Does Ethereum’s new ETHPoW fork stand a chance? ETHW price falls 65% post-Merge

September 16, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Nonetheless, ETHPoW is gaining adoption among top mining pools and crypto exchanges.

ETHPoW, a separatist Proof-of-Work (PoW) blockchain forked from Ethereum's Merge, went live on Sep. 15. However, the chain suffered technical issues after the launch, which put downward pressure on its ETHW token.

ETHW price down 65% amid "ChainID" fiasco

The price of ETHW has dropped by 65% since ETHPoW's launch to around $14 on Sep. 16, according to CoinMarketCap. At its lowest, the token was changing hands for $9.50.

*ETHW price performance in the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap*

The losses coincided with a technical issues related to ETHPoW's ChainID."

ChainIDs are identifiers that help users identify one blockchain from another. Thus, ETHPoW required a new ChainID to separate its transaction data from the original Ethereum blockchain after the Merge, otherwise, it risked creating duplicate transactions.

Lol EthPow miners set to wrong chainID, so they’re mining testnet https://t.co/IichaPURjr
— David Trrrrrrr (@daveytea) September 15, 2022

The team behind ETHPoW announced on Sep. 15 that its unique ChainID is 10001. However, data from Chainlist shows that a cryptocurrency project called Smart Bitcoin Cash, operating under the ticker BCHT, had the same ID. This issue resulted in errors on the Metamask cryptocurrency wallet.

The ETHPoW recognized the issue and adjusted the ChainID later on Sep. 15. However, several miners appeared to have pulled out despite a few major pools continuing to mine the PoW chain.

Notably, the ETHPoW hash rate fell to 66.64 TH/s on Sep. 16 after peaking at 80.56 TH/s earlier in the day.

*ETHPoW hashrate as of Sep. 16, 2022. Source: 2miners.com*

In comparison, the hash rate of Ethereum Classic (ETC), another PoW alternative for Ethereum miners, was 234.56 TH/s on Sep. 16 versus its peak near 310.5 TH/s the day before.

ETHW listed on some exchanges despite concerns

Eric Wall, the chief investment officer at cryptocurrency investment firm Arcane Assets, noted that ETHPoW miners could not sustain the chain at current ETHW prices. He explained:

The daily rewards are 13100 ETH, $354k instead of $20m. There is no way miners can just 'keep mining' the ETHPoW chain, no matter how you adjust the difficulty. There simply aren’t enough rewards in the system to pay for the electricity bills.

Nevertheless, ETHW was listed at some leading cryptocurrency exchanges, including FTX and Huobi. In addition, BitTrue has also introduced an ETHW-based liquidity staking service that offers depositors a 6% annual return.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum traders shorted ETH price in record numbers during the Merge — 50% crash ahead?

September 15, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Ethereum traders are betting on a "sell-the-news" event on the day of the Merge as ETH exchange balance jumps.

Ethereum successfully completed its long-awaited transition to proof-of-stake via "the Merge" on Sep. 15, while traders have been increasingly shorting Ether (ETH) in anticipation of a sell-the-news event.

Ethereum funding rate plumme

Ether's futures funding rates across leading derivatives platforms dropped below zero—to their worst levels to date—before the Merge. The rate dropped to as low as -0.6% on BitMex.

*ETH funding rates history. Source: Coinglass*

Funding rates are a percentage of the fee paid to either short or long position holders. The platform decides the fee based on the difference between the perpetual futures contract and the spot price.

Therefore, traders consider a market bullish when the funding rate is positive. Conversely, a negative funding rate hints at a bearish sentiment in the market. Let's understand why with an example.

Currently, Ether's funding rate average is around -0.1%. In other words, traders with a $1 million short ETH position are willing to pay those with long positions $1,000 every eight hours (based on when platforms recalculate the funding rates).

That shows traders' conviction in a potential spot Ether price drop after the Merge.

However, a consistently negative funding rate also increases the possibility of a short squeeze. A short squeeze occurs when an asset moves higher and short traders decide to cover their position or get forced to do so via margin calls, thus adding more upside strength to the asset's price.

