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Lido DAO: Ethereum’s biggest Merge staker just jumped 30% — will LDO rally into September?

LDO price is up roughly 30% over the past day, gaining approximately 500% since mid-June.

Lido DAO (LDO) price edged higher on Aug. 3, primarily due to similar upside moves elsewhere in the crypto market and a rising euphoria around Ethereum's network upgrade in September.

On the daily chart, LDO's price reached an intraday high of $2.40 a day after bottoming out locally at $1.84. The sharp upside reversal amounted to nearly 30% gains in a day, suggesting traders' strengthening bullish bias for Lido DAO.

LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Lido DAO is a liquid staking solution for Ethereum by total value deposited. In other words, it allows users to participate in the running of Ethereum's upcoming proof-of-stake (PoS) chain in exchange for daily rewards. 

Ethereum's Ether token (ETH) has rallied by more than 90% since mid-June in part due to buzz around its blockchain's PoS upgrade called the Merge, expected in September. 

Lido DAO, the biggest Merge staking serve provider, has benefited from the craze simultaneously, with LDO, its governance token, rallying nearly 500% in the same period.

Notably, the total number of Ether staked into the Merge smart contract—also called ETH 2.0—via Lido has surged from 3.38 million on June 13 to 4.16 million on Aug. 3, according to DeFi Llama.

Total ETH deposited into Ethereum Merge contract via Lido DAO. Source: DeFi Llama

Charts hint at LDO price rally ahead

Furthermore, LDO's technicals appear skewed to the upside due to its "bull flag." This technical pattern typically appears during an uptrend, when the price consolidates lower inside a descending channel after a strong upside move.

LDO has been forming a similar pattern. On the daily chart, the token's price has been reversing course after undergoing a strong uptrend that topped at around $2.66 on July 28.

LDO/USD daily price chart featuring 'bull flag' setup. Source: TradingView

As a result, the Lido DAO token now eyes a break above its current descending channel range, similar to the upside move that followed its bull pennant formation in July.

As a rule, the bull flag's profit target comes to be at length equal to the size of the previous uptrend, called "flagpole," or $4 by September, up 65% from today's price.

Bull flag failure scenario

On the flip side, a bull flag's potential to reach its upside target stands at around 67%, according to research conducted by Samurai Trading Academy. Therefore, LDO's bull flag could fail if its price breaks below the pattern's lower trendline.

Related: ETH may consolidate as Merge excitement wears off, says expert

The trendline coincides with a support confluence made up of $1.91‚ which capped LDO's upside moves in late July, and the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave in the chart below) at around $1.80.

LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Thus, a bear flag breakdown, or a break below the support confluence, could have LDO eye the 50-day EMA (the red wave) near $1.43 as its downside target.

This level coincides with the 0.236 Fib line around $1.42, which served as a price floor in February and May.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Lido DAO: Ethereum’s biggest Merge staker soars 400% in July — but technicals flash warning

LDO has recently witnessed a growing bearish divergence between its price and key momentum oscillator.

Lido DAO (LDO) price has skyrocketed by roughly 400% month-to-date to reach $2.22 on July 28, its highest level in over two months.

LDO Mergified

LDO price has benefited majorly due to its association with Ethereum, the leading smart contract platform by total-value-locked (TVL) and market capitalization.

Notably, LDO serves as a governance token inside the Lido DAO ecosystem, a project that offers staking services for Ethereum.

The staking practice allows users to earn passive income without needing to sell their coins. It also helps validate transactions and secure the blockchain. In return, the protocol offers stakers rewards in the form of new tokens minted and fees collected.

Lido DAO working mechanism. Source: Official Website

Ethereum could become a full-fledged proof-of-stake blockchain by Sept. 19, the tentative date for the Merge. A successful transition to proof-of-stake could mean more demand for Lido DAO services in the future.

Lido DAO has remained the leading Ethereum staking service provider since August 2021. As of July 28, it had had put 4.14 million Ether (ETH) in the Merge’s official deposit contract Eth2 via its staking contracts.

ETH 2.0 total value staked by provider. Source: Glassnode

That somewhat explains LDO’s 140%-plus rally two weeks after the Merge’s release date announcement — from $1.29 on July 14 to $2.22 on July 28.

LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

False breakout risks

Despite solid fundamentals, LDO’s ongoing rally risks trapping bulls, primarily due to a growing divergence between its price and momentum.

On a daily chart, LDO’s price rise accompanies a drop in its relative strength index readings, suggesting that bulls may lose their grip on the market while letting bears take over.

Same clues emerge from the ongoing divergence between the rising LDO price and its falling volumes, as shown below.

LDO/USD daily price chart featuring price-RSI and price-volume divergence. Source: TradingView

Therefore, LDO market hints at an imminent correction, with its interim downside target at around $1.75, down 17% from the price on July 28. This level coincides with the 0.382 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph shown in the chart below.

LDO/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, LDO appears to have been breaking out of a “bull pennant,” a bullish continuation pattern whose profit targets are measured after adding its preceding uptrend’s height (flagpole) to the breakout point.

Related: Experts yet to explain massive spike in ETH active addresses

That puts Lido DAO en route to over $3.00 by September, which coincides with the 0.786 Fib line and potentially around the time of the Merge rollout. In other words, LDO could rally 45% from current price levels if the bull pennant pattern plays out. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Here’s One ‘Hell of a Trade,’ According to Ex-Goldman Sachs Executive Raoul Pal