The total crypto market cap drops under $1.2T, but data show traders are less inclined to sell

June 11, 2022 Coin Telegraph

The total crypto market cap drops under .2T, but data show traders are less inclined to sell

Chainlink

An improving Tether discount in Asian markets and positive futures premiums for BTC and ETH suggest a slight recovery is in the making.

The total crypto market capitalization has been trading in a descending channel for the past 29 days and currently displays support at the $1.17 trillion level. In the past 7 days, Bitcoin (BTC) presented a modest 2% drop and Ether (ETH) faced a 5% correction.

*Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView*

The June 10 consumer price index (CPI) report showed an 8.6% year-on-year increase and crypto and stock markets immediately felt the impact, but it’s not certain whether the figure will convince the U.S. Federal Reserve to hesitate in future interest rate hikes.

Mid-cap altcoins dropped further, sentiment is still bearish

The generalized bearish sentiment caused by weak macroeconomic data and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to curb inflation has severely impacted crypto markets.

The Fear and Greed Index hit 11/100 on June 9, and the data-driven sentiment gauge has been below 20 since May 8.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: alternative.me*

This persistent "extreme fear" reading indicates that investors are worried but, at the same time, it supposedly presents a buying opportunity.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest losses, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins declined by 14% or more.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Helium’s (HNT) community approved the HIP-51 proposal, covering the economic and technical constructions required to support new users, devices and different types of networks, including cellular, VPN, and WiFi.

Chainlink (LINK) rallied 22% after the developers released a revamped Chainlink 2.0 roadmap, including native token staking.

Theta Token (THETA) gained 9.7% as the network announced livestream support using API technology which enabled instant and easy connection to apps and websites.

WAVES lost 28% after the $1,000 daily withdrawal limit for stablecoins in Vires Finance were implemented to avoid further pressure on the Neutrino Protocol Stablecoin (USDN).

Data shows traders are less inclined to sell at the current levels

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, Tether's market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

On May 31, the Tether price in Asian peer-to-peer markets entered a 4% discount, signaling intense retail selling pressure. Curiously, the situation improved on June 10 after the indicator moved to a 1.5% discount. Despite remaining negative, the metric shows investors' willingness to buy the dip as the total crypto capitalization dropped below $1.2 trillion.

To exclude externalities specific to the Tether instrument, traders must also analyze the cryptos futures markets. Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on June 10. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflected mixed sentiment after Bitcoin and Ethereum held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoin rates were negative. For example, BNB’s negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is generally not a concern for derivatives traders.

Any recovery depends on macroeconomic data stabilizing

According to derivatives and trading indicators, investors are less inclined to reduce their positions at current levels, as shown by the modest improvement in the Tether premium.

The positive funding rate for Bitcoin and Ether futures displays traders' growing appetite for leveraged long positions as the total crypto capitalization broke below $1.2 trillion.

Unless the traditional markets and macroeconomic scenario deteriorates, there is reason to believe crypto investors are expecting a positive price move soon.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

This key Ethereum price metric shows ETH traders aren’t as bearish as they appear

June 9, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Binance

Traders keep saying ETH price will collapse below $1,600 soon, but a key trading metric shows most are unwilling to place bearish bets below $1,900.

Ether (ETH) is down 25% in just a month and even the recent upgrade to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus on the Ropsten testnet failed to move the altcoin’s price.

The merge is meant to address energy-use issues and open a path for higher transaction output, but the actual full transition for the Ethereum network is not expected until later in the year. Ethereum developer Parithosh Jayanthi also noted that some bugs on the PoS implementation emerged, but those should be fixed over the coming weeks.

Luckily for Ethereum, two of its top competitors recently faced challenges of their own. The Solana (SOL) network faced the fifth outage in 2022 after no new blocks were produced for four hours on June 1. Every decentralized application was halted until the validators were able to address the problem and re-sync the network.

More recently, Binance’s native BNB token dropped 7% on June 7 after news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced that it had opened an investigation into the initial coin offer (ICO) from 2017. According to Bloomberg, at least one U.S. resident claimed to have taken part in the ICO, which could be crucial for an SEC case.