ETH price technicals hints at 50% breakdown

From a technical perspective, Ether's price risks dropping by 50% in the coming weeks due to the formation of a symmetrical triangle on its longer-timeframe chart.

Notably, symmetrical triangles are trend continuation patterns, i.e., they typically prompt the price to continue in the direction of their previous trend after a consolidation period. So, Ether's symmetrical triangle pattern appears bearish, particularly as it has formed after the token's 80% decline from its November 2021 highs.

*ETH/USD three-day price chart featuring 'symmetrical triangle' setup. Source: TradingView*

Theoretically, a bearish symmetrical triangle's downside target is calculated after subtracting the triangle's maximum height from the breakdown point. That puts ETH's profit target in 2022 around $850.

Capital rotation into Bitcoin

In addition to negative funding rates and the symmetrical triangle setup, Ether also faces downside risks from a renewed buying interest in Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

On the daily chart, ETH/BTC dropped to 0.078 BTC on Sep. 15, almost a week after topping out at 0.085 BTC. The pair's correction came after a strong bull cycle, wherein its price rose by more than 75% in less than three months.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

"ETH's underperformance ahead of the merge indicates that some traders attempt to front run a potential "sell-the-news" event," noted Arcane Research in its weekly report, albeit adding:

"Whether or not the merge will turn out to be a 'sell-the-news' event remains to be seen."

In another weekly report, investment management firm CoinShares reported a substantial decline in the capital of Bitcoin and Ethereum-based investment products.

However, Ether funds witnessed withdrawals worth $61.6 million in the week ending Sep. 9 compared to Bitcoin's $13 million.

More sell-the-news cues come from a recent rise in Ethereum's balance across all crypto exchanges. Notably, the Exchange inflow volume reached a one-month high of 22,723.289 ETH (7-day MA).

*Ethereum balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode*

Traders typically increase their cryptocurrency deposits on exchanges when they want to sell their holdings. In other words, a rising ETH balance on exchanges increases downside risks.

Will Ethereum keep rallying versus Bitcoin? ETH price technicals hint at 60% gains ahead

September 8, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Ether could enter the pattern's breakout stage in the days leading up to the highly-anticipated Merge.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) shows the potential to log major gains versus Bitcoin (BTC) with the ETH/BTC pair nearing yearly highs.

Ether paints classic bullish reversal pattern

The bullish cues come from a classic technical pattern called the inverse head and shoulders, which develops when the price forms three troughs below a common support level known as neckline. The middle trough, or head, is deeper than the other two, called the shoulders.

An inverse head and shoulders setup resolves after the price breaks above the neckline while accompanying an increase in trading volume. As a rule of technical analysis, its profit target comes at a length equal to the maximum distance between the head's lowest point and the neckline.

So far, Ether has painted a similar pattern, and it now awaits breakout above the neckline, as illustrated in the chart below.

*ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring "inverse head and shoulders" breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

If ETH's price climbs decisively above the neckline, then the Ethereum token's upside target in 2022 will be around 0.136 BTC, up approximately 60% from current price levels.

Merge enthusiasm boosts ETH/BTC pair

The breakout moment could come ahead of Ethereum's switch from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

While the Merge is touted by proponents as a less energy-intensive alternative to PoW, the update could also reduce Ether's annual issuance by 4.2%.

Moreover, the demand for ETH as the means to receive any potential forked tokens following the Merge has seen the ETH/BTC pair rise by more than 55% since the Merge's release announcement on July 14.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes Ether's switch to a less energy-intensive protocol could boost its appeal among institutional investors. In turn, it could ensure Ether overtakes Bitcoin by market capitalization.

"It's entirely possible that we'll see Ethereum flipping Bitcoin at some point in the future," Hougan told Forbes, adding:

“It is going after, in my view, a larger addressable market."

For now, Ethereum's $200 billion market cap trails Bitcoin's $369 billion.

Sell the Merge news?

