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Bitcoin price continues to drop, but how are pro BTC traders positioned?

Data shows top traders futures’ Bitcoin long-to-short at the lowest level in 30 days, but what does this mean for BTC's short-term price action.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable 15.7% price surge in the first six days of December. This surge has been heavily influenced by the anticipation of an imminent approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. Senior Bloomberg ETF analysts have expressed a 90% probability for approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is expected before Jan. 10.

However, Bitcoin’s recent price surge may not be as straightforward as it seems. Analysts have failed to consider the multiple rejections at $37,500 and $38,500 during the second half of November. These rejections have left professional traders, including market makers, questioning the market’s strength, particularly from the perspective of derivatives metrics.

Bitcoin’s 7.6% rally to $37,965 on Nov. 15 resulted in disappointment as the movement fully retracted the following day. Similarly, between Nov. 20 and Nov. 21, Bitcoin's price declined by 5.3% after the $37,500 resistance proved more formidable than anticipated.

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Bitcoin the ‘main beneficiary’ as crypto funds notch 10-week streak

Nearly $1.8 billion flowed into crypto investment products over the last 10 weeks, which hasn’t been seen since Bitcoin futures were launched in October 2021.

Bitcoin (BTC)-related investment products have become the “main beneficiary” of recent investor interest in crypto, amid growing anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States.

A total of $1.76 billion of investors’ funds have flowed into crypto products over a 10-week period, making up for the largest inflows over such a period since October 2021 — when Bitcoin futures launched, according to a Dec.

CoinShares’ weekly reports over the past 10 weeks shows at least $1.44 billion of inflows went to Bitcoin investment products over the period, as the price of Bitcoin has gained from $26,600 to $37,700 on Dec.

Meanwhile, the latest week ending Dec. Bitcoin (BTC) investment products were the “main beneficiary,” said Butterfill, recording $132.8 million of inflows over the past week, while Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) products tallied $30.8 million and 4.3 million, respectively.

Digital asset flows (in millions) week by week in 2023. Source: CoinShares

Related: Bitcoin prices should ‘logically’ correct in January, but crypto’s a ‘wild card’

The inflows come as spot Bitcoin ETF applications are inching closer toward potential approval in the U.S.

Some Bitcoin futures-based products could be reaping benefits of the recent excitement over approvals, said James Edwards, cryptocurrency analyst at fintech firm Finder in a previous interview with Cointelegraph.

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CME Bitcoin futures show investors betting on $40K BTC price

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium jumped to 34% on Nov. 28, leading analysts to speculate about an imminent spot BTC ETF approval.

The demand for institutional investors for Bitcoin (BTC) became evident on Nov. 10 as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures flipped Binance's BTC futures markets in terms of size. According to BTC derivatives metrics, those investors are showing strong confidence in Bitcoin's potential to break above the $40,000 mark in the short term.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass

CME's current Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $4.35 billion, the highest since November 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000–a clear indication of heightened interest, but is it enough to justify further price gains?

CME's remarkable growth and the spot Bitcoin ETF speculation

The impressive 125% surge in CME's BTC futures open interest from $1.93 billion in mid-October is undoubtedly tied to the anticipation of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, it's important to note that there's no direct correlation between this movement and the actions of market makers or issuers. Cryptocurrency analyst JJcycles raised this hypothesis in a Nov. 26 social media post.

To avoid the high costs associated with futures contracts, institutional investors have various options. For instance, they could opt for CME Bitcoin options, which require less capital and offer similar leveraged long exposure. Additionally, regulated ETF and exchange-traded notes (ETN) trading in regions like Canada, Brazil, and Europe provide alternatives.

It seems somewhat naive to believe that the world’s largest asset managers would take risky gambles using derivatives contracts on a decision that depends on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) and is not expected until mid-January. Yet, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest is hard evidence that institutional investors are setting their sight in the cryptocurrency.

It might seem naive to think that the world's largest asset managers would take significant risks with derivatives contracts on a decision dependent on the SEC, expected only in mid-January. However, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest underscores the increasing interest of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

CME's Bitcoin futures signaled extreme optimism on Nov. 28

While CME's Bitcoin futures activity has been steadily rising, the most noteworthy development has been the spike in the contracts' annualized premium (basis rate). In neutral markets, monthly futures contracts typically trade with a 5% to 10% basis rate to account for longer settlement times. This situation, known as contango, is not unique to cryptocurrency derivatives.

