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Bitcoin price rally to $42K driven by spot volumes, not BTC futures liquidations

Bitcoin futures data counters the assumption that BTC’s rally to $42,000 was primarily propelled by shorts liquidations. What is next for BTC?

In the past seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a whopping 14.5% surge, hitting a 20-month high at $41,130 by Dec.

The impact of the recent liquidations in Bitcoin futures markets

While the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trades USD-settled contracts for Bitcoin futures, where no physical Bitcoin changes hands, these futures markets undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping spot prices.

In the same seven-day period, a mere $200 million worth of BTC futures shorts were liquidated, representing only 1% of the total outstanding contracts.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest and volume, USD. Source: Coinglass

Even when focusing solely on the CME, which is known for potential trading volume inflation, its daily volume of $2.67 billion should have readily absorbed a $100 million 24-hour liquidation.

One could attempt to gauge the extent of liquidations at different price levels using tape reading techniques.

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Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Bitcoin price surge toward $40K boosts sentiment in KAS, RUNE, MNT and RNDR

Bitcoin’s recent rally toward $40,000 could further fuel traders' bullish sentiment for KAS, RUNE, MNT and RNDR.

Bitcoin (BTC) finally broke above the formidable resistance of $38,000 in the past week and marched closer to $40,000.

The major tailwind for Bitcoin is the expectation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund as early as January. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said in an interview with Bloomberg that the window for the approval for the spot Bitcoin ETF “seems to have been narrowed to January 8th, 9th, or 10th.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Several analysts expect Bitcoin’s price to soar after one or more spot Bitcoin ETFs are greenlighted.

Could Bitcoin's rise near $40,000 boost buying in altcoins? Let’s look at the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that may attract investors.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin rose and closed above the overhead resistance of $37,980 on Dec.

BTC/USDT daily chart.

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Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Ethereum price rallies toward key resistance but is ETH’s strength sustainable?

Ethereum’s price rally toward $2,100 is driven by new developments in the layer-2 space and investors’ anticipation of a spot BTC ETF.

Ether (ETH) is trading higher on Dec.

Ether 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingView

However, the current positive momentum is supported by several factors, including applications for spot ETFs and the expansion of Ethereum’s ecosystem, driven by layer-2 solutions.

ETH benefits from ETF expectations and negative news related to competing blockchains

A pivotal development occurred on Nov. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) initiating the review process for Fidelity’s spot Ether ETF proposal, filed on Nov.

Despite analysts predicting the SEC might delay its decision to early 2024, interim deadlines for applications by VanEck and ARK 21Shares on Dec.

The Ethereum network's growth, especially in transaction activity and layer-2 development, is noteworthy.

This growth is reflected in Ethereum's total value locked (TVL), which recently hit a two-month high of 13 million ETH, spurred by a 13% weekly gain in Spark and a 60% increase in Blast user deposits.

Ethereum network top DApps by TVL. Source: DefiLlama

In contrast, Tron, another leading blockchain in TVL terms, witnessed a 12% decline over the past ten days. Recent high-profile hacks linked to Tron's founder Justin Sun have also swayed investor confidence toward Ethereum.

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Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Price analysis 12/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, LINK, AVAX

Bitcoin price hit a new 2023 high on Dec.1 and multiple altcoins are following suit. Is the crypto market preparing for a Santa Claus rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied about 9% in November, with $38,000 proving to be a difficult obstacle to cross. Coinglass data shows that in the past five years, Bitcoin rose only in 2020, but the extent of the rise at 46.92% was impressive.

Entering into the new year, several analysts are bullish on Bitcoin. 28 research note, Standard Chartered said that the possibility of the earlier-than-expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could boost the price of Bitcoin to $100,000 before end-2024.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also sounded upbeat about Bitcoin while speaking to Bloomberg on Nov. Additionally, the Federal Reserve cutting rates may act as a further trigger that could send Bitcoin’s price near the all-time high by this time next year.

Could Bitcoin sustain above $38,000 and clear the path for a rally to $40,000, or will bears again play spoilsport?

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Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

IOTA makes 40%+ move after $100M ecosystem foundation announcement

IOTA price saw a high volume surge that took the altcoin to a near 1-year high, but are there reasons to support further upside?

IOTA, an open-source distributed ledger and cryptocurrency focused on the Internet of Things (IOT), saw its native IOTA token rally 43% on Nov.

