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Public miners increased Bitcoin production, hash rate in January

Core Scientific, Riot, and CleanSpark led the way in increasing Bitcoin production in January helped by better weather conditions and stable electricity prices.

The first production update of 2023 from publicly listed Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies shows a steady increase in hash rate and a surge in BTC production compared to the previous month, according to a new analysis from Hashrate Index. 

The majority of public miners increased their bitcoin production in January, with CleanSpark boosting it by 50%, reaching a record monthly production of 697 Bitcoins. Leading the BTC production, Core Scientific reached 1,527 coins mined in January, followed by Riot, the second-biggest producer, mining 740 Bitcoins in the month.

Marathon and Cipher have seen significant increases in Bitcoin production, reaching 687 and 343 Bitcoins generated, respectively, compared to 475 and 225 in December.

Public Miners: Monthly Bitcoin Production. Source: Hashrate Index and Luxor

According to Bitcoin mining analyst Jaran Mellerud, better weather conditions in January and stable electricity prices helped miners boost production."In December, a winter storm swept the North American continent and led to surging electricity prices that periodically forced many of these companies to curtail operations. With the weather more benevolent in January, electricity prices stabilized, and miners were able to achieve a higher up-time."

Hash rate increased for most public miners in January, but at a slower pace than expected. The exception is the Texas-based Cipher that boosted its hash rate by more than 50%, with a 4.3 EH/s. "Cipher has been building hard during this bear market, and I expect the company to reach its hashrate goal of 6 EH/s of self-mining capacity by the end of Q1 2023," noted Mellerud.

CleanSpark also grew its hash rate to 6.6 EH/s from 6.2 EH/s in December, following a series of acquisitions in late 2022. Hive also recorded growth in January, with its hash rate increasing by nearly 30%, from 2.1 to 2.7 EH/s. "The company keeps replacing its GPU fleet with ASICs, primarily with its in-house designed Buzzminers," commented on Hive performance.

Public Miners: Self-Mining Hashrate. Source: Hashrate Index and Luxor

Core Scientific continued growing its hash rate, reaching 17 EH/s in January from 15.7 in December. The figures, however, are expected to be impacted by the company's bankruptcy proceedings, which include a deal with the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) to pay off an outstanding debt of $38.6 million by handing over more than 27,000 mining machines used as collateral - representing 18% of Core Scientific rigs.

Core Scientific filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Dec. 21, seeking to reorganize its debts after months of financial distress due to increased electricity costs and low Bitcoin prices.

Mellerud also pointed out that "these companies have, on several occasions, extended the timeline of their lofty hashrate expansion goals. Most of them have plans to drastically increase their operating hashrate by the end of Q2 this year. At the current rate, most of them will likely have to push their expansion plans further into the future."

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Bitcoin price is up, but BTC mining stocks could remain vulnerable throughout 2023

Bitcoin miners have been under duress for more than a year and even with BTC price trading at $24,000, BTC mining stocks could still face challenges throughout 2023.

Bitcoin mining stocks usually follow BTC’s price because it directly influences the company's earnings. These stocks were beaten down heavily in the last quarter of 2022, especially in the month of December. The downturn after FTX's collapse worsened with the bankruptcy filings of the largest U.S.-based Bitcoin mining company, Core Scientific.

During this time, other mining stocks, like Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) in the chart below, exhibited a weak correlation with Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that December’s downturn was probably overblown.

MARA/USD price chart with MARA-BTC Correlation Coefficient index. Source: TradingView

The negative trend reversed at the start of 2023 as most mining stocks posted impressive gains. The Hashrate Index mining stock index, which tracks the average price of publicly listed mining and hardware manufacturing companies, increased by 62.5% year-to-date. The positive price spike also restored the strong correlation between BTC price and mining stocks.

However, the mining industry remains under stress, with low-profit levels expected for prolonged periods. Since Q2 2022, mining companies have funded operations selling BTC from reserves, selling newly mined BTC, raising debt and issuing new shares. Unless Bitcoin’s price consolidates above $25,000, the industry will likely witness a few takeover attempts or further treasury sales to pay off debt.

Some mining companies are operating at a loss

Currently, the top mining companies' price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is negative, suggesting that they're operating at a net loss, making their stock prices vulnerable to steep downturns.

Riot Blockchain, Bitfarms Ltd, Hive Blockchain Technologies, Cleanspark Inc, Marathon Digital Holdings and Hut 8 Mining are the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies with over 1% of the global hashrate share. The top 15 public mining companies have a combined share of around 19%.

Market share of Bitcoin mining companies by hashrate. Source: TheMinerMag

Notably, the PE ratio of most companies in the industry is between 0 and 2, except for Marathon, Hive and Hut 8. This raises alarms that these companies could be overvalued at their current valuations.

