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Bitcoin tops $40K for first time in 19 months, Matrixport eyes $125K in 2024

Bitcoin has hit a 19-month high, and Matrixport predicts it will keep climbing well into next year.

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached the $40,000 level for the first time since April 2022, climbing around 2% in 24 hours.

Bitcoin surged from under $39,500 to strike above $40,000 on Dec.

It also marks a new year-to-date high for Bitcoin, which is up over 140% since Jan.

The price of Bitcoin over the last 12 months, which has gone from under $17,000. Source: CoinGecko

In a Nov. 30 note, Matrixport predicted that Bitcoin would hit over $60,000 by April next year and $125,000 by the end of 2024.

“The years when Bitcoin mining rewards were halved were generally bullish,” Matrixport explained.

"As miners tended to hoard Bitcoins before each halving, prices increased by +200%, which would project Bitcoin reaching $125,000," Matrixport said.

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Stablecoins not the target in BUSD crackdown: Matrixport head of research

Crypto financial service Matrixport’s head of research believes regulators are not targeting all stablecoins with the regulatory crackdown on BUSD issuer Paxos.

Crypto financial services Matrixport's head of research believes the recent scrutiny of Paxos and its Binance USD (BUSD) token is not a direct attack on stablecoins themselves. 

In a Feb. 14 analysis, Matrixport's Markus Thielen suggested that Paxos Trust Company, the issuer of the Binance USD (BUSD), may not have been stringent enough with its oversight of the token.

He added that the issue "does not appear to be around stablecoins" in itself.

"Paxos had violated its obligation to conduct tailored, periodic risk assessment and due diligence of Binance and Paxos-issued BUSD customers," Thielen argued.

On Feb. 13, the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) ordered Paxos to halt the issuance of BUSD "as a result of several unresolved issues related to Paxos’ oversight of its relationship with Binance"

Paxos also recently confirmed that on Feb. 3, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent a Wells notice to the stablecoin issuer over its alleged failure to register the offering under federal securities laws.

Thielen notes that BUSD has issued $11 billion on Ethereum, but $4.8 billion is also accounted for to be issued on the Binance Smart Chain, in a tokenized version of BUSD.

"It appears that NYDFS is now worried that the $4.8 billion might not be properly backed or have had issues with being 1:1 backed," he said.

However,Paxos has stated as recently as Feb. 13, that, “BUSD tokens issued by Paxos Trust have and always will be backed 1:1 with US dollar-denominated reserves, fully segregated and held in bankruptcy remote accounts.” 

In a statement to Cointelegraph, Binance reiterated this stance, saying, "BUSD is a 1 to 1 backed stablecoin that is one of the most transparent stablecoins in existence.”

Thielen notes some of the regulatory actions could have also been sparked by the Jan. 24 incident when Binance mixed customer funds with collateral.

The recent actions against BUSD have still caused some to believe that other stablecoins could be in trouble.

Paxos recently stated that besides the current issue around BUSD, “there are unequivocally no other allegations against Paxos.”

Meanwhile, USD Coin (USDC) issuer Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy Dante Disparte told Cointelegraph:

"Circle maintains that USDC is a regulated dollar digital currency issued as stored value under U.S. money transmission law."

"Facts and circumstances in any type of regulatory action like this are all different, as are the structural and regulatory considerations with each of the cryptocurrencies that are in circulation around the world," Disparte added.

Related: Paxos ‘categorically disagrees’ with the SEC that BUSD is a security

Thielen has however urged the industry not to be overly concerned about the future of BUSD.

"Binance has shot itself a little bit in the foot here, but they are working on it and it should be resolved. So should we be really worried?" Thielen said.

"I don't think so. Is the peg breaking? NO. We are no longer in a bear market where you worry about downside, in bull markets, you focus on the upside," he added.

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US institutions account for 85% of Bitcoin buying in ‘very positive sign’ — Matrixport

Matrixport’s head of research and strategy suggests the industry will soon see layer 1 and other altcoins outperforming relative to Bitcoin.

Institutional investors are “not giving up on crypto,” with recent data pointing to as much as 85% of Bitcoin buying being the result of American institutional players, according to Matrixport’s chief strategist. 

Markus Thielen, the head of research and strategy at the financial services firm, told Cointelegraph the evidence shows that institutions are not “giving up on crypto” and is an indicator that we might be entering a new “crypto bull market now.”