On Nov. 28, the annualized premium for CME Bitcoin futures surged from 15% to 34%, eventually stabilizing at 23% by day's end. A basis rate exceeding 20% indicates substantial optimism, suggesting that buyers were willing to pay a substantial premium to establish leveraged long positions. Currently, the metric stands at 14%, indicating that whatever caused the unusual movement is no longer a factor.

It's worth noting that during that 8-hour period on Nov. 28, Bitcoin's price rose from $37,100 to $38,200. However, it's challenging to determine whether this surge was driven by the spot market or futures contracts, as arbitrage between the two occurs in milliseconds. Instead of fixating on intraday price movements, traders should look to BTC option markets data for confirmation of heightened interest from institutional investors.

Related: Why is the crypto market down today?

If traders anticipate a decline in Bitcoin's price, a delta skew metric above 7% is expected, whereas periods of excitement typically result in a -7% skew.

Deribit 30-day BTC options skew. Source: Laevitas.ch

Over the past month, the 30-day BTC options 25% delta skew has consistently remained below the -7% threshold, standing near -10% on Nov. 28. This data supports the bullish sentiment among institutional investors using CME Bitcoin futures, casting doubts on the theory of whales accumulating assets ahead of a potential spot ETF approval. In essence, derivatives metrics do not indicate excessive short-term optimism.

If whales and market makers were genuinely 90% certain of SEC approval, in line with the expectations of Bloomberg’s ETF analysts, the BTC options delta skew would likely be much lower.

Nonetheless, with Bitcoin's price trading near $38,000, it appears that bulls will continue to challenge resistance levels as long as the hope for a spot ETF approval remains a driving force.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Futures will be the best crypto game in town even after a Bitcoin spot ETF

A spot Bitcoin ETF will bring fresh money to the market, but it will not change a fundamental reality: Bitcoin liquidity is declining.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has long been the home of crypto for traditional finance investors, and this is unlikely to change — even with the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Activity on the CME has expanded significantly over the past 12 months. The CME now sees more Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading than the world’s biggest crypto exchange, Binance. Open BTC interest on the CME now makes up 24.7% of the entire market, making it the top Bitcoin futures trading venue in the world 

While some of this activity is almost certainly linked to anticipation of approval for a spot ETF, the launch of one or more will not lead to a reduction of activity in the futures market. In fact, futures trading is likely to expand rather than contract when the SEC finally gives BlackRock et. al. the green light.

Related: History tells us we’re in for a strong bull market with a hard landing

There is no doubt that a spot ETF will bring large flows of institutional money into the sector. However, it will not change the basic fundamentals of Bitcoin liquidity. As we know, the supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million. That means the futures market is the only place where real trade action can happen.

The CME has been successfully used by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and others to trade cryptocurrency instruments for years, and they have been using futures to do so. Futures remain the instrument of choice because liquidity is the main issue in the spot market. These huge institutional investors could buy bitcoin at any time, but liquidity remains the chief drawback - not the lack of a spot ETF.

Bitcoin options open interest, June 2020-November 2023. Source: CoinGlass

Institutional investors that use the CME are also highly sophisticated. As such, any fund manager that takes a position in BlackRock’s spot ETF, for example, will want to hedge that position using futures on the CME. Accordingly, we can expect activity on the CME to grow almost in lockstep with the growth in spot ETFs.

Futures are also — as we know — a speculative instrument, and there is perhaps no market that is more speculative than cryptocurrency. As the asset class gains more legitimacy and credibility with the approval of a spot ETF, we will see more investors interested in all corners of digital asset trading.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs: A $600B tipping point for crypto

Adventurous day traders who may have stuck to the foreign-exchange market in the past will likely start to venture into Bitcoin and other crypto instruments. And they will exercise this interest through the CME. Indeed, I suspect we will see increasing interest in perpetual swaps and other types of derivative instruments in the sector next year.