Price-to-earning ratio of top mining companies Source: CompaniesMarketCap.com

A net loss position is no reason to reject a stock because markets are usually forward-looking. If one is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, the mining stocks are obvious choices. However, these companies must survive through the bear market before bearing the fruits of the next bull run. 

Shareholders suffered losses due to bad debt and dilution

Overleveraged or indebted firms, that have to meet their interest obligations, are particularly stressed and vulnerable to insolvency.

Marathon, Greenidge and Stronghold have over $200,000 in debt per unit of Bitcoin mining, with Marathon’s debt peaking at $1.1 million per mined BTC. Marathon collateralized its loans with Bitcoin in its treasury. And the firm now holds 10,055 BTC worth around $235 million.

By the end of October 2022, Marathon took $100 million in loans, which risks getting liquidated if Bitcoin’s price falls below the loan threshold value. For instance, if the loan threshold is 150%, the company will be forced to sell some of its BTC to clear the loans if Bitcoin price drops below $15,000.

Debt per BTC produced by mining companies. Source: TheMinerMag

In this regard, it is encouraging to see that Hive, Hut8 and Riot are mostly debt-free and functioning essentially on equity capital. This reduces the pressure of paying interest rates on the debt and provides flexibility in raising funds or expanding by absorbing some of the marketshare left by now bankrupt mining operations

However, there’s another way to raise funds. Instead of raising debt, miners can dilute their shares. The companies raise investment from public market investors in exchange for additional stock. This reduces the ownership ratio of shareholders. Hut 8 mining and Riot had diluted north of 40% of their shares by Q2 2022. Hut 8 diluted around 15% of shares again in the third quarter of the same year.

Share dilution of public mining companies by Q2 2022. Source: Hashrate Index

The need to raise money has exposed these indebted companies to liquidation risks, while excess dilutions have also significantly reduced the value of investor holdings.

Related: Bitcoin miners’ worst days may have passed, but a few key hurdles remain

Mining company mandates on treasury holdings

While mining companies are struggling with profitability, they are determined to conserve their Bitcoin treasury levels. Despite suffering losses since Q2 2022, Marathon was able to retain its treasury holding levels.

Marathon’s Bitcoin Treasury holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries!Net

At the same time, Hut 8 mining uses a more aggressive policy in selling its mined BTC. This has led to a strong increase in its holdings since mid-2022. 

8Hut’s Treasury has increased since July 2021. Source: BitcoinTreasuries!Net

Whereas, others like Riot and Hive have resorted to using their BTC treasury to cover operational and expansion costs. Hive's holdings have reduced significantly since the third quarter of 2022, from 4,032 BTC to 2,348 BTC. Hive is relying on the expansion of its miner fleet and cost reductions to sustain itself.

Clearly, Bitcoin mining companies remain vulnerable to BTC price, debt liquidations and shareholder losses due to excess dilution. According to on-chain analyst and Crypto Quant founder Ki Young Ju, 2023 will see entities taking over entire mining companies with a chance to buy them at a discount.

While it won't affect Bitcoin price much, mining stocks are still exposed to the threat of considerable losses.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Bitcoin mining revenue jumps up 50% to $23M in one month

As Bitcoin remains well-positioned for a steady recovery, the mining industry witnessed a 50% growth in revenue in terms of US dollars.

As Bitcoin (BTC) shows a minor bull run, the connected sub-ecosystems’ year-long struggle for survival has started to pay off. For starters, the Bitcoin mining community experienced a 50% increase in revenue — through mining rewards and transaction fees — in the first month of 2023.

On Dec. 28, 2022, Bitcoin mining revenue dipped to $13.6 million for the first time since October 2020. This, coupled with rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, imposed tremendous financial pressure on the companies running mining operations – forcing a few to shut shop.

As Bitcoin remains well-positioned for a steady recovery, the mining industry witnessed a 50% growth in revenue in terms of US dollars, as shown below.

Bitcoin mining revenue increased by 50% in January 2023. Source: Blockchain.com

Bitcoin mining revenue jumped from $15.3 million on Jan. 1 to nearly $23 million in the span of 30 days.

As more miners join to power and secure the decentralized Bitcoin network, the hash rate continues to attain new all-time highs. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin hash rate stood at around the 300 exahashes per second (EH/s) mark.

Related: Bitcoin stays out of fear for 11 straight days as price tips near 24K

One of the biggest criticism of Bitcoin remains the high energy requirement for running the proof-of-work consensus mechanism. In October 2022, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin witnessed a 41% increase in energy consumption year-on-year (YoY).

However, a drive for sourcing greener energy to power Bitcoin mining facilities aims to solve the predicament. Most recently, a mining company tapped into a source of stranded energy in Malawi, a landlocked country in southeastern Africa.

As Cointelegraph reported, the project — undertaken by Gridless — uses 50 kilowatts (kW) of stranded energy to test out as a new Bitcoin mining site.

