Ethereum Technical Analysis: Sideways Movement as ETH Eyes Break Above $2,500

February 12, 2024 Bitcoin.com

Ethereum ‘huge Cup & Handle pattern’ reaffirms $6.5K ETH price target

November 22, 2021 Coin Telegraph

<div>Ethereum ‘huge Cup & Handle pattern’ reaffirms .5K ETH price target</div>

The bullish outlook appears as ETH’s price decline stalls near its old cup-and-handle resistance level, now acting as support and thus raising the potential of a strong rebound ahead.

Ethereum’s native asset, Ether (ETH), may rebound by nearly 60% in the coming sessions as bulls pin their hopes on a classic bullish continuation pattern.

Prices may rise to or above $6,500 from their current levels near $4,100 after completing a cup-and-handle formation, hinted Matthew Hyland, an independent on-chain analyst, in a tweet published Monday.

A perfect cup and handle retest

Hyland’s chart shows Ether returning to the old point of resistance of its previous cup and handle pattern (the yellow horizontal line in the chart below), in a corrective move that started after the cryptocurrency reached its record high of $4,867 on Nov. 10 (data from Coinbase).

Ether underwent a soft rebound after testing the cup and handle resistance as its interim support, raising possibilities of an extended move upside ahead.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView, Matthew Hyland*

In detail, the first breakout attempts out of bullish technical setups typically require additional confirmation.

Notably, these early gains tend to trap two groups of buyers: longs who enter deep in the pattern hoping for a breakout (which fails), and longs who chase the breakout but see their small profit evaporate following sudden bearish reversals, which prompt them to defend their positions.

But the tables turn when the decline stalls midway, which either leads to sideways action or a full-fledged rebound. As a result, short sellers lose confidence, while longs who survived the previous pullback gain conviction in the prevailing bullish technical setup.

A positive rebound sets a bullish feedback loop in motion, thus prompting the price to prepare for the final leg in the pattern — a strong uptrend. As Hyland hinted, Ether’s retesting the “huge Cup & Handle pattern” resistance as support appeared perfect — a potential cue for a sharp rebound.

Why $6,500?

The buy point in a cup and handle pattern emerges when the price breaks above its resistance level with an increase in trading volumes.

Traders typically estimate their profit target by measuring the distance from the cup’s right top to its bottom and then adding the number to the buy point.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring cup-and-handle profit target. Source: TradingView*

The cup’s maximum depth is nearly $2,500, while its breakout point is around $4,100. As a result, the pattern’s breakout target comes to be at or above $6,500. A Harvard study shows that cup and handles have a 65% and 68% success rate for forex and stock markets, respectively.

Conversely, breaking below the pattern’s resistance level — coinciding with multi-month rising trendline support — risks invalidating the bullish setup. That may lead Ether’s price to the next support line near $3,090.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price gets back to $3K as institutional investors pile into ETH futures

September 26, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Ethereum price gets back to K as institutional investors pile into ETH futures

Altcoin Watch

Ethereum prices recovered on Sunday amid a market-wide upside correction while receiving an additional upside boost from a bullish JPMorgan & Chase report.

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) staged a rebound on Sept. 26 following a massive decline earlier this week that saw its prices plunging to as low as $2,651 on Coinbase.

The ETH/USD exchange rate rose 3.63% to hit an intraday high of $3,030. The upside move amounted to a 14.3% upside retracement from the pair's week-to-date low at $2,651, showing that traders attempted to retain their bullish bias despite potential headwinds ahead.

Last week, Ether prices fell due to a flurry of issues arising from China. On Monday, traders dumped crypto assets en masse after a tumult in China's heavily indebted property market prompted a selloff across global stock markets.

A rebound move ensued later in the week but met with another selloff on Friday after People's Bank of China reiterated that crypto transactions are illegal. Nonetheless, Ethereum bulls maintained their foothold and pushed prices back above $3,000, a psychological resistance level.

*ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com*

The sentiments were similar across some top crypto assets, with the benchmark cryptocurrency Bitcoin hitting an intraday high of $43,767 on Coinbase following a 2.49% upside move. Meanwhile, Uniswap exchange's native asset UNI also fared higher by more than 19%, becoming the top-performing crypto asset at least in the previous 24 hours.

At the same time, Ethereum's top rivals Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) performed poorly, with ADA/USD dropping more than 5% and SOL/USD losing over 3% on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe.

Institutional demand

Ethereum gains also followed a bullish report thifrom JPMorgan & Chase. The study noted that institutional investors have started increasing their exposure in Ethereum markets.

Analysts at JPMorgan credited the ongoing craze in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible token (NFT) sector as the primary driver behind investors' interest in Ethereum. They added that the 21-day average Ethereum Futures premium climbed to 1% over spot ETH prices, citing the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data recorded since August.

*Ethereum Futures daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com*

The JPMorgan report coincided with a record amount of Ether tokens getting withdrawn out of all crypto exchanges, as per data provided by CryptoQuant. At press time, the net ETH reserves on trading platforms had dropped to 18.44 million ETH compared to 23.94 million ETH a year ago.

Independent analyst PostyXBT also anticipates a potential further price rebound in Ethereum markets, noting that the cryptocurrency's latest declines had pushed it inside a classic accumulation range, as shown in the chart below.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring its latest accumulation range. Source: PostXBT, TradingView.com*

"Weekly close equally as important for ETH today as price tests the previous range highs as support," the analyst noted.

"Seems like a logical area to make a higher low and I have bought more here for long-term bags/swing trade. RR looks favorable after a 33% correction from the local top."

