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BTC price gets $36K FOMC target as Bitcoin prints 29% ‘Uptober’ gains

Coin Telegraph
BTC price gets K FOMC target as Bitcoin prints 29% ‘Uptober’ gains
Bitcoin

Bitcoin heads into November to tackle the Fed rate decision day after BTC’s price cements its second-best month of 2023.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its highest monthly close since May 2022 after “Uptober” delivered near 30% BTC price gains.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

Monthly close boosts Bitcoin bull market hopes

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms Bitcoin bulls successfully held on to upside into Nov. 1.

After navigating a choppy mid-month trading environment, hodlers were treated to a finale similar in character to October’s initial breakout.

Monitoring resource CoinGlass thus put October as the second best-performing month of 2023. Bitcoin gained 28.5%, trailing only January’s 39.6%.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Reacting, popular trader Bluntz cautioned over discounting what amounts to a “high timeframe weekly range breakout.”

“I believe this current one will be akin to the oct 2020 ones and the april 2019 one,” he wrote in part of an X post around the monthly close.

In both scenarios, BTC/USD entered a new bullish phase, with straight upside lasting several months.

BTC/USD comparison. Source: Bluntz/X

Striking a similar note, fellow social media trading personality Moustache eyed the TK Crossover indicator for a rare bull market trigger.

TK Crossover, which gets its name from a trading signal on the Ichimoku Cloud and involves two of its trendlines, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, produced a once-in-a-cycle bull flag at the monthly close, he said.

On a slightly more conservative note, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators suggested that bullish momentum, while still present, is waning compared to last month.

“Still waiting for a retest of $33k, although we may not see it until after an attempt at $36k,” it told X subscribers alongside data from one of its proprietary trading tools.

Trader eyes $36,000 BTC price after FOMC “fakeout”

Volatility, meanwhile, remains on the menu for market participants, with the week’s main macroeconomic event due later in the day.

Related: There are now nearly 40M Bitcoin addresses in profit — A new record

This comes in the form of the United States Federal Reserve announcing its interest rate policy amid a testing inflation environment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also deliver a speech and hold a press conference.

As Cointelegraph reported, market expectations are for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates at current, albeit elevated, levels.

According to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that eventuality currently lie at nearly 98%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Commenting on the potential knock-on effects for BTC price action, popular trader Crypto Tony looked to “more volatility and more movements as the talk begins and data is released.”

“I personally expect a pause and no hikes, so I expect we see a $36,000 hit on this data following a fake out down first,” he added, joining calls for a tap of the $36,000 mark.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

End of ‘Uptober’ targets $40K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Coin Telegraph
End of ‘Uptober’ targets K BTC price — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin

Bitcoin holds higher BTC price levels into what looks to be a crunch week for crypto markets across the board.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week at comfortable highs as traders square off over BTC price action to come.

As macroeconomic uncertainty continues to grow, Bitcoin is cementing its new trading zone above $30,000.

The highest weekly close since early May 2022 is the latest achievement for bulls, and so far, bid support has allowed the market to avoid a deep retracement after last week’s snap 15% gains.

How could the environment change for BTC/USD this week?

As Bitcoin heads into the October monthly close, would-be volatility catalysts are brewing — not least thanks to the increasing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

Adding to the hurdles for risk assets to overcome is the United States Federal Reserve, which will decide on interest rate adjustments on Nov. 1.

Under the hood, Bitcoin is looking better than ever, and the numbers prove it — network fundamentals are either at or circling all-time highs, continuing a trend in place for much of this year.

As price survives a mass profit-taking event at the hands of speculators, faith in further upside is proving hard to shake — but for some, the specter of a $20,000 crash is still firmly in play.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these factors and more in the weekly rundown of potential BTC price influencers for the coming days.

Countdown to the end of "Uptober"

After its highest weekly close in 18 months, Bitcoin continues to consolidate near $34,000 as the week begins.

A late-weekend surge took BTC price action to $34,700, helping add to the day’s BTC short liquidations, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

BTC liquidations chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Despite this, the last weekly close of October was a calm event compared to a week prior, and with the monthly close now in focus, market participants will be keen to see if “Uptober” retains its bullish status.

Eyeing relative strength index (RSI) behavior, popular analyst Matthew Hyland was optimistic on the day.

“Current Bitcoin position would eliminate any possibility of bearish divergence forming on the weekly later on off the prior RSI high,” he wrote in an X post.

“This is extremely good for the bullish side and worst possible close for the bearish side.”

An accompanying chart showed RSI hitting higher highs on weekly timeframes. In a previous post, Hyland said that a weekly close at current levels would constitute a wider breakout.

RSI, which traditionally acts as an overbought signal at a given price when above 70, stood at 69.7 at the time of writing, with BTC/USD at $34,300, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI. Source: TradingView

Similarly buoyant about what could happen to BTC price strength this week was popular trader Titan of Crypto.

In one of his latest X updates, he used the Ichimoku cloud to argue that a breakout toward $40,000 was on the cards.

As Cointelegraph reported last week, $40,000 is a popular target for bulls, but some remain notably surprised by the strength of the recent rally.

Trader Bluntz argued that it was “wild that we broke 32k with conviction held and have now found acceptance above 34k.”

“The doubt and disbelief is still lingering,” he continued in part of X commentary, suggesting that many retained a bear market mentality.