Regulatory uncertainty could be partially responsible for Ether's sharp correction. On June 6, Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released a note warning about the investment risks of nonfungible tokens . The regulatory agency highlighted the sectors' opaque pricing, illiquid markets and frauds.

Options traders are still extremely risk-averse

Traders should look at Ether's derivatives markets data to understand how larger-sized traders are positioned. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever whales and arbitrage desks overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If those traders fear an Ether price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew. That is precisely why the metric is known as the pro traders' fear and greed metric.

*Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

The skew indicator has been above 10% since May 22, and it recently peaked at 20% on June 3. Those levels signal extreme fear from options traders, and despite the modest improvement, the current 17% delta skew shows whales and arbitrage desks unwilling to take downside risk.

Long-to-short data is showing a few positives

The top traders' long-to-short net ratio excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the options markets. By analyzing these top clients' positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges' top traders Ether long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Even though Ether has struggled to sustain $1,800 as a support, professional traders did not change their positions between June 5 and 9, according to the long-to-short indicator.

Binance displayed a modest decrease in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 0.99 to the current 0.96 in four days. Thus, those traders slightly net increased their bearish bets.

Huobi data shows a similar pattern and the indicator moved from 1.02 to 0.98 on June 9, which was a small change favoring shorts. At OKX exchange, the metric oscillated drastically within the period but finished nearly unchanged at 1.35.

Mixed derivatives data provides hope for bulls

Overall, there hasn't been a significant change in whales and market makers' leverage positions despite Ether's failure to break the $1,900 resistance on June 6.

From one side, options traders fear that a deeper Ether price correction is likely in the making, but at the same time, futures market players have no conviction to increase bearish bets.

This reading is likely a "glass half full" scenario as the top traders' unwillingness to short below $1,900 can potentially create a support level.

Bitcoin bears have plenty of reasons to hold BTC price below $32,000

June 8, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bears have plenty of reasons to hold BTC price below ,000

Binance

Regulatory pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to pin traders' sentiment and BTC price under $32,000.

Since May 10, the Bitcoin (BTC) chart shows a relatively tight range of price movement and the cryptocurrency has failed to break the $32,000 resistance on multiple occasions.

*BTC-USD 12-hour price at Coinbase. Source: TradingView*

The choppy trading partially reflects the uncertainty of the stock market as the S&P 500 Index ranged from 3,900 to 4,180 in the same period. On one side, there has been economic growth in the Eurozone where the gross domestic product grew 5.1% year over year. On the other, inflation continues to soar, reaching 9% in the United Kingdom.

Further adding to Bitcoin's volatility was the digital assets regulatory framework proposal introduced to the U.S. Senate on June 7. The 69-page bipartisan bill is supported by Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York and it addresses the CFTC’s authority over applicable digital asset spot markets.

On June 3, South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) began an inquiry with 157 payment gateway services that work with digital assets. Previously, on May 24, South Korean officials opened an investigation against Do Kwon, the primary figure in the Terra incident.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also broke out an investigation against Binance Holdings on June 6. Binance is the world's largest crypto exchange in volume terms and the SEC is evaluating whether the BNB token initial coin offering violated securities rules.

On June 6, IRA Financial Trust, a platform providing self-directed digital asset retirement and pension accounts, filed a lawsuit against Gemini cryptocurrency exchange and claimed that a Feb. 8 breach led to a $36 million loss in crypto assets from customer accounts under Gemini's custody.

Let's look at Bitcoin's futures data to understand how professional traders are positioned, including whales and market makers.

Derivatives metrics reflect investors’ bearish expectations

Traders should analyze Bitcoin futures market data to understand how professional traders are positioned. The quarterly contracts are experienced traders' preferred instrument to avoid the perpetual futures’ fluctuating funding rate.

