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Overwhelming support for Grayscale BTC Trust ETF conversion proposal

Investors air their thoughts as to why the SEC should approve the conversion of Grayscale’s BTC Trust into a spot ETF.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has allowed comments and feedback on a proposed rule change that would convert Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust to a spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

A notice of filing a proposed rule change to list and trade shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as a spot-based ETF has generated a long list of comments with a large majority in approval.

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas had a look through some of the more recent comments on Feb. 15 observing that 95% are in favor of the proposed conversion.

Several respondents to the SEC proposal argued that the regulator had already approved futures-based exchange-traded products so a spot-based product should logically come next. The U.S. risks falling behind other countries such as Canada which has already approved such investment products, others added.

A spot-based fund would be physically backed by the asset itself as opposed to backing by futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) which is how existing Bitcoin ETFs operate.

Another comment pointed out that the current fund creates arbitrage opportunities that can take advantage of retail traders.

“The current structure of the closed end fund has led to price of the fund trading at a premium and discount to net asset value which has created arbitrage opportunities for more sophisticated traders to take advantage of unsuspecting retail investors.”

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has been trading at a massive discount in recent months as investors speculate and hedge on the ETF being approved by the SEC. At the time of writing, the fund was trading at a discount of 24.75% according to Ycharts. This means that with BTC currently priced at around $43,600, the discounted fund price would be equivalent to around $32,500.

One investor said that he invested his life savings into the fund and is tired of the SEC trying to protect people, adding that the regulator is just out to “help the rich.” The financial regulator has repeatedly cited a lack of investor protection as a reason for delaying or rejecting crypto-based investment products.

Related: First US Bitcoin ETF a ‘dud’ in 2021 as GBTC discount stays near record lows

Grayscale originally hinted at converting the world’s largest BTC fund into a spot ETF in October. On Feb. 4, the SEC delayed the decision on the conversion of the $37 billion GBTC fund citing the same familiar concerns regarding manipulation, liquidity, and transparency.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

Injective Protocol (INJ) rallies 100%+ after launching cross-chain support for Cosmos

INJ books a 100%+ gain shortly after the release of the Injective Bridge v2 and the launch of DEX-based perpetual futures for ATOM.

Trading perpetual futures contracts in decentralized apps is a crypto sub-sector ripe for growth, especially as discussions of regulation, taxation and mandatory KYC at centralized exchanges continue to take place.

One DEX platform that has begun to gain traction is Injective (INJ), an interoperable layer-one protocol designed to facilitate the creation of cross-chain Web3 decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $3.91 on Feb. 3, the price of INJ has rallied 157.8% to a daily high of $10.08 on Feb. 11 amidst a 1,756% spike in its 24-hour trading volume to $306 million.

INJ/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the spike in demand for INJ include the addition of support for new assets in spot and perpetual markets, the release of Injective Bridge v2 and a climbing total value locked on the protocol as a result of staking and the addition of new assets.

Injective Bridge v2

The most recent development that helped kick off the price growth for INJ was the release of the Injective Bridge v2 at the end of January, which included a variety of upgrades designed to help facilitate cross-chain compatibility with Cosmos (ATOM) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to Injective, the new bridge is capable of supporting any ERC-20 token and multiple Cosmos-based tokens including ATOM, Osmosis (OSMO) and Terra (LUNA).

Over time, Injective looks to have the bridge become a launchpad of sorts for new Web3 projects that want to allow users to transfer assets from the Ethereum network for zero fees.

There are also zero bridge fees when transferring funds into the Inter-blockchain communication protocol (IBC)-enabled chains.

Injective Protocol adds support for new assets

A second development helping to bring fresh momentum to Injective has been the addition of new assets to the DEX, including the first-ever decentralized perpetual futures for ATOM.

Along with a perpetual futures contract for ATOM, Injective also added spot trading for the Cosmos-based project Chihuahua (HUAHUA) and there is also an active community vote to add Juno.

The addition of new assets helped lead to an increase in trading volume on the protocol over the past few days after hitting its lowest level in several months on Feb. 2.