Crypto futures also benefit from clearer and more consistent regulation, which is another major factor here. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) looks after futures, nobody has yet fully decided who looks after the crypto spot market from a regulatory perspective, and this remains a problem. Applications for these Bitcoin spot ETFs are currently sitting on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s desk, but as has become abundantly clear, Chairman Gary Gensler is a big fan of ambiguity.

Clear regulation is leading to obvious success in cryptocurrency futures, while the spot market is being hindered by regulatory opacity. And so, while the approval of an ETF is just a matter of time at this stage, we still don’t know how much time. While we are waiting, the futures market remains an extremely enticing trading ground for institutional investors.

Lucas Kiely is the chief investment officer for Yield App, where he oversees investment portfolio allocations and leads the expansion of a diversified investment product range. He was previously the chief investment officer at Diginex Asset Management, and a senior trader and managing director at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong, where he managed QIS and Structured Derivatives trading. He was also the head of exotic derivatives at UBS in Australia.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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US SEC Delays Decisions on Multiple Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETF Applications

US SEC Delays Decisions on Multiple Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETF Applications

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is delaying its decisions on several Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications until next year. In new filings, the regulatory agency says that it will be delaying its decisions on applications filed by asset management firm Hashdex to create a mixed spot and futures Ethereum […]

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Crypto Biz: Uniswap’s Android wallet app, Cboe to launch BTC, ETH margin futures, and more

Getting regulatory approval has been crucial for companies, particularly in a tight regulatory environment during the crypto winter.

As the final weeks of 2023 approach, it’s fair to say that one of the most dominant trends and drivers of crypto companies’ strategies over the past months can be summed up in a single word: licenses. 

In a tight regulatory environment, getting the green light from regulators has been crucial for companies, particularly during the crypto winter.

Some countries have taken a stand by developing a crypto-friendly environment. For example, the United Arab Emirates continues to attract major crypto companies to its shores, with digital assets exchange Crypto.com recently receiving a Virtual Assets Service Provider (VASP) license in Dubai. The license allows Crypto.com’s local business to offer retail and institutional trading, as well as broker-dealer and credit-related services.

Dubai also granted a similar license for institutional crypto custodian Hex Trust. The crypto firm has offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, Dubai, Italy and France.

Traditional players are also seeking crypto licenses. In Germany, Commerzbank has been granted a crypto custody license, according to a Nov. 15 announcement, allegedly becoming the first “full-service” bank in the country to receive the license.

Also, in this week’s regulatory headlines, Bitget dropped plans to obtain a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license in Hong Kong, citing business and market-related considerations. As a result, the exchange is winding down its local operations in the coming weeks.

Although licenses are essential for crypto firms to operate, they also represent a new step in the growing connection between crypto and governments worldwide.

This week’s Crypto Biz also explores Uniswap’s Android app, Cboe’s move into crypto margin futures trading and Disney’s upcoming nonfungible token (NFT) platform.

Uniswap launches Android wallet app with built-in swap function

Uniswap Labs has publicly released an Android mobile wallet app on the Google Play Store. The new app allows users to make swaps through the decentralized exchange from within the app, eliminating the need for a separate web browser extension, Uniswap Labs vice president of design Callil Capuozzo told Cointelegraph. Uniswap added support for new languages and now supports English, Spanish, Japanese, Portuguese, French and Chinese — both traditional and simplified — and added a setting that allows users to view the value of their crypto in their local currency. The app’s iOS version was released in April.

Uniswap mobile app demo. Source: Uniswap Labs.

Disney launches NFT platform with Dapper Labs

Disney and blockchain firm Dapper Labs have teamed up to create a nonfungible token (NFT) platform. According to an announcement, Disney will tokenize its iconic cartoon characters from the past century onto its upcoming NFT marketplace, Disney Pinnacle. The platform will also include icons from Pixar and heroes and villains from the Star Wars galaxy, uniquely styled as collectible and tradable digital pins. The NFT platform will launch later in 2023 for iOS, Android and on the web.

Cboe to launch BTC, ETH margin futures trading in January with 11 firms supporting

Cboe Digital has announced the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) margin futures trading on Jan. 11, 2024. The regulated crypto-native exchange and clearinghouse will become the first in the United States to offer both spot and leveraged derivatives trading on a single platform, it said in a statement. Eleven firms, including crypto and traditional financial firms, will support the new capability from its launch. They include B2C2, BlockFills, Cumberland DRW and Talos, among others. Cboe Digital provides trading for individuals and institutions. It received approval for margin futures trading from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in June.

