BTC price breakout by end of August? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

August 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

Bitcoin stays frustratingly quiet after the weekly close, but BTC price forecasts are giving ever-shorter breakout deadlines.

Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a classic August picture as it starts the new week — volatility is nowhere to be seen.

In a continuation of some of the quietest BTC price action ever seen, the largest cryptocurrency remains locked in a narrow trading range below $30,000.

Whether it be long or short timeframes, Bitcoin is giving market observers cause for increasing frustration. Despite a tug-of-war between bulls and bears on exchanges, neither party seems able to set a new BTC price trend in motion.

Will the status quo remain this week?

With few macroeconomic triggers in store, catalysts for change will need to come from elsewhere. Whales are accumulating, data suggests, fueling an argument that Bitcoin is preparing its next major breakout phase in classic style.

A similar conclusion comes from some of the narrowest volatility recorded for Bitcoin courtesy of the Bollinger Bands metric, with current conditions rivalling September 2016 and January 2023.

By definition, it may simply be a matter of time before history repeats itself.

Bitcoin copycat move begins new rangebound week

The weekly close saw a modicum of volatility return to Bitcoin spot price performance, but just like last week, this was short lived.

Following the new weekly candle open, BTC/USD dipped to test $29,000 before returning to its previous position — one that still holds at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

*BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, noted the similarities while repeating his view that $29,700 is the level for bulls to reclaim.

Over the weekend, Van de Poppe described the lack of volatility overall as “extremely astonishing.”

“The classic dump on Sunday evening took place on Bitcoin,” he told X subscribers alongside a chart showing relevant areas of interest.

“Holding onto support, all good. Continue the range. Party starts above $29,700.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X*

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades held a similar opinion on short-term movements, noting that even weekend conditions were trending toward unusually calm extremes.

“Dancing around the CME Close price as expected. It's been a long time since we've seen anything different,” he summarized.

“Volatility this time around was extremely low. Even for a weekend.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X*

An accompanying chart put the CME Bitcoin futures closing price for the week prior at $29,465 as the focal point for the start of the week.

Weekly close clinches key BTC pric level

The weekly close itself nonetheless did manage to offer a glimmer of hope for those analyzing longer-term trends.

Bitcoin, by a hair, managed to close the weekly candle above $29,250 — a key level highlighted in recent weeks by popular trader and analyst, Rekt Capital.

In an X post just before the event, Rekt Capital referenced previous BTC price behavior after a close at $29,250 or higher.

“BTC upside wicked into the ~$30200 region, much like last week and in April 2023,” he noted.

“But if $BTC is able to Weekly Close above ~$29250, then that upside wick won't be as bearish.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X*

Providing a potential headwind was relative strength index (RSI) data, which on 1-week timeframes continued to print a bearish divergence with price.

“Weekly Bearish Divergence for BTC will continue to remain intact unless the RSI is able to break its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about the phenomenon.

*BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Rekt Capital/X*

Historical data gives little clue as to how BTC/USD might behave before the monthly close.

As Cointelegraph reported, August is a mixed bag when it comes to BTC price performance, and so far, Bitcoin has barely moved compared to the end of July.

Data from monitoring resource Coinglass shows that current gains of 0.6% mark Bitcoin’s quietest August month on record.

*BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass*

Low volatility spurs BTC price breakout predictions

It is hard to avoid the topic of volatility — or lack of it — when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin.

Despite heavy press coverage, even outside the crypto realm, the near total absence of snap price moves has been the defining characteristic of BTC price action for much of Q2.

The latest data lays bare just how static the landscape has become — and what should come afterward.

The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently measures 9.57 on weekly timeframes, rapidly retracing to all-time lows from the start of this year.

What happened when Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in January is no secret, with its Q1 upside totalling 70%.

*Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

“The volatility on Bitcoin is getting lower and lower,” Van de Poppe thus stated.

“A matter of 1-2 weeks before we'll be having a big move on the markets.”

Similar findings come from the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, now also repeating behavior from the start of 2023.

Bollinger bands narrowing preclude a price breakout, and while unknown whether this would be up or down, the extent of price compression has market participants preparing for dramatic change.

“The spread between the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin is just 2.9% and is as tight as it has ever been,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, wrote in part of an X post on Aug. 14.

Checkmate revealed that Bitcoin had printed tighter Bollinger bands just twice in its history — in September 2016 and January 2023.

“Wild stuff,” he concluded.

*Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range annotated chart. Source: Checkmate/X*

Whale "reaccumulation" narrative strengthens

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on interesting shifts among Bitcoin whales underneath stale BTC price action.