Inject DEX daily trading volume. Source: Injective

While it has excited the Injective community to see an uptick in trading volume on the protocol, it's worth noting that the current volume is but a small fraction of the volume seen on the top perpetual futures protocol dYdX, which saw a daily volume of $3.2 billion on Feb. 10 and $2.8 billion on Feb. 11.

Related: Is the rise of derivatives trading a risk to retail crypto investors?

TVL soars

The release of Injective Bridge v2 was also followed by a surge in the total value locked on the platform, and data from DeFi Llama shows the metric hitting a new all-time high.

Total value locked on Injective. Source: Defi Llama

As of Feb. 11, the total value looked on Injective is $147.35 million, an increase of more than $100 million from its low of $43.96 million on Jan. 23.

The TVL on INJ consists of assets that are deposited for trading purposes as well as INJ tokens that are staked on the network earning an APR of 9.15%.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro also began to detect a bullish outlook for INJ on Feb. 6 prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. INJ price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for INJ spiked into the green zone and hit a high of 75 on Feb. 6, around 39 hours before the price began to increase 117% over the next three days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

2 key indicators cast doubt on the strength of the current crypto market recovery

BTC and altcoins flashed bullish this week, but the perpetual contracts funding rate and Tether premium reflect a lack of confidence from traders.

Analyzing the aggregate cryptocurrency market performance over the past 7 days could give investors the impression that the total market capitalization grew by a mere 4% to $2.03 trillion, but this data is heavily impacted by the top 5 coins, which happen to include two stablecoins.

Excluding Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB) and stablecoins reflects a 9.3% market capitalization increase to $418 billion from $382 billion on Feb 4. This explains why so many of the top-80 altcoins hiked 25% or more while very few presented a negative performance.

Winners and losers among the top-80 coins. Source: Nomics

Gala Games (GALA) announced on Feb. 9 a partnership with world renowned hip-hop star Snoop Dogg to launch his new album and exclusive non-fungible token (NFT) campaign. Gala Games also has plans to support additional content like access to films, comics, and more in the future.

Theta Network (THETA), a decentralized video sharing platform, was fueled by a Theta Labs funding grant to Replay, a Web3 content payment and tracking protocol for content owners. According to the release, Replay's end-to-end solution will allow Theta users to be fairly rewarded for their contributions.

XRP also rallied after Ripple got permission for a 'fair notice defense’ to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The decision refers to the ongoing court case in which the SEC claimed that Ripple sold XRP as illegal securities.

On the other hand, the worst performers included decentralized storage protocols Arweave (AR) and Dfinity (ICP). Meanwhile, Cosmos (ATOM) saw the total value locked in the CosmosHub smart contract drop by 82% to $1.2 million.

Lastly, Solana (SOL) continued to reflect the negative sentiment directly connected to the Wormhole token bridge smart contract that was exploited on Feb. 2. The $321 million wrapped Ethereum hack was the largest loss so far in 2022.

Tether premium reflects low retail demand

The OKEx Tether (USDT) premium measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the official U.S. dollar currency. Excessive cryptocurrency retail demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value, or 100%. On the other hand, bearish markets likely flood Tether's market offer, causing a 4% or higher discount.

Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Currently, the metric has a 99.5% reading, which is neutral, but the gap has been closing over the past 6 weeks. This signals that retail demand is picking up and is a positive reading considering that the total cryptocurrency capitalization remains 35% below the $3 trillion all-time high.

Futures markets confirm the lack of “euphoria”

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Those measures are established to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, and this causes the funding rate to turn negative.

Perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate on Feb. 11. Source: Coinglass

As depicted above, the eight-hour fee is either zero or slightly negative in most cases. This data indicates a balanced leverage demand from longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers). Had there been a relevant risk appetite from either side, the rate would be above 0.05%, equivalent to 1% per week.

Perpetual futures are retail traders' preferred derivatives because its price tends to track the regular spot markets. The Tether premium and the funding rate are neutral-to-bearish despite the 4% weekly gain, but one should factor in that cryptocurrencies have recently faced a 50% drawdown, meaning these indicators are somewhat skewed.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

TMX Group Canada to unveil crypto futures product later this year

The news from TMX Group arrives as cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining interest from investors and companies.

