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Coinbase transaction revenues plummet 44% as users activity declines in Q3

While poor market conditions have resulted in revenues falling for the crypto exchange in Q3, its effort to reduce expenses has led to some streamlining.

Crypto exchange Coinbase saw a huge fall in its transaction revenues in the third quarter after activity fell amid a broader market downturn, but managed to cut its losses in half compared to the prior quarter.

In its shareholder letter released Nov. 3, the company shared that transaction reven had fallen from $655.2 million in the second quarter to $365.9 million, representing a decline of 44%.

The company cited poor macro conditions with daily average crypto market capitalization falling 30% and trading volumes shifting away from the United States due to the lack of regulatory clarity as reasons for the decline. 

It also blamed the numbers on an increasing amount of retail customers holding, while advanced traders have been using other platforms with more complex products amid the bear market. 

Despite the ailing numbers, Coinbase CEO and co-founder Brian Armstrong appeared bullish during the Q3 earnings call, commenting that the regulatory environment could be one of the “biggest unlocks” to growing the industry and even allow for “prices to go back up.”

“I think there's an opportunity at some point for the crypto prices to potentially decouple from the broader macro environment. And we don't know if that's gonna happen, but I think it's one of the possibilities and regulatory clarity is one of the things that could help kick that off.”

During the earnings call, Coinbase’s Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas was also asked whether positive earnings could be expected in the final quarter.

Haas responded by saying that it wasn’t their primary focus, and they are looking to continue investing for growth throughout the cycle while minimizing losses, adding:

“When we’re in bull runs we’re going to make profit, when we’re in downturns we’re going to take prudent losses.”

Coinbase appears to have been successful in that aim, with the latest earnings report showing that they have managed to reduce operating expenses by 38% from the previous quarter through staff cuts and other measures.

Related: Ripple’s allies expand: Coinbase files amicus brief in fight against SEC

Overall, Coinbase reported Q3 revenue of $576.4 million, decreasing 28% from Q2, while its net loss was reduced by 50% to $544.6 million.

Coinbase noted that the fall in revenue was partially offset by an increase in subscription and services revenue — which come from its staking and custody services and interest income — which grew 43% compared to the previous quarter.

Coinbase shares (COIN) have fallen by over 8% over the days trading, with the firm's revenue for the quarter coming in below Bloomberg expectations of $649.2 million.

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MicroStrategy CEO reiterates ‘long term’ Bitcoin play in Q3 earnings

The world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin has reduced its losses compared to previous earnings as its CEO says it will continue to buy and hold Bitcoin long term.

The third quarter earnings for business intelligence firm MicroStrategy revealed a narrowed net loss of $27.1 million for the quarter, while it continues to grow its Bitcoin (BTC) portfolio despite poor crypto market conditions.

The world's largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin owner confirmed it still owns 130,000 BTC at the end of Q3 2022. That amount represents 0.62% of all Bitcoin that will ever be owned, which it says was acquired for a total cost of around $4 billion, or $30,639 per BTC.

The company reported on Nov. 1 impairment charges for the quarter of $727,000, far less than the $917.8 million it recorded in the second quarter of 2022 or the $65 million for the same period last year, thanks to stable Bitcoin prices throughout the last quarter.

An impairment charge is an accounting term used by businesses to describe a reduction in the value of held assets, and according to MicroStrategy, it had cumulative impairment losses of approximately $2 billion as of Sept. 30.

In an earnings call MicroStrategy president and CEO, Phong Le reiterated the firm's long-term hodling strategy, saying:

“We have not sold any Bitcoin to date. To reiterate our strategy, we seek to acquire and hold Bitcoin for the long term. And we do not currently plan to engage in sales of Bitcoin. We have a long-term time horizon and the core business is not impacted by the near-term Bitcoin price fluctuations.”

Michael Saylor, who stepped down from his position as CEO on Aug. 8 but remains with the company as an executive chairman, mentioned in the call that since embarking on its Bitcoin strategy on Aug. 11, 2020, the company's share price was up 116% compared to Bitcoin’s 72% increase for the same period.