According to a press release from the project, the foundation will be seeded with $100 million in IOTA tokens, which will be vested over a four-year period and traders clearly perceived the announcement and funding plan as a short-term bullish catalyst.

Historically, ecosystem and developer incentives by blockchain and DeFi protocols tend to attract liquidity to the project and boost market participants sentiment.

In August 2021, Avalanche’s AVAX token went on a 1,400% tear after the announcement of the Avalanche Rush DeFi incentive program.

A similar outcome was seen with Trader Joe’s JOE token in the months following December 2022 after the DeFi protocol announced plans to establish a presence on Arbitrum.

Currently, the Arbitrum ecosystem is hosting liquidity and developer incentives and these initiatives align with the recent 62% resurgence in ARB token price.

Was IOTA’s price move another sell-the-news event?

On Nov.

Traders often interpret funding rates and longs-to-shorts ratios as sentiment gauges and indicators of how active investors are positioned.

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Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

CME Bitcoin futures show investors betting on $40K BTC price

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium jumped to 34% on Nov. 28, leading analysts to speculate about an imminent spot BTC ETF approval.

The demand for institutional investors for Bitcoin (BTC) became evident on Nov. 10 as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures flipped Binance's BTC futures markets in terms of size. According to BTC derivatives metrics, those investors are showing strong confidence in Bitcoin's potential to break above the $40,000 mark in the short term.

CME Bitcoin futures open interest, USD. Source: Coinglass

CME's current Bitcoin futures open interest stands at $4.35 billion, the highest since November 2021 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000–a clear indication of heightened interest, but is it enough to justify further price gains?

CME's remarkable growth and the spot Bitcoin ETF speculation

The impressive 125% surge in CME's BTC futures open interest from $1.93 billion in mid-October is undoubtedly tied to the anticipation of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. However, it's important to note that there's no direct correlation between this movement and the actions of market makers or issuers. Cryptocurrency analyst JJcycles raised this hypothesis in a Nov. 26 social media post.

To avoid the high costs associated with futures contracts, institutional investors have various options. For instance, they could opt for CME Bitcoin options, which require less capital and offer similar leveraged long exposure. Additionally, regulated ETF and exchange-traded notes (ETN) trading in regions like Canada, Brazil, and Europe provide alternatives.

It seems somewhat naive to believe that the world’s largest asset managers would take risky gambles using derivatives contracts on a decision that depends on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commision (SEC) and is not expected until mid-January. Yet, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest is hard evidence that institutional investors are setting their sight in the cryptocurrency.

It might seem naive to think that the world's largest asset managers would take significant risks with derivatives contracts on a decision dependent on the SEC, expected only in mid-January. However, the undeniable growth in CME Bitcoin futures open interest underscores the increasing interest of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

CME's Bitcoin futures signaled extreme optimism on Nov. 28

While CME's Bitcoin futures activity has been steadily rising, the most noteworthy development has been the spike in the contracts' annualized premium (basis rate). In neutral markets, monthly futures contracts typically trade with a 5% to 10% basis rate to account for longer settlement times. This situation, known as contango, is not unique to cryptocurrency derivatives.

On Nov. 28, the annualized premium for CME Bitcoin futures surged from 15% to 34%, eventually stabilizing at 23% by day's end. A basis rate exceeding 20% indicates substantial optimism, suggesting that buyers were willing to pay a substantial premium to establish leveraged long positions. Currently, the metric stands at 14%, indicating that whatever caused the unusual movement is no longer a factor.

It's worth noting that during that 8-hour period on Nov. 28, Bitcoin's price rose from $37,100 to $38,200. However, it's challenging to determine whether this surge was driven by the spot market or futures contracts, as arbitrage between the two occurs in milliseconds. Instead of fixating on intraday price movements, traders should look to BTC option markets data for confirmation of heightened interest from institutional investors.

Related: Why is the crypto market down today?

If traders anticipate a decline in Bitcoin's price, a delta skew metric above 7% is expected, whereas periods of excitement typically result in a -7% skew.

Deribit 30-day BTC options skew. Source: Laevitas.ch

Over the past month, the 30-day BTC options 25% delta skew has consistently remained below the -7% threshold, standing near -10% on Nov. 28. This data supports the bullish sentiment among institutional investors using CME Bitcoin futures, casting doubts on the theory of whales accumulating assets ahead of a potential spot ETF approval. In essence, derivatives metrics do not indicate excessive short-term optimism.