This is continuing, analysis shows, and what looks like accumulation is becoming an ever-larger talking point for those seeking signs of the bull market returning.

“In the past two weeks, about 10 Bitcoin whales, each holding at least 1,000 $BTC (worth a minimum of $29.4 million), have joined the network!” popular trader Ali noted at the weekend.

Glassnode data puts the total number of addresses with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC at 2,015 as of Aug. 13 — up from 2,005 on Aug. 1.

*Bitcoin Number of Addresses with Balance over 1,000 BTC chart. Source: Glassnode*

Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, flagged the emergence of new whales on major exchange Bitfinex as proof that “something is brewing under the surface.”

And #Bitmex whales have joined the party. During the last night, I've got 3 notifications from massive new long positions

Something is brewing under the surface https://t.co/EFLYZCMFyV https://t.co/TDY0uEis6c pic.twitter.com/4Y29U8tTtj
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 13, 2023

“Strong start off the cycle bottom, now in re-accumulation mode,” on-chain and cycle analyst Root continued, pointing to realized price figures.

Bitcoin’s realized price refers to the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved.

*Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: Root/X*

Fed FOMC minutes lead cool macro week

Crypto markets are in for a relatively quiet macroeconomic data period, in line with the summer lull.

This week, while “big” for U.S. consumer data, has Federal Reserve minutes as its main highlight.

Key Events This Week:

1. July Retail Sales data - Tuesday

2. Building Permits data - Wednesday

3. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday

4. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

5. Philly Fed PMI data - Thursday

6. Retail earnings including $WMT $TGT $HD

Big week for consumer data.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 13, 2023

Those minutes will show the attitudes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members toward interest rate policy as they were when rates were hiked last month.

Risk asset traders continue to look toward the September FOMC meeting for a potential rate hike pause — something which should benefit crypto as well.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that happening stand at almost 90%, with the meeting still over a month away.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Any knee-jerk BTC price reaction to this week’s data printouts, meanwhile, arguably looks unlikely — last week’s more significant releases failed to move markets.

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Bitcoin hugs $29.5K into CPI as odds split over new US inflation spike

August 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin looks set to benefit little from the latest CPI figures, analysts warn, with fresh BTC price losses firmly on the cards.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $29,500 on Aug. 10 as markets braced for a fresh United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print.

Trader warns of Bitcoin "downside" despite CPI volatility

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action stabilizing in the run-up to the CPI release — itself a classic volatility catalyst.

CPI is one of the key elements for the Federal Reserve when deciding interest rate policy. Last month’s June readout was the lowest in two years, with expectations broadly pointing to another drop for July.

“3.3% are the expectations, but are we going to get it and what will the markets do?” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, queried in part of an X post on the topic.

Van de Poppe noted that there appeared to be a chance that CPI could rise, something which would pressure risk assets, including crypto, which favor looser Fed policy.

JPMorgan Chase was among those warning of a re-acceleration in CPI values.

“The major uncertainties concern two issues that were previously seen as unlikely to undermine the July numbers: The direct and indirect price pass-throughs of the recent increase in energy and food prices; and The relative stubbornness of service inflation,” economist Mohamed El-Erian explained in part of the day’s analysis.

“With CPI today, i think Bitcoins and Crypto are going to give us some fun & games, but ultimately, I'm slightly biased to more downside,” popular trader Mark Cullen told X followers.

“With BTC reentering the range & failing to hold 29.5k yesterday, if it can't immediately get back above & hold, i will compound my short.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X*

Nonetheless, market expectations regarding rate hikes themselves favored a pause at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of that pause were above 85% at the time of writing.

Major BTC buyer support below $29,000

Monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile presented liquidity conditions on the Binance BTC/USD order book.

These revealed the potential for snap downside thanks to a lack of bid support immediately below current spot price.

“Not speculating on what the CPI and Jobs Reports are going to look like in the morning. At 8:30am ET, we'll know how those numbers will impact the soft landing narrative and the Sept FED rate hike decision. What matters between now and then is where liquidity is stacked and where it's thin,” part of accompanying commentary read.

“Price can move quickly through the dark, illiquid zones because there is little or no friction. To the contrary, the more liquidity there is around buy/sell walls, the more insulated those levels are.”

*BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X*

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin price erases FOMC gains as US dollar surges on Q2 GDP print

July 27, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin casts off a U.S. GDP "nothingburger" but DXY charges to two-week highs in what is traditionally a BTC price headwind.

Bitcoin (BTC) ate away at the prior day’s gains on July 27 as United States macroeconomic data produced a muted reaction.