In response to institutional investors' concerns about the risks of trading in a new asset class, TMX Group, Canada's major stock market operator, has revealed plans to launch its first-ever crypto futures product.

While speaking to Reuters, TMX Group's John McKenzie said that the firm plans to release the product on the Montreal Exchange later this year. According to Mackenzie, "more institutional investors and dealers are [...] holding more crypto assets within their portfolios or for their clients or in ETFs," adding they are working on how to mitigate risk due to crypto's huge volatility.

Cointelegraph reached out to TMX Group for more details regarding this development. This article will be updated pending new information.

Cryptocurrency assets have suffered significant drops in recent months as investors sought safer investments amid expectations of interest rate hikes by central banks. They've made progress in recovering some of their losses in recent weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC) regaining past the $42K mark and the price of Ether (ETH) pulling back to retest $3,000 support levels.

The news from TMX Group arrives as cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining interest from investors and organizations. The most well-known example is business intelligence software firm MicroStrategy, which has converted all of its cash reserves into Bitcoin and even raised debt to finance further purchases.

Related: MicroStrategy CEO won’t sell $5B BTC stash despite crypto winter

As reported by Cointelegraph earlier this week, KPMG, one of Canada's top accounting firms, added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its corporate treasury, becoming the latest big firm to convert a portion of its fiat assets into cryptocurrencies.

Electric automaker Tesla was holding nearly $2 billion in Bitcoin on its balance sheet at the end of 2021, according to official records published on Monday. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, forty publicly listed businesses now hold BTC.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

Ethereum price holds above $3K but network data suggests bulls may get trapped

ETH price just broke from a long-term descending channel, but on-chain data still points to a few bearish catalysts.

When analyzing Ether's (ETH) price chart, one could conclude that the 3-month long bearish trend has been broken for a few reasons. The current $3,100 price range represents a 43% recovery in 15 days and, more importantly, the descending channel resistance was ruptured on Feb. 7. 

Should Ether bulls start celebrating and calling for $4,000 and higher? That largely depends on how retail traders are positioned, along with the Ethereum network's on-chain metrics. For instance, is the $30-plus transaction fee impacting the use of decentralized applications (dApps), or are there any other factors that will prohibit Ether's price growth?

Ether (ETH) price at FTX, in USD. Source: TradingView

Since the 55.6% correction from the $4,870 all-time high to the cycle bottom at $2,160 on Jan. 24, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break the $45,500 resistance and traders concluded that a 12% correction was the most likely scenario.

On a brighter note, on Feb. 7, Big Four auditor KPMG's Canadian wing announced the addition of Bitcoin and Ether to its corporate treasury. The decision reflects KPMG Canada's belief that cryptocurrencies are a "maturing asset class," according to Benjie Thomas, a managing partner for the firm.

Derivatives data tells a different story

To understand how confident traders are about Ether's price recovery, one should analyze the perpetual contracts futures data. This instrument is the retail traders' preferred market because its price tends to track the regular spot markets.

In any futures contract trade, longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are matched at all times, but their use of leverage varies. Consequently, exchanges will charge a funding rate to whichever side demands more leverage, and this fee is paid to the opposing side.

Ether perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: Coinglass

This indicator will tell us whether retail traders are getting excited, which would cause it to move above 0.05%, equivalent to 1% per week. Notice how the past couple of months showed a slightly negative funding rate, reflecting the bearish sentiment. Currently, there is no sign that retail traders are confident enough to reopen leveraged long positions.

One should analyze the Ethereum network's on-chain data to understand if the lack of confidence is specific to leverage trading. For example, even though there is no set relation between Ether's price and network use, low transaction volume and a decline in active users could be a concern if decoupled from a price hike.

On-chain metrics raise concern

Measuring the monetary value of the ETH transacted on the network provides a reliable indicator of effective use. Of course, this metric could be masqueraded by increasing adoption in layer-2 solutions but it remains a starting point.

