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Margin trading vs. Futures: What are the differences?

Margin trading and futures are used in cryptocurrency to multiply gains. Here’s what you need to know about these tools, how they work, and their differences.

Are margin and futures trading risky tools?

While investors find margin trading and futures very attractive because of their potential returns, they should be cautious and consider all the risks before adopting them.

Risks associated with margin trading

Crypto margin trading is riskier than standard trading because of the leverage component, which may lose the investor more money than they held initially. Especially considering that cryptocurrencies are very volatile and unpredictable assets, the investor may have to provide extra funds to the collateral to avoid being forced to sell. 

Investors start paying interest on the loan they took up to margin trade from day one, and the debt increases as the interest accrues. For this reason, margin trading is suited for short-term investments, as with interest to pay over the long period, the odds of making a profit are slimmer.

Risks associated with futures trading

The main risk associated with futures trading is the elevated leverage that investors can request with their already speculative positions. Typically, futures are allowed far greater leverage than their underlying assets, meaning they also face an increased risk of a margin call that could stretch the losses.

Coupled with the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market, the price of a futures contract may not favor the investor at the expiry date. Above all, beginners with little knowledge of markets and strategies should acquire some trading skills before venturing into either margin or futures trading, as they are speculative and risky investment tools.

Are margin trading and futures similar investments?

Margin trading occurs in the spot market — a marketplace for immediate delivery — while futures relates to trades occurring in the derivatives market on assets to be delivered in the future.

Margin trading and futures trading are two strategies that require the investor to have good trading skills as they are considered advanced trading techniques. They are two different types of investment tools with a similar goal, but they just go about different ways to achieve it.

Margin trading vs. futures: Similarities

Opportunity

Margin trading and futures are similar investment tools. They aim to allow investors to buy more of a crypto asset using only their equity. They are both speculative instruments and have different approaches to achieving the same goal.

Purpose

They can both trigger amplified returns but can cause extreme losses too. Especially in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, it’s somehow easy to experience significant quick gains. Still, dramatic losses can occur too, so it is recommended that only experienced traders use these tools.

Margin trading vs. futures: Differences

Different markets 

The main difference between margin trading and futures is in the market they are traded. Margins are traded on the spot market, while futures are contracts exchanged in the derivatives market and imply the future delivery of the asset.

Leverage 

Margin trading in crypto usually has a leverage that ranges between 5 and 20%, while it’s common to exceed 100% in futures.

Collateral allocation 

Crypto margin accounts allow traders to leverage the spot market through a sort of loan on which interest must be paid, while futures only require a good faith deposit as collateral.

Duration

Being perpetual, the spot market requires traders to determine how long they want to keep a coin leveraged. On the other hand, futures are contracts with an expiry date that determine how long you can hold a position. 

Types of investors

They target two types of traders for executing margin trading and futures. Margin trading is more for short-term investors, while futures refers more to long-term investors.

How does a futures trade work?

Futures trading in the cryptocurrency market allows investors to bet on the price of Bitcoin. For example, at a specific date in the future, all without actually owning any of it.

In crypto futures trading, a contract is ratified between a seller who wants to lock in a price hoping for a profit at a specific date in the future and a buyer who will purchase the agreement as a hedge against paying higher prices if the asset grows in value. 

The process happens regardless of the actual price of the asset at that future date and is regulated by futures exchanges that must guarantee the fulfillment of the contract at its expiration date. With crypto trading, futures are often quarterly or perpetual contracts.

Futures contracts must include the following:

  • An expiration date: when the futures contract is settled at the predetermined conditions;
  • The contract value: the amount of cryptocurrency which forms the underlying asset covered in the contract;
  • Leverage: Some exchanges allow traders to borrow funds to increase their position size and boost potential gains;
  • Settlement type: it can usually be in cryptocurrency, cash in hand or through a bank transfer.

What is futures trading?

Futures are a type of derivative contract that ties a buyer and a seller of a cryptocurrency to execute the deal at the established price at a specific date in the future.

Some crypto enthusiasts prefer to invest through futures trading instead of dealing with actually buying or selling it through private keys, passwords and generally avoid going through the hassle that most platforms require to trade crypto. At the same time, they have acquired exposure to the asset. 

Crypto futures trading terms are indicated in a futures contract, which ties a buyer to receive a crypto asset at their predicted price on a specific date and the seller to deliver that asset at those same conditions when the futures contract expires, regardless of the market price at the expiration date.

