Market volatility may increase if inflation data deviates from expectations, potentially influencing Fed rate decisions and financial stability.
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China's liquidity boost may temporarily uplift markets, but sustaining long-term investor confidence amid economic challenges remains uncertain.
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The potential reinvestment of $2.4 billion into crypto markets could bolster market confidence, but its gradual impact may temper immediate effects.
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FTX's court-approved repayment plan may restore some trust in crypto markets, but highlights the risks of centralized exchanges.
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Bitcoin struggles to overcome the $64,000 resistance as investors choose to invest in stocks and seek shelter in cash options amid socio-political uncertainty.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been unable to sustain levels above $66,000 since July 31, despite achieving a 5.2% gain between Oct. 3 and Oct. 7. Some analysts assert that Bitcoin benefits from the ever-growing United States federal debt; however, while this correlation appears valid, it has minimal influence on short-term price trends.
In reality, socio-political events seem to be the primary driver of Bitcoin’s limited upside, considering that the global monetary base (M2) has expanded from $104 trillion in June to $108 trillion in October, while Bitcoin was rejected multiple times at the $68,000 resistance level. This suggests that the rally to $64,000 is unlikely to be rooted in the US fiscal situation.
Bitcoin/USD vs. global monetary base (M2, billion). Source: TradingView
While some say that prediction markets are a risk to democracy, others think they could serve the public by offering valuable insights and risk management tools.
Despite recent confrontations with regulators, election markets can provide more accurate insights into public sentiment than polls, according to industry observers.
In May 2024, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a rule to ban derivatives used to bet on the outcome of US elections and other major real-world events.
The CFTC’s proposal drove US-based regulated prediction market platform Kalshi to take the commission to court. Columbia District Judge Jia Cobb rejected the CFTCs proposal, stating that “Kalshi’s contracts do not involve unlawful activity or gaming. They involve elections, which are neither.”
Bitcoin’s recovery above $62,000 is having a positive impact on altcoins, boosting prospects of a rally in APT, WIF, FTM and BGB.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to close the week above $62,500, well above the intra-week low of just under $60,000. This suggests buying at lower levels. Although the start to October, generally the strongest month of the year, has been slow, analysts expect things could pick up going forward.
One positive for the cryptocurrency markets is that the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 97% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis point in their Nov. 7 meeting. Expectations are that a rate cut would boost a risk-on sentiment.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
SUI gained 115% in a month after integrating USDC into its blockchain, which resulted in a parabolic surge in user and network activity.
Sui (SUI) price continues to rally on Oct. 4, gaining 115% over the past 30 days.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows SUI rose from a low of $0.742 on Sept. 2, climbing as much as 170% to a six-month high of $2, just 8.8% shy of its $2.18 all-time high reached on March 27.
SUI/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin price recaptures the $62,000 level as investor grow increasingly concerned about the fiscal health of the US
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 2.4% since retesting the $59,900 support level on Oct. 3, despite facing initial resistance at $62,000. The gains on Oct. 4 were primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, such as US employment data, expectations of economic stimulus in Japan, and growing concerns about the US financial system.
In the US, the economy is booming, but fiscal conditions deteriorated. Interestingly, the US dollar surged to a 50-day high against other major currencies, including the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen.
Historically, the relationship between the US dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin has been inversely correlated. However, this latest movement seems to defy that pattern.
Bitwise's ETF strategy may attract investors seeking reduced volatility and improved returns by dynamically balancing crypto and Treasuries.
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