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 10% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money for two to three months until the contract expiry.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Bitcoin's futures premium has been below 4% since April 12, a reading typical of bearish markets. Even more concerning is that the last time these professional traders were bullish was over six months ago when the metric surpassed the 10% threshold.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign for when Bitcoin market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

During bullish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price pump, causing the skew indicator to move below negative 12%. On the other hand, a bear market's generalized panic induces a positive 12% or higher skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The 30-day delta skew has ranged from 12.5% to 23% between June 1 and 7, which signals options traders are pricing higher odds of a bearish movement. Still, it shows a moderate sentiment improvement from the previous couple of weeks.

Cryptocurrency regulation and weak economic numbers are clearly weighing on investor sentiment and derivatives data shows professional Bitcoin traders avoiding leveraged long positions, plus they are reluctant to take downside-risk.

At the moment, it’s clear that bears are comfortable with setting $32,000 as a resistance level and repeat drops to the $28,200 level are likely to continue.

Total crypto market cap risks a dip below $1 trillion if these 3 metrics don’t improve

June 3, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Total crypto market cap risks a dip below trillion if these 3 metrics don’t improve

Cardano

Declining demand for Tether, negative futures premiums for altcoins and the lack of inflow to the crypto sector are all signs that a rocky road is ahead.

The total crypto market capitalization has ranged from $1.19 trillion to $1.36 trillion for the past 23 days, which is a relatively tight 13% range. During the same time, Bitcoin’s (BTC) 3.5% and Ether’s (ETH) 1.6% gains for the week are far from encouraging.

To date, the total crypto market is down 43% in just two months, so investors are unlikely to celebrate even if the descending triangle formation breaks to the upside.

Regulation worries continue to weigh investor sentiment, a prime example being Japan’s swift decision to enforce new laws after the Terra USD (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — collapse. On June 3, Japan's parliament passed a bill to limit stablecoin issuing to licensed banks, registered money transfer agents and trust companies.

A few mid-cap altcoins rallied, but overall sentiment was unaffected

The bearish sentiment was clearly reflected in crypto markets as the Fear and Greed Index, a data-driven sentiment gauge, hit 10/100 on June 3. The indicator has been below 20 since May 8, as the total crypto capitalization lost the $1.7 trillion level to reach the lowest level since January 27.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest gains, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 13% or higher.

Waves rallied 109% after liquidity was brought back to Vires Finance and the Neutrino Protocol USDN stablecoin re-established its $1.00 peg after a $1,000 daily withdrawal limit was imposed on USDT and USDC.

Cardano (ADA) gained 19% as investors expect the "Vasil" hard fork scheduled for June 29 to improve scalability and smart contract functionality, incentivizing deposits to the long-hyped decentralized finance applications on the network.

Stellar (XLM) hiked 18.6% after the remittance giant MoneyGram partnered with the Stellar Development Foundation, launching a service that allows its users to send and convert stablecoins into fiat currencies.

Solana (SOL) lost 8% due to an unexpected block production halt on June 1, requiring validators to coordinate another mainnet restart after four hours of outage. The persistent issue has negatively impacted the network on seven occasions over the past 12 months.

Data points to further price pressure

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail crypto trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets, Tether's market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

Tether has been trading at a 2% or higher discount in Asian peer-to-peer markets since May 30. However, the indicator showed a modest deterioration as it bottomed at a 4% discount on June 1. This data leaves no doubt that retail traders were caught off-guard as the total crypto capitalization failed to break the $1.3 trillion resistance.

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on June 3. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflected mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ethereum held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoin rates were opposite. Solana's negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is not a huge concern for most derivatives traders.

According to derivatives and trading indicators, the market is at risk of seeing more downside. Evidence of this can be seen in the slightly higher demand for bearish positions on altcoins and the evident lack of buying appetite from Asia-based retail markets.

Bulls need to display strength and hold the $1.19 trillion market capitalization support to avoid an increase in leveraged sellers, bearish bets and the subsequent negative price pressure.

3 reasons why Ethereum price is pinned below $2,000

June 2, 2022 Coin Telegraph

3 reasons why Ethereum price is pinned below ,000

Coin Telegraph

ETH price is meeting strong resistance at the $2,000 level and these trading metrics explain why.

Ether’s (ETH) market structure continues to be bearish despite the failed attempt to break the descending channel resistance at $2,000 on May 31. This three-week-long price formation could mean that an eventual retest of the $1,700 support is underway.