$20,000 BTC price dive "worst case scenario"

Despite a week of holding higher levels, Bitcoin is far from convincing everyone that they will endure.

As Cointelegraph continues to report, $20,000 is a crash level which is still very much on the radar for some market participants.

The site of both a CME futures gap and the psychologically significant 2017 all-time high, $20,000 has not left traders’ consciousness seven months after BTC/USD last traded there.

Commenting on the prospect of such a move becoming reality, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital described it as a “worst case scenario.”

The timeframe for this to occur is the five-and-a-half months remaining until the next block subsidy halving event.

“That would be a -42% drop from here,” he wrote at the weekend.

“How likely is it that this could happen? Worst-case scenarios typically have a low probability of occurring.”

Rekt Capital had previously warned over potential extensive BTC price downside at the hands of a double top pattern for 2023, this subsequently invalidated with last week’s move.

Social media was naturally not short of those disregarding a $20,000 comeback altogether, among them CredibleCrypto, who described the eventuality as “near impossible.”

Bitcoin, he continued on the day, was in line to “melt through” the $40,000 mark.

Others highlighted necessary levels to hold in order to avoid a rapid unwinding of recent progress.

“Looking for Bitcoin to hold this mid range retest and S/R flip,” analyst Mark Cullen wrote alongside a summary chart.

“If it breaks back below then i think the lower sweep could still be on the cards. Bulls don't really want to see BTC trade for any time back below 32.5k, but a wick below to take liquidity isn't off the table.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

Trader Pentoshi meanwhile said that conditions had not changed on longer timeframes.

FOMC rate move due as crypto ditches stocks correlation

With trouble increasing in the Middle East and the impacts of war increasingly being felt outside the region, Bitcoin is seeing its second major conflict of the past two years.

Hodlers have a constant potential source of volatility in the background — something which this week will spar with U.S. macro data.

On Nov. 1, the Fed will meet to decide on whether benchmark interest rates should rise — an event which can form a short-term volatility catalyst in its own right.

Bitcoin has nonetheless dismissed Fed rate decisions in recent months, this despite persistent inflation repeatedly beating market expectations.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave rates unchanged this week.

“We have a huge week ahead,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a summary.

Kobeissi touched on what could become a fresh BTC price headwind — a correction on the S&P 500. Previously correlated with stocks, Bitcoin’s more recent divergence may be put to the test.

Over the past month, the S&P 500 has lost 4%.

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

In commentary last week, however, research firm Santiment not only confirmed the waning stocks correlation but also said that this in itself was a sign that the crypto bull market was back.

Bitcoin mining difficulty, hash rate top previous peaks

For Bitcoin network fundamentals, there is no reason to pause for thought.

At its latest automated readjustment on Oct. 30, difficulty increased by 2.35% — hitting another all-time high.

Now at 62.46 trillion, difficulty reflects that competition among miners is more intense than ever — as Cointelegraph reported, it has never been so complex to mine a single bitcoin.

Hash rate tells an identical story, this circling 493 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to the latest raw data estimates from statistics resource MiningPoolStats.

Commenting on the performance of both difficulty and hash rate, itself near record highs, James van Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, described the latter’s progress as a “surge.”

Jaran Mellerud, a mining analyst at crypto insights firm Arcane Research, predicted that the trend would continue.

“Bitcoin's hashrate will likely continue surging due to the price pump coupled with the fact that miners are trying to outpace each other in upgrading fleets ahead of the halving,” he argued.

“I wouldn't be surprised if we see 500 EH/s before the New Year.”
Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Greed matches BTC price all-time highs

Waiting in the wings and vying with RSI for upside potential is the classic crypto sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

Related: First Bitcoin ETF trades $1.5B as GBTC ‘discount’ echoes $69K BTC price

Having lingered in a narrow range for months on end, Fear & Greed staged a firm return in line with Bitcoin’s push higher — but unlike BTC price action, it has returned to November 2021 levels.

The latest data shows the Index hitting 72/100 in recent days. This is firmly within the “greed” category and matches its position just days after Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time highs of $69,000 nearly two years ago.

Fear & Greed tends to reach extreme levels before a significant trend change occurs in price action.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Bitcoin price tests $27K support as Fed holds interest rates at FOMC

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price tests K support as Fed holds interest rates at FOMC
Bitcoin

Bitcoin weathers the Fed's decision to keep rates at their previous levels, while Chair Jerome Powell reveals the potential for another hike to come this year.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw snap volatility on Sep. 20 as the United States Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at twenty-year highs.

BTC price digests Fed rate pause

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as it reacted to the rate decision and accompanying commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to keep rates at their previous levels set in July this year.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run,” a press release stated.

“In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”
Fed funds rate chart. Source: St. Louis Fed

The move was overwhelmingly expected ahead of time by markets, with a 99% probability of a rate hike pause already in place, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The Fed’s language remained cautious over the future of inflation, however, with no guarantee that conditions would become more lax.

“In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals,” the release continued.

Reacting, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested that no more rate hikes would come in future. Bitcoin, he predicted, would benefit.

“No rate hike from the FED. My best guess: we're done with the hiking policy,” part of an X post read.

“Bitcoin is likely to start trending up from here (yes, a fakeout usually happens at the news).”

Powell hints that another rate hike could come in 2023

BTC price action saw jitters as the decision came, with Powell still to complete his speech at the subsequent press conference at the time of writing.