If whales and market makers were genuinely 90% certain of SEC approval, in line with the expectations of Bloomberg’s ETF analysts, the BTC options delta skew would likely be much lower.

Nonetheless, with Bitcoin's price trading near $38,000, it appears that bulls will continue to challenge resistance levels as long as the hope for a spot ETF approval remains a driving force.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Price analysis 11/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON, LINK, AVAX

Bitcoin is struggling to sustain above $38,000, but the bulls have not given up much ground, which some analysts say increases the chance of a rally to $40,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to sustain above the overhead resistance of $38,000 for the second consecutive day and start the next leg of the uptrend. The excitement among market observers may have increased after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the applications of Franklin Templeton and Hashdex exchange-traded funds.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart speculated in a X (formerly Twitter) post that the SEC may have taken this step “to line every applicant up for potential approval by the Jan. 10, 2024 deadline.”

While many analysts believe that the ETF listing will be a watershed moment for Bitcoin, Genesis Trading head of derivatives Joshua Lim cautioned in a X post that traditional finance investors have already bought the rumor and may exit the trade close to the ETF announcement when retail tries to get in.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

However, the macroeconomic conditions in early 2024 may limit the downside. Pershing Square Capital Management CEO and founder Bill Ackman said in an interview with Bloomberg that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates sooner than people expect. He anticipates rate cuts to start in Q1 instead of the market expectations of the middle of the year.

Could Bitcoin and altcoins witness a shallow correction before resuming their uptrend?

Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin again rose above the $37,980 resistance on Nov. 28, but the bulls could not achieve a close above it. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the level.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The repeated retest of a resistance level tends to weaken it. If bulls sustain the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($36,820), the possibility of a rally to $40,000 improves. This level may act as a significant hurdle.

If bears want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly pull the price below the 20-day EMA and the uptrend line. That could start a decline to the solid support at 34,800. A strong bounce off this level may keep the BTC/USDT pair inside the large range between $34,800 and $38,000 for a while longer.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) again found support at the 20-day EMA ($2,006) on Nov. 27 and 28, indicating that the bulls view the dips as a buying opportunity.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are expected to face stiff resistance in the zone between $2,137 and $2,200, but if buyers do not give up much ground, it will increase the possibility of a rally above $2,200. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a large ascending triangle pattern. That could start a new uptrend, with a pattern target of $3,400.

Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears are trying to get back in the game. The pair may then slump to the 50-day SMA ($1,853).

BNB price analysis

The bears tried to yank BNB (BNB) below the $223 support on Nov. 27, but the bulls did not relent. This suggests demand at lower levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will have to force the price above the 20-day EMA ($235) to start a meaningful recovery. The BNB/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $265, where the bears may again offer a stiff resistance.

If the price again turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance. That will enhance the prospects of a fall below $223. If this level gives way, the pair may collapse to $203.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has been stuck between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The slightly downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.61) and the RSI near the midpoint do not indicate an advantage either to the bulls or the bears.

If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair may rise to $0.67. Instead, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA and skids below the 50-day SMA ($0.58), it will signal that bears are trying to seize control. The selling could accelerate further if the pair plunges below $0.56.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) snapped back from the 20-day EMA ($54.71) on Nov. 28, indicating that the sentiment remains positive.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price above the immediate resistance at $62.10. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could climb to the local high at $68. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to invalidate the head-and-shoulders pattern. The failure of a bearish pattern is a bullish sign. That may start a sharp rally in the pair to $85.

The $51 level remains the key support on the downside. A break and close below this level could start a deeper correction toward the 50-day SMA ($42.25).

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) slid to the 20-day EMA ($0.38) on Nov. 27, but the bulls held their ground. This suggests that lower levels are being aggressively bought.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The higher lows of the past few days improves the prospects of an upside breakout. If the bulls shove the price above $0.40, the ADA/USDT pair could pick up momentum and climb to $0.42 and later to $0.46.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA. That may hit stops of short-term traders and the pair may fall to the solid support at $0.34.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been repeatedly taking support at the 20-day EMA ($0.08), indicating that lower levels are being purchased.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Buyers will try to propel the price to $0.09 and next to $0.10, where they are likely to encounter selling by the bears.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA remains the key level to watch out for. If this level crumbles, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.07) and subsequently to the crucial support at $0.06.