The data was shared in a Jan. 27 report from Matrixport, which suggests that it can be distinguished whether a digital asset is more favorable by retail or institutional investors at any given time based on whether that asset is performing well in the United States or Asian trading hours.

The report stated that if an asset that trades 24 hours “performs well” during U.S. trading hours, it indicates that U.S. institutions are buying it, while an asset that sees growth during Asian trading hours indicates that Asian retail investors are buying it.

The report cited that Bitcoin (BTC) is up 40% this year, with 35% of those returns occurring during U.S. trading hours, meaning there is an “85% contribution” associated with U.S.-based investors, indicating that U.S. institutions are buyers of Bitcoin right now.

Thielen added that previous data shows that institutions typically first start buying Bitcoin before investing in other cryptocurrencies. He noted:

“If history is any guide, then we should see the outperformance of layer 1 and altcoins relative to Bitcoin.”

While the report highlighted that news regarding other projects positively impacted token prices such as Lido and Aptos, the crypto rally only started once the U.S. inflation data was released on Jan. 12.

It was also mentioned that Ethereum (ETH) appears to be performing well during U.S. hours, indicating “institutional flows” into the cryptocurrency, however Aptos is doing well around the clock.

“Aptos is seeing a mix of strong returns during U.S. trading hours AND during Asia trading hours.”

The report concluded by stating that this “should be a very positive sign for Bitcoin” as institutional adoption continues.

Related: Data shows pro Bitcoin traders want to feel bullish, but the rally to $23K wasn’t enough

In earlier comments to Cointelegraph, economist Lyn Alden believes that Bitcoin is currently playing “a bit of catch-up,” getting back to where it would have been without the FTX collapse occurring.

Alden warned that there is “considerable danger ahead” for the second half of 2023, citing liquidity conditions being “good right now” in part because of the U.S as a major factor.

Alden explained that as the U.S. Treasury is drawing down its cash balance to keep the country’s debt levels low, it pushes “liquidity into the financial system.”

Meanwhile, popular trader and market commentator TechDev posted a Twitter update on Jan. 26 showing the price correlation between Bitcoin and Gold, stating that if Bitcoin continues to follow the price of Gold, it might even “crack the $50,000 mark.”

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You can now search ETH addresses on Google — But what about Bitcoin?

While Google’s feature appears to be a good thing for crypto adoption, a CIO says a move from Apple would make the “crypto industry go from 100 miles an hour to 250 miles in a heartbeat.”

Google’s latest crypto feature enables some Ethereum wallet addresses to have their ETH balances tracked straight off of the Google search engine — saving the need to make the trip to Etherscan. 

The feature was first made public by the Principal of Google Ventures Han Hua in an Oct. 11 Twitter post.

But Cointelegraph’s attempt to search for a Bitcoin address revealed a no-show on Google. Angel Investor Stephen Cole was not impressed, tweeting "Does Google not know about Bitcoin?"

Cointelegraph also tried several different Ethereum addresses — most of which didn’t work. So the functionality is very limited at present and may improve over time.

Nonetheless, recent efforts suggest Google is playing a key role in on-boarding internet users to the world of blockchain-based services and Web3.

The new feature comes in addition to Google’s partnership with crypto exchange Coinbase on Oct. 11 to allow its customers to pay for cloud services in crypto, which is expected to take effect in early 2023.

Google also got in on the Ethereum Merge hype by embedding a countdown ticker until the point at which Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Related: Near Protocol partners with Google Cloud to support Web3 devs

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Chief Investment Officer Markus Thielen of digital asset services platform Matrixport said we shouldn’t be surprised by Google’s efforts in the Web3 space as both commercial banks and Web2 companies continue to do an “enormous amount of work in the background,” adding:

“This crypto winter is clearly different as established firms continue to deploy their balance sheet [to crypto investments] and might even leapfrog the incumbents.”

But while Google’s efforts are welcome, Thielen believes a mass adoption event for Web3 could come “when the iPhone can be used as a crypto wallet.”

“If and when this happens, the crypto industry will go from 100 miles an hour to 250 miles in a heartbeat,” he added.

Community reaction

Vittorio Rivabella, Developer Relations Manager of Web3 development platform Alchemy said the news of Google’s new Ethereum address search feature was “Bullish.”

However, SadPanda.blockchain, the former Editor in Chief at Web3ArtBlog.NFT, wasn’t so thrilled with the news, arguing that Google “will sell our blockchain data to advertisers in order to target us via our wallets!”

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