The financial services titan CME Group says it’s launching new futures contracts based on the smart contract platform Solana (SOL) in March. In a new press release, the CME Group announces that it will be rolling out two Solana-based futures contract options on March 17th – a micro-sized one worth 25 SOL and a macro-sized […]
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Bitcoin futures data suggests bulls are ready to push BTC price back above $100,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 6.5% since its $92,458 low on Dec. 23 but it failed to surpass the $98,000 resistance level. Traders showed renewed confidence after a steep 14.5% correction that followed the $108,275 all-time high on Dec. 17.
Bitcoin derivatives maintained a neutral-to-bullish stance, suggesting that the sharp price volatility did not significantly impact market sentiment. This positioning supports the likelihood of a sustainable rally above $105,000.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
$2.9 billion in Bitcoin liquidations happened in December, but the flush out is preparing BTC for new highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced two episodes of $1 billion or higher futures market liquidations since Dec. 5, albeit its price began and ended the period near $97,000. The latest event moved Bitcoin from $101,430 on Dec. 8 to $94,200 on Dec. 9, a crash that wiped out $2.9 billion in leveraged positions.
Despite the short-term negative impact on sentiment, the Bitcoin derivatives market is presently in a much healthier state, which is precisely what’s needed for a surprise rally to a new all-time high. Traders are less likely to buy during signs of overheated markets, such as an excessive perpetual contract funding rate.
Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass
Bybit’s November market report points toward Ethereum gaining traction as Bitcoin dominance fades.
Ether (ETH) outshined Bitcoin (BTC) in the cryptocurrency spot and derivative markets after the United States Nov. 5 presidential election and keeps gaining momentum, according to a Dec. 2 report by crypto exchange Bybit.
In November, Ether “gained significant traction against BTC, as reflected by the sharp drops in the ratio between their spot prices,” Bybit said in its November 2024 Volatility Review, co-created by market researcher Block Scholes.
Growing demand for ETH options also indicates “[t]raders are increasingly favoring ETH,” Bybit said in a statement.
Bitcoin derivatives reflect traders' confidence in the market and suggest the current price action is just a consolidation phase.
Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to rally above $98,000 from Nov. 25 to Dec. 2, frustrating investors despite achieving a 38% monthly gain. Market participants worry that prolonged consolidation below the $100,000 psychological barrier could embolden bearish strategies to suppress BTC's price.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
Derivatives markets suggest resilience, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged positions compared to the BTC spot price. While lower than the 40% levels typically observed during strong bull runs, the current premium reflects healthy bullish demand and does not indicate excessive optimism.
Grayscale Investments has announced plans to introduce options trading for its spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), taking a page from Blackrock’s recent success with bitcoin ETF options. The options trading will begin on Wednesday morning. This initiative is designed to leverage a covered call strategy to generate additional income. Both the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and […]
Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that “$1.9 billion is unheard of for day one” as the debut day for options on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw huge volumes.
Options contracts on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), saw nearly $2 billion in total exposure traded, which could have pushed Bitcoin to its new high of over $94,000.
“Final tally of IBIT’s first day of options is just shy of $1.9 billion in notional exposure traded via 354,000 contracts,” Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart reported on Nov. 20.
“These options were almost certainly part of the move to the new Bitcoin all-time highs today,” he added. Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new peak of $94,105 on Coinbase on Nov. 19, per TradingView.
Bitcoin analysts and traders have long dreamed of a $100,000 BTC price, but what would the achievement mean for derivatives markets?
Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential climb to the $100,000 price level has captivated investors for years. While retail participants often celebrate such psychological milestones, the key impact should come from institutional adoption and advancements in the Bitcoin derivatives markets.
Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass
Futures open interest on Bitcoin presently totals 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase in two months, signaling growing interest in derivatives. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, this open interest would hit $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of its $2 trillion market cap. This contrasts with the S&P 500, where $817 billion in futures open interest equals only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap.
Bitcoin’s ability to reach and hold the $100,000 level will be influenced by the upcoming $11.8 billion options expiry.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) market is preparing for the year-end $11.8 billion options expiry, set for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. Recent data reveals a strong advantage for call (buy) options, though bears could significantly limit their losses by keeping Bitcoin’s price below $75,000.
Aggregate Bitcoin options open interest for Dec. 27. Source: Laevitas.ch
As of now, the total open interest for call options is $7.9 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $3.92 billion—underscored by Bitcoin’s 29% rise since October, which has likely rendered most put options worthless.
Microsoft’s upcoming vote on whether or not to build a Bitcoin position is just another sign of corporations’ and institutional investors’ growing interest in BTC.
On Oct. 24, a filing by Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revealed an unexpected item on the agenda for its upcoming annual shareholder meeting on Dec. 10.
Alongside routine votes—such as the election of directors, the ratification of its independent auditor, and reports on AI misinformation—one proposal stood out: an "Assessment of Investment in Bitcoin." Interestingly, Microsoft's board recommended shareholders vote against it.
As of its second-quarter 2024 financial report, Microsoft held $76 billion in cash and equivalents. If shareholders pushed the company to allocate even 10% of that to Bitcoin, it would represent a massive $7.6 billion investment.
