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Bitcoin is crashing, but options markets are calling for $111K BTC price by February

$2.9 billion in Bitcoin liquidations happened in December, but the flush out is preparing BTC for new highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced two episodes of $1 billion or higher futures market liquidations since Dec. 5, albeit its price began and ended the period near $97,000. The latest event moved Bitcoin from $101,430 on Dec. 8 to $94,200 on Dec. 9, a crash that wiped out $2.9 billion in leveraged positions.

Despite the short-term negative impact on sentiment, the Bitcoin derivatives market is presently in a much healthier state, which is precisely what’s needed for a surprise rally to a new all-time high. Traders are less likely to buy during signs of overheated markets, such as an excessive perpetual contract funding rate.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

Ether poised to outperform Bitcoin: Bybit

Bybit’s November market report points toward Ethereum gaining traction as Bitcoin dominance fades.

Ether (ETH) outshined Bitcoin (BTC) in the cryptocurrency spot and derivative markets after the United States Nov. 5 presidential election and keeps gaining momentum, according to a Dec. 2 report by crypto exchange Bybit.

In November, Ether “gained significant traction against BTC, as reflected by the sharp drops in the ratio between their spot prices,” Bybit said in its November 2024 Volatility Review, co-created by market researcher Block Scholes.

Growing demand for ETH options also indicates “[t]raders are increasingly favoring ETH,” Bybit said in a statement. 

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

Bitcoin price weakens, but BTC derivatives remain healthy

Bitcoin derivatives reflect traders' confidence in the market and suggest the current price action is just a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to rally above $98,000 from Nov. 25 to Dec. 2, frustrating investors despite achieving a 38% monthly gain. Market participants worry that prolonged consolidation below the $100,000 psychological barrier could embolden bearish strategies to suppress BTC's price.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Derivatives markets suggest resilience, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged positions compared to the BTC spot price. While lower than the 40% levels typically observed during strong bull runs, the current premium reflects healthy bullish demand and does not indicate excessive optimism.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

Grayscale Unveils Game-Changing Bitcoin ETF Options Strategy 

Grayscale Unveils Game-Changing Bitcoin ETF Options Strategy Grayscale Investments has announced plans to introduce options trading for its spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), taking a page from Blackrock’s recent success with bitcoin ETF options. The options trading will begin on Wednesday morning. This initiative is designed to leverage a covered call strategy to generate additional income. Both the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and […]

Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF options see ‘unheard of’ $1.9B traded on first day

Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that “$1.9 billion is unheard of for day one” as the debut day for options on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw huge volumes.

Options contracts on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), saw nearly $2 billion in total exposure traded, which could have pushed Bitcoin to its new high of over $94,000.

“Final tally of IBIT’s first day of options is just shy of $1.9 billion in notional exposure traded via 354,000 contracts,” Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart reported on Nov. 20. 

“These options were almost certainly part of the move to the new Bitcoin all-time highs today,” he added. Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new peak of $94,105 on Coinbase on Nov. 19, per TradingView.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

Bitcoin to $100K: What will milestone mean for derivatives markets?

Bitcoin analysts and traders have long dreamed of a $100,000 BTC price, but what would the achievement mean for derivatives markets? 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential climb to the $100,000 price level has captivated investors for years. While retail participants often celebrate such psychological milestones, the key impact should come from institutional adoption and advancements in the Bitcoin derivatives markets. 

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

Futures open interest on Bitcoin presently totals 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase in two months, signaling growing interest in derivatives. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, this open interest would hit $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of its $2 trillion market cap. This contrasts with the S&P 500, where $817 billion in futures open interest equals only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

Hitting and holding $100K Bitcoin price depends on $11.8B end-of-year BTC options expiry

Bitcoin’s ability to reach and hold the $100,000 level will be influenced by the upcoming $11.8 billion options expiry.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market is preparing for the year-end $11.8 billion options expiry, set for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. Recent data reveals a strong advantage for call (buy) options, though bears could significantly limit their losses by keeping Bitcoin’s price below $75,000.

Aggregate Bitcoin options open interest for Dec. 27. Source: Laevitas.ch

As of now, the total open interest for call options is $7.9 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $3.92 billion—underscored by Bitcoin’s 29% rise since October, which has likely rendered most put options worthless.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

What happens to Bitcoin price if Microsoft shareholders vote to buy BTC?

Microsoft’s upcoming vote on whether or not to build a Bitcoin position is just another sign of corporations’ and institutional investors’ growing interest in BTC.

On Oct. 24, a filing by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed an unexpected item on the agenda for its upcoming annual shareholder meeting on Dec. 10. 

Alongside routine votes—such as the election of directors, the ratification of its independent auditor, and reports on AI misinformation—one proposal stood out: an "Assessment of Investment in Bitcoin." Interestingly, Microsoft's board recommended shareholders vote against it. 

As of its second-quarter 2024 financial report, Microsoft held $76 billion in cash and equivalents. If shareholders pushed the company to allocate even 10% of that to Bitcoin, it would represent a massive $7.6 billion investment.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

SEC Greenlights Bitcoin Options ETFs for New York Stock Exchange and CBOE

SEC Greenlights Bitcoin Options ETFs for New York Stock Exchange and CBOE

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is greenlighting Bitcoin (BTC) options exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for two major US exchanges. In separate statements, the regulatory agency says it’s approving the bids from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to list options contracts for BTC-based ETFs. According to the […]

The post SEC Greenlights Bitcoin Options ETFs for New York Stock Exchange and CBOE appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes

SEC approves NYSE, CBOE listings of Bitcoin options ETFs

Traders believe that the approval of options for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will inject much-needed liquidity into the markets.

On Oct. 18, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved applications from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to list the long-anticipated options for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Options trading will now be available for the 11 approved ETF providers on the NYSE, including Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, ARK21Shares Bitcoin ETF, Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF, Franklin Bitcoin ETF, VanEck Bitcoin Trust, WisdomTree's Bitcoin Fund, Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, and the Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange also filed an application to list options for the spot Bitcoin ETF providers in August 2024 through a proposed rule change. This change in regulatory policy puts Bitcoin ETF options in the same category as other commodity-based ETFs, which the SEC approved to be listed on the CBOE, with the exception of Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust.

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Despite Bitcoin’s 10% Drop, Over $20M in Old Coins Find New Homes