*Ether/USD 4-hour price at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView*

On the non-crypto side, a number of equities-related factors are translating to negative sentiment in the crypto market. This week Microsoft (MSFT) lowered its profit and revenue outlook, citing challenging macroeconomic conditions. The U.S. Federal Reserve signalled in its periodic "Beige Book" that economic activity may have cooled in some parts of the country and the Fed is about to reduce its $9 trillion asset portfolio to combat persistent inflation.

On the bright side, an institutional investor survey published by The Economist magazine showed that 85% of the respondents agreed that open-source cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) or Ether (ETH) are useful as diversifiers in portfolio or treasury accounts.

From the macroeconomic perspective, investors are still risk-averse, which could translate to a reduced appetite for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum still has a mountain to climb

The Ethereum network's total value locked (TVL), the total amount of assets deposited to the network, has dropped by 5.5% since Ether began its downtrend three weeks ago.

*Ethereum network total value locked, ETH. Source: Defi Llama*

The network's TVL peaked at 28.7 billion Ether on May 10 and currently stands at 27.1 million. Decentralized finance (DeFi) deposits were deeply impacted by the USD Terra (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — stablecoin collapse on May 10. All things considered, the indicator shows a moderate decrease, which is somewhat expected after such an unprecedented event.

To understand how professional traders are positioned, let's look at Ether's futures market data. Quarterly futures are whales and arbitrage desks' preferred instruments due to their lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a 5% to 12% premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is also common in traditional assets such as stocks and commodities.

*Ether futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Over the past month, Ether's futures contracts premium has remained near 3%, which is below the 5% neutral-market threshold. The lack of leverage demand from buyers is evident as the current 2.5% basis indicator remains depressed despite Ether's 24% negative performance in three weeks.

Fear a global downturn continues to impact crypto prices

Ether's crash to $1,700 on May 27 drained any leftover bullish sentiment and, more importantly, caused $235 million in leverage long futures contract liquidations. Even though Ether price tested the $2,000 resistance on May 31, there is no evidence of strength from derivatives or DeFi deposits, according to the TVL metric.

As investors' focus remains on traditional markets and the impacts of global macroeconomic worsening conditions, there is little hope for a sustainable Ether price decoupling to the upside.

CFTC sues Gemini claiming the crypto exchange lied in futures contract evaluation

June 2, 2022 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

The agency says the exchange gave false information in person and in documents in its 2017 bid to be among the first to offer Bitcoin futures contracts.

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed suit against Gemini Trust Co. in the U.S. Southern District Court of New York on Thursday. The CFTC claimed in the civil suit that Gemini made false or misleading statements to the CFTC in 2017 during in-person meetings and in documents, violating the Commodity Exchange Act and other regulations.

The agency was making an evaluation of the potential self-certification of a Bitcoin (BTC) futures contract to be based on the spot Bitcoin price determined by an auction held on Gemini’s digital asset trading platform.

The CFTC was considering whether the proposed Bitcoin futures contract would be susceptible to manipulation. The proposed Bitcoin futures contract would have been among the first digital asset futures contracts listed.

Gemini is the cryptocurrency trading platform founded by brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. It announced staff cuts Thursday and is preparing to lay off 10% of its workers due to the crypto market downturn.

This story is still in development.

Bitcoin price broke to the upside, but where are all the leveraged long traders?

June 1, 2022 Coin Telegraph

basis

BTC price looks to break out of its downtrend, yet pro traders are still unwilling to add leveraged positions.

This week's Bitcoin (BTC) chart leaves little doubt that the symmetrical triangle pattern is breaking to the upside after constricting the price for nearly 20 days. However, derivatives metrics tell a completely different story because professional traders are unwilling to add leveraged positions and are overcharging for downside protection.

*BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

Will BTC reverse course even as macroeconomic conditions crumble?

Whether BTC turns the $30,000 to $31,000 level into support depends to some degree on how global markets perform.

The last time U.S. stock markets faced a seven-week consecutive downtrend was over a decade ago. New home sales in the U.S. declined for the fourth straight month, which is also the longest streak since October 2010.