Futures contracts are traded on futures exchanges like the CME Group, the largest and most recognized globally, and are identified by their expiration month. According to the Futures Industry Association (FIA), 29 billion futures contracts were traded in 2021. Futures trading cryptocurrency is a growing portion of the market, with more people interested in this type of investment. 

CME reported an increase of 13% in Bitcoin (BTC) added daily value (ADV) of contracts and Micro Bitcoin futures traded in 2021. The benefits of futures trading mainly allow investors to hedge a crypto asset’s price movement to help avoid losses from negative price changes. 

In hedging, investors take a position opposite to the one they hold with the underlying asset so that if they lose money on the latter, they will mitigate the loss through the futures contracts balancing their risk exposures and limiting themselves from any fluctuations in price. 

You can lose money in futures trading. However, because of the hedging element, losses are mitigated and can be less dramatic than with margin trading. Like margin accounts, trading crypto with futures requires opening a brokerage account which must be approved by the exchange or the broker.

How does margin trading work?

Margin trading aims to amplify gains and allows experienced investors to potentially get them quickly. They may bring dramatic losses, too, if the trader doesn’t know how they work.

When trading on margin, crypto investors borrow money from a brokerage firm to trade. They first deposit cash into a margin account that will be used as collateral for the loan, a kind of security deposit. 

Then they start paying interest on the borrowed money, which can be paid at the end of the loan or with monthly or weekly installments, based on current market conditions. When the asset is sold, proceeds are used to repay the margin loan first. 

The loan is necessary to raise investors’ purchasing power and buy larger amounts of crypto assets, and the assets purchased automatically become the collateral for the margin loan.

The amount an investor is allowed to borrow depends on the price of the asset purchased and the collateral’s value. Still, typically a broker will offer an investor to borrow up to 50% of the purchase price of a cryptocurrency against the amount of collateral in the account. 

So, for instance, if an investor wants to buy $1,000 worth of cryptocurrency and put half of that on margin, they’ll need at least $500 worth of collateral to repay the initial loan. 

Margin trading leverage 

A margin account is typically used for leveraged trading, with the leverage representing the ratio of borrowed funds to the margin. A margin trading example could be to open a $10,000 trade at a leverage of 10:1. In that case, a trader must commit $1,000 of their capital to execute the trade.

These leverage ratios vary depending on the trading platform and the market traded. The stock market, for example, has a typical ratio of 2:1. In contrast, with futures contracts, the ratio rises to 15:1. In crypto margin trading, where rules are not always established like in traditional markets, the leverage ratio could vary from 2:1 to as much as 125:1. The crypto community usually simplifies referring to the ratio as 2x, 5x, 125x, and so forth, which indicates the multiplied amount their investment could accrue to.

Margin trading includes references such as going long or short on trades investors take. When people go long, they refer to an extended position they’ve taken, predicting that the price will go up in value. A short position is based on the assumption that the opposite will happen, and investors have a negative position on the crypto, believing it will drop in price. In that case, the investor will profit if the asset falls.

The benefit of margin trading is to amplify gains, but investors can also lose money. The trader’s assets are the collateral for the loan, and in case their value drops below a fixed threshold, the broker reserves the right to force a sale unless the investor injects more funds as collateral to achieve the minimum requirements for margin trading.

What is margin trading?

Margin trading is a strategy that allows investors to buy more assets without using their own funds and borrowing funds from a broker instead. 

Margin trading in cryptocurrency markets is no different from traditional margin trading. Margin funding is considered a loan to trade a digital asset, where the margin is the money borrowed from a broker and the difference between the total value of the investment and the loan amount. 

The assets that form the balance of a margin trading account are used as collateral for the loan to cover the credit risk and potential losses traders may have, especially when trading on leverage. The brokerage firm or a crypto exchange may liquidate a trader’s assets if the value of the investment drops considerably.

In order to trade crypto with margin, an investor needs to be authorized by the service provider to open a margin account where to deposit crypto, cash, or securities as collateral for the loan. In margin trading cryptocurrency, the leverage will amplify both gains and losses, and a margin call may occur with heavy losses, such as a decrease in the securities’ equity value. 

A margin call allows the exchange or a broker to liquidate the investor’s collateral without consent or to request more funds into their margin account to avoid a forced liquidation to satisfy the broker.