Speaking about the overall impact of the initiative, Erik Hersman, CEO and co-founder of Gridless stated, “The power developer had built these powerhouses a few years ago, but they weren’t able to expand to more families because they’re barely profitable and couldn’t afford to buy more meters to connect more families. So, our deal allowed for them to immediately buy 200 more meters to connect more families.”

In addition, the environmental footprint of the Bitcoin mining facility is low as it runs purely off a river-based hydro powe.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Bitcoin hash rate taps new milestone with miner hodling at 1-year low

Data shows that Bitcoin miners’ BTC reserves are at their lowest since December 2021, despite a dramatic hash rate renaissance.

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing new records in network activity as volatility sends BTC price action to fresh five-month highs.

Data from resources including MiningPoolStats confirms that Bitcoin’s hash rate hit new all-time highs on Jan. 26.

Hash rate passes 300 EH/s threshold

In another example of Bitcoin’s blitz recovery from the pits of post-FTX woes, network hashing power is now bigger than ever.

Hash rate, which is an expression of the processing power dedicated to the network by miners, is currently at 321 exahashes-per-second (EH/s), according to MiningPoolStats raw data.

Bitcoin hash rate raw data chart (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStats

Despite being only an estimate and impossible to measure entirely accurately, the latest readings are quite the feat, having never crossed the 300 EH/s level before.

Mining firm Braiins likewise confirmed the numbers in its live reporting feed.

Other trackers from BTC.com and Blockchain.com have slightly lower estimates, both being around 275 EH/s on the day. The latter shows hash rate hitting an all-time high of 276.8 EH/s on Jan. 20.

Bitcoin hash rate chart (screenshot). Source: Blockchain

“Your wealth is more secure than ever!” popular commentator BTC Archive wrote in part of a Twitter response to the data, indicative of improving sentiment across the Bitcoin space.

Hash rate is a key component of Bitcoin security and significant drawdowns result in network difficulty rising to entice more miners to participate.

Network difficulty is also set to reach levels never seen before this week in a nod to fierce competition in the mining sector.

According to data from BTC.com, the next automated readjustment will send difficulty an estimated 2.75% higher to 38.62 trillion.

The previous readjustment delivered a 10.26% increase, Bitcoin’s largest since October 2022 and only the second double-digit hike since mid-2021.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Miners get chance to balance books

Analyzing the climate, CoinLupin, a contributor at on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, warned that miners are still selling their BTC reserves, possibly to shore up capital in the event of a market reversal.

Related: Bitcoin faces ‘considerable danger’ from Fed in 2023 — Lyn Alden

“Now they have improved profitability for the first time in a while, and mining costs are lower than Bitcoin prices. Normally, more active mining and holding could occur, but now they seem to see it as an opportunity to secure cash,” he wrote in a blog post, describing reserves as “declining at a rapid” pace.

“One day price adjustment could happen in the section where they get enough cash and start collecting Bitcoin again. They constantly reduce their Bitcoin holdings during the rise.”

CryptoQuant’s miner position index, which measures BTC outflows to exchanges from miner wallets relative to their one-year moving average, has captured several withdrawal spikes since Jan. 14.

Bitcoin miner position index chart. Source: CryptoQuant

At 1,837,138 BTC, miners’ reserves currently stand at their lowest since December 2021.

Bitcoin miner reserve chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

BTC metrics exit capitulation — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin retains higher levels after gaining 40% or more this month, but concerns of a BTC price correction are never far away.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of January in fine form after sealing its highest weekly close in five months. 

Despite opposition, the largest cryptocurrency is holding on to its newfound strength and continues to surprise market participants.

This is no mean feat — market sentiment has plenty to spook it and initiate a rethink among investors. Macro conditions remain uncertain, while within Bitcoin, research has highlighted whales on exchanges potentially moving prices artificially with huge amounts of liquidity.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has seen its most impressive gains percentage-wise in over a year, and hopes remain that the good times will endure. What could that depend on?

Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the major factors to keep in mind as a January unlike any other draws to a close.

Bitcoin analysts bank on "continuation" to come

It is no secret that Bitcoin is facing its fair share of suspicion as it delivers 40% gains over just three weekly candles.

Demands for a major correction and continuation of the bear market have long been public, and some of the more conservative trading voices insist that macro lows are not yet in.

That inflection point has still not materialized, however. At its latest weekly candle close, BTC/USD traded at just above $22,700, marking its best performance since last summer.

Thereafter, the pair consolidated into the start of Monday, likewise retaining ground recovered over the week.

“Lows swept, juicy highs above, would be the perfect time to put in a nice running flat before continuation up,” trader Credible Crypto summarized about the short-term outlook.

Credible Crypto’s is characteristic of some of the more bullish takes on the market, less concerned by the idea that the whole move may simply be a relief rally within a broader bearish structure.