In the accompanying earnings report, chief financial officer Andrew Yang gave a nod to the recent announcement from the United States Financial Accounting Standards Board’s decision to support “fair value accounting” for Bitcoin, noting:

“If finally adopted and implemented, we believe fair value accounting will improve upon the current, unfavorable intangible accounting treatment applicable to Bitcoin holdings and will promote additional institutional adoption of Bitcoin as an asset class”

MicroStrategy reported adjusted earnings per share losses of $0.96, compared to analyst estimates of a loss of $0.94, and its revenues of $125.4 million surpassed estimates by just 0.05%.

Related: The Madeira Bitcoin adoption experiment takes flight

The firm's revenues over the past year have reached $119.3 and $122.1 million respectively for Q1 and Q2. $16.4 million of its Q3 revenue came from its subscription services, which represents a 51% increase compared to the year prior in what is the fastest-growing source of revenue for MicroStrategy.

IMF Data Shows Decline in US Dollar Dominance

Metaverse losses top $3.6B for Meta with spending set to increase

The tech giant is just over $500 million away from topping its more than $10 billion Metaverse department losses in 2021, but it said its spending will only grow next year.

Big Five technology player Meta is still burning cash through its Metaverse research and development arm Reality Labs with a $3.67 billion loss posted for the third quarter of 2022, stating those losses will further deepen next year.

The company’s Q3 2022 earnings released on Oct. 26 show the biggest-ever quarterly losses for Reality Labs from earnings dating back to the fourth quarter of 2020, the business also made $285 million in revenue for the third quarter, its lowest on record within that time.

With its Reality Labs business marking its third straight quarterly loss totaling $9.44 billion so far in 2022, Meta is shaping up to beat its 2021 losses on its metaverse play which saw just over $10 billion in losses last year.

Those year-on-year losses are set to deepen as Meta CFO Dave Whener stated in the earnings:

“We do anticipate that Reality Labs operating losses in 2023 will grow significantly year-over-year. Beyond 2023, we expect to pace Reality Labs investments such that we can achieve our goal of growing overall company operating income in the long run.”

On Meta’s earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg continued to be unfazed by the company’s big investment in what he called the “next computing platform.” He said it was the firm’s top priority and told investors that building a Metaverse and its related hardware is “a massive undertaking.”

“It's often going to take a few versions of each product before they become mainstream,” he added. “I think that our work here is going to be of historical importance and create the foundation for an entirely new way that we will interact with each other and blend technology into our lives as well as the foundation for the long term of our business.”

Overall the company slightly exceeded its revenue expectations from Wall Street analysts, bringing in $27.71 billion in revenue for the quarter but bought in $1.64 earnings per share, missing its estimate of $1.88 per share.

Meta’s stock price has fallen over 19.5% in after-hours trading at the time of writing according to Yahoo Finance with the company’s shares down over 61.5% since the start of 2022.

Related: Meta’s Web3 hopes face challenge of decentralization and market headwinds

Meta’s big bet on its virtual world has some investors urging the firm to scale back its investment, with Brad Gerstner, founder of technology investment firm Altimeter Capital and Meta shareholder penning an open letter to Zuckerberg and the board of directors.

Gerstner said its “investment in an unknown future is super-sized and terrifying” and that it could take a decade for its Metaverse to start making a profit, he said the firm should focus on an artificial intelligence offering as it has the potential to better the company’s results.

Some are not optimistic about the future of the Metaverse in the hands of Zuckerberg, Meta whistleblower Frances Haugen in April said its virtual world will repeat “all the harms of Facebook” if the company doesn’t commit to transparency.

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A crumbling stock market could create profitable opportunities for Bitcoin traders

U.S. tech giants are set to report their second quarter earnings throughout October, presenting a scenario that could possibly benefit Bitcoin.

Some of the biggest companies in the world are expected to report their 2Q earnings in October, including electric automaker Tesla on Oct. 18, tech giants Meta and Microsoft on Oct. 24, Apple and Amazon on Oct. 26 and Google on Oct. 30. Currently, the possibility of an even more severe global economic slowdown is in the cards and lackluster profits could further add to the uncertainty.

Given the unprecedented nature of the United State Federal Reserve tightening and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties, investors are afraid that corporate profitability will start to deteriorate. In addition, persistent inflation continues to force businesses to cut back on hiring and adopt cost-cutting measures.

Strengthening the dollar is particularly punitive for U.S. listed companies because their products become more expensive in other countries and the reduced revenue brought in from overseas negatively impacts the bottom line. Google, for instance, is expected to grow revenues by less than 10%, down from a 40% growth in 2021.