Analyst warns of BTC price dip

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price strength waning after a brief push to $29,680 into the daily close.

The largest cryptocurrency had offered a modest uptick after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to their highest since 2001 — a move already priced in by markets.

The day’s U.S. GDP advanced print for Q2 came in better than forecast at 2.4% annualized, pointing to inflationary pressures continuing to ebb in what could prove a catalyst for risk asset performance.

Bitcoin did not noticeably react, however, with stocks likewise fairly flat after the Wall Street open.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, thus hoped that the July 28 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index release would provide a more tangible growth incentive.

“GDP comes out way more positive than expected. That's great. Soft landing case starts to pick up pace. If GDP was worse than expected, you'd see markets drop,” he argued in a Twitter update.

“Bitcoin steady, stocks steady. Now PCE better than expected and we go up.”

A subsequent post nonetheless cautioned that BTC/USD could see a dip beforehand, while $29,700 now formed a line in the sand.

Open Interest to new highs, price grinding upwards, seems likely to sweep down before up for #Bitcoin.

If not? Break $29,700 in one-go and we'll have a party. pic.twitter.com/CxznrbMCVh
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 27, 2023

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators meanwhile suggested ahead of time that GDP would be a “nothingburger” for crypto.

An accompanying chart of the BTC/USD order book on largest global exchange Binance showed support still thin above $28,500, potentially easing a market drop should one begin.

“The strong economy/soft landing narrative is gaining some traction, but the FED would still like to see softening of the labor market to support the thesis relative to what the ‘historical record’ shows about the correlation between the labor market and inflation,” it added in part of additional analysis.

*BTC/USD order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/Twitter*

U.S. dollar strength hits 2-week highs

GDP likewise had little impact on market expectations for where Fed policy would go at the next interest rate decision point in September.

On the day, odds of rates pausing at their current 5.25-5.5% stood at 76%, with a 24% likelihood of another 0.25% hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Commenting on the outlook for crypto vis-a-vis U.S. macro movements, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro called the rate hike event “very vanilla.”

“The markets reacting as if we are just one more hike closer to a pause, BTC and US equities higher,” he concluded the day prior.

One conspicuous reaction traditionally a headwind for crypto was U.S. dollar strength, which spiked on July 27.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) hit 101.84, its highest since July 11 and furthering a bounce from its lowest levels in over a year.

*U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

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Bitcoin price data suggests bulls will succeed in holding $30K as support this time

June 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price data suggests bulls will succeed in holding K as support this time

Coin Telegraph

Two key Bitcoin price metrics suggest that bulls will be able to hold the $30,000 level as support.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading above $31,000 after its 24.3% rally between June 15 and June 23, which caught many off guard. For bears, that meant facing $165 million in short futures contract liquidations, but the unexpected rally also brought some degree of discomfort for investors using Bitcoin derivatives.

Inflation remains the biggest question mark for traditional markets, a point highlighted by the recent 50-basis-point interest rate increase by the Bank of England, followed by similar moves in Norway and Switzerland, leading to the highest cost of capital in over a decade for the region.

In response to questions from lawmakers on the United States House Financial Services Committee on June 21, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that “the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go” and reiterated that “nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.”

According to JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, “the economy’s recent resilience may delay the onset of a recession,” so the impacts of the monetary tightening movement by the central bank are yet to be felt, “and ultimately a recession will likely be necessary to return inflation to target.”

Investors now question whether Bitcoin has the strength to trade above the $30,000 resistance amid the bearish pressure emerging from a potential economic recession and further central bank activity aimed at curbing the demand for capital.

Consequently, traders should closely monitor Bitcoin futures contract premiums and the costs of hedging using BTC options.

Bitcoin derivatives show modest improvement

Bitcoin quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.

As a result, BTC futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The demand for leveraged BTC longs slightly increased as the futures contract premium jumped to 4.3% on June 22 from 3.2% one week prior, although it remains below the neutral 5% threshold.

Traders should also analyze options markets to understand whether the recent correction has caused investors to become more optimistic. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign of when arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

In short, if traders anticipate a Bitcoin price drop, the skew metric will rise above 7%, and phases of excitement tend to have a negative 7% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas*

The 25% delta skew metric did a complete turnaround as it exited the “fear” mode on June 16 as Bitcoin’s price reclaimed the $26,000 support. The indicator continued to improve until June 22, culminating with the moderate “greed” sentiment at a negative 8% skew.

The absence of excessive optimism is a good sign

Typically, a 4.3% futures basis and a negative 8% delta skew would be considered neutral market indicators, but that is not the case given the 21.5% Bitcoin price rally between June 15 and June 22. A certain amount of skepticism is healthy for buyers using derivatives contracts and opens room for further leverage use if needed.