“Total market capitalization broke through the 200-Day EMA,” a similarly optimistic Michaël van de Poppe, Cointelegraph contributor and CEO of trading firm Eight, added at the weekend, referring to exponential moving averages.

“Good signs for crypto, as continuation seems likely. In between continuation to $25K or a correction to $19.5K. To continue -> hold above 200-Day EMA and break resistance. 200-Day EMA potential entry point.”

The 200-day EMA stood at $21,056 at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200EMA. Source: TradingView

More conservative appraisals of the situation focused among other things on exchange order book composition.

In its latest analysis, Material Indicators noted BTC price action rising and falling as major area of bid liquidity came and went on Binance.

“The BTC buy wall at 20,200 has been moved to push price up to test resistance on the trend line,” part of commentary stated.

“I don't trust this entity at $22k any more than I did at $20k, but happy to trade in their wake.”
BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

A further post doubled down on a previous assertion that price action was being “choreographed” and giving no attention to surrounding industry news, notably the bankruptcy of crypto lending firm, Genesis Trading.

“Fundamentally nothing has changed, yet BTC is testing macro level resistance. Meanwhile, some of the largest institutions in crypto are headed for bankruptcy. Probably nothing,” Material Indicators tweeted.

Macro optimism creeps back in

Macro analysis shows a similar split among those involved in crypto markets themselves.

With the United States Federal Reserve’s latest decision on interest rate hikes due Feb. 1, sources are reading into falling inflation in increasingly diverging ways.

Meanwhile, the 2023 World Economic Forum, despite some crypto opposition, failed to dent sentiment significantly.

For Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings, it is simply a question of how bullishly risk assets will respond to changing tides at the Fed as it loosens monetary policy in future.

“How will Fed respond when inflation goes below 0? A long good year coming for BTC ETH gold,” he told Twitter followers.

“USD bear mkt and 10yrs below 3% to support main trends. Digital asset ecosystem (DAE) to thrive as clearing prices reached without government support. Free markets work!”

That position is conspicuously unlike some other popular takes, in particular last week’s predictions from ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes. The Fed pivot on rates, he warned, will come with dire losses for crypto before the recovery sets in.

Credible Crypto, meanwhile, also sees no reason not to be bullish on risk assets now.

“Talks of rate hikes slowing to 25 basis points as inflation decreases for 6 consecutive months, meanwhile the $SPX has made a picture perfect retest of prior ATH and looks ready to head back up. All that panic and fear, for what?” he queried on Jan. 23.

S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ Twitter

The last week of the month meanwhile contains various potential short-term market triggers in the form of U.S. macro data releases.

These include GDP growth on Jan. 26 and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Jan. 27.

DXY swoons as support nowhere to be seen

On a related macro note, special attention arguably deserves to be given to the fate of the U.S. dollar this week.

As crypto markets rally, dollar strength is crashing, swiftly losing ground won during its surge to twenty-year highs last year.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is typically inversely correlated to risk asset performance, and Bitcoin has shown itself to be particularly sensitive to major moves.

Currently, DXY is trading at around 101.7, having tested 101.5 — more than six-month lows — for a second time this week. After losing it as support at the end of November, the index’s 200-day moving average has acted as resistance since.

“Don’t need much else to tell you what happens next The biggest short squeeze markets have ever seen is upon us,” entrepreneur and crypto commentator “Coosh” Alemzadeh thus declared alongside a chart comparing DXY to Bitcoin and Nasdaq performance at the weekend.

The dollar’s decline versus Chinese bonds also caught the attention of popular analyst TechDev, who showed that impulse moves on Bitcoin top out within a year of a key level being breeched on Chinese ten-year bonds.

“New multi-month lows for the U.S. Dollar Index DXY, after getting rejected perfectly on the horizontal support/resistance range & the 200 day moving average cloud,” Caleb Franzen, Senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added.

“That rejection was the moment I realized & accepted that momentum was biased to the downside.”
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart with 200MA. Source: TradingView

On-chain metrics emerge from the abyss

Bitcoin really is in the midst of a renaissance, on-chain data is concluding.

Compiled by analytics firm Glassnode, multiple classic indicators of Bitcoin market health are now exiting their capitulation zones.

These include — perhaps unsurprisingly given the 40% upside move this month — the amount of the BTC supply held at a profit and loss.

Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) is now out of its lowest boundary and heading towards better profitability, despite notably not dipping as low as during the pits of prior bear markets.

Bitcoin net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) chart. Source: Glassnode

As Glassnode confirms, this applies equality to short-term holder (STH) and long-term holder (LTH) NUPL. The two classes of Bitcoin investor are described as entities holding coins for less than or more than 155 days, respectively.