The companies that comprise the S&P 500 account for an aggregate $32.9 trillion in value and crypto investors expect some of those bets to enter Bitcoin (BTC) if earnings season fails to sustain a modest growth — signaling the stock market should continue to underperform.

From one side, traders face the pressure from Bitcoin’s correlation to equities, but on the other hand, BTC’s scarcity might shine as inflation concerns arise. This possibly creates an immense opportunity for those betting on a BTC price rally, but extreme caution would also be needed for those opening positions.

Risk averse traders could use futures contracts to leverage their long positions but they also risk being liquidated if a sudden negative price move occurs ahead of the corporate earnings calendar. Consequently, pro traders are more likely to opt for options trading strategies such as the "long butterfly."

By trading multiple call (buy) options for the same expiry date, traders can achieve gains thre times higher than the potential loss. This options strategy allows a trader to profit from the upside while limiting losses.

It is important to remember that all options have a set expiry date, so the asset's price appreciation must happen during the defined period.

A cautionary approach to using call options

Below are the expected returns using Bitcoin options for the Oct. 28 expiry, but this methodology can also be applied using different time frames. While the costs will vary, the general efficiency will not be affected.

Profit / Loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder

This call option gives the buyer the right to acquire an asset, but the contract seller receives (potential) negative exposure. The "long butterfly" strategy requires a short position using a call option, but the trade is hedged on both sides — limiting the exposure.

To initiate the execution, the investor buys 13 Bitcoin call options with a $20,000 strike and sells 24 contracts of the $23,000 call. To finalize the trade, one would buy 10.5 BTC contracts of the $26,000 call options to avoid losses above such a level.

Derivatives exchanges price contracts in BTC terms, and $19,222 was the price when this strategy was quoted.

Using this strategy, any outcome between $20,690 (up 7.6%) and $26,000 (up 35.3%) yields a net profit — for example, the optimal 20% price increase to $23,000 results in a 1.36 BTC net gain, or $24,782 at current levels. Meanwhile, the maximum loss is 0.46 BTC or $8,382 if the price on Oct. 28 expiry happens below $20,000.

The "long butterfly" strategy provides a potential gain that is three times larger than the maximum loss.

Overall, the trade yields a better risk-to-reward outcome than leveraged futures trading, especially considering the limited downside. It certainly looks attractive for those expecting deteriorating business conditions for listed companies.

It is worth highlighting that the only up front fee required is 0.46 BTC, which is enough to cover the maximum loss.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

IMF Data Shows Decline in US Dollar Dominance

MicroStrategy stock MSTR hits 3-month high after CEO’s exit

Poor earnings coupled with overvalued fundamental metrics pose long-term bearish risks for MSTR.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock opened higher on Aug. 3 as investors digested the news of its CEO Michael Saylor's exit after a depressive quarterly earnings report.

Microstrategy stock up 142% since May lows 

On the daily chart, MSTR's price surged by nearly 14.5% to $324.55 per share, the highest level since May 6.

The stock's intraday gains came as a part of a broader recovery that started on May 12 at $134. Since then, MSTR has grown by 142% versus Nasdaq's 26.81% gains in the same period.

MSTR daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Bad Q2, Saylor's resignation

The Aug. 3 MSTR rally came a day after MicroStrategy reported a billion dollar loss in its second quarter (Q2) earnings call. Interestingly, the company's major Bitcoin exposure was a large reason for its poor quarterly performance.

To recap: MicroStrategy is an information technology firm that provides business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. But one of its primarily corporate strategy is to invest in Bitcoin to hold it long-term.

Unfortunately, holding Bitcoin has cost MicroStrategy an impairment loss of $917.84 million from its 129,698 BTC holdings in Q2, primarily due to the crypto's 50% year-to-date (YTD) price drop. In comparison, MSTR plunged 42% in the same period.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Furthermore, MicroStrategy's revenue fell 2.6% year-over-year to $122.07 million. The net quarterly losses prompted Saylor—who has strongly backed the Bitcoin investment strategy since August 2020—to quit as the firm's CEO and become an executive chairman.

MSTR responded positively to Saylor's resignation and the appointment of Phong Le, President of MicroStrategy, as his replacement, suggesting that investors are comfortable with the change in leadership.

What's next for MSTR?