Related: SoFi Technologies to cease crypto services by Dec. 19

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) has been trading above the 20-day EMA ($2.37) for the past few days, but the bulls are struggling to push the price to $2.59. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to gain the upper hand by yanking the price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the TON/USDT pair could decline to the psychological level of $2 and then to $1.89.

On the upside, the first hurdle is at $2.59. If buyers surmount this resistance, the pair could rally to $2.77. Sellers may offer stiff opposition in the zone between $2.77 and $2.90, but if bulls do not allow the price to dip below $2.59, a new uptrend to $4.03 could begin.

Chainlink price analysis

Chainlink (LINK) again found support at the 20-day EMA ($14.07) on Nov. 28, indicating that the bulls are vigorously guarding this level.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The LINK/USDT pair is likely to face selling at the $15.40 mark as the bears have successfully held this resistance during three previous attempts. If the price turns down from $15.40, it will increase the likelihood of a drop to $12.83.

On the contrary, if bulls drive the price above $15.40, the pair may challenge the local high at $16.60. The up-move could resume, and the pair may reach $18.30 if this level is surpassed.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($19.35) on Nov. 28, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will have to overcome the resistance at $22 to strengthen their position. The AVAX/USDT pair may then rise to $24.69. Sellers are likely to mount a strong defense at this level because if this resistance is taken out, the pair could travel to $28.50 as there is no major resistance in between.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $22, it will suggest that bears remain active at higher levels. The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the pair below $18.90.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Ethereum price falls as regulatory worries and pause in DApp use impact investor sentiment

Ether price struggles amid regulatory concerns and a drop in DApp usage.

Ether (ETH) is struggling to maintain the $2,000 support as of Nov. 27, following its third unsuccessful attempt in 15 days to surpass the $2,100 mark. This downturn in Ether's performance comes as the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment deteriorates, thus one needs to analyze whether 

It’s possible that recent developments, such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) signaling potential severe repercussions for Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, have contributed to the negative outlook.

In a filing on Nov. 22 to a Seattle federal court, U.S. prosecutors sought a review and reversal of a judge’s decision permitting CZ to return to the United Arab Emirates on a $175-million bond. The DOJ argues that Zhao poses an “unacceptable risk of flight and nonappearance” if allowed to leave the U.S. pending sentencing.

Ethereum DApps and DeFi face new challenges 

The recent $46 million KyberSwap exploit on Nov. 23 has further dampened demand for decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on Ethereum. Despite being previously audited by security experts, including a couple in 2023, the incident has heightened concerns about the safety of the overall DeFi industry. Fortunately for investors, the attacker expressed willingness to return some of the funds, yet the event underscored the sector's vulnerabilities.

Additionally, investor confidence was shaken by a Nov. 21 blog post from Tether, the firm behind the $88.7 billion stablecoin USD Tether (USDT). The post announced the U.S. Secret Service's recent integration into its platform and hinted at forthcoming involvement from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. 

The lack of details in the announcement has led to speculation about an increasingly stringent regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, especially with Binance facing heightened scrutiny and Tether's closer collaboration with authorities. These factors are likely contributing to Ether's underperformance, with various on-chain and market indicators suggesting a decline in ETH demand.

Investors become cautious as ETH on-chain data reflects weakness 

Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw only a $34 million inflow in the last week, according to CoinShares. This figure is a modest 10% of the inflow seen by equivalent Bitcoin (BTC) crypto funds during the same period. The competition between the two assets for spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S. makes this disparity particularly noteworthy.

Moreover, the current 7-day average annualized yield of 4.2% on Ethereum staking is less appealing compared to the 5.25% return offered by traditional fixed-income assets. This disparity led to a significant $349 million outflow from Ethereum staking in the previous week, as reported by StakingRewards.

High transaction costs continue to be a challenge, with the seven-day average transaction fee standing at $7.40. This expense has adversely affected the demand for decentralized applications (DApps), leading to a 21.8% decline in DApps volume on the network in the last week, as per DappRadar.

Top Ethereum Dapps by volume, USD. Source: DappRadar

Notably, while most Ethereum DeFi applications saw a significant drop in activity, competing chains like BNB Chain and Solana experienced an 11% increase and stable activity, respectively.