Goldman Sachs leads $95 million funding round for blockchain payment firm Fnality

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs and French bank BNP Paribas have reportedly led a new funding round for Fnality, a blockchain-based wholesale payments firm backed by Nomura Group. Fnality has reportedly raised 77.7 million British pounds ($95.09 million) in a second round of funding. Other investors included the global exchange-traded fund firm WisdomTree and Fnality’s existing investor Nomura. The new capital will be used for setting up a round-the-clock global liquidity management network for new digital payment models in wholesale financial markets and emerging tokenized asset markets, Fnality said. Fnality was founded in 2019 as a UBS-led blockchain project aiming to build digital versions of major currencies for wholesale payments and transactions involving digital securities.

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse on the business behind blockchain and crypto, delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

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CME tops Bitcoin futures OI as ‘real facts’ drive institutional uptake

Bitcoin is in line to benefit from a tsunami of institutional capital, says Dan Tapiero, while Ethereum is also due an ETF boost.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a “torrent” of institutional inflows in the run-up to a United States exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval.

That is the perspective of Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings, who has joined the bulls eyeing a sea change in institutional Bitcoin adoption.

Tapiero: Mass capital inflows "about to hit" Bitcoin

As excitement over the potential go-ahead for a U.S. Bitcoin spot price ETF grows, BTC price action has reacted in kind.

As BTC/USD hit 18-month highs, meanwhile, institutional tides are already showing signs of shifting. Open interest on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets — the classic institutional venue for BTC derivatives — passed that of Binance for the first time this week.

For Tapiero, this is a watershed moment.

“Now begins the renewed drumbeat of ‘institutional adoption’ of Bitcoin,” he announced on Nov. 10.

“Real facts driving idea now rather than hope. As CME btc futures open interest surpasses Binance in the #1 spot. Torrent of capital from the traditional world about to hit.”

Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest passed $17 billion on Nov. 9, marking seven-month highs. The tally at the time of writing is a shade lower at $15.5 billion, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Bitcoin exchange futures open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The optimism over the ETF approval, slated for early 2024 but which some argue could come as soon as this month, is widely shared.

In its latest market update on Nov. 10, trading firm QCP Capital further highlighted a potential spot ETF for Ether (ETH) as a crypto market boost in the making.

“While we expect the approval for a spot BTC ETF to be delayed till Jan 2024, a new narrative surrounding a spot ETH ETF should be enough fuel for animal spirits to take hold once again with crypto prices steadily grinding higher towards the end of the year,” it wrote.

Bitcoin daily RSI signals demand "caution"

Within the broader bullish landscape, however, QCP warned that a series of lower highs on Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) values could signal a cooling-off from the highs next.

Related: Bitcoin puzzles traders as BTC price targets $40K despite declining volume

“With the macro picture now turning slightly rosier in the short term as rate pause expectations are firmly in place, we expect crypto prices to stay supported. Dips will be swiftly bought into as FOMO traders try to get onto the train,” it concluded.

“However, caution is still warranted as we are at crucial resistance levels, and BTC is printing a triple bear divergence with the RSI which has been a reliable signal for momentum stalling.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI. Source: TradingView

BTC/USD traded near $36,500 at the time of writing, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. ETH/USD was up over 4% on the day, passing the $2,000 mark.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Investment Giant BlackRock Registers Ethereum Trust in Delaware As ETH Surpasses $2,000

Investment Giant BlackRock Registers Ethereum Trust in Delaware As ETH Surpasses ,000

An investment firm with trillions of dollars worth of assets under its management is registering an Ethereum (ETH) trust in Delaware as the leading altcoin surges over $2,000. According to new filing documents shared on the social media platform X, BlackRock has registered its iShares Ethereum trust in the state of Delaware, a move similar […]

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Bitcoin ‘short squeeze’ sends BTC price to $35.9K as OI stays elevated

More than $15 billion in Bitcoin open interest reaches a predictable conclusion as shorts get squeezed and BTC price action targets $36,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw classic BTC price volatility into the Nov. 7 daily close as a “short squeeze” took the market near $36,000.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin hits "key" short squeeze price

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it reacted amid highly elevated open interest (OI) on exchanges.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the more than $15 billion in OI being apt to spark a fresh round of volatility. Some feared that BTC price downside would result, with the ultimate direction unknown.