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Don’t’ believe the hype — Bitcoin price rally to $17K reflects improving sentiment

Negative newsflow continues to make headlines but BTC’s recent move above $17,000 suggests investors are finding reasons to be bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.1% between Nov. 28 and Nov. 30 after briefly testing the $17,000 support. Favorable regulatory winds might have helped fuel the rally after the Binance exchange announced the acquisition of a regulated crypto exchange in Japan on Nov. 30.

Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView

Binance shut its operations in Japan in 2018 after being warned by the Japan Financial Services Agency for operating without a license. The acquisition of Sakura Exchange BitCoin would mark the re-entry of Binance in the Japanese market.

Furthermore, Gemini exchange announced new regulatory approvals in Italy and Greece on Nov. 30. The exchange was granted registration as a virtual currency operator with Italy's payments services regulator. Gemini was approved as an exchange and custodial wallet provider in Greece.

However, not everything has been positive on the regulatory front. In separate letters from Nov. 28, Ron Wyden, chair of the United States Senate Finance Committee, requested information from six cryptocurrency exchanges. The lawmaker targeted the necessity of "consumer protections along the lines of the assurances that have long existed for customers of banks, credit unions and securities brokers."

Wyden requested the six firms provide answers by Dec. 12 on safeguards of consumer assets and market manipulation. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also scheduled a hearing to explore the collapse of FTX on Dec. 1.

During these events, Bitcoin has been trying to break above $17,000 for the past eighteen days, so some selling pressure clearly remains above that level.

The most likely culprit is the risk of capitulation from Bitcoin miners after they’ve seen their profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging Bitcoin mining difficulty. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin miners face a significant squeeze after expecting to sell accumulated BTC at a profit.

Let's look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors remain risk-averse to Bitcoin.

Futures markets are no longer in backwardation

Fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Considering the data above, derivatives traders have improved their expectations and the Bitcoin futures premium is no longer negative — meaning the demand for bullish and bearish leverage is equally balanced.

Still, the present 0% premium is far from the 4% threshold for bullishness, indicating professional traders' reluctance to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

Another notable development is the long-to-short ratio improving over the past two days. To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the quarterly contracts, traders should analyze the top traders' long-to-short ratio.

The metric also gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot and perpetual contracts, which better informs how professional traders are positioned.

Exchanges' top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Even though Bitcoin failed to break $17,000 on Nov. 30, professional traders slightly increased their leverage long positions according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, the Binance traders' ratio improved from 1.07 on Nov. 28 and presently stands at 1.10.

Similarly, OKX displayed a modest increase in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 0.98 to the current 1.03 in two days. The metric slightly declined to 1.02 at the Huobi exchange and this shows that traders did not become bearish after the latest resistance rejection.

The absence of negative price moves is a bullish indicator

Traders should not conclude that the absence of futures premium reflects worsening market conditions because the broader data from the long-to-short ratio has shown whales and market makers adding leverage longs.

The Bitcoin price movement has been surprisingly positive considering the recent negative newsflow and fear relating to the potential of a regulatory crackdown and miners' ability to withstand a more extended crypto winter.

It will likely take longer for investors to regain confidence and feel that the current contagion risks are over. As a result, bears could continue to exert pressure and sustain Bitcoin below $17,000 in the short-term.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum derivatives look bearish, but traders believe the ETH bottom is in

Expectations of stringent regulation and further contagion from FTX continue to weigh on ETH price, but derivatives are showing a modest improvement in sentiment.

Ether (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors' sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 28.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with Kraken exchange for "apparent violations of sanctions against Iran." In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 as part of a deal "to settle its potential civil liability."

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi's bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are lower than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues, but some are also questioning the risk of invalidation. One example comes from crypto Twitter trader @CryptoCapo_:

Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors' sentiment.

Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.

Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze Ether's options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest for Bitcoin (BTC). The movement has led to a 7-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics —will eventually come out ahead.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin’s bottom might be below $15.5K, but data shows some traders turning bullish

Bitcoin whales and market makers continue to add to their leverage long positions, even though it’s unclear whether $15,500 was the final bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in control since Nov. 11, subduing BTC price below $17,000 on every 12-hour candle. On Nov. 28, a drop to $16,000 shattered bulls' hope that the 7% gains between Nov. 21 and Nov. 24 were enough to mark a cycle low at $15,500.

The most likely culprit was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance cold wallet on Nov. 28. The huge Bitcoin transaction immediately triggered fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently announced it was part of an auditing process.