Sum of native token units transferred per day. Source: CoinMetrics

The current $6.2 billion daily transaction average is a 55% drop from December's peak and not really far from the 1-year low at $5.6 billion. Thus, it is safe to conclude that Ether token use is not showing signs of growth, at least on the primary layer.

Analysts should also check decentralized applications usage metrics. One must remember that the Total Value Locked (TVL) is heavily concentrated on lending platforms and decentralized exchanges (DEX). Consequently, gauging the number of active addresses provides a broader view.

Ethereum network 30-day dApps activity. Source: DappRadar

Apart from the non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace Opensea, Ethereum dApps saw a monthly 28% decrease in the number of active addresses. In a nutshell, that is disappointing usage data because the smart contract network was specifically designed to host decentralized applications.

Unless there's an uptick in Ether transactions and dApps usage metrics, investors will interpret any Ether price move above $3,000 as a potential bull trap. As for retail traders' neutral funding rate, it might as well be a bullish sign that the investor class typically enters long leverage positions after a strong rally.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

Bitcoin bulls aim to solidify control over BTC price by flipping $44K to support

Bulls seek to flip $44,000 to support and analysts forecast further upside for BTC, calling the asset “the Amazon of our time.”

Hope for the possibility of another significant rally in the cryptocurrency market has returned, even though Bitcoin (BTC) rejected at $45,500. Currently, bulls are looking to shore up their defense at the $43,000 support level. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after making a run to a weekly high at $45,500 early on Tuesday, bears managed to drop the price of BTC to $42,900 during afternoon trading as investors realized profits and prepare to place bids around $38,000.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what analysts are saying sparked the rally in BTC price over the past week and what levels to keep an eye on moving forward.

Legitimate breakout or a short squeeze?

The sudden move higher caught many traders off guard as headlines across the crypto space were predicting the onset of an extended bear market, but such dire warnings may have been premature based on data from a recent report from Glassnode. The blockchain analysis firm stated that “prices have bounced off a number of fundamental levels that have historically signaled undervaluation or a ‘fair value' price.”

Through analyzing the data of liquidations on futures exchanges, Glassnode surmised that while the Long Liquidation Dominance charts “show that shorts have been on the back-foot this week, with a minor skew towards short side liquidations,” the lackluster magnitude of this metric indicates “that it is unlikely that price upside is being primarily driven by a short squeeze."

Bitcoin futures open interest daily change. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode noted that during previous instances of major price declines, the futures open interest (OI) saw significant drawdowns or “de-leveraging events” as shown by the large downward red spikes on the graph above, a feature which is noticeably absent from this latest price decline.

Glassnode said,

“This may indicate the probability of a short squeeze is lower than first estimated, or that such an event remains possible should the market continue higher, reaching clusters of short seller stop-loss/liquidation levels.”

“We’re still in a traders' market”

The forces in the wider financial markets that are impacting Bitcoin price were addressed by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who highlighted the recent correlation between BTC and tech-stocks and questioned what it will take for “Bitcoin to get its destiny back in its own hands.”

According to Lifchitz, “stocks are still in ‘la-la-land’ whereas bonds are more in reality,” helping to provide a clearer picture as to the strength of the global financial markets based on the fact that “bonds tend to lead the way for stocks, and bonds are already struggling.”

When it comes to what comes next for BTC, Lifchitz offered reassuring words for bulls worried about the large head and shoulders pattern on the BTC chart, stating that the pattern was "invalidated by the recent bounce in BTC price."

Moving forward, Lifchitz identified the near-term targets for Bitcoin at $48,000, $51,000 and $53,000 but warned that there is a possibility for a “pullback to the mid/high $30,000s” before hitting $53,000.

Lifchitz said,

“In the meantime, we're still in a traders' market with opportunities to grab a few points here and there between the soft targets: profits should be quickly taken off the table on each small pullback, then rinse, repeat. Without any macro catalyst, it's hard to see Bitcoin trend much higher in a straight line.”