Similarly bullish is Bitcoin’s market value to realized value Z-score (MVRV-Z), which measures “the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation of all historical market cap data, i.e. (market cap – realized cap) / std(market cap),” or “when Bitcoin is over/undervalued relative to its ‘fair value.’” as Glassnode explains.

MVRV-Z has now left its green “undervalued” zone for the first time since a brief spike in early November, also marking its first such move since the FTX debacle.

“MVRV Z-Score just dragged itself out of the green accumulation zone,” Philip Swift, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, confirmed last week.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score chart. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin mining hash rate, difficulty at all-time highs

It is already time for another Bitcoin network difficulty adjustment, and this week should preserve existing all-time highs.

Related: Bitcoin due new 'big rally' as RSI copies 2018 bear market recovery

According to estimates from BTC.com, difficulty will edge up by approximately 0.5% in six days’ time.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

This will add an incremental cherry on the cake to a mining sector already in the midst of major flux. Despite recent low prices, competition among miners has surged this month, adding pressure to those unable to keep costs to a minimum.

Glassnode additionally shows that versus thirty days ago, miners on aggregate hold less BTC. It was at that time that price gains began to materialize.

Bitcoin 30-day miner net position change chart. Source: Glassnode

Raw data from MiningPoolStats meanwhile puts Bitcoin’s hash rate — an estimate of processing power dedicated to mining — also at new all-time highs.

Bitcoin hash rate raw data chart (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStats

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

US will see new ‘inflation spike’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin starts 2023 with a whimper as volatility stays absent and BTC price tips favor fresh downside to come.

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the first week of 2023 in an uninspiring place as volatility stays away — along with traders.

After failing to budge throughout the Christmas and new year break, BTC price action remains locked in a narrow range.

Having sealed yearly losses of nearly 65% in 2022, Bitcoin has arguably seen a classic bear market year, but for the time being, few are actively predicting a recovery.

The situation is complex for the average hodler, who is watching for macro triggers courtesy of the United States Federal Reserve and economic policy impact on dollar strength.

Prior to Wall Street returning on Jan. 3, Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors at play when it comes to BTC price performance in the coming week and beyond.

Bitcoin traders fear new lows amid flatlining price

Bitcoin hodlers may be wishing for volatility, but so far, BTC price action has remained distinctly comatose, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

It seems nothing — low-volume Christmas trading, the quarterly and yearly candle closes and even macro data prints before that — can shift the status quo.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin volatility even managed to hit new record lows in the run-up to the end of the year, as per the Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL).

Bitcoin historical volatility index (BVOL) 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

Looking ahead, traders are thus conservative as to what lies in store for BTC/USD as signs of a fundamental shift remain wholly absent from market behavior.

“It takes a tiny pump into resistance to turn everyone bullish again. This same bull trap has been happening during the entire 2022, yet people don't learn,” Il Capo of Crypto argued on the day.

“12k is very likely.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Il Capo of Crypto/ Twitter

His comments came alongside a modest shift upward for Bitcoin, which passed $16,700 for the first time in several days.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

They were echoed by popular trader and analyst Pentoshi, who likewise flagged $12,000 as a key support zone for Bitcoin to revisit in terms of volume on higher timeframes.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Pentoshi/ Twitter

Fellow analyst Toni Ghinea meanwhile once again doubled down on a $11,000-$14,000 floor for BTC/USD.

“Expecting all these levels to be reached in 2-3 months,” Twitter commentary confirmed on Jan. 1.

Michael Burry warns inflation will return

With another week to go until the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for December hits, the first days of January are relatively calm when it comes to macro BTC price catalysts.

That does not mean that there is nothing to look out for, however, as Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and non-farm payrolls data is all expected in the coming week.

The trend in the short to mid-term remains one of declining inflation, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, this in turn allowing risk assets room for maneuver.

The Federal Reserve has yet to signal that it will pivot on its interest rate hikes, despite the pace of those hikes already beginning to fall. As soon as those signals come in, sentiment around risk-on should markedly strengthen.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The Fed will release minutes from its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Jan. 4, providing clear guidance on policy going forward.

For “Big Short” investor Michael Burry, however, even that more permissive scenario is not the end of the inflation story.

“Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle,” he warned in a tweet on Jan. 2.

“We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It's not hard.”

The results of Fed policy have been clear to see for 2022 stock market performance, with the S&P 500 for example finishing the year 1,000 points below many of the most popular estimates.

While markets await the first Wall Street trading day of 2023, the U.S. dollar index is already struggling in what could be the year’s first silver lining for crypto assets.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is currently threatening to fall through support unchallenged for over six months, after which the 100 point level reenters.

“Markets: DXY on the verge of breaking down again, 10yr yields reaching resistance, WTI crude rebounded to resistance, gold paused at resistance, stocks treading water,” Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at macro research house Top Down Charts, summarized in part of Twitter comments on the day.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

Difficulty due to drop amid grim hash rate data

In the knee-jerk world of Bitcoin fundamentals, it is business as usual as the year begins.