On the flip side, Ether has been trading near a resistance area with a long history of exhausting price rallies against Bitcoin, notes analyst Riteable. In addition, the ETH/BTC's ongoing uptrend accompanies declining volumes and relative strength index (RSI) readings.

In other words, a bearish divergence that could mean ETH/BTC's price rally could be nearing exhaustion, resulting in a correction post-Merge.

Surge or purge? Why the Merge may not save Ethereum price from ‘Septembear’

September 3, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Options data, macroeconomic catalysts and technical signals suggest a decline in Ethereum price is on the table despite the Merge.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is not immune to downside risk in September after rallying approximately 90% from its bottom of around $880 in June.

Much of the token's upside move is attributed to the Merge, a technical upgrade that would make Ethereum a proof-of-stake (PoS) protocol, slated for Sep. 15.

But despite logging impressive gains between June and September, Ether still trades almost 70% below its record high of around $4,950 from November 2021. Therefore, its possibility of heading lower remains on the cards.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Here are three Ethereum bearish market indicators that show why more downside is likely.

Sell the Ethereum Merge news

Ethereum options traders anticipate Ether's price to reach $2,200 from its current $1,540 level ahead of the Merge, according to Deribit data compiled by Glassnode. Some even see the price hitting $5,000, but enthusiasm looks flat post the PoS switch.

There appears to be demand for downside protection among traders after the Merge, indicated by a so-called "options implied volatility smile" metric (OIVS).

OIVS illustrates the options' implied volatilities with different strikes for the specific expiration date. So, contracts out of capital typically show higher implied volatility, and vice versa.

For instance, in the Ethereum's Sept. 30 options expiry chart below, the smile's steepness and shape help traders assess the relative expensiveness of options and gauge what kind of tail risks the market is pricing in.

*Ethereum OIVS for the contract expiring on Sept. 30, 2022. Source: Glassnode*

Thus, it shows a large buy-side demand for ETH call options expiring in September, indicated by the volatility smile's upward slope, showing traders are willing to pay a premium for a long exposure.

“Post Merge, the left tail is pricing in significantly higher implied volatility, indicating traders are paying a premium for ‘sell-the-news’ put-option protection post-Merge,” Glassnode analysts wrote, citing the OIVS chart below that also features Call and Put open interests at different strike rates.

*Ethereum OIVS for the contract expiring on Oct. 28, 2022. Source: Glassnode*

In other words, ETH traders are hedging their bets in case of a sell-the-news event.

Hawkish Federal Reserve

More downside cues from Ethereum come from its exposure to macroeconomic events, mainly quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to curbing inflation, noting they "must keep at it until the job is done." In other words, Powell and his associates would likely raise interest rates by 0.5%-0.75% in their next policy meeting in September.

Rate hikes have recently been bad news for the ETH/USD pair, given the growing positive correlation between a broader crypto sector and traditional risk-on indices against the prospects of declining cash liquidity. For instance, the daily correlation coefficient between ETH and Nasdaq as of Sep. 3 was 0.85.

*ETH/USD and Nasdaq daily correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, the possibility of Ether declining alongside riskier assets is high, particularly if the Fed hikes by 0.75%.

That giant Ether "bear flag"

From a technical perspective, Ether is painting what appears like a bear flag on its weekly chart.

Bear flags appear when the price consolidates higher inside an ascending parallel channel after a strong move downward. They resolve after the price breaks out of the channel to the downside and, as a rule of technical analysis, falls by as much as the previous downtrend's length (flagpole).

Ether tested the bear flag's lower trendline as support this week. From here, the Ethereum token could either rebound to retest the flag's upper trendline (~$2,500) as resistance or break below the lower trendline to continue its prevailing bearish trend.

Given the factors discussed above, the ETH/USD pair risks entering the bear flag breakdown stage in September, as illustrated in the chart below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring 'bear flag' setup. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, ETH's bear flag profit target comes to be near $540 in 2022, down approximately 65% from today's price.