Related: DoJ seizes $3.6B in crypto and arrests two in connection with 2016 Bitfinex hack

Bitcoin is “the Amazon of our time”

A final bit of insight into the price action for Bitcoin as it compares to the growth of Amazon stock price was offered by analysts at Macro Hive, a financial market research outlet that considers Bitcoin to be “the Amazon of our time.”

Macro Hive highlighted that “even Amazon suffered large drawdowns that took years to recover from” and they suggested that “your exposure to Bitcoin needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns.”

Amazon stock price performance. Source: MacroHive

MacroHive said,

“But major drawdowns also provide good entry levels for exposure. Our metrics suggest that we are getting closer to that point, so we would consider accumulating exposure. However, we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.949 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.7%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

From Morgan Stanley to crypto world: in a conversation with Phemex founder

Running a crypto business is no easy job. And running a crypto exchange might seem like an impossible job to do.

Founded in 2019 in Singapore, Phemex has been operating as a crypto derivatives exchange. The platform rose to the “top 10 global exchanges in less than two years, with a daily peak trading volume of more than $12 billion.” Cointelegraph talked to Jack Tao, founder and CEO of Phemex, about the difficulties and risks of running a crypto exchange and where he plans to take Phemex next.

Tell us about the story behind the exchange and what it was like to launch a trading platform during the crypto winter?

The story behind Phemex is one that seeks to provide solutions to the many issues I witnessed in traditional finance. When I initially discovered crypto, I was really excited because it seemed to be a way that would allow me to address the inefficiencies traditional finance has.

One technology solution, in particular, is blockchain. Because it offers many possibilities, my initial motivation was just to try it out and learn more. This led me to setting up a few modest mining operations and experimenting with various exchanges and trading platforms.

My first venture into cryptocurrency ended in significant losses. Despite the enormous promise that cryptos presented, I realized the sector still had a long way to go. The exchange I was using at the time had a lot of technical issues, which resulted in frequent outages and hacks. There were no standards in place, and there was little trust. To fix this, I sought to discover a solution by combining my financial and technological expertise gained on Wall Street.

The end result is Phemex, a powerful and efficient platform that, despite its partial Wall Street background, is dedicated to assisting everyone, not just a select few, in achieving financial independence. Phemex is great because it leverages traditional finance standards and tools while remaining true to cryptocurrency's values of financial freedom and self-empowerment.

How does a decade-long experience at Morgan Stanley help you manage your company?

Before co-founding Phemex, I held the position of global development VP of Electronic Trading (MSET) Benchmark Execution Strategies (BXS) at Morgan Stanley. My experience in finance gave me the fundamental skills and insights that made it possible to launch Phemex.

Because I had over ten years of experience building high throughput, low latency, large-scale algorithmic trading platforms, I was able to pinpoint the primary problems that faced the TradeFi sector. Because I could recognize the problems, all I needed to do was find the solutions, which was to build Phemex as one of the most reliable cryptocurrency and derivatives platforms.

I'm proud to say that Phemex has grown exponentially since its launch, and we now offer a variety of crypto spot markets and derivative contracts with up to 100x leverage. We've risen to the top 10 global exchanges in less than two years, with a daily peak trading volume of more than $12 billion.

What are the most difficult aspects of operating a crypto exchange? Does location play any role in it?

Operating a cryptocurrency exchange is not an easy task. Major challenges include safety and security concerns to make sure we are providing the most trustworthy and safe platform to our users. System and user account security are one of our highest priorities, and we have designed and implemented a Hierarchical Deterministic Cold Wallet System, which assigns separate cold wallet deposit addresses to each user.

All the deposits on Phemex are periodically gathered in the company’s multisignature cold wallet via offline signature. Based on our sophisticated Wall Street risk control experience, we are able to detect any malicious actions and quickly act to protect our users’ assets and the platform. Qualified withdrawal requests are also processed via offline signature, thereby, all assets remain 100% stored in a cold wallet system with all operations conducted offline.

With regards to location, choosing where to operate a cryptocurrency exchange is not so different from choosing where to operate a normal business. The considerations are actually quite simple: you want a good business and supportive policy environment, a growing economy, a city or cluster with talent that is innovative and entrepreneurial, as well as other business-friendly regulations and compliance structures.