China saw a whopping 20% year-on-year decline for its on-demand services, the worst change on record. According to government data released on May 30, consumer spending for internet services from January to April stood at $17.7 billion.

The value of stock offerings in Europe also hit the worst level in 19 years after rising interest rates, inflation and macroeconomic uncertainties caused investors to seek shelter in cash positions. According to Bloomberg, initial public offerings and follow-on transactions raised a mere $30 billion throughout 2022.

All of the above make it easier to understand the discrepancy between the recent Bitcoin price recovery to $32,300 and weak derivatives data because investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn, primarily driven by worsening global macroeconomic conditions.

Derivatives metrics are neutral-to-bearish

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders' preferred instrument because they avoid the perpetual contracts fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets. Consequently, futures should trade at a 5% to 12% annualized premium in healthy markets.

According to data from Laevitas, Bitcoin's futures premium has been below 4% since April 12. This reading is typical of bearish markets and it’s worrisome that the metric failed to break above the 5% neutral threshold even as the price moved toward $32,000.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is optimal as it shows when Bitcoin market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

During bearish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price crash, causing the skew indicator to move above 12%. On the other hand, a bull markets' generalized excitement induces a negative 12% or lower skew.

The 30-day delta skew peaked at 25.4% on May 14, the highest-ever record and typical of extremely bearish markets. However, the situation improved on May 30 and 31 as the indicator stabilized at 14%, but it prices in higher odds of a price crash. Still, it shows a moderate sentiment improvement from derivatives traders.

The risks of a global economic slowdown are probably the main reason why Bitcoin options markets are stressed and why the futures premium is still low. The 30-day correlation of BTC versus the S&P 500 index is at 89%, meaning traders have fewer incentives to place bullish bets on cryptocurrencies.

Some metrics suggest that the stock market may have bottomed last week, especially since it’s trading 8.5% above the May 20 intraday low, but weak economic numbers are weighing on investor sentiment. This drives the risk-averse momentum and has a negative impact on cryptocurrency markets.

Until there's a better definition for traditional finance and the world's biggest economies, Bitcoin traders should continue to avoid building leveraged long positions and maintain a bearish stance, a feature that is currently reflected in options markets.

Bitcoin’s recent gains have traders calling a bottom, but various metrics remain bearish

May 30, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Asia

The total crypto market capitalization recovered roughly 5%, but a variety of trading metrics show investors are skeptical about the rally being a trend change.

On May 30, the total crypto market capitalization gained 4% and currently is within reach of a $1.3 trillion market capitalization. The move was enough to erase the losses from the previous seven days and was driven mainly by Bitcoin's (BTC) 4.9% gain during that time frame.

Apart from Bitcoin, Cardano (ADA) was the only large-cap cryptocurrency that managed to close the week with a positive 4.5% performance. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH), BNB, Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) failed to present weekly gains.

Bitcoin’s turn-around happened after the United States stock market presented gains for the first time after seven consecutive negative weeks. The longest losing streak in over a decade for the S&P 500 was followed by a 6.6% positive performance at the closing bell on May 22.

According to Yahoo! Finance, “a favorable batch of quarterly results from major retailers helped at least temporarily mitigate concerns over the toll [that ...] inflationary headwinds could take on profit margins.” For instance, Macy’s (M) gained 29.1% in the week, followed by Nordstrom (JWN) 25.4% positive performance and Ross Stores (ROST) rallied by 21.5%.

Curiously, JP Morgan sent out a research note to clients on May 25, claiming that $38,000 was the fair value for Bitcoin. The global investment bank also said that Terra's (LUNA) collapse did not harm the crypto venture capital demand.

On May 23, during the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, PayPal vice president Richard Nash stated the company’s intention to embrace all possible crypto and blockchain services. After rolling out its Bitcoin trading across the United States in 2020, PayPal continues to expand its digital currency-related offering.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the leading cryptocurrencies presented modest movements, some mid-capitalization altcoins presented high volatility.