Ethereum to $2K? ETH price ‘bull flag’ hints at September gains versus Bitcoin, dollar

August 31, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Ether is forming classic bullish patterns against the greenback and its top crypto rival on shorter-timeframe charts.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), looks ready to grow stronger compared to the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin (BTC) in the days leading up to its proof-of-stake transition in September.

ETH price chart bullish setup

The bullish outlook emerges from classic technical indicators on ETH/USD and ETH/BTC charts. For instance, ETH/USD has been forming a "falling wedge" pattern with a profit target sitting around 30% above the current prices.

Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC chart is painting a potential "bull flag" that could increase the price by approximately 10% from current price levels upon resolution.

Here's how these bullish setups could play out.

Ethereum to $2K next?

Falling wedges form when the price trends lower inside a descending, contracting channel.

*Falling wedge illustration. Source: New Trader U*

They typically resolve after the price breaks above their upper trendlines. Their breakout target is as high as the maximum distance between their upper and lower trendlines when measured from the breakout point

ETH's price has been decreasing since mid-August in a falling wedge pattern. It recently rebounded after testing the structure's lower trendline to hit the upper trendline and now eyes a breakout toward or above $2,000, as shown below.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

The wedge's profit target coincides with Ethereum's 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at $2,055.

Moreover, the target appears to be a junction as ETH eyes an extended bull run toward $2,500. This level is the upside target of a broader ascending channel (the purple range) that has been forming since June.

In other words, ETH's price could grow anywhere by 30%-55% in September.

ETH/BTC bull flag setup

Bull flags surface when the price consolidates lower inside a descending, parallel channel after a strong upward move.

*Bull flag illustration. Source: ThinkMarkets*

The pattern resolves after the price breaks above its upper trendline, followed by an extended upside move toward the level at length equal to the size of the previous uptrend, also called flagpole. As a result, analysts call bull flags "bullish continuation" patterns.

Ether has been forming a bull flag against Bitcoin since early August, awaiting breakout as it tests the structure's upper trendline for one. Suppose it happens, then the price could rise toward 0.087 BTC, up approximately 10% from today's price.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring bull flag breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

Alternatively, ETH/BTC could flip lower to retest the flag's lower trendline. This trendline appears to be coinciding with a support confluence consisting of a 50-day EMA (the red wave) and the 0.618 Fib line at 0.0729 BTC.

The pullback will not invalidate the bull flag breakout setup unless the price breaks below the lower trendline. But if it does, ETH/BTC risks falling toward $0.088 BTC, a level synchronous with the 0.5 Fib line and the 200-day EMA (the blue wave).

3 cryptocurrencies that stand to outperform ETH price thanks to Ethereum’s Merge

August 12, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

It's not just ETH price that stands to benefit from Ethereum's move to proof-of-stake in September.

After years of waiting, Ethereum is finally prepared to become a full-fledged proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. Besides Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH), the valuation of several other tokens have not only benefited greatly, but could also keep outperforming ETH after the Merge.

Ethereum steps closer toward the Merge

The leading smart contract platform completed the last of its three public testnets dubbed "Goerli," on Aug. 11. Therefore, there should be no delays in Ethereum's "Merge," expected to go live on Sep. 19.

Ether price jumped 5% to approximately $1,950, its highest level in over two months, after the Goerli update. Meanwhile, certain crypto assets that could benefit from a successful Merge are undergoing upside moves, and have even been outperforming ETH in the past month.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Will these tokens continue to outperform ETH price into September? Let's take a closer look.

Lido DAO (LDO)

The Merge will replace Ethereum's army of miners with validators, who will be required to front 32 ETH as an economic stake.

This major staking requirement has opened up opportunities for middlemen, i.e., platforms that collect Ether from underfunded stakers and put the proceeds together to become validator on the Ethereum blockchain. Lido DAO is one among them.

Lido DAO is the leading staking service in terms of value locked inside Merge's official smart contract. Notably, it has poured 4.15 million ETH into the so-called ETH 2.0 contract, leading Coinbase, which has staked approx. 1.55 million ETH on behalf of its clients.

*ETH 2.0 total value staked by provider. Source: Glassnode*

A successful Merge could boost the demand for Lido DAO services.