In the end, shorts felt the heat as Bitcoin made swift gains to top out at just below $35,900.

Analyzing the situation before the move, popular trader Skew and others predicted the event in advance. Skew argued that momentum would increase quickly should $34,800 return — a sequence of events which then came true.

“Open interest still building up & looking more like shorts have a higher float in the OI build up here. $34,800 ~ key price for a squeeze,” he told X subscribers.

On-chain monitoring resource Material Indiators repeated a previous assertion that $36,000 would stay out of reach this week.

“You can never say, ‘Never’ in this game, but based on the latest Trend Precognition signals, I'd be very surprised to see BTC move above $36k before the Weekly candle close,” part of a post-move X post read, referring to one of its proprietary trading indicators.

BTC/USDT order book data for Binance as of Nov. 7. Source: Material Indicators/X

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile eyed what he described as “an interesting shift” in derivatives composition.

Traders on largest exchange Binance were positioning themselves bearish compared to exchange Bybit, he noted, but a “long squeeze” was far from certain.

“Bybit perpetuals have consistently traded higher than Binance. There's been a clear long interest on Bybit while Binance has been more short orientated during this range,” he summarized.

An accompanying chart compared the two exchanges’ BTC/USDT perpetual swap pairs, showing Binance trading lower after the short squeeze.

“Will be very interesting to see how this resolves,” he concluded.

“One thing is clear and that's that Bybit traders are more bullish than Binance traders.”
Binance vs. Bybit Bitcoin perpetual swaps chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Major BTC futures OI flush still to appear

Financial commentator Tedtalksmacro showed the impact of the squeeze on Binance, where short open interest disappeared.

Related: Inordinately high — Bitcoin Ordinals send BTC transaction fees to new 5-month peak

BTC/USD traded at $35,300 at the time of writing on Nov. 8, with OI still beyond $15 billion, per data from on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Hong Kong regulator issues tokenized investments requirements amid demand

The intent behind the tokenization of SFC-authorized investment products is tied to the rising market demand and the government’s willingness to facilitate market development.

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) of Hong Kong laid down the business requirements for offering tokenized securities and other investment products in a circular released Nov. 2.

The market demand in Hong Kong for tokenized investment products combined with the various benefits of blockchain technology became one of the key drivers for the SFC to consider issuing public guidelines on tokenizing the securities and futures market.

The circular broadly details 12 points, emphasizing four aspects — tokenization arrangement, disclosure, intermediaries and staff competence — for eligibility in issuing tokenized securities-related activities.

The intent behind the tokenization of SFC-authorized investment products is tied to the rising market demand and the government’s willingness to facilitate market development. Considering that the underlying product can meet all the applicable product authorization requirements and the additional safeguards to address the associated risks, the SFC stated:

“By adopting a see-through approach, the SFC is of the view that it is appropriate to allow primary dealing of tokenized SFC-authorised investment products.”

Providers are expected to take full responsibility for their tokenized products and ensure effective record-keeping, large risk appetite and demonstrate operational soundness, among other factors. The SFC further clarified:

“Product Providers should not use public-permissionless blockchain networks without additional and proper controls.”

Regarding disclosure requirements, providers need to clearly disclose whether settlements happen off-chain or on-chain and prove the ownership of tokens at all times. Lastly, the SFC will also require providers to “have at least one competent staff with relevant experience and expertise to operate and/or supervise the tokenization arrangement and to manage the new risks relating to ownership and technology appropriately.”

Related: HSBC and Ant Group test tokenized deposits under HKMA sandbox

Despite federal efforts to tokenize investment products, the interest in crypto for Hong Kong locals witnessed a significant decline.

A survey conducted by The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology’s business school revealed that the alleged JPEX’s $166-million scandal negatively impacted the investor’s willingness to invest in crypto.

Out of the 5,700 respondents, 41% of respondents would prefer not to hold virtual assets.

Magazine: Slumdog billionaire 2: ‘Top 10… brings no satisfaction’ says Polygon’s Sandeep Nailwal

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