Regulatory pressure has also been limiting BTC’s upside after reports on Nov. 25 showed that cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms were under investigation by securities regulators in the United States. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission, confirmed that its state and several other states are investigating Genesis' alleged ties to securities laws violation.

On Nov. 16, Genesis announced it had temporarily suspended withdrawals, citing "unprecedented market turmoil." Genesis also hired restructuring advisers to explore all possible options, including but not limited to a potential bankruptcy, as reported by Cointelegraph on Nov. 23.

Let's look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Margin markets show leverage longs at a 3-month high

Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

For instance, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn't always matched.

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The above chart shows that OKX traders' margin lending ratio increased from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs during the 6% dip toward $15,500. Presently at 34, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin — the highest in three months — indicating traders have kept their bullish positions.

Leverage buyers ignored the recent dip to $15,500

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. In addition, it gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges' top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Even though Bitcoin failed to break above the $16,700 resistance, professional traders have kept their leverage long positions, according to the long-to-short indicator.

For instance, the ratio for Binance traders improved somewhat from 1.00 on Nov. 21, but ended the period at 1.05. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a more substantial increase in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.01 to 1.08 in the seven days until Nov. 28.

At crypto exchange OKX, the metric slightly decreased from 0.99 on Nov. 21 to 0.96 on Nov. 28. Consequently, on average, traders are confident enough to keep adding leverage to bullish positions.

Related: US House committee sets Dec. 13 date for FTX hearing

The $16,200 support showed strength, suggesting that traders are turning bullish

These two derivatives metrics — margin and top trader's long-to-short — suggest that size leverage sellers did not back the Bitcoin price correction to $16,000 on Nov. 28.

A bearish sentiment would have caused the margin lending ratio to go below 15, pushing the long-to-short ratio much lower. It is important to note that even pro traders can misinterpret the market, but the present reading from the derivatives market favors a strong $16,000 support.

Still, even if the price revisits $15,500, bulls should not be concerned as the derivatives indicators withheld neutral-to-bullish on Nov. 21 and further improved during the week.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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MEXC Global Vice President Andrew Weiner Explains the Appeal of Futures Trading

MEXC Global Vice President Andrew Weiner Explains the Appeal of Futures TradingA 6-year veteran of the crypto industry, Andrew Weiner serves as the Vice President of MEXC Global. As the former executive of RegTech and digital identity pioneer iComplyKYC, he worked with notable brands that include Thomson Reuters, ComplyAdvantage, IBM, Mastercard, Deloitte, and KPMG to deliver innovative solutions to Virtual Asset Service Providers in over 170+ […]

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Ethereum bears have the upper hand according to derivatives data, but for how long?

ETH bears continue to suppress Ethereum price, but institutional traders’ buying activity and exchanges’ aiming to provide more transparency could improve investor sentiment.

Ether (ETH) price experienced an 11.9% decline from Nov. 20 to Nov. 22, bottoming at $1,074 — the lowest level seen since July. Currently, investors have reason to be concerned after crypto lending company Genesis reportedly faced difficulties raising money, triggering rumors of insolvency on Nov. 21. 

However, a spokesperson for Genesis told Cointelegraph that there were no plans for imminent bankruptcy because the company continues to hold discussions with its creditors.

Unease about the centralization of decentralized finance (DeFi) surfaced after Uniswap Labs changed the privacy policy on Nov. 17, revealing that it collects publicly-available blockchain data, users' browser information, operating systems data and interactions with its service providers.

Adding to the fracas, the hacker behind the FTX exchange theft of $447 million has been spotted moving their Ether funds. On Nov. 20, the attacker transferred 50,000 ETH to a separate wallet and converted it to Bitcoin using two renBTC bridges.

Traders fear that the hacker might be suppressing Ether's price to profit using leveraged short bets. The rumor was raised by @kundunsan on Nov. 15, even though the Twitter post did not gain exposure.

Let's look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors' sentiment.

Pro traders have been in panic mode since Nov. 10

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders' preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.

Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The three-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. The chart above shows that derivatives traders have been bearish since Nov. 10 since the Ether futures premium was negative.

Currently there is backwardation in the contracts and this situation is atypical and usually deemed bearish. The metric did not improve after ETH rallied 5% on Nov. 22, reflecting professional traders' unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions.

Traders should also analyze Ether's options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.

Options traders fear additional crashes

The 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.

Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

The delta skew has been above the 10% threshold since Nov. 9, signaling that options traders were less inclined to offer downside protection. The situation worsened over the following days as the delta skew indicator surged above 20%.

The 60-day delta skew currently stands at 23%, so whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, derivatives data shows low confidence right as Ether struggles to hold the $1,100 support.

According to the data, Ether bulls should not throw in the towel just yet because these metrics tend to be backward-looking. The panic that followed FTX's bankruptcy and the subsequent liquidity issues at Genesis might dissipate quickly if exchanges public proof of reserves and institutional investors addingBitcoin exposure during the dip are interpreted as positives by market participants.

With that said, at the moment Ether bears still have the upper hand according to ETH derivatives metrics.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin traders increase leverage longs even as crypto critics say BTC is a “pure Ponzi”

In the past 48-hours Bitcoin traders added to their leveraged long positions even as crypto critics and politicians ramp up their criticism of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has tested the $16,000 resistance multiple times since the 25% crash that occurred between Nov. 7 and Nov. 9, and some critics will justify their bearish bias by incorrectly assuming that the failure of FTX exchange should trigger a much broader correction.

For example, Daniel Knowles, a correspondent at The Economist, says the 26th largest tradable asset in the world with a $322 billion market capitalization is "astonishingly useless and wasteful." Knowles also said that, "there is still no logical case for specifically Bitcoin. It's pure ponzi."

If you think it through, for outsiders, Bitcoin's price is the single most important indicator of success, regardless of its valuation surpassing secular companies such as Nestle (NESN.SW), Bank of America (BAC) and Coca-Cola (KO).

Most people's need for centralized authority of their money is so entrenched that cryptocurrency exchanges’ success and failure rate becomes the gatekeeper and success benchmark, when in fact, quite the opposite is true. Bitcoin was created as a peer-to-peer monetary transmission network, so exchanges are not synonyms for adoption.

It is worth highlighting that Bitcoin has been trying to break above $17,000 for the past seven days, so there is certainly a lack of appetite from buyers above that level. The most likely reason is that investors fear contagion risks, similar to what was seen with Genesis Block, the last FTX-related victim to halt service due to liquidity concerns. According to recent reports, the company announced plans to cease trading and shutter operations.

Bitcoin price is stuck in a downtrend, and it will be hard to shake it, but it’s a fallacy to assume that centralized cryptocurrency exchange failure is the primary reason for Bitcoin’s downtrend, or a reflection of its actual value.

Let's look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors remain risk-averse to Bitcoin.

Futures markets are in backwardation and this is bearish

Fixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Considering the data above, it is evident that derivatives traders have flipped bearish on Nov. 9, as the Bitcoin futures premium entered backwardation, meaning the demand for shorts — bearish bets — is extremely high. This data reflects professional traders’ unwillingness to add leveraged long (bull) positions despite the inverted cost.

The longs-to-shorts ratio shows a more balanced situation

To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the quarterly contracts, traders should analyze the top traders' long-to-short ratio. It gathers data from exchange clients' positions on the spot, perpetual and fixed-calendar futures contracts, thus better informing on how professional traders are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges' top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

Even though Bitcoin failed to break the $17,000 resistance on Nov. 18, professional traders slightly increased their leverage long positions according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, the Huobi traders' ratio improved from 0.93 on Nov. 16 and presently stands at 0.99.

Related: Crypto Biz, FTX fallout leaves blood in its wake

Similarly, OKX displayed a modest increase in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 1.00 to the current 1.04 in two days. Lastly, the metric stood flat near 1.00 at the Binance exchange. Thus, such data show traders did not become bearish after the latest resistance rejection.

Consequently, one should not conclude that the futures backwardation considering the broader analysis of the long-to-short ratio, show no evidence of excessive bearish demand from whales and market makers.

It will likely take some time until investors exclude the potential regulatory and contagion risks caused by FTX and Alameda Research's downfall. Until then, a sharp recovery for Bitcoin seems unlikely for the short term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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CME Bitcoin futures trade at a discount, but is that a good or a bad thing?

CME Bitcoin futures briefly traded at a 5% discount, alarming analysts, but what does it mean for BTC price?

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin (BTC) futures have been trading below Bitcoin’s spot price on regular exchanges since Nov. 9, a situation that is technically referred to as backwardation. While it does point to a bearish market structure, there are multiple factors that can cause momentary distortions.

Typically, these CME fixed-month contracts trade at a slight premium, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement for longer. As a result, futures should trade at a 0.5% to 2% premium in healthy markets, a situation known as contango.