Singapore is one place that matches these criteria. Singapore has emerged as a major cryptocurrency hub in Southeast Asia. Singapore not only has a strong financial sector and geopolitical position, but the city has also created a crypto-enabling environment, which has been essential to Phemex’s growth in such a short time. We are rapidly expanding our team in Singapore, and I’m excited to see what the future holds. 

How does doing this business in 2022 differ from doing it in 2019?

The cryptocurrency and blockchain business has definitely changed from 2019 to 2022. I’ll give you a few examples.

In 2019, the crypto market cap ended the year under $200 billion. Right now, the market cap is at $1.6 trillion, and at one point in 2021, it reached $3 trillion. So the difference in this regard is quite obvious. There’s more attention to the industry, there’s more investor interest, both retail and institutional, and there’s greater adoption. So doing business in this environment now where there’s more demand than before has been very beneficial. 

Another difference now compared to 2019 is the actual cryptocurrencies on the market. An interesting exercise I’d recommend any curious reader do is keep a yearly tab on the top 50 cryptos from whatever base year and compare it to the next. It’ll feel like comparing different technology epochs. 

But despite the rapid changes in the industry, we at Phemex will continue to move forward, and we will continue to launch new products and give our investors access to the best cryptocurrencies on the market.

“Many businesses claim to embody the ideals of crypto and blockchain, but the reality is that they’ve simply implemented the same old models, driven by profits and self-interest, to a new space. Our slogan, “Break Through, Break Free” – what do you mean by this statement?

After working in traditional finance for over a decade, I became disillusioned by the many limitations and injustices I witnessed. The industry is plagued by unreasonable fees and inefficient systems. In various ways, these all serve to favor the wealthy and suppress the underprivileged. This is why I said that many businesses today only imply the basic principles of crypto and blockchain. However, many of these businesses merely apply the same old profit-driven and self-interested endeavors to their own business models.

Our slogan, "Break Through, Break Free," encapsulates our company's principles and objectives. Phemex has everything a person needs to break into a better system where true financial autonomy is not only encouraged but embedded into the system's core. We believe that any individual can have the power to change their own lives and choose their own reality.

What’s next for Phemex? What should your community and users expect in 2022?

From a basic new currency to facilitating decentralized transactions to reconstructing practically the whole traditional financial system on-chain, we've come a long way. We will recreate and invent any imaginable service or process in the next phase, not only financial ones.

I'm also enthusiastic about some of the recent patterns I've seen. Specifically, the metaverse and nonfungible tokens (NFTs) have sparked my interest. The current surge of NFT collectibles and art, while possibly inflated, nonetheless points to a promising future. We're rethinking what ownership entails, and we're just getting started with new uses for on-chain assets. 

Similarly, the metaverse contains innovative GameFi, play-to-earn, and wealth distribution mechanisms that have the potential to profoundly alter our digital activities. And this is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of what's possible and what lies ahead.

Phemex has aided the growth of the metaverse by listing assets such as AXS, MANA, YGG, SAND, SLP and many more to come. We'll continue to keep a careful eye on this powerful megatrend.

Learn more about Phemex

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you with all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor can this article be considered as investment advice.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical

Traders expect BTC to flip $40,000 back to support soon, but derivatives metrics signal that a different outcome could occur.

The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders, but there's a positive spin to the data.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView

The road to $40,000 seems uncomfortably predictable, and cryptocurrency traders usually call it "manipulation" when such price movements happen.

Regardless of the rationale behind Bitcoin's price recovery, investors should analyze derivatives markets to understand how whales, market makers and arbitrage desks are positioned.

While retail traders' favorite instrument is the perpetual contract (inverse swaps), pro traders often opt for fixed-calendar futures and options. Although they are more complicated to trade, these derivatives offer more complex strategies.

Liquidations are behind us, but so is the route to $69,000

Data shows that there hasn't been a relevant futures contract liquidation since Jan. 23. When leverage long (buyers) have their positions terminated, it accelerates the price correction, because derivatives exchanges need to sell those futures at market prices.