MSTR's course for the remainder of 2022 depends largely on Bitcoin's performance, given their consistently positive correlation in recent years. But several metrics are hinting at a correction ahead. 

The weekly correlation coefficient between MSTR and BTC/USD. Source: TradingView

For instance, MicroStrategy's enterprise value-to-revenue (EV/R) ratio was at 10.76 on Aug. 3, or in "overvalued" territory.

Similarly, MSTR's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has reached 54.95, more than double the market average of 20-25. In other words, the market expects MicroStrategy to show enormous future earnings growth despite its underperformance in recent quarters.

MicroStrategy also has amassed $2.4 billion in long-term debts with $46.6 million in interest expense. Therefore, the company could find it unable to meet its debt obligations if it continues to suffer losses at the current pace.

MSTR long-term debt table. Source: S&P Capital IQ

In other words, MicroStrategy could pledge its nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin holdings as collateral or sell them to raise capital. 

Related: A brief history of Bitcoin crashes and bear markets: 2009–2022

"Nonetheless, crypto and MSTR bulls may remain invested," noted Juxtaposed Ideas, a Seeking Alpha contributor, in its latest analysis, saying that most are willing to "gamble on Bitcoin's eventual recovery to $40,000" or beyond by 2023 or 2024.

"That would be a positive catalyst for its future stock recovery, returning some much-needed capital to the highly volatile investment."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Alphabet, Microsoft and Now Meta Release Disappointing Quarterly Earnings

Alphabet, Microsoft and Now Meta Release Disappointing Quarterly EarningsMeta joined Alphabet and Microsoft in releasing disappointing quarterly financials, following the company’s Q2 earnings call. In a week of a disappointment for mega-cap stocks, the trio has all missed revenue and earnings expectations, with Meta seeing its first quarterly sales decline ever recorded. Economic Slowdown Due to the current global economic slowdown, markets had […]

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IMF global outlook suggests dark clouds ahead for crypto

The IMF has forecast economic growth to slow from 6.1% last year to 3.2% in 2022, which some believe will have negative consequences for crypto.

Investors are warning of further volatility in the digital asset markets as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth.

The IMF’s July update on the World Economic Outlook titled “Gloomy and More Uncertain” points to “higher-than-expected inflation,” and a contraction of global output as indicators of incoming poor economic growth. The report states in succinct terms that there are likely economic slowdowns ahead.

“The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.”

Macro factors have been linked to the crypto bear market, prompting crypto analyst Miles Deutscher to warn his 154,000 Twitter followers to expect volatility in the markets.

He noted the incoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Meta along with the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers from the U.S. could create further turbulence.

Crypto investors are also bracing for a rise in interest rates in the United States this week.  Bloomberg reported on July 26 that the Fed is expected to raise rates by as much as 75 basis points, or 0.75%, up to 2.25% in an attempt to tighten its monetary policy and stump inflation.

There are also industry observers who expect the U.S. to be officially in recession when the Q2 GDP figures for the country are published on July 28. Investopedia defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Crypto market YouTuber DustyBC tweeted on July 26 that the global slowdown coupled with potentially reduced U.S. GDP numbers could explain why Bitcoin (BTC) price dipped below $21,000. 

Meanwhile, founder of Cosmos-based cross-chain decentralized finance (DeFi) hub Umee Brent Xu asked on July 25 in a tweet “Does a macro recession = a crypto recession?”

Cointelegraph quoted the Material Indicators Twitter account on July 25 in reporting that there is “no guarantee that any support holds” after the GDP and interest rate numbers are announced. It added that there may be several days of volatility, echoing Deutscher’s observations.

Elizabeth Gail wrote in Cointelegraph on July 26 that Bitcoin markets were likely to recover when the uncertainty about the current state of the economy and geopolitical tensions are resolved. However, there is no telling how long that will take.

While the economic outlook looks gloomy, the IMF pointed out that the sell-offs in crypto since May due to liquidations, bankruptcies, and losses at major firms like Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and Voyager Digital Holdings have had little impact on other financial systems.

Related: Bitcoin price struggles to defend $21K as Coinbase faces new SEC wrath

This suggests that as the broader financial systems can have a massive effect on crypto, the same cannot be said the other way around.

“Crypto assets have experienced a dramatic sell-off that has led to large losses in crypto investment vehicles and caused the failure of algorithmic stablecoins and crypto hedge funds, but spillovers to the broader financial system have been limited so far.”