However, a prominent futures contract seller will cause a momentary distortion in the futures premium. Unlike perpetual contracts, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price may vastly differ from spot exchanges.

Aggressive sellers caused a 5% discount on BTC futures

Whenever there's aggressive activity from shorts (sellers), the two-month futures contract will trade at a 2% or higher discount.

CME Bitcoin 1-month futures premium vs. BTC index. Source: TradingView

Notice how 1-month CME futures had been trading near the fair value, either presenting a 0.5% discount or 0.5% premium versus spot exchanges. However, during the Nov. 9 Bitcoin price crash, aggressive futures contracts sellers caused the CME futures to trade 5% below the regular market price.

The present 1.5% discount remains atypical but it can be explained by the contagion risks caused by the FTX and Alameda Research bankruptcy. The group was supposedly one of the largest market makers in cryptocurrencies, so their downfall was bound to send shockwaves throughout all crypto-related markets.

The insolvency has severely impacted prominent over-the-counter desks, investment funds and lending services, including Genesis, BlockFi and Galois Capital. As a result, traders should expect less arbitrage activity between CME futures and the remaining spot market exchanges.

The lack of market makers exacerbated the negative impact

As market makers scramble to reduce their exposure and assess counterparty risks, the eventual excessive demand for longs and shorts at CME will naturally cause distortions in the futures premium indicator.

The backwardation in contracts is the primary indicator of a dysfunctional and bearish derivatives market. Such a movement can occur during liquidation orders or when large players decide to short the market using derivatives. This is especially true when open interest increases because new positions are being created under these unusual circumstances.

On the other hand, an excessive discount will create an arbitrage opportunity because one can buy the futures contract while simultaneously selling the same amount on spot (or margin) markets. This is a neutral market strategy, commonly known as 'reverse cash and carry.'

Institutional investors’ interest in CME futures remains steady

Curiously, the open interest on CME Bitcoin futures reached its highest level in four months on Nov. 10. This data measures the aggregate size of buyers and sellers using CME's derivatives contracts.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass

Notice that the $5.45 billion record-high happened on Oct. 26, 2021, but Bitcoin's price was near $60,000 then. Consequently, the $1.67 billion CME futures open interest on Nov. 10, 2022, remains relevant in the number of contracts.

Related: US crypto exchanges lead Bitcoin exodus: Over $1.5B in BTC withdrawn in one week

Traders often use open interest as an indicator to confirm trends or, at least, institutional investors' appetite. For instance, a rising number of outstanding futures contracts is usually interpreted as new money coming into the market, irrespective of the bias.

Although this data can't be deemed bullish on a standalone basis, it does signal that professional investors' interest in Bitcoin is not going away.

As further proof, notice that the open interest chart above shows that savvy investors did not reduce their positions using Bitcoin derivatives, regardless of what critics have said about cryptocurrencies.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency markets, traders shouldn’t assume that a 1.5% discount on CME futures denotes long-term bearishness.

There's undoubtedly a demand for shorts, but the lack of appetite from market makers is the primary factor leading to the current distortion.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum price weakens near key support, but traders are afraid to open short positions

ETH price hovers at a key support level and while it is softening, data shows pro traders are reluctant to go short.

Ether (ETH) has been stuck between $1,170 to $1,350 from Nov. 10 to Nov. 15, which represents a relatively tight 15% range. During this time, investors are continuing to digest the negative impact of the Nov. 11 Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of FTX exchange

Meanwhile, Ether’s total market volume was 57% higher than the previous week, at $4.04 billion per day. This data is even more relevant considering the collapse of Alameda Research, the arbitrage and market-making firm controlled by FTX's founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

On a monthly basis, Ether's current $1,250 level presents a modest 4.4% decline, so traders can hardly blame FTX and Alameda Research for the 74% fall from the $4,811 all-time high reached in November 2021.

While contagion risks have caused investors to drain centralized exchanges wallets, the movement led to an uptick in decentralized exchanges (DEX) activity. Uniswap, 1inch Network, and SushiSwap saw a 22% increase in the number of active addresses since Nov. 8.

Let's take a look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Margin markets show no signs of distress

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, potentially increasing their returns. For example, one can buy Ether by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing their crypto exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Ether can only be used to short it or bet on a price decrease.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily matched. When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish — the opposite, a low lending ratio, signals that the market is bearish.