Related: Bitcoin price all-time high will precede 2024 halving — New prediction

The road to getting inflation down to the Fed's 2% target, he said, had "a long way to go."

"If the economy evolves as projected, the median participants projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.6% at the end of this year, 5.1% at the end of 2024 and 3.9% at the end of 2025," he said.

Powell noted that the medium projection for the end of the year was unchanged from before, but had moved up 0.5% for the end of the next two years.

BTC/USD continued to hold above $27,000 as a result, with no major exit of the recent intraday trading range.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Bitcoin analysis predicts ‘spicy’ BTC price into FOMC as $27K holds

Coin Telegraph
<div>Bitcoin analysis predicts 'spicy' BTC price into FOMC as K holds</div>
Bitcoin

Bitcoin market gurus anticipate BTC price volatility to hit around the latest FOMC interest rates decision and Fed press conference.

Bitcoin (BTC) held $27,000 into Sep. 20 as the key macroeconomic date of the cryptocurrency trading week arrived.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Market "set to accommodate" BTC price volatility

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC price focus shifting upward compared to the week prior.

Crypto markets showed conviction into the decision on interest rates by the United States Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was due to announce its latest changes at 2pm Eastern time on the day.

As Cointelegraph reported, expectations almost unanimously favored rates staying at current levels, with the odds still at 99% at the time of writing, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

“The market is pricing a 99% probability that the Fed are on hold at this meeting. And the data is conducive for that, core CPI inflation is now running at the Fed’s target on a 3-month annualized basis,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro told X subscribers in part of his latest analysis.

“Potentially the first meeting where the Fed recognize that inflation is trending on the right path…”
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Despite this, the event was tipped to deliver short-term volatility.

Analyzing the state of the BTC/USD order book on largest global exchange Binance, monitoring resource Material Indicators said that liquidity around spot price was noticeably thin.

“If one thing in particular stands out, it's that liquidity is thinly distributed through the range,” part of its commentary stated.

“We could see some walls go up, but for now it appears the order book is set to accommodate more volatility.”

Material Indicators added that the subsequent speech and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell should lead to further “spicy” BTC price action.

An accompanying chart showed some bid-side liquidity parked at $26,650, while substantial bids still only at $25,000. To the upside, sellers lay in wait at $27,450 — the local BTC price high from September.

BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

Bitcoin traders eye key levels

Continuing, others hoped for some range levels to be challenged as part of the FOMC reaction.

 Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands hit key zone as BTC price fights for $27K

“Good chance we take out some stops today during the volatility,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades suggested.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Fellow trader Jelle said that he expected “choppy waters” on Bitcoin, while scanning broader exchange activity, trader Skew predicted a lively FOMC trading environment.

Crypto Tony meanwhile flagged $26,800 as the line in the sand for Bitcoin bulls to protect.

“This is what i am looking for to remain in my long position. Must hold above $26,800 support zone, or we risk creating a deviation,” he commented alongside his own chart.

Continuing, others hoped for some range levels to be challenged as part of the FOMC reaction.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Bitcoin investors are bullish on the US Fed’s $100B loss

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin investors are bullish on the US Fed’s 0B loss
Bitcoin

The debt ceiling is unlikely to hold as the government faces increased pressure from interest rate payments, a potential catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. Federal Reserve made a significant announcement on Sept. 14, revealing accumulated losses of $100 billion in 2023. What’s more, this situation is expected to worsen for the Fed, according to Reuters. But for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), this may actually be a blessing in disguise. 

The Fed in the red

The primary reason behind this financial setback is that the interest payments on the Fed’s debt have surpassed the earnings generated from its holdings and the services it provides to the financial sector.

As a result of this development, investors are now scrambling to grasp how this will impact interest rates and the demand for provably scarce assets like BTC.

Fed earnings remittances due to the U.S. Treasury, USD (millions). Source: St. Louis Fed

Some analysts are of the opinion that the Fed’s losses, which commenced a year ago, could potentially double by 2024. The central bank categorizes these negative results as “deferred assets,” arguing that there’s no immediate necessity to cover them.

The Fed used to generate revenue for U.S. Treasury

Historically, the Federal Reserve has been a profitable institution. However, the absence of profits does not hinder the central bank’s ability to conduct monetary policy and achieve its objectives. 

Related: How do the Fed’s interest rates impact the crypto market?

The fact that the Fed’s balance sheet has incurred losses isn’t surprising, especially given the substantial interest rate hikes, which escalated from near-zero in March 2022 to the current level of 5.25%. Even if interest rates remain unchanged, Reuters suggested that the Fed’s losses are likely to persist for some time. This can be attributed to the expansionary measures implemented in 2020 and 2021 when the central bank aggressively acquired bonds to stave off a recession.

Even if interest rates remain unchanged, Reuters suggested that the Fed’s losses are likely to persist for some time. This can be attributed to the expansionary measures implemented in 2020 and 2021 when the central bank aggressively acquired bonds to stave off a recession.

In essence, the Fed functions like a conventional bank, as it must provide yields to its depositors, which primarily consist of banks, money managers and financial institutions.

An article in Barron's effectively illustrates the impact of the $100 billion loss, stating,

“The Fed banks’ losses don’t increase federal budget deficits. But the now-vanished big profits that they used to send the Treasury did help hold down the deficit, which is $1.6 trillion so far this fiscal year..”
U.S. total gross debt and debt ceiling, USD (trillions). Source: BBC

Clearly, this situation is unsustainable, particularly considering that the U.S. debt has now reached $33 trillion. While one might point fingers at the Fed for raising interest rates initially, it’s essential to recognize that without such measures, inflation would not have returned to 3.2%, and the cost of living would have continued to exert pressure on the economy. 