As of the time of writing, the total crypto market cap is sitting just barely over $1 trillion according to the TCAP Index.

Disappointing earnings reports and GDP numbers this week could spoil these levels as Cointelegraph reported on July 25 that investors are already starting to seek shelter in fiat in preparation for the worst.

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‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warns of Looming Consumer Recession, More Earnings Trouble

‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Warns of Looming Consumer Recession, More Earnings TroubleHedge fund manager Michael Burry, famed for forecasting the 2008 financial crisis, has warned of a looming consumer recession and more earnings trouble. He cited falling U.S. personal savings and record-setting revolving credit card debt despite trillions of dollars in stimulus money. Michael Burry’s Recession Warning Famous investor and founder of investment firm Scion Asset […]

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Argentinians Are Now Using P2P Markets to Multiply Their Savings

Argentinians Are Now Using P2P Markets to Multiply Their SavingsArgentinians are now discovering that P2P (peer-to-peer) markets can be used to maintain or multiply their savings in crypto and foreign currency. According to local media sources, more and more Argentinians are using P2P exchanges and markets to apply arbitrage and earn money being P2P cashiers. Maximiliano Hinz, Latam operations director of Binance, states that […]

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Strong Bitcoin and stocks rally position bulls for victory in Friday’s $860M options expiry

Recent strength in BTC and the recovery in equities markets are boosting investors’ confidence and giving bulls the upper hand.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have good reason to celebrate the 22% gain in the past week. The price is pushing toward $46,000 and to the surprise of many, the $43,000 level held steady despite the volatility caused by the United States inflation data released on Feb.10.

There have been mixed feelings on the macroeconomic side. For example, retail sales in the Eurozone disappointed on Feb. 4 when the figure showed a 2.0% year-on-year growth versus the 5.1% expectation. while the United States nonfarm payroll abruptly showed a 467,000 jobs increase.

Investors are clearly increasingly concerned about corporate earnings despite the stronger than expected China and U.S. economic growth. In the past few weeks, some big names took a hit, including Meta (FB), Delivery Hero (DHER-DE) and Paypal (PYPL).

Feb. 10’s 7.5% yearly U.S. consumer price index growth will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s expectations of at least two interest rate hikes throughout 2022 and not many investors can seek protection in treasuries because the five-year Treasury yield currently stands at 1.9%.

Bitcoin is still a risky asset, but its price is discounted

Considering that the S&P 500 is only 5% shy of its all-time high, Bitcoin’s recent strength should not come as a surprise. Curiously, put (sell) option instruments dominate the Feb. 11 options expiry, but bears were caught by surprise after Bitcoin price stabilized above $43,000 this week.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Feb. 11. Source: CoinGlass

A broader view using the call-to-put ratio shows a 14% advantage to Bitcoin bears because the $400 million call (buy) instruments have a smaller open interest versus the $460 million put (sell) options. However, the 0.86 call-to-put indicator is deceptive because most bearish bets will become worthless.

For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains above $44,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 11, only $55 million worth of those put (sell) options will be available. That effect happens because there is no value in the right to sell Bitcoin at $40,000 if it’s trading above that level.

Bulls are aiming for a $300 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Feb. 11 for bulls (call) and bear (put) instruments varies depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $42,000 and $44,000: 4,550 calls vs. 1,750 puts. The net result is $120 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $44,000 and $46,000: 6,380 calls vs. 860 puts. The net result favors bulls by $250 million.
  • Between $46,000 and $48,000: 7,860 calls vs. 50 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $350 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. But unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Related: Exchange stablecoin reserve hits $27B as Bitcoin rises toward $50K ‘fair value’

Bears best-case scenario remains unkind

Bitcoin bulls need a small pump above $46,000 to score a $350 million profit on Feb. 11. On the other hand, bears’ best case scenario requires a 4% price drop from the current $45,600 to reduce their loss to $120 million.

Bitcoin bears currently have no reason to add short positions, considering the recent weak corporate data numbers. Therefore, bulls should continue to display strength by pushing the price to $46,000 or higher during Feb. 10’s options expiry.

A $350 million profit might be just what’s needed for bulls to regain confidence and re-open long leverage futures, causing further upward pressure.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

IMF Data Shows Decline in US Dollar Dominance