Bitcoin’s upcoming difficulty adjustment due Jan. 3 will wipe out gains made two weeks prior in a sign that miners remain under pressure over BTC price performance.

After rising 3.27% on Dec. 19, difficulty will drop by an estimated 3.5% this week, as per data from BTC.com, thus failing to seal new all-time highs.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Difficulty data in and of itself provides an interesting insight to Bitcoin’s health “under the hood” — despite concerns over miners’ financial stability, competition for block subsidies remains conspicuously high.

That said, data from late December captured a grim snapshot for the average network participant, with hash rate — an estimate of aggregate processing power dedicated to mining — hitting its lowest levels for the year.

“This is by far the most brutal Bitcoin miner capitulation since 2016 and possibly ever,” Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, commented at the time.

“Hash Ribbons capitulation has captured the lowest Bitcoin hash rate reading of 2022 as miners bankrupt and default under the great pressure of squeezed margins globally.”
Bitcoin hash ribbons annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter

An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s hash ribbons indicator entering another “capitulation” zone, in which miners shut off hash rate en masse. A similar event occurred in July 2022, and another a year prior to that.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s public mining companies also continue to feel the strain, with Core Scientific getting a provisional bankruptcy loan of nearly $40 million from creditors including BlackRock.

BTC supply goes to sleep

As volatility stays absent from Bitcoin for weeks on end, there is understandably little impetus to sell among hodlers.

The latest on-chain data supports that theory, with the BTC supply becoming increasingly dormant as speculators stay away.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the amount of the supply stationary in its wallet for the past five to seven years has hit its highest since January 2018.

BTC supply last active 5-7 years ago chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

That trend has been in place for much of the past year, as those who bought BTC in the last halving cycle see their purchase prices returning.

As the supply ages, the volume of coins moving on a short-term basis is likewise decreasing, hinting at an absence of knee-jerk speculative trading.

The amount of the BTC supply last active between three and six months ago is now at five-year lows, Glassnode confirms. Supply active between three and five years ago is now at one-year lows.

BTC supply last active 3-6 months ago chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

“Supply is getting rare again,” analytics resource Stockmoney Lizards responded to similar dormancy data at the end of last month.

An accompanying chart showed the relationship between dormant supply and macro highs and lows for BTC price action.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/ Twitter

Sentiment in no-man's land

In a similar sign that many market participants simply do not know how to feel about the future of crypto, sentiment is neither here nor there.

Related: ‘Crypto winter’ won't end in 2023 — Bitcoin advocate David Marcus

That is one reading of popular sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which continues to surf territory just above “extreme fear.”

A story already characterizing much of the period after the FTX meltdown, sentiment appears to be confused over how bad the state of crypto really is.

Out of the Index’s five sentiment brackets, only “fear” has endured in recent weeks, with the last trip deeper into “extreme fear” coming in late November.

As Cointelegraph has explained in a dedicated guide, Fear & Greed can offer key insights into market activity based on investor behavior. In 2022, it hit lows of 6/100, a score rarely ever seen in Bitcoin’s lifetime.

“Despite a brutal 2022 for crypto in terms of sentiment, I have never been more excited about the industry long term from a fundamentals perspective,” Daniel Cheung, co-founder of investment firm Syncacy Capital, nonetheless concluded in a Twitter thread on Jan. 1.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Rewind 2022: A crypto roundup of the year and stepping into 2023

While 2022 proved catastrophic for investors across traditional and crypto markets, the crypto ecosystem’s potential has shined through the cracks of inflation and centralized custody of assets.

Stepping into the year 2023, it's time to pause and reflect on the accomplishments and struggles the global crypto community witnessed over the last 365 days. Starting from the very beginning of 2022, no investment strategy could help recover the falling portfolios across traditional and crypto ecosystems. January 2022 inherited a slightly collapsing market, wherein investments made on 2021 all-time high prices resulted in immediate losses. 

For many, especially the new entrants, falling crypto prices were perceived as an end game. But what went widely unnoticed was the community’s resilience and accomplishments against a global recession, orchestrated attacks and scams and an unforgiving bear market.

As a result of falling prices, 2022 also inherited the 2021 hype around nonfungible tokens (NFTs), the Metaverse, iconic all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies.

Economies worldwide suffered massive inflation as the most influential fiat currencies succumbed to the ongoing geopolitical pressures. The fall of investor confidence in traditional markets seeped into crypto and the fall of ecosystems only aided the sour sentiments.

A year full of disruption

Amid poor market performance, the crypto community focused on strengthening its core. This meant releasing blockchain upgrades and introducing faster, cheaper and more secure features and capabilities — all driven by the consensus of the respective communities. As a result, 2022 was a milestone year for leading crypto ecosystems.