Ultimately, the significant demand for short-term bonds and money market funds is a reflection of the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during the peak of the pandemic. Nevertheless, even if one settles for a fixed 5% yield on a three-month investment, there’s no guarantee that inflation will remain below this threshold for an extended period.

Furthermore, investors are confronted with the risk of dilution each time the U.S. Federal Reserve injects liquidity into the market, whether through the sale of assets from its balance sheet or when the Treasury raises the debt limit.

Ultimately, it’s improbable that fixed-income returns will outpace inflation for another 12 months because, at some point, the government will exhaust its funds and be compelled to issue additional Treasurys.

Real estate and stocks no longer a reliable store of value

There remains a significant unanswered question regarding which sector or asset class will reap the most benefits when inflation catches up with short-term Treasury yields. This uncertainty arises as the S&P 500 stands just 7% below its all-time high, while the real estate market exhibits signs of strain due to mortgage rates hitting their highest levels in over two decades.

On one hand, the S&P 500 index doesn’t appear excessively valued, trading at 20x estimated earnings — especially when compared with previous peaks that reached 30x multiples or even higher. However, investors are apprehensive that the Fed may find itself compelled to further raise interest rates in order to combat the prevailing inflationary pressures.

As the cost of capital continues its ascent, corporate earnings will come under pressure, leaving investors with no secure harbor for their cash reserves.

Presently, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may not seem like a viable hedge option, but this perspective could shift as investors realize that the U.S. government’s debt ceiling is essentially boundless. Thus, it might make sense to gradually accumulate these assets regardless of short-term price trends.

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

FOMC versus BTC price ‘local bottom’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Coin Telegraph
FOMC versus BTC price ‘local bottom’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin

Bitcoin network fundamentals have never looked better, as optimism trickles back when it comes to BTC price strength in a key Fed rate decision week.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with optimism as traders greet the first green weekly candle in over a month.

BTC price strength appears to be gradually improving after a weak August and start of September, with BTC/USD climbing toward $27,000.

A solid weekly close provides the backdrop to what promises to be an interesting few days, which will include a key United States macroeconomic event as a potential volatility driver.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet to decide on interest rate policy, and any surprises could have significant repercussions for risk assets, including crypto.

Elsewhere, things are looking promising for Bitcoin, with network fundamentals set to surge higher to new records.

Strength “under the hood” is similarly being reflected in hodler behavior, with wallet numbers continuing to shoot higher regardless of BTC price action.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more as Bitcoin begins what is likely its most eagerly-awaited week of September.

Trader eyes BTC price “local bottom”

Bitcoin offered little volatility over the weekend, but calmer trading conditions are already being challenged into the new week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

The Sept. 17 weekly close soon gave way to upside volatility, and at the time of writing, bulls are attempting to build on that foundation to crack new month-to-date highs.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Popular trader Credible Crypto thus suggested that the weekend zone could well form a “local bottom.”

“This region continues to be defended, with buyers stepping in here once again. Has the makings of a local bottom/base being formed imo,” he told X (formerly Twitter) subscribers overnight, alongside a chart of order book liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance.

“I think we probs push back up to 27k+ soon.”
BTC/USD order book data for Binance annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X

A prior post noted the lack of promise in shorting at weekend levels, with bid liquidity improving.

The weekly close meanwhile excited Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, who saw key support holding at the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

“Bitcoin is closing above the 200-Week EMA, which is vital for bullish continuation,” he explained.

“Next week we should continue to do so and price starts to look similar to the 2015/2016 cycle.”

Van de Poppe uploaded a chart showing the interplay between the spot price and the 200-week EMA, currently at $25,700, since 2020.

“Markets are consolidating with a weekly close strongly above the 200-Week EMA for Bitcoin. The chances of the correction to be finished are increasing day by day,” he added in a separate post.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Some are staying sober on the outlook for Bitcoin into 2024. Among them is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who continues to eye the potential for a bearish double-top pattern to play out on weekly timeframes.

“Make no mistake - Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market,” he wrote in part of weekend X analysis.

“Long-term the outlook is bullish. Mid-term? Over the next 7 months, we may or may not get 1 last major correction. Will it happen? It would be wise to at least be ready for it if it does.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

FOMC volatility due with rate pause odds at 99%

This week, the word on everyone’s lips is FOMC — the Federal Open Market Committee — which will meet to decide on interest rates going forward.

If history is a guide, the Sept. 20 decision will induce at least some form of volatility across risk assets, with Bitcoin and crypto no exception.

The landscape surrounding the latest FOMC meeting is mixed, with last week’s macro data showing inflation beating expectations, yet markets overwhelmingly believe that the Fed will not raise rates further to combat it.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of rates remaining unchanged are almost unanimous.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

This could reduce the impact of the FOMC event, but conversely, a curveball decision that goes against market appraisals would be felt all the more keenly.

“This week sets up the rest of 2023,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized while highlighting upcoming macro data releases and more.

“Fed guidance on Wednesday sets the tone for the next few meetings. Expect to see lots of volatility this week.”

