12% partial recovery to $38,100 on Jan. 26. First, BTC price is down 35% over the past two months, and more importantly, if Bitcoin trades below $38,000 by the Jan. 28 monthly options expiry bears are set to profit by $350 million.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Jan. 28. Source: Coinglass

At first sight, the $1.52 billion call (buy) options overshadow the $760 million in put options, but the 1.96 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the recent price drop will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.

For example, if Bitcoin's price remains below $38,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 28, only $72 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $38,000 if BTC is trading below that price.

Bears bag a $315 million profit even with Bitcoin near $39,000

Here are the three most likely scenarios for the $2.3 billion options expiry on Jan. 14. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In practice, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

  • Between $35,000 and $37,000: 660 calls vs. 13,550 puts. The net result is $450 million favoring the put (bear) options.
  • Between $37,000 and $39,000: 1,300 calls vs. 13,100 puts. The net result is $315 million favoring the put (bear) options.
  • Between $39,000 and $41,000: 3,710 calls vs. 8,170 puts. The net result favors bears by $180 million.

This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. But unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

$40,000 is still a stretch

It might seem relatively easy to move Bitcoin price up by 3% and bring the expiry price above $39,000 on Friday's expiry. However, considering the negative news flow regarding regulation and monetary policy tightening, bulls will likely have a hard time pulling it off.

Therefore, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could easily pressure the price down 3% from the current $38,100 down to $36,900 and secure a $450 million profit.

In short, bears completely dominate Jan. 28 monthly options expiry, giving little hope for a $40,000 price recovery in the short-term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Is the bottom in? Data shows Bitcoin derivatives entering the ‘capitulation’ zone

A key risk indicator for BTC options hit its highest level in six months, possibly signaling that $32,930 was the bottom.

Analysts love to issue price predictions and it seems that nine out of 10 times they are wrong. For example, how many times did analysts say "we will never see Bitcoin back at X price again," only to see it plunge well below that level a few months later? 

It doesn't matter how experienced a person is or how connected in the industry. Bitcoin's (BTC) 55% volatility must be taken seriously and the impact this has on altcoins is usually stronger during capitulation-like movements.

For those unfamiliar with the case, on Dec. 7, Zhu Su's Three Arrows Capital acquired $676.4 million worth of Ether (ETH) after its price collapsed 20% over 48 hours. Zhu went as far as saying that he would continue to buy "any panic dump," despite acknowledging that Ethereum fees were unsuitable for most users.

To understand whether there is still an appetite for bearish bets and how pro traders are positioned, let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s futures and options market data.

Futures traders are unwilling to short

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. A 5% to 15% annualized premium is expected in healthy markets and this price gap is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.

On the other hand, a red alert emerges whenever this indicator fades or turns negative, a scenario known as "backwardation."

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Notice how the indicator held the 5% threshold despite the 52% price correction in 75 days. Had pro traders effectively entered bearish positions, the basis rate would have flipped closer to zero or even negative. Thus, data shows a lack of appetite for short positions during this current corrective phase.

Options traders are still in the "fear" zone

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders should also analyze the options markets. The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. The metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when greed is prevalent, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch

The 25% skew indicator flipped to the "fear" area as it moved above 10% on Jan. 21. That 17% peak level was last seen in early July 2021, and curiously, Bitcoin was trading at $34,000 back then.

This indicator might be interpreted as bearish when considering that arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for downside protection. Still, this metric is backward-looking and usually predicts market bottoms. For example, just two weeks after the skew indicator peaked at 17% on July 5, Bitcoin price bottomed at $29,300.

Correlation with traditional markets is not so relevant

It is worth noting that Bitcoin has been on a downtrend for the past 75 days, and this is before the Federal Reserve's tightening discourse on Dec. 15. Moreover, the increased correlation with traditional markets does not explain why the S&P 500 index peaked on Jan. 4, while Bitcoin was already down 33% from the $69,000 all-time high.

Considering the lack of bears' appetite to short BTC below $40,000 and options traders finally capitulating, Bitcoin shows little room for the downside.

Furthermore, Bitcoin futures liquidation over the past week totalled $2.35 billion, which significantly reduced buyers' leverage. Of course, there are no guarantees that $32,930 was the final bottom, but short sellers will likely wait for a bounce before entering bearish positions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Bitcoin ETF Launch Hype Fades as Funds Slip in Value, BTC Futures Open Interest Down 38% in 2 Months

Bitcoin ETF Launch Hype Fades as Funds Slip in Value, BTC Futures Open Interest Down 38% in 2 MonthsFollowing the charged-up debut of the Proshares bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), Valkyrie’s bitcoin futures ETF and the Vaneck bitcoin strategy ETF, interest in these types of funds seems to have faded a great deal. After the Proshares bitcoin ETF BITO reached an all-time high on November 10, the ETF is down 39% over the last […]

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand

Data shows Bitcoin traders’ neutral view ahead of Friday’s $750M BTC options expiry

Derivatives data suggests that sentiment-wise, pro traders are still neutral on Bitcoin’s price prospects ahead of Friday’s $750 million options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced 11% from the $39,650 low made on Jan.10 and currently the price is battling with the $44,000 level. There are multiple explanations for the recent weakness, but none of them seem sufficient enough to justify the 42% correction that took place since the Nov. 10 all-time high at $69,000.

At the time (Nov. 12), negative remarks from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were issued at the rejection of VanEck's physical Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The regulator cited the inability to avoid market manipulation due to unregulated exchanges and heavy trading volume based on Tether's (USDT) stablecoin.

Then, on Dec. 17, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council recommended that state and federal regulators review regulations and the tools that could be applied to digital assets. On Jan. 5, BTC price corrected again after the Federal Reserve's December FOMC session, which confirmed plans to ease debt buyback and likely increase interest rates.

Regarding derivatives markets, if Bitcoin price trades below $42,000 by the Jan. 14 expiry, bears will have a $75 million net profit on their BTC options.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Jan. 14. Source: Coinglass

At first sight, the $455 million call (buy) options are overshadowing the $295 million puts, but the 1.56 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the 14% price drop over the last three weeks will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $44,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 14, only $44 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $44,000 if BTC is trading below that price.

Bears might bag a $75 million profit if BTC is below $42,000

Here are the four most likely scenarios for the $750 million options expiry on Jan. 14. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In practice, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:

  • Between $40,000 and $43,000: 480 calls vs. 2,220 puts. The net result is $75 million favoring the put (bear) options.
  • Between $43,000 and $44,000: 1,390 calls vs. 1,130 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.
  • Between $44,000 and $46,000: 1,760 calls vs. 660 puts. The net result is $50 million favoring the call (bull) options.
  • Between $46,000 and $47,000: 1,220 calls vs. 520 puts. The net result is $125 million favoring the call (bull) options.

This crude estimate considers put options being used in neutral-to-bearish bets and call options exclusively in bullish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Traders say Bitcoin run to $44K may be a relief bounce, citing a repeat of December’s ‘nuke’

Bulls need $46,000 for a decent win

The only way bulls can score a significant gain on the Jan. 14 expiry is by sustaining Bitcoin's price above $46,000. However, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could easily pressure the price down 4% from the current $43,800 and profit by up to $75 million if Bitcoin price stays below $42,000.

Currently, options markets seem balanced, giving bulls and bears equal odds for Friday's expiry.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price Watch: BTC’s Next Move Hinges on $83.5K Support Amid Low Demand