Synthetix (SNX) rallied 15.8% after Kwenta, a zero-slippage derivatives trading application powered by Synthetix, reached $325 million in volume.

Helium (HNT) gained 15.2% after details regarding improvement proposal #51 were released on May 27. The change introduces a framework to enable subnets with their own token and governance.

STEPN Governance (GMT) lost 14.6% after blocking users based in mainland China from its mobile app.

Terra Luna Classic (LUNC), previously known as LUNA, moved down 12.2% after the South Korean authorities summoned all employees at Terraform Labs as part of a full-scale investigation.

Due to the mixed performance of altcoin markets, it is worth investigating how traders are positioned according to trading and derivatives indicators.

The Tether premium shows a lack of retail demand

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail trader crypto demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value. On the other hand, during bearish markets, Tether's market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

Between May 23 and 30, the Tether premium in CNY terms has averaged a 2% discount, signaling a lack of retail demand. More importantly, the 4% crypto market capitalization rally on May 30 did not change investors' sentiment.

Derivatives indicators are slightly bearish for altcoins

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on May 30. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflect mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ether held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoins signaled the opposite. For example, Solana's negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is irrelevant for most derivatives traders.

The data suggests that investors are not rushing in to confirm that the recent price recovery represents a trend change. While the total crypto market capitalization broke above the $1.3 trillion support, traders are pricing higher odds of a downturn. So far, there is no clear indication of a market bottom according to trading metrics.

Top Crypto Analyst Gives Three Massive Price Targets for Bitcoin (BTC) in Year 2030

May 29, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry

May 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Ethereum price dips below the .8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s B options expiry

Beacon Chain

Looming macroeconomic concerns and this week’s $1B ETH options expiry threaten to pin Ethereum price under the $1,800 support.

Ether's (ETH) performance over the past three months has been less than satisfying for holders and the 50% correction since April 3 caused the altcoin to test the $1,800 support for the first time since July 2021.

*Ether/USD 1-day chart at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

Due to the volatility in stocks, investors had been seeking shelter in the United States dollar and on May 13 the DXY index reached its highest level in 20 years. DXY measures the USD against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the British Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR) and Japanese Yen (JPY).

Moreover, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level since August 2018, trading at 3.10% on May 9 and signaling that investors demand larger returns to compensate for inflation. In a nutshell, macroeconomic data reflects risk-averse sentiment from investors and this partially explains Ether's downturn.

Further creating panic among Ether traders was a 7-block chain reorg on Ethereum's Beacon Chain on May 25. A valid transaction sequence was knocked off the chain due to a competing block getting more support from network participants. Fortunately, this situation is not uncommon and it might have emerged from a miner with high resources or a bug.

The main victim of Ether’s 11% price correction was leverage traders (longs) who saw $160 million in aggregate liquidations at derivatives exchanges, according to data from Coinglass.

Bulls placed their bets at $2,100 and higher

The open interest for the Ether’s May monthly options expiry is $1.04 billion, but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $2,950 on May 4 because their bets for the May 27 options expiry extend beyond $3,000.

The drop below $1,800 took bulls by surprise because virtually none of the call (buy) options for May 27 have been placed below that price level.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for May 27. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows the slight dominance of the $540 million put (sell) open interest against the $505 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,800, every bullish bet is likely to become worthless.

If Ether's price remains below $1,800 at 8:00 am UTC on May 27, none of the $505 million call options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Ether at $1,800 or higher is worthless if Ether trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for a $325 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 27 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,600 and $1,700: 0 calls vs. 230,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $370 million.
Between $1,700 and $1,800: 50 calls vs. 192,300 puts. The net result favors bears by $325 million.
Between $1,800 and $2,000: 3,300 calls vs. 150,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $280 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bulls should throw the towel and focus on the June expiry

Ether bears need to sustain the price below $1,800 on May 27 to secure a $325 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best case scenario requires a push above $1,800 to reduce the damage by $45 million.

Ether bulls had $160 million leverage long positions liquidated on May 26, so they should have less margin to drive the price higher. With this said, bears will undoubtedly try to suppress Ether below $1,800 ahead of the May 27 options expiry.

futures