In turn, it could prove bullish for the platform's official governance token, LDO, whose value had already soared by more than 200% since July 14, when Ethereum first announced the likelihood of becoming a PoS chain in September.

*LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Therefore, LDO is one of the primary crypto assets that could benefit the most from Ethereum's successful transition to POS.

Ethereum Classic (ETC)

Ethereum Classic (ETC) is another asset that has grabbed the bulls' attention in recent weeks. That is primarily due to its potential to provide a haven for miners exiting the Ethereum network.

Since Ethereum Classic is the split chain from a contentious hard fork in 2016, it exhibits almost all the technical qualities of the current, PoW Ethereum network, making it a natural refuge for ETH miners.

Like LDO, ETC has also rallied by over 200% since the Ethereum's Merge launch announcement on July 14. Therefore, its likelihood of continuing its uptrend is high ahead and after the Merge.

*ETC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Optimism (OP)

Optimism is an Ethereum rollup service. In other words, it aggregates mass transaction data off-chain into batches and releases results back to the Ethereum mainnet when a consensus is reached.

The so-called layer-2 solution could benefit from Ethereum's "Rollup-Centric Roadmap" after the Merge. Interestingly, OP, Optimism's governance token, has rallied nearly 250% since the Merge release date announcement.

*OP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

The prospects of Ethereum deploying Optimism on its network after the Merge could serve as a bullish catalyst for OP price.

3 signs Ethereum price is on track toward $2.5K by September

August 11, 2022 Coin Telegraph

3 signs Ethereum price is on track toward .5K by September

Coin Telegraph

A slew of Ether's technical and fundamental indicators support a push toward $2,500 by September.

Ethereum's native asset Ether (ETH) has more than doubled in value since bottoming out at around $885 in June 2022. Now, it eyes a decisive move toward $2,500 in August per a slew of technical and fundamental indicators.

Ethereum chain split means more tokens

A big part of Ether's ongoing rally has appeared due to "the Merge," a network upgrade that will switch Ethereum's underlying blockchain protocol from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) in September.

Simultaneously, switching to PoS will also eliminate the role of miners in the chain by replacing them with validators. This fear has prompted Chandler Guo, a Chinese crypto miner, to resist the Merge by keeping Ethereum's PoW version alive.

A chain split is possible as a result. Guo has already branded his version of the Ethereum PoW chain as "ETHPoW," alongside its native token "ETHW." Furthermore, some crypto exchanges have already listed the token for trading with even Binance considering doing the same, if necessary.

The Ethereum Merge is approaching.

Here's what you need to know if you hold $ETH on #Binance:

Binance will support “The Merge”.
In case of newly forked tokens, we will evaluate and consider support for distribution and withdrawal.

View details ⤵️https://t.co/iuQSsXZ7fk
— Binance (@binance) August 10, 2022

A key takeaway from a potential chain split is existing Ether holders will receive an equal amount of tokens from the new chains.

In turn, that could boost ETH's demand in the market, leading its price toward the $2,500 mark in the run-up to the Merge.

Bullish flipping underway

During its recent price recovery, Ether has confidently rallied toward a critical support-turned-resistance range of $1,625-$1,975.

ETH/USD now aims to retake the range as support, thus giving itself a strong price floor to pursue a rally toward and above $2,000. Its nearest upside target is the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave in the chart below) at $2,340.

The next range breakout target could be at the Ether' multi-month descending trendline resistance (the black line) at around $2,500.

Institutional inflows gain momentum

The technical upside target of $2,500 receives cues from a recent uptick in capital inflows into Ethereum-based investment funds.

Notably, these institutional products attracted $16.3 million from investors in the week ending Aug. 5. Similar funds for Bitcoin witnessed capital outflows worth $8.5 million in the same period, suggesting a strong upside bias for Ether versus the top crypto.

*Net capital flows in/out of crypto funds. Source: CoinShares*

Overall, the buzz around the Merge acts as the main bullish catalyst as mentioned above. However, Ether could see a strong price corrections after the upgrade to PoS occurs in September when traders potentially start to "sell the news."