Explaining the likely outcome of FOMC, crypto and macro insight resource Ecoinometrics suggested that the market odds were no surprise based on Fed signals.

“There will be no rate hike at the FOMC meeting on September 20. That’s what the Fed Funds futures are pricing,” it wrote at the weekend.

“And actually they have been very consistent about that for a long time now. The fact that the latest inflation numbers aren’t exactly going in the right direction didn’t change anything to that.”
Fed funds futures annotated chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/X

An accompanying chart added that the market “never had doubts” about what would happen in September.

Difficulty, hash rate return to new records

Back to Bitcoin and a return to the “up only” style of fundamental growth is set to characterize the coming week.

Mining difficulty, which dipped 2.65% at its last automated readjustment two weeks ago, will cancel out its losses on Sept. 19.

The latest estimates from BTC.com suggest that difficulty will increase by a solid 4.6% — taking it to new all-time highs in the process.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

2023 has seen a broad uptrend in difficulty challenged only briefly, even as spot price action delivered more challenging conditions.

The story is the same for hash rate — the estimated processing power deployed by miners — which continues to set new records of its own.

A conspicuous spike into the new week has become a talking point in its own right, with optimism increasing among commentators as a result.

“The bitcoin network hashrate is at an all time high,” Nicholas Cary, co-founder of Bitcoin data resource Blockchain.com, noted earlier this month.

“What does this mean? The difficulty is a measure of how difficult it is to mine a Bitcoin block, or in more technical terms, to find a hash below a given target. A high difficulty means that it will take more computing power to mine the same number of blocks, making the network more secure against attacks.”
Bitcoin estimated hash rate chart. Source: Blockchain

Blockchain.com estimated hash rate at 422 exahashes per second (EH/s) as of Sept. 17, while BTC.com currently puts the figure at 430 EH/s.

Bitcoin address numbers reach multiyear highs

Just as there is no stopping Bitcoin miners, the user base likewise appears to be relentlessly expanding.

The number of new BTC wallets being created is now at its highest since late 2017, the time of Bitcoin’s old all-time high of $20,000, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows.

Bitcoin new addresses chart. Source: Andre Dragosch/X

According to the firm’s address tracking metric, even the later trip to $69,000 failed to spark as big a reaction in new address creation.

Active addresses, however, do mimic mid-2021, returning to those levels for the first time this month.

The data was uploaded to X by Andre Dragosch, head of research at crypto investment firm Deutsche Digital Assets. Dragosch quizzed whether BTC price performance would copy the return to form across the Glassnode metrics.

“All-time high in addresses with 0.01 Bitcoin or less,” James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto insights firm CryptoSlate, added about further Glassnode data.

“Fifth or so strongest accumulation from this cohort in the past five years. This asset continues to be cornered by a small cohort.”
Bitcoin wallets with a balance of 0.01 BTC or less chart. Source: James Straten/X

Crypto fear is never far away

While things may be looking up across the Bitcoin ecosystem, the average crypto investor is yet to regain their confidence.

Related: Bitcoin price all-time high will precede 2024 halving — New prediction

According to the latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the mood characterizing crypto continues to be one of “fear.”

The extent of the cold feet is modest — the Index, which normalizes sentiment on a 0-100 scale, is now just below its “neutral” 50 mark.

Fear has nonetheless dominated since mid-August, with price triggers a key influencer.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Analyzing net unrealized profit and loss data among the BTC supply, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Titan of Crypto revealed what he called a “striking correlation” between this year’s environment and that seen in the run-up to previous Bitcoin bull runs.

“I think we might witness a similar price action as Bitcoin had in the first 2 cycles,” part of his commentary forecast.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Bitcoin price settles at $26.5K as key Fed inflation week dawns

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price settles at .5K as key Fed inflation week dawns
Bitcoin

Bitcoin and crypto brace for FOMC, while BTC price action delivers a refreshingly calm weekend.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $26,500 into the Sep. 17 weekly close after new September highs gave way to calmer conditions.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin saves volatility for weekly close

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price performance stabilizing over the weekend.

The largest cryptocurrency had seen a trip to $26,880 two days prior, this marking its highest levels of the month so far.

Summarizing the state of the Binance BTC/USD order book, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto noted that a cluster of bid liquidity was buoying the market.

“Some seller absorption happening here- this level being defended atm,” he wrote in part of accompanying comments on X (formerly Twitter).

Amid consolidatory movement, fellow trader Crypto Tony eyed two potential scenarios — with $26,000 still holding as support regardless.

“I am still looking for that dip down to $26,100 and a bounce for a long trigger,” he told X subscribers on the day.

“Either that or if we just reclaim $26,600 highs i will look to long.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X

Looking more closely at exchange behavior, trader Skew highlighted specific short-term trends among traders, with spot entities selling into bounces.

Can FOMC shift BTC price range?

Beyond the weekly close, crypto market participants were eagerly awaiting the coming week’s key macroeconomic event from the United States Federal Reserve.

Related: Bitcoin price all-time high will precede 2024 halving — New prediction

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Sep. 20 is set to decide benchmark interest rates, with markets overwhelmingly expecting them to remain unchcnaged.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a surprise scenario at just 2%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, however, Bitcoin has recently cooled its kneejerk reactions to macro data prints, and going into FOMC, some believed that the status quo would remain.