Ethereum eyes rally to $3K, with 39% ETH price rebound triggering a classic bullish pattern

July 26, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Ethereum eyes rally to K, with 39% ETH price rebound triggering a classic bullish pattern

Altcoin Analysis

A falling wedge setup, as well as a rumor of Amazon preparing to accept cryptos, also boosts Ether’s upside appeal.

The price of Ether (ETH) jumped to a three-week high on Monday, triggered by similar gains in the Bitcoin (BTC) market that appeared in the wake of rumors about Amazon’s foray into the cryptocurrency sector.

A job posting from the retail giant showed that it is seeking an executive to build its “digital currency and blockchain strategy.” Meanwhile, global media reports have been speculating, based on inside sources that Amazon would start accepting Bitcoin as payments. As a result, the BTC/USD exchange rate surged to its six-week high after the news.

Ether, whose 30-day correlation with Bitcoin stands at 88%, surged likewise on Amazon’s crypto integration rumor. On Monday, the ETH/USD exchange rate soared to an intraday high of $2,390, reaching its highest level since July 8. The pair was up more than 6.7% as of 12:20 GMT.

*Ether bottomed out twice in a row near $1,700 in recent sessions. Source: TradingView*

However, measuring from its previous bottom of $1,720 on Tuesday, the net upside rebound came out to be 38.94%. The retracement looked strikingly similar to the bullish price action between June 22 and July 7, wherein ETH/USD rebounded by more than 40% after bottoming out at $1,700.

That said, Ether bottomed out twice near the $1,700 range before rebounding higher by 38%–40%. Analyst Jonny Moe spotted that mirrored retracements move and ruled them out as a double bottom pattern.

The bullish setup

In detail, double bottoms are bullish trend reversal patterns, consisting of two troughs around the same level hanging by a neckline resistance. As it plays out, the price eventually flips the neckline resistance as support and rallies higher by as much as the maximum pattern’s height.

Ether fits the description. It has formed two consecutive bottom levels at around $1,700. Meanwhile, its neckline resistance is near $2,390. Therefore, the maximum pattern’s height is $690.

*Ether's double bottom setup envisions price at or around $3,000. Source: TradingView*

Should the ETH/USD rate break above the $2,390 neckline resistance, accompanied by a spike in volume, the pair will be expected to extend its upside move by approximately $690. That would roughly take it toward $3,000 (with $2,948 serving as a psychological bullish target based on historical price action).

Confluence

Another technical pattern in play outdoes the double bottom setup’s upside target by predicting Ether prices at near $3,250.

Dubbed as a falling wedge, the pattern develops when the price trades lower inside a range that begins wide but contracts during the downtrend. It eventually prompts the price to break bullish while setting up its profit target at a level situated typically above the wedge height (if measured from the breakout point).

*Ethereum's falling wedge setup. Source: TradingView*

So, it appears, the ETH/USD exchange rate is undergoing a bullish breakout confirmed by a high-volumed close above the wedge resistance trendline. The profit-taking target for the current setup is $1,208 above the breakout level, which puts the price en route to $3,257.

$5,000 Ethereum by the end of May? On-chain data suggests so

April 14, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

The current speculative trend and Ethereum's price premium suggest that the altcoin's price could more than double over the next 7 weeks.

On April 14, the price of Ether (ETH) just hit an all-time high at $2,400 and although the price has increased more than three-fold since the beginning of this year, the current speculative premium suggests, there is a lot of room for upside.

Ether's speculative premium is far from overheated

While the current price of Ether is at around $2,375, the Realized Price, meaning the average price paid by all investors who are currently holding Ether is at $802. This means that current buyers of Ether are willing to pay 2.99x the price of what all current holders have paid on average for their Ether. While this might sound high, this multiple went as high as 6 in the last bull market.

*Ethereum: Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV). Source: Glassnode*

In order to derive at this multiple, the Market Value of Ether (current Ether price) is divided by the Realized Value (what all current holders paid on average for their Ether). In short, this multiple is called the MVRV ratio and was invented by David Puell and Murad Mahmudov. It could also be described as the multiple of the market's cost basis for an asset.

In the past, the MVRV ratio served as a good signal for when the mania got out of hand, meaning when the multiple reached a value above 4, and where a value below 1 proved to be a good buying opportunity.

The MVRV ratio could rise to 5 by end of May

The following chart shows the multiple over the course of Ether's existence. It becomes visible that it has followed an upwards trend channel since December 2019.

*Ether Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV). Source: Glassnode*

If this trend were to continue, and a similar MVRV ratio run-up like in the past is ahead of us and eventually a multiple of 5 could be reached by end of May. Based on the current Realized Price of $802, this would suggest a market price of Ether of $4,010 and would be a price increase of 71%.

Even better, as more buyers are coming into the market, the Realized Price is expected to rise over time. Over the past month alone, it increased by 15.1%. Projecting this to the end of May, the Realized Price could rise by 26.43% to around $1,014 per Ether. Based on a multiple of 5, this would result in a market price of $5,070 per Ether, which is an increase of 116%.

*Ethereum: Realized Price. Source: Glassnode*

Fasten your seatbelt

This projection is a real possibility, especially with Ether and Bitcoin breaking to new all-time highs on a regular basis. There are no guarantees when it comes to price and time targets. However, there are probabilities, and according to this on-chain indicator, the upside scenario has a much better chance to play out.

$5,000 for one Ether by end of May might sound crazy now, but $2.4k also sounded crazy a year ago when Ether closed the day at $159.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Nothing here should be considered investment or trading advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Every investment and trading move involves risk. The author owns Ether. You should conduct your own research when making a decision and/or consult with a financial advisor.

Ether analysis