Ethereum price rises by 50% against Bitcoin in one month — but there’s a catch

August 6, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The rise in the ETH/BTC pair is painting a bearish technical pattern, hinting at a potential correction.

Ether (ETH), Ethereum's native toke, has been continuing its uptrend against Bitcoin (BTC) as euphoria around its upcoming network upgrade, "the Merge," grows.

ETH at multi-month highs against BTC

On the daily chart, ETH/BTC surged to an intraday high of 0.075 on Aug. 6, following a 1.5% upside move. Meanwhile, the pair's gains came as a part of a broader rebound trend that started a month ago at 0.049, amounting to approximately 50% gains.

The ETH/BTC recovery in part has surfaced due to the Merge, which will have Ethereum switch from proof-of-work (PoW) mining to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Ethereum's "rising wedge" suggests sell-off

From a technical perspective, Ether stares at potential interim losses as ETH/BTC paints a convincing rising wedge.

Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that occur when the price trends higher inside a range defined by two rising, converging trendlines. As a rule, they resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline by as much as the structure's maximum height.

*ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring "rising wedge'' breakdown setup. Source: TradingView*

Moreover, a declining volume and relative strength index (RSI) against a rising ETH/BTC further increases bearish divergence risks. This gives weight to the wedge's bearish setup for a target of 0.064 BTC, or down 11% from today's price.

Ether looks stronger vs. dollar

Meanwhile, technicals paint a brighter picture for Ethereum against the U.S. dollar. The potential of a 10% breakout for ETH/USD looks strong in August due to a classic bullish reversal pattern.

On a four-hour chart, ETH/USD has formed what appears to be a "double bottom." This pattern resembles the letter "W" due to two consecutive lows followed by a change in direction from downtrend to uptrend, as illustrated below.

*ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring "double bottom" breakout setup. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, a double bottom pattern resolves after the price breaks above its common resistance level and—as a rule of technical analysis—rises by as much as the distance between the first bottom and the resistance.

As a result, ETH could rally toward $1,940 in August, up 10% from today's price.

Ethereum’s bearish U-turn? ETH price momentum fades after $1.6K rejection

July 25, 2022 Coin Telegraph

<div>Ethereum's bearish U-turn? ETH price momentum fades after .6K rejection</div>

Coin Telegraph

Ether risks falling further below $1,350 in August as the ETH price rally is losing steam.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) tumbled on July 26, reducing hopes of an extended price recovery. The ETH/USD pair dropped by roughly 5%, followed by a modest rebound to over $1,550.

Ethereum gets rejected at $1,650

These overnight moves liquidated over $80 million worth of Ether positions in the last 24 hours, data from CoinGlass reveals.

*ETH/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView*

The seesaw action also revealed an underlying bias conflict among traders who have been stuck between two extremely opposite market fundamentals.

The first is the euphoria surrounding Ethereum's potential transition to proof-of-stake in September, which has helped Ether's price to recover 45% month-to-date.

However, this bullish hype is at odds with macroeconomic headwinds, namely the Federal Reserve's and European Central Bank's hawkish stance, which put pressure on risk assets and saw Ether price shed 68% to date from its record high of $4,950.

But the short term could provide some upside for ETH price. For instance, analyst PostyXBT anticipates Ether to undergo an interim upside retracement based on the token's recent swings inside an ascending channel pattern, as shown below.

*ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring ascending channel setup. Source: TradingView*

In other words, ETH's price could hit $1,700 ahead of July's close if the pattern plays out.

Bearish divergence

Nonetheless, watching the same recovery trend in conjugation with Ether's four-hour relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator indicator, shows extreme disparities.

Interestingly, Ether's price has been forming higher highs since July 18, while its RSI has been making lower highs simultaneously.

That shows a bearish divergence between ETH's price and momentum, meaning bulls have been losing their grip on the market, and a downtrend may follow.