Related: Changpeng Zhao may not leave the US pending court review, says judge

Consequently, Ethereum network protocol fees have decreased for four consecutive days, amounting to $5.4 million on Nov. 26, compared to a daily average of $10 million between Nov. 20 and Nov. 23, as reported by DefiLlama. This trend could potentially create a negative spiral, driving users towards competing chains in search of better yields.

Ether's current price pullback on Nov. 27 reflects growing concerns over regulatory challenges and the potential impact of exploits and sanctions on stablecoins used in DeFi applications.

The increasing involvement of the DOJ and FBI with Tether elevates the systemic risk for liquidity pools and the entire oracle-based pricing mechanism. While there's no immediate cause for panic selling or fears of a drop to $1,800, the lackluster demand from institutional investors, as indicated by ETP flows, is certainly not a positive sign for the market.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy

Bitcoin traders’ bullish bias holds firm even as BTC price dips to $37K

BTC's correction reveals a disconnect between pro traders' confidence and retail investors' skepticism amid regulatory shifts.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached $38,000 on Nov. 24 but faced formidable resistance at the price level. On Nov. 27, Bitcoin price traded below $37,000, which is unchanged from a week ago. 

What is eye catching is the unwavering strength of BTC derivatives, which signals that bulls remain steadfast with their intentions.

An intriguing development is unfolding in China as Tether (USDT) trades below its fair value in the local currency, the Yuan. This discrepancy often arises due to differing expectations between professional traders engaged in derivatives and retail clients involved in the spot market.

How have regulations impacted Bitcoin derivatives?

To gauge the exposure of whales and arbitrage desks using Bitcoin derivatives, one must assess BTC options volume. By examining the put (sell) and call (buy) options, we can estimate the prevailing bullish or bearish sentiment.

Deribit BTC options put-to-call volume ratio. Source: Laevitas.ch

Since Nov. 22, put options have consistently lagged behind call options in volume, by an average of 40%. This suggests a diminished demand for protective measures—a surprising development given the intensified regulatory scrutiny following Binance's plewith the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) lawsuit against Kraken exchange.

While investors may not foresee disruptions to Binance's services, the likelihood of further regulatory actions against exchanges serving U.S. clients has surged. Additionally, individuals who previously relied on obscuring their activity might now think twice, as the DoJ gains access to historical transactions.

Furthermore, it's uncertain whether the arrangement struck by Changpeng “CZ” Zhao with authorities will extend to other unregulated exchanges and payment gateways. In summary, the repercussions of recent regulatory actions remain uncertain, and the prevailing sentiment is pessimistic, with investors fearing additional constraints and potential actions targeting market makers and stablecoin issuers.

To determine if the Bitcoin options market is an anomaly, let's examine BTC futures contracts, specifically the monthly ones—preferred by professional traders due to their fixed funding rate in neutral markets. Typically, these instruments trade at a 5% to 10% premium to account for the extended settlement period.

Bitcoin 30-day futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Between Nov. 24 and Nov. 26, the BTC futures premium flirted with excessive optimism, hovering around 12%. However, by Nov. 27, it dipped to 9% as Bitcoin's price tested the $37,000 support—a neutral level but close to the bullish threshold.

Retail traders are less optimistic after the ETF hopium fades

Moving on to retail interest, there is a growing sense of apathy due to the absence of a short-term positive trigger, such as the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The SEC is not expected to make its final decision until January and February 2024.

The USDT premium relative to the Yuan hit its lowest point in over four months at OKX exchange. This premium serves as a gauge of demand among China-based retail crypto traders and measures the gap between peer-to-peer trades and the U.S. dollar.

Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX

Since Nov. 20, USDT has been trading at a discount, suggesting either a significant desire to liquidate cryptocurrencies or heightened regulatory concerns. In either case, it's far from a positive indicator. Furthermore, the last instance of a 1% positive premium occurred 30 days ago, indicating that retail traders aren't particularly enthused about the recent rally toward $38,000.

Related: What’s next for Binance’s Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao?

In essence, professional traders remain unfazed by short-term corrections, regardless of the regulatory landscape. Contrary to doomsday predictions, Binance's status remains unaffected, and the lower trading volume on unregulated exchanges may boost the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

The disparity in time horizons may explain the divide between professional traders and retail investors' optimism. Additionally, recent regulatory actions could pave the way for increased participation by institutional investors, offering a potential upside in the future.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Yield Chasers Propel Ethena’s USDE to $4.12B Market Cap in the Bull Market Frenzy