“Next weeks FOMC and Interest Rate decisions should induce some volatility, but BTC will likely continue to trade within $25k - $27k in the short-term…,” popular trader Crypto Santa concluded in part of recent X commentary.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Santa/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Double top ‘likely’ confirmed — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Coin Telegraph
<div>Double top 'likely' confirmed — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week</div>
Bitcoin

BTC price weakness shows as Bitcoin analysts debate the likelihood of a return toward $20,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins a key macro week in a weak place as 2023 BTC action begins to look like a “double top.”

After a disappointing weekly close below $26,000, BTC/USD is struggling to catch a bid amid a return to low volatility.

Analysts, already predicting downside, continue to forecast new local lows, and liquidity conditions are increasingly supporting their argument.

Are there any silver linings on the horizon? One on-chain metric suggests that Bitcoin is “in the midst” of a major shakeout akin to March 2020.

A rebound to “fair value” may also come courtesy of Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which has almost fully retraced its year-to-date gains to reach its lowest levels since the first week of January.

Cointelegraph takes a look at these topics and more in the weekly rundown of key BTC price triggers.

Weekly close makes BTC price double top a reality

Bitcoin closing out the week below key trendlines was already expected, but the reality may be worse than many care to admit.

That is the conclusion of popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who warned that a close below $26,000 would “likely” validate a double top structure on the BTC weekly chart.

This currently takes the form of Bitcoin’s two 2023 local tops, both above $31,000, with a retracement to $26,000 inbetween, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC price weakness now risks continuation downhill thanks to the latest close.

“Weekly close below ~$26,000 likely confirms the Double Top breakdown,” Rekt Capital wrote in part of an X post.

Further analysis noted that $26,000 had formed support for three weeks running, and that finally deciding its fate was thus significant on weekly timeframes.

With BTC/USD nonetheless seeing its lowest weekly close since March, popular chartist JT told X followers that there was still room for optimism. This, he argued, was in the form of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $25,600.

“This week candle was a spinning top doji, which is a candle that indicates indecision,” he wrote.

“What’s quite remarkable though is that the past three weekly closes have closed within $400 of each other! Talk about boring and flat price action! The good news is we closed well above our weekly 200EMA ($25.6K).”
BTC/USD 1-week chart with 200EMA. Source: TradingView

Cointelegraph previously covered the significance of the 200-week EMA within the current BTC price environment.

$20,000 futures gap next?

Bitcoin slowly heading lower has refueled a debate over its ability to repeat classic chart behavior.

This focuses on the largest cryptocurrency’s habit of “filling gaps” on CME futures markets, which appear on weekends and holidays.

Here, the difference in price between one week’s close and the next week’s open often forms a magnet for BTC price action in future — but not always immediately.

BTC/USD often “fills” gaps within days or even hours of futures markets resuming, but over time, some have been left behind. A major gap on the radar currently lurks at $20,000.

“That’s the only real CME gap that we have in terms of downside movement from current price levels,” Rekt Capital explained in his latest YouTube update on Sep. 6.

He continued by noting a now-filled gap from June 2022 was now acting as resistance after functioning as support and resistance at various points since its creation.

“This CME gap has been filled multiple times already and it’s been flipped into a new resistance,” he said, noting that the aforementioned double top completing would likewise feed into a return to the $20,000 zone.

Under such circumstances, a potential BTC price range would form, with the $20,000 gap and previously-filled gap functioning as support and resistance, respectively.

BTC/USD chart with CME gaps highlighted (screenshot). Source: Rekt Capital/YouTube

Others, however, were undecided about the probability of such a far-off gap being revisited.

“Bitcoin has a long history with CME futures Gaps. These Gaps tend to get filled sooner or later. But there's no guarantee they will,” popular trader Titan of Crypto argued.

Uploading a chart of historical gaps, he referenced another which is yet to fill, this time below $10,000.

“For some of you who are in crypto for quite some time, you may recall the $9.6k gap from September 2020. Back then everyone was expecting this gap to get filled so they can finally buy Bitcoin again. Guess what? It remains unfilled to this day and many got back in at $20k+, fomoing like crazy,” he wrote.

“There is a gap that is still unfilled at $20k-$21k. Will it get filled? Well everything is possible. Yet until the market structure is broken, it's just wishful thinking.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Titan of Crypto/X

Liquidity increases at March levels

Also feeding into bearish BTC price predictions is the general state of liquidity on BTC/USD markets.

Liquidity heatmaps are a common feature in crypto trading circles, helping to see where bid and ask concentrations lie and how these are manipulated by their owners.

Currently, a large block of bid liquidity is congregating around $24,000 — as Cointelegraph reported, the lowest such concentration since March.

“A a dip into that liquidity below looks a decent probability,” pseudonymous X user Honeybadger thus predicted, uploading one such heatmap.

In its latest heatmap release for largest-volume global exchange Binance, meanwhile, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators continued to flag $24,750 as a key level for bulls to retain.

“Whatever the case, bulls must defend the LL at $24,750 to hang on to any hopium of seeing another pump. Printing a new LL buys a ticket to Bearadise,” part of accompanying commentary stated.

CPI leads “huge” pre-FOMC week

After a quiet start to September, the macroeconomic landscape is returning as a potential source of risk asset volatility.

This week, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) August print forms the focus ahead of a key interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.

“Huge last week before the September Fed meeting,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of preliminary commentary, noting that “lots of volatility” lies ahead.

Due on Sep. 14, CPI is well known as a volatility catalyst for BTC price action, but recent prints have failed to alter the status quo for long.