The heated legal battle between Binance and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission presents a risk for BTC futures contracts. The decisions from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia could severely impact the cryptocurrency market, as Binance holds the biggest market share in the spot and derivatives markets.

Uncertainty around the crypto regulatory environment and the growing risks of an economic recession are possible explanations for Bitcoin derivatives traders’ lack of excitement.

Apart from those external risks, there is no apparent driver to justify a sharp BTC price correction, giving bulls just the right amount of optimism to keep the positive momentum.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Top Crypto Strategist Goes Off on Jerome Powell FOMC Speech, Predicts ‘Period of Strength’ for Bitcoin

May 4, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rate by 25bps, Insists ‘US Banking System Is Sound and Resilient’

May 3, 2023 Bitcoin.com

Bitcoin limps into FOMC as flagging volume adds to BTC price hurdles

May 3, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price looks unlikely to break out as markets brace for Fed rate hike volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit daily lows at the May 3 Wall Street open as markets counted down the hours to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

Fed set to hike into banking crisis

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $28,152 on Bitstamp, down 2.2% from the day’s highs.

The pair continued volatility into the May 3 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the event which accompanies interest rate adjustments.

As Cointelegraph reported, market sentiment has priced in a 90%+ chance of the Fed hiking 0.25% to copy its March moves, with little expectations of a surprise instead.

The odds of the hike materializing stood at 83% at the time of writing, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, around 15% lower than the previous day.

As in March, however, the Fed would be hiking into a banking crisis exacerbated by already high interest rates. Multiple United States regional bank stocks fell considerably the day prior, raising concerns that the crisis has gone nowhere.

“The regional bank sector, KRE, just posted its 3rd biggest daily drop of this crisis, falling nearly 7%. Yet, we still have not received any comment from the FDIC or Fed,” financial commentary resource, The Kobeissi Letter, told Twitter followers on the day.

“In fact, the Fed is expected to RAISE interest rates again today. Meanwhile, no major headlines are reporting on the crisis anymore. The lack of attention to what’s happening to our system is incredibly concerning.”

Kobeissi referred to the U.S. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, down over 30% year-to-date.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives giant BitMEX, held a similarly bleak view, predicting the downfall of several regional banks this week in a copycat move following the shutdown of First Republic Bank at the weekend.

A few of these banks won't be around next Monday. Unless the Fed cuts rates and signals more cuts, or #banktermfundingprogram eligible collateral is expanded to any loan on a US federally chartered bank's balance sheet, it's goblin town!

I got some puts last night. Yachtzee! pic.twitter.com/Ahe0fLqQ7C
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) May 2, 2023

“PACW indicating down 10%. Oh Baby! Will they make it to Friday or does the Fed have a surprise do us?” he queried in a subsequent tweet.

“Isn’t it great there is such a resilient banking system in Pax Americana?”

Little hope of a Bitcoin price breakout

Despite the banking angst, Bitcoin remained aloof, failing to capitalize on sentiment and remaining firmly within an established trading range.

“No doubt that BTC has lost some momentum. It's currently ranging and whatever happens from here on out will determine the market structure and likely the next bigger move,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized.

“Above $30K would continue the bullish trend. Below $27K would make for a bearish market structure.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/ Twitter*

Fellow trader Pentoshi revealed a downside target around $25,000 for his next potential trade, while Elizy offered two zones closer to spot price at which he would “pull the trigger.”

$BTC the only areas of interest to me where I would pull the trigger

me no limit order active today the spikes can be screwing you...so i will evaluate closely those indicated areas pic.twitter.com/x6f49jw7cs
— EliZ¥ (@eliz883) May 3, 2023

Trader Crypto-ROD meanwhile shared a more optimistic short-term BTC/USD roadmap.

$BTC Update.

Here possible bullish setup.

I'm still expecting consolidation move after all the huge volatility we get -> maybe alts time ?

As long as we hold the range POC all is okay imo.

Possible bullish retest today here before send it a bit higher (in the range) ✍️ https://t.co/RrL8PoBm6H pic.twitter.com/HsF8m2B93o
— Crypto-ROD (@RodMaartin) May 3, 2023

Firm bullishness, however, was hard to find among commentators, with trader Justin Bennett noting decreasing volume as a telltale warning sign of flagging upside potential.

“I'd love to know how so many believe Bitcoin will reach $100k or even $50k this year when volume looks like this,” he argued on May 2.

“A rally on decreasing volume = exhaustion.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Justin Bennett/ Twitter*

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