Bitcoin received a highly requested improvement for its layer-2 protocol Lightning Network (LN) protocol. The LN got improved privacy and efficiency thanks to a November 2021 upgrade called Taproot. Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade saw various protocol-level implementations for improved privacy and efficiency. It also helped lower the database sizes, an essential factor in slowing down the exploding Bitcoin ledger size.

By May 2022, Bitcoin was already halfway to the next halving, an event that reduces the mining rewards by half, the only way new Bitcoin gets released into supply. The reward for confirming Bitcoin transactions gets slashed by half every 210,00 blocks. The last Bitcoin halving event occurred on May 11, 2020, back when it traded at the $9,200 mark.

The total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million by design. Therefore, a halving event further reduces the amount of Bitcoin that gets released into the market. A resultant scarcity due to the halving event historical worked in favor of Bitcoin price.

Adhering to the expectations of industry experts, Bitcoin rallied for several months to mark its all-time high by Nov 2021 and was able to retain its value well above $15,000 until the end of 2022, confirms data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

Bitcoin price during the last halving event. Source: CoinMarketCap

The Ethereum community welcomed the highly anticipated Merge upgrade, which saw the Ethereum blockchain’s transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. The upgrade's most significant impact was a drastic energy consumption reduction. The wider crypto community counts on this lower energy usage to reignite the interest in Ether-power sub-ecosystems, such as NFTs.

Crypto resilience vs. traditional markets

History proves that two factors play a crucial role in crypto market performance — the price of Bitcoin and investor sentiment. Both factors seemed to lack throughout the year.

Crypto events timeline against market capitalization. Source: CoinGecko

The crypto ecosystem was plagued with a series of attacks, unprecedented sanctions and bankruptcy filings, which multiplied the impact of the global recession on the market. In addition to poor price performance, some of the most prominent scars for 2022 investors include the fall of FTX, 3AC, Voyager, BlockFi and Terraform Labs, wherein investors lost access to all their funds overnight.

Amid this commotion, entrepreneurs once loved by the masses ended up breaking the trust of millions, namely former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and Terra co-founder and CEO Do Kwon.

Despite the added hurdles, the Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem not only survived but also displayed a never-seen-before resilience. Traditional store-of-value investments such as gold and stocks too suffered a similar fate. Between January-December 2022, gold investors realized a net loss of 0.3%.

Major company stocks also performed poorly this year, which includes Apple (-25%), Microsoft (-29%), Google (-38%), Amazon (-49%), Netflix (-51%), Meta (-65%) and Tesla (-65%).

Yearly performance of traditional market goliaths. Source: LinkedIn

Bitcoin started strong with a $47,680 price point in Jan. 2022, but dwindling investor sentiment — driven by year-long rising inflation, energy prices and market uncertainties — managed to bring the prices down by over 60% by December.

Setting the stage for a stronger foundation

Time after time, bear markets have taken the responsibility of weeding out bad actors and offering a chance for promising crypto projects to display their true value to investors beyond the price point.

The noise around price fluctuations could not stop the Bitcoin network from strengthening its core against double-spending attempts, i.e., 51% attacks. Thanks to the widespread mining community, hash rate and network difficulty — two important computational power-based security metrics — reassured Bitcoiners that the blockchain network was well-protected. Throughout the year, the Bitcoin network consistently recorded new hash rate all-time highs and ended the year between the 250-300 Exahashes per second (EH/s) range.

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Other prominent players in the crypto ecosystem also released the system and feature upgrades as they gear up for 2023. For Polygon Technology, an Ethereum-based Web3 infrastructure, it was the launch of zkEVM or zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine, a layer-2 scaling solution aimed at reducing transaction costs and improving scalability. Decentralized finance (DeFi) aggregator 1inch Network launched the Fusion upgrade for delivering cost-efficient, secure and profitable swaps for crypto investors.

El Salvador’s legalization of Bitcoin did not go unnoticed, especially considering that the country’s Bitcoin procurement from 2021 shared the same fate as other crypto investors. Regardless, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele doubled down on this decision as the country announced purchasing BTC on a daily basis from Nov.17.

One of the immediate impacts of this move is a reduction in El Salvador’s average buying price. A planned purchase of Bitcoin dips combined with a subsequent market recovery makes the country well-positioned to offset the unrealized losses.

In countries with high inflation, Bitcoin helped numerous individuals retain their purchasing power.

Expect a return of the hype

While 2023 will not be fortunate enough to witness the upcoming Bitcoin halving, it will play a crucial role in the crypto ecosystem’s comeback. With aggressive blockchain upgrades, updated business strategies and investors’ attentiveness back on the menu, the ecosystem is now gearing up for the next wave of disruption.