OKX USDT/ETH margin lending ratio. Source: OKX

The chart above shows investors' morale topped on Nov. 13 as the ratio reached 5.7, the highest in two months. However, from that point onward, OKX traders presented less demand for bets on the price uptrend as the indicator declined to the current 4.0 level.

Still, the current lending ratio leans bullish in absolute terms, favoring stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin. It is worth highlighting that the overall sentiment improved since Nov. 8 as traders increased demand for margin longs using stablecoins.

Related: Genesis Global halts withdrawals citing 'unprecedented market turmoil'

Long-to-short data shows reduced demand for leverage longs

The top traders’ long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. By aggregating the positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, analysts can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

Exchanges' top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

The long-to-short ratio at Huobi stood at 0.98 between Nov. 8 and Nov. 15, indicating a balanced situation between leverage buyers and sellers. On the other hand, Binance traders initially faced a deep contraction in the demand for longs, but the movement was utterly subdued as buying activity dominated from Nov. 11 onward.

At the OKX exchange, the metric plunged from 1.30 on Nov. 8 to the present 0.81, favoring shorts. Therefore, according to the long-to-short indicator, the top traders significantly reduced their longs until Nov. 10, but then proceeded to increase long positions.

From a derivatives analysis point of view, neither futures nor margin markets display excess demand for shorts. Had the panic-based sentiment prevailed, one would expect worsening conditions on the Ether lending and long-to-short indicators.

Consequently, bulls are in control as traders are not comfortable taking bearish positions with ETH below $1,300.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Total crypto market cap drops to $850B as data suggests further downside

The crypto market managed an 11% bounce from the Nov. 9 low, but a handful of metrics show a severe lack of investor confidence.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by 24% between Nov. 8 and Nov. 10, reaching a $770 billion low. However, after the initial panic was subdued and forced future contracts liquidations were no longer pressuring asset prices, a sharp 16% recovery followed.

Total crypto market cap in USD, 2-days. Source: TradingView

This week’s dip was not the market's first rodeo below the $850 billion market capitalization level, and a similar pattern emerged in June and July. In both cases, the support displayed strength, but the $770 billion intraday bottom on Nov. 9 was the lowest since December 2020.

The 17.6% weekly drop in total market capitalization was mostly impacted by Bitcoin's (BTC) 18.3% loss and Ether's (ETH) 22.6% negative price move. Still, the price impact was more severe on altcoins, with 8 of the top 80 coins losing 30% or more in the period.

Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics

FTX Token (FTT) and Solana (SOL) were severely impacted by liquidations following the insolvency of FTX exchange and Alameda Research.

Aptos (APT) dropped 33% despite denying rumors that Aptos Labs or Aptos Foundation treasuries were held by FTX.

Stablecoin demand remained neutral in Asia

The USD Coin (USDC) premium is a good gauge of China-based crypto retail trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets, the stablecoin's market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

USDC peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Currently, the USDC premium stands at 100.8%, flat versus the previous week. Therefore, despite the 24% drop in total cryptocurrency market capitalization, no panic selling came from Asian retail investors.

However, this data should not be considered bullish, as the USDC buying pressure indicates traders seek shelter in stablecoins.

Few leverage buyers are using futures markets

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

Perpetual futures 7-day funding rate on Nov. 11. Source: Coinglass

As depicted above, the 7-day funding rate is slightly negative for the two largest cryptocurrencies and the data points to an excessive demand for shorts (sellers). Even though there is a 0.40% weekly cost to maintain open positions, it is not worrisome.

Traders should also analyze the options markets to understand whether whales and arbitrage desks have placed higher bets on bullish or bearish strategies.

The options put/call ratio points to worsening sentiment

Traders can gauge the overall sentiment of the market by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.

A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lag the more bullish calls by 30% and is therefore bullish. In contrast, a 1.20 indicator favors put options by 20%, which can be deemed bearish.

BTC options put-to-call ratio. Source: Cryptorank.io

As Bitcoin price broke below $18,500 on Nov. 8, investors rushed to seek downside protection. As a result, the put-to-call ratio subsequently increased to 0.65. Still, the Bitcoin options market remains more strongly populated by neutral-to-bearish strategies, as the current 0.63 level indicates.

Combining the absence of stablecoin demand in Asia and negatively skewed perpetual contract premiums, it becomes evident that traders are not comfortable that the $850 billion market capitalization support will hold in the near term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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