Crypto market participants nonetheless include its release in their roadmaps, while the figures are apt to impact market expectations of what the Fed will do to benchmark interest rates.

Its next decision will come on Sep. 20, and according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, confidence is high that rates will remain unchanged — a potential boon to risk assets, including crypto.

As of Sep. 11, the odds of a pause in hikes were over 90%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Back to March 2020

As Cointelegraph reported at the weekend, one on-chain metric is signaling that current BTC price action may be more significant than traders believe.

Related: Bitcoin all-time high in 2025? BTC price idea reveals ‘bull run launch’

UTXOs in Loss, which measures the number of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) from on-chain transactions worth less than they were at the time of purchase, are at their highest since March 2020.

As noted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, UTXOs in Loss does not measure the amount of BTC in loss, but rather the number of UTXOs involved.

A research update from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant nonetheless warned that Bitcoin may be dealing with a “black swan” event similar to that which sent BTC price down 60% over three years ago.

“Given that the current level of the ‘UTXOs in loss’ indicator mirrors that of the Black Swan event between March and April 2020 (due to the Coronavirus), those anticipating another Black Swan event might want to consider whether we are already in the midst of the event they are waiting for,” its author, CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, wrote.

Bitcoin UTXOs in Loss chart. Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

Bitcoin price breaks from range with drop below $28K, and options tilt toward BTC bears

Coin Telegraph
Bitcoin price breaks from range with drop below K, and options tilt toward BTC bears
Coin Telegraph

$570 million in weekly BTC options expire on Friday, and the recent macro and crypto news events have further tilted the advantage to bearish traders.

On August 16, Bitcoin (BTC) closed below $29,000 for the first time in 56 days. Analysts quickly pointed to this week’s FOMC minutes, which expressed concerns about inflation and the need to increase interest rates, as the likely cause.

Despite the immediate reasons for the drop, the upcoming $580 million Bitcoin options expiry on Friday has favored the bears. They could potentially make a $140 million profit on August 18, adding to the downward pressure on Bitcoin and complicating BTC’s search for a bottom.

Federal Reserve minutes did not impact traditional markets

On Aug. 16, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the 2% inflation target. This pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to their highest level since October 2007, prompting investors to shift away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies to favor cash positions and companies that are well prepared for such a scenario.

Notably, Bitcoin had already fallen to $29,000, its lowest point in 9 days, prior to the release of the Fed minutes. The impact of the minutes was limited, especially considering the 10-year yield had been rising, indicating skepticism about the Fed's ability to control inflation.

Additionally, on August 17, S&P 500 index futures only dropped by 0.6% compared to their pre-event level on August 16. During the same time, WTI crude oil gained 1.7%, while gold traded down 0.3%.

Concerns about China's economy might have also contributed to the decline. The country reported lower-than-expected retail sales growth and fixed asset investment, potentially affecting the demand for cryptocurrencies.

Although the exact causes of the price drop remain uncertain, there's a possibility that Bitcoin could reverse its trend after the weekly options expiry on August 18.

Bitcoin bulls cast the wrong bet

Between August 8 and August 9, the price of Bitcoin briefly crossed the $29,700 mark, sparking optimism among traders using options contracts.

Deribit Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Aug. 18. Source: Deribit

The 0.57 put-to-call ratio reflects the difference in open interest between the $365 million call (buy) options and the $205 million put (sell) options. However, the outcome will be lower than the $570 million total open interest since the bulls were caught by surprise with the latest price drop below $29,000.

For example, if Bitcoin’s price trades at $28,400 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 18, only $3 million worth of call options will be accounted for. This distinction arises from the fact that the right to purchase Bitcoin at $27,000 or $28,000 becomes invalid if BTC trades below those levels upon expiration.

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 18 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies depending on the expiration price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

  • Between $26,000 and $28,000: 100 calls vs. 5,300 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $140 million.
  • Between $28,000 and $28,500: 100 calls vs. 3,900 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $60 million.
  • Between $28,500 and $29,500: 600 calls vs. 1,300 puts. The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $20 million.

Given the growing concern among investors about an upcoming economic slowdown due to actions taken by central banks to control inflation, it's likely that Bitcoin bears will maintain their advantage. This trend isn't limited to the upcoming Friday's expiry and is expected to continue, especially since the chances of the BTC bulls' primary short-term goal – the approval of a spot ETF – are quite slim.

As a result, those on the bullish side find themselves in a tough spot. The success of their call (buy) options relies on Bitcoin's expiry price going above $28,500. The most likely scenario, where bears could walk away with a favorable outcome of $140 million, suggests the potential for a further correction in Bitcoin's price.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BTC price breakout by end of August? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Coin Telegraph
BTC price breakout by end of August? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Analysis

Bitcoin stays frustratingly quiet after the weekly close, but BTC price forecasts are giving ever-shorter breakout deadlines.

Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a classic August picture as it starts the new week — volatility is nowhere to be seen.

In a continuation of some of the quietest BTC price action ever seen, the largest cryptocurrency remains locked in a narrow trading range below $30,000.

Whether it be long or short timeframes, Bitcoin is giving market observers cause for increasing frustration. Despite a tug-of-war between bulls and bears on exchanges, neither party seems able to set a new BTC price trend in motion.

Will the status quo remain this week?