Total crypto futures liquidations, USD. Source: Coinglass

Notice how the last “big” forced position termination on longs was $290 million on Jan. 23. This partially explains why Bitcoin’s recovery was relatively tranquil over the past week. Still, the market is nowhere near being out of the water, considering that BTC is currently trading 44% below the $69,000 all-time high.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money for 2 to 3 months until the contract expiry. Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 12% indicate bullishness.

The above chart shows that this metric dipped below 5% on Jan. 21 and hasn't yet shown signs of confidence from pro traders.

So the big question is: Is the glass half full? For example, if Bitcoin breaks the $42,000 resistance, some traders will likely be caught off guard, so there's additional buying activity because no one wants to be left behind.

Bitcoin futures markets are neutral, but options traders are skeptical

Currently, it’s a bit difficult to discern a direction in the market, but the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch

As displayed above, we've been near 10% for almost a week despite the 18% BTC price recovery since the $33,000 bottom. The options skew data shows that pro traders are still pricing higher odds for a market crash.

Despite the not-so-positive indicator from Bitcoin options, these arbitrage desks and market makers will be forced to reverse bearish positions once the price breaks $42,000. However, considering that the futures premium did not show signs of desperation even as the market crashed 52% from the all-time high, the data provides a constructive view.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

TVL, network outages, or derivatives: What’s behind Solana’s (SOL) 60%+ drop?

SOL price is more than 60% away from its all-time high and data shows that it's not the network outages but the loss of territory to competing chains driving the correction.

The past couple of months have not been kind to cryptocurrencies. The sector's aggregate market capitalization plunged 50% from a Nov. 10 peak at $2.87 trillion to the current $1.44 trillion. Solana's (SOL) downfall has been even more brutal, presently trading at $88 after a 66% correction since its $260 all-time-high.

Pinning the underperformance exclusively to the recent network outages seems too simplistic, and it doesn't explain why the accelerated decoupling over the past week, so let's take a look at what might be going on.

Solana/USDT at FTX (blue) vs. Total crypto capitalization (orange). Source: TradingView

The Solana network suffered four incidents in the span of a few months. According to the project's developers, a sudden spike in the number of computing transactions caused network congestion which crippled the network.

Interestingly, the network struggles with congestion since the developers advertise a 50,000 transaction per second (TPS) capacity. The latest incident on Jan. 7 has been attributed to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, but data shows us that network attacks are less relevant than dApps use.

Cyber Capital chief investment officer Justin Bons criticized the network's security, mentioning that DDoS can be used to "temporarily gain proportional-staked control over the network by attacking other stakeholders."

Sergey Zhdanov, chief operating officer of crypto exchange EXMO UK, also said DDoS attacks and similar outages "don't really influence the trust of the network" and should be disregarded. Zhdanov makes a point comparing Ethereum network fees surpassing $50 as a similar hiccup, but not significant enough to cause investors to abandon it for good.

Solana's main decentralized application metric started to display weakness earlier in November after the network's total value locked (TVL), which measures the amount deposited in its smart contracts, began to linger at $15 billion.

Solana network Total Value Locked, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Notice how Solana's dApp deposits saw a 44% decrease in 3 months, as the indicator reached its lowest level since Sept. 8. As a comparison, Fantom's TVL currently stands at $9.5 billion, a 79% increase in 3 months. Another dApp scaling solution competitor, Terra, saw a 60% TVL hike to $16 billion.

Not even the $10 million raised by Solana's decentralized finance (DeFi) application Hubble Protocol in early January was enough to recover investors' confidence. Crypto heavyweights like Three Arrows, Digital Currency Group, Delphi Digital and Crypto.com Capital backed the launch of the crypto-backed stablecoin and zero-interest borrowing platform.

TVL and the number of active addresses dropped

Total value locked is no longer the primary metric that reflects strong fundamentals, meaning a 66% price correction has other factors at play than just a reduced TVL. To confirm whether dApps use has effectively decreased, investors should also analyze the number of active addresses within the ecosystem.