For investors, 2023 will be a year of recovery — from losses and mistrust to self-custody and informed investments. “Making it” in crypto is no longer just about becoming an overnight millionaire; it is about creating, supporting and preaching a fresh take on the future of money.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Bitcoin mining pool BTC.com reports $3M cyberattack

BTC.com, the seventh-largest Bitcoin mining pool, said that its client fund services are unaffected by the recent $3 million cyberattack.

Major cryptocurrency mining pool BTC.com has suffered a cyberattack resulting in a significant loss of funds by the company and its customers.

BTC.com experienced a cyberattack on Dec. 3, with attackers stealing around $700,000 in client assets and $2.3 million in the company’s assets, the mining pool’s parent firm BIT Mining Limited officially announced on Dec. 26.

BIT Mining and BTC.com reported the cyberattack to law enforcement authorities in Shenzhen, China. The local authorities subsequently launched an investigation into the incident, starting collecting evidence and requesting assistance from relevant agencies in China. The local coordination has already helped BTC.com recover some of the assets internally, the announcement notes.

“The company will devote considerable efforts to recover the stolen digital assets,” BIT Mining said, adding that it has also deployed technology to “better block and intercept hackers.”

Despite facing the incident, BTC.com continues running its mining pool services to customers, the firm stated:

“BTC.com is currently operating its business as usual, and apart from its digital asset services, its client fund services are unaffected.”

One of the world’s largest cryptocurrency mining pools, BTC.com provides multi-currency mining services for various digital assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and Litecoin (LTC). Apart from mining services, BTC.com also operates a blockchain browser. Its parent company, BIT Mining, is a publicly traded firm listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Related: Bitcoin hashrate recovers after big freeze shuts down miners

BTC.com mining pool is the seventh biggest mining pool worldwide, accounting for 2.5% in total mining pool distribution over the past seven days, with a hashrate of 5.80 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to BTC.com data. BTC.com’s all-time Bitcoin hashrate contribution accounts for more than 5% of the total BTC mining pools’ hashrate.

Bitcoin pool distribution over the past seven days. Source: BTC.com

BTC.com’s cyberattack investigation in China brings yet another crypto-related legal case for local authorities, which opted to put a blanket ban on all crypto operations last year. Despite the ban, China reemerged as the second-largest Bitcoin hashrate provider in January 2022 after briefly losing its global hashrate leadership in 2021.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Analyst Says Bitcoin Christmas Rally Imminent, Says This Chart Is One of the Most Impressive Out There

Analyst Says Bitcoin Christmas Rally Imminent, Says This Chart Is One of the Most Impressive Out There

A widely followed crypto strategist is predicting the upcoming Christmas holiday will bring a Bitcoin (BTC) rally. The pseudonymous analyst Kaleo tells his 552,400 Twitter followers that a festive rally is in store for the king crypto because no one is expecting it as the hash rate remains strong. “Santa rally [season] begins soon.” He […]

The post Analyst Says Bitcoin Christmas Rally Imminent, Says This Chart Is One of the Most Impressive Out There appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets

Bitcoin mining revenue lowest in two years, hash rate on the decline

The total Bitcoin mining revenue — block rewards and transaction fees — in U.S. dollars fell down to $11.67 million, a number last seen on Nov. 2, 2020, when Bitcoin’s trading price was around $13,500.

The revenue earned by Bitcoin (BTC) miners fell to two-year lows owing to poor market performance and a heavier computational demand amid rising network difficulty. However, an ongoing downturn in the Bitcoin hash rate over the past month has allowed miners to recoup losses.

The total Bitcoin mining revenue — block rewards and transaction fees — in U.S. dollars fell down to $11.67 million, a number last seen on Nov. 2, 2020, when Bitcoin’s trading price was around $13,500.

While the current market price of around $16,500 suggests an obvious increase in mining revenue, factors including greater mining difficulty and rising energy prices contribute to lower income in dollar terms.

Adding to the above, the difficulty of mining a Bitcoin block has skyrocketed to an all-time high of almost 37 trillion — forcing Bitcoin miners to spend more energy and computational power to stay competitive.

However, over the past three months, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network witnessed a steady decline. The hash rate stands at 225.9 exahash per second (EH/s), which fell 28.6% from its all-time of 316,7 EH/s on Oct. 31, 2022.

The hash rate is a security metric that helps protect the Bitcoin network from double-spending attacks. However, considering the grand scheme of things, temporary measures taken by the community include acquiring cheaper mining hardware and resettling in jurisdictions with low energy prices.

Related: Bitcoin miners look to software to help balance the Texas grid

New York City mayor Eric Adams believes that goal to make New York a crypto hub can be combined with statewide efforts to curb environmental costs related to crypto mining.

“I’m going to work with the legislators who are in support and those who have concerns, and I believe we are going to come to a great meeting place,” said Adams while revealing that the city will work with legislators to find a balance between the crypto industry development and legislative needs.

Pro-crypto advocate Bryan Steil named chair of Subcommittee on Digital Assets