With few macroeconomic triggers in store, catalysts for change will need to come from elsewhere. Whales are accumulating, data suggests, fueling an argument that Bitcoin is preparing its next major breakout phase in classic style.

A similar conclusion comes from some of the narrowest volatility recorded for Bitcoin courtesy of the Bollinger Bands metric, with current conditions rivalling September 2016 and January 2023.

By definition, it may simply be a matter of time before history repeats itself.

Bitcoin copycat move begins new rangebound week

The weekly close saw a modicum of volatility return to Bitcoin spot price performance, but just like last week, this was short lived.

Following the new weekly candle open, BTC/USD dipped to test $29,000 before returning to its previous position — one that still holds at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, noted the similarities while repeating his view that $29,700 is the level for bulls to reclaim.

Over the weekend, Van de Poppe described the lack of volatility overall as “extremely astonishing.”

“The classic dump on Sunday evening took place on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers alongside a chart showing relevant areas of interest.

“Holding onto support, all good. Continue the range. Party starts above $29,700.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades held a similar opinion on short-term movements, noting that even weekend conditions were trending toward unusually calm extremes.

“Dancing around the CME Close price as expected. It's been a long time since we've seen anything different,” he summarized.

“Volatility this time around was extremely low. Even for a weekend.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

An accompanying chart put the CME Bitcoin futures closing price for the week prior at $29,465 as the focal point for the start of the week.

Weekly close clinches key BTC pric level

The weekly close itself nonetheless did manage to offer a glimmer of hope for those analyzing longer-term trends.

Bitcoin, by a hair, managed to close the weekly candle above $29,250 — a key level highlighted in recent weeks by popular trader and analyst, Rekt Capital.

In an X post just before the event, Rekt Capital referenced previous BTC price behavior after a close at $29,250 or higher.

“BTC upside wicked into the ~$30200 region, much like last week and in April 2023,” he noted.

“But if $BTC is able to Weekly Close above ~$29250, then that upside wick won't be as bearish.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Providing a potential headwind was relative strength index (RSI) data, which on 1-week timeframes continued to print a bearish divergence with price.

“Weekly Bearish Divergence for BTC will continue to remain intact unless the RSI is able to break its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about the phenomenon.

BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Historical data gives little clue as to how BTC/USD might behave before the monthly close.

As Cointelegraph reported, August is a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance, and so far, Bitcoin has barely moved compared to the end of July.

Data from monitoring resource Coinglass shows that current gains of 0.6% mark Bitcoin’s quietest August month on record.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Low volatility spurs BTC price breakout predictions

It is hard to avoid the topic of volatility — or lack of it — when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin.

Despite heavy press coverage, even outside the crypto realm, the near total absence of snap price moves has been the defining characteristic of BTC price action for much of Q2.

The latest data lays bare just how static the landscape has become — and what should come afterward.

The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently measures 9.57 on weekly timeframes, rapidly retracing to all-time lows from the start of this year.

What happened when Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in January is no secret, with its Q1 upside totalling 70%.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

“The volatility on Bitcoin is getting lower and lower,” Van de Poppe thus stated.

“A matter of 1-2 weeks before we'll be having a big move on the markets.”

Similar findings come from the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, now also repeating behavior from the start of 2023.

Bollinger bands narrowing preclude a price breakout, and while unknown whether this would be up or down, the extent of price compression has market participants preparing for dramatic change.

“The spread between the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin is just 2.9% and is as tight as it has ever been,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, wrote in part of an X post on Aug. 14.

Checkmate revealed that Bitcoin had printed tighter Bollinger bands just twice in its history — in September 2016 and January 2023.

“Wild stuff,” he concluded.

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range annotated chart. Source: Checkmate/X

Whale "reaccumulation" narrative strengthens

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on interesting shifts among Bitcoin whales underneath stale BTC price action.

This is continuing, analysis shows, and what looks like accumulation is becoming an ever-larger talking point for those seeking signs of the bull market returning.

“In the past two weeks, about 10 Bitcoin whales, each holding at least 1,000 $BTC (worth a minimum of $29.4 million), have joined the network!” popular trader Ali noted at the weekend.

Glassnode data puts the total number of addresses with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC at 2,015 as of Aug. 13 — up from 2,005 on Aug. 1.

Bitcoin Number of Addresses with Balance over 1,000 BTC chart. Source: Glassnode

Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, flagged the emergence of new whales on major exchange Bitfinex as proof that “something is brewing under the surface.”

“Strong start off the cycle bottom, now in re-accumulation mode,” on-chain and cycle analyst Root continued, pointing to realized price figures.

Bitcoin’s realized price refers to the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved.

Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: Root/X

Fed FOMC minutes lead cool macro week

Crypto markets are in for a relatively quiet macroeconomic data period, in line with the summer lull.

Related: Bitcoin’s sideways price action leads traders to focus on SHIB, UNI, MKR and XDC

This week, while “big” for U.S. consumer data, has Federal Reserve minutes as its main highlight.

Those minutes will show the attitudes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members toward interest rate policy as they were when rates were hiked last month.

Risk asset traders continue to look toward the September FOMC meeting for a potential rate hike pause — something which should benefit crypto as well.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that happening stand at almost 90%, with the meeting still over a month away.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

Any knee-jerk BTC price reaction to this week’s data printouts, meanwhile, arguably looks unlikely — last week’s more significant releases failed to move markets.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

BNB Announces Native Liquid Staking Addition in BSC

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