Solana dApps 30-day on-chain data. Source: DappRadar

As shown by DappRadar data on Jan. 28, the number of Solana network addresses interacting with most decentralized applications dropped by 18% to 32%, except for the non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace Magic Eden.

The lesser interest on Solana dApps was also reflected in its futures open interest, which peaked at $2 billion on Nov. 6, but recently faced a steep correction.

Solana futures aggregate open interest. Source: Coinglass

The above chart shows how derivatives traders' interest in Solana plunged 75% in less than 3 months. That is especially concerning because a smaller number of futures contracts might reduce the activity of arbitrage desks and market makers. For example, it is common for participants to self-limit their exposure to 20% of the asset volume or open interest.

Derivatives data could be a consequence, but not the cause

It's probably impossible to pinpoint the correlation and causation between SOL's price drop, the decrease in the network's dApps use, and the fading interest from derivatives traders. However, none of those indicators point to a price recovery anytime soon.

The data above suggests that Solana holders should be less concerned about momentary outages and focus on the ecosystem's use versus competing chains. As long as the ecosystem remains healthy, investors have no reason to lose trust due to temporary network outages.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger

Is the bottom in? Data shows Bitcoin derivatives entering the ‘capitulation’ zone

A key risk indicator for BTC options hit its highest level in six months, possibly signaling that $32,930 was the bottom.

Analysts love to issue price predictions and it seems that nine out of 10 times they are wrong. For example, how many times did analysts say "we will never see Bitcoin back at X price again," only to see it plunge well below that level a few months later? 

It doesn't matter how experienced a person is or how connected in the industry. Bitcoin's (BTC) 55% volatility must be taken seriously and the impact this has on altcoins is usually stronger during capitulation-like movements.

For those unfamiliar with the case, on Dec. 7, Zhu Su's Three Arrows Capital acquired $676.4 million worth of Ether (ETH) after its price collapsed 20% over 48 hours. Zhu went as far as saying that he would continue to buy "any panic dump," despite acknowledging that Ethereum fees were unsuitable for most users.

To understand whether there is still an appetite for bearish bets and how pro traders are positioned, let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s futures and options market data.

Futures traders are unwilling to short

The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. A 5% to 15% annualized premium is expected in healthy markets and this price gap is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.

On the other hand, a red alert emerges whenever this indicator fades or turns negative, a scenario known as "backwardation."

Bitcoin 3-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Notice how the indicator held the 5% threshold despite the 52% price correction in 75 days. Had pro traders effectively entered bearish positions, the basis rate would have flipped closer to zero or even negative. Thus, data shows a lack of appetite for short positions during this current corrective phase.

Options traders are still in the "fear" zone

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders should also analyze the options markets. The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. The metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.

The opposite holds when greed is prevalent, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area.

Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch

The 25% skew indicator flipped to the "fear" area as it moved above 10% on Jan. 21. That 17% peak level was last seen in early July 2021, and curiously, Bitcoin was trading at $34,000 back then.

This indicator might be interpreted as bearish when considering that arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for downside protection. Still, this metric is backward-looking and usually predicts market bottoms. For example, just two weeks after the skew indicator peaked at 17% on July 5, Bitcoin price bottomed at $29,300.

Correlation with traditional markets is not so relevant

It is worth noting that Bitcoin has been on a downtrend for the past 75 days, and this is before the Federal Reserve's tightening discourse on Dec. 15. Moreover, the increased correlation with traditional markets does not explain why the S&P 500 index peaked on Jan. 4, while Bitcoin was already down 33% from the $69,000 all-time high.

Considering the lack of bears' appetite to short BTC below $40,000 and options traders finally capitulating, Bitcoin shows little room for the downside.

Furthermore, Bitcoin futures liquidation over the past week totalled $2.35 billion, which significantly reduced buyers' leverage. Of course, there are no guarantees that $32,930 was the final bottom, but short sellers will likely wait for a bounce before entering bearish positions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ripple, Archax debut first tokenized money market fund on XRP Ledger