*ETH/USD four-hour price chart featuring bearish divergence. Source: TradingView*

Ether also risks breaking below its ascending channel's lower trendline, which coincides with two more price supports: the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave) at around $1,500 and the 0.5 Fib line near $1,475.

Losing these key supports would likely push below $1,350 (the $0.382 Fib line and the blue 200-4H EMA wave) in August, down 10%-15% from today's price, should this bearish scenario play out.

Ethereum Classic soars 100% in nine days outperforming ETH as ‘the Merge’ approaches

July 22, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake could be a boon for the price of Ethereum Classic.

Ethereum Classic (ETC) has been outperforming its arch-rival Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) during the current crypto market rebound with the ETC/ETH pairs at 10-month highs.

Why is ETC beating ETH?

ETC's price has risen to $27 on July 22, amounting to a 100% gain in nine days after bottoming out at $13.35. Comparatively, ETH's price has seen a 64% rally in U.S. dollar terms.

*ETC/USD versus ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView*

Ethereum's rebound has been among the sharpest among the top cryptocurrencies, primarily due to the euphoria surrounding its potential network upgrade in September.

Dubbed "the Merge," the long-awaited technical update will switch Ethereum from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Anyone who believes the #Ethereum #Merge is priced in is smoking crack.

Nothing is priced-in in crypto, especially an event as convoluted and unprecedented as this.

But If I were a betting man, I’d say $ETH goes up prior to Merge, drops on Merge (unlocked coins), then goes
— Jeremy Gardner (@Disruptepreneur) July 21, 2022

Moreover, it will replace miners with stakers. As a result, the PoS switch could force existing Ethereum miners to switch to PoW chains.

Unsurprisingly, Ethereum Classic is the closest to Ethereum in terms of network design and compatibility because Ethereum Classic is the legacy chain split from Ethereum following a contentious hard fork in July 2016.

Speculators are thus anticipating Ethereum Classic to become the first choice for miners migrating from Ethereum, and this is likely one of the main reasons ETC's recent price surge.

#ETC is not just pumping. It has a FIXED monetary policy! It is programmable! Yes all Dapps on #ETH can run on $ETC. After the #ETH 2.0 merge, miners like myself will call #EthereumClassic home. Retweet for CodeIsLaw! pic.twitter.com/sABGc72NUk
— Patient Money (@MoonTigerSt) July 19, 2022

ETC price technicals lean short-term bearish

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum Classic has been reeling under the pressure of its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart below) near $27.35.

ETC/USD has witnessed a strong bearish rejection near the wave resistance on July 19, confirmed by the largest spike in its daily trading volume in almost a year. In addition, the rejection came after testing the 0.382 Fib line at around $27.47 as resistance.

ETC now consolidates inside the $22–$25 price range with its interim bias skewed toward the downside due to an "overbought" relative strength index (RSI).

ETC eyes a decline toward its 50-day EMA (the red wave) near $19 if it decisively breaks below $22—over 25% lower than July 22's price.

Conversely, a successful break above $25 and the 200-day EMA could have ETC's price rally over $30.

ETH/USD

ETHW price down 65% amid "ChainID" fiasco

ETHW listed on some exchanges despite concerns

Ethereum funding rate plumme

ETH price technicals hints at 50% breakdown

Capital rotation into Bitcoin

Ether paints classic bullish reversal pattern

Merge enthusiasm boosts ETH/BTC pair

Sell the Merge news?

Sell the Ethereum Merge news

Hawkish Federal Reserve

That giant Ether "bear flag"

ETH price chart bullish setup

Ethereum to $2K next?

ETH/BTC bull flag setup

Ethereum steps closer toward the Merge

Lido DAO (LDO)

Ethereum Classic (ETC)

Optimism (OP)

Ethereum chain split means more tokens

Bullish flipping underway

Institutional inflows gain momentum

ETH at multi-month highs against BTC

Ethereum's "rising wedge" suggests sell-off

Ether looks stronger vs. dollar

Ethereum gets rejected at $1,650

Bearish divergence

Why is ETC beating ETH?

ETC price